The meaning of risk-taking – key concepts and dimensions

Dealing with and taking risks are central issues of current societies which had been characterised by heightened debates and conflicts about risk (Beck, Giddens). Even though there is good knowledge available, policies and strategies to reduce people’s risk-taking are often less successful than expected. Experts are puzzled about common people not following good advice presuming people’s lack of understanding. While this might be true in many cases a growing body of research shows, rather than being merely ignorant or misinformed, people often have good knowledge when taking risks. A growing body of research provides knowledge about the complexities, dynamics and contradictions of people’s risk-taking. However, there have been little attempts to systematise this body of knowledge. This article contributes to such an enterprise. It suggests distinguishing between different motives for risk-taking, different levels of control and a number of ways how reflexivity about risk is rooted in the social realm. It also explores how risk-taking is part of developing and protecting a valued identity. The article concludes, across different domains there is good evidence for how structural and cultural forces combine and shape risk-taking while people take risks to develop a valued identity and to protect it. Advancing expert’s understanding of risk-taking and change people’s risk-taking require considering and approaching the larger social contexts and individual risk practices in everyday life.     

福建省发展地方优势特色农产品保险的实践和思考

发展现代农业,就必须解决农业生产面临的自然灾害和市场价格波动风险,就需要大力发展农业保险分散风险.当前,一些地方优势特色农产品保险发展还不够充分,不能有效分散地方优势特色农产品自然灾害和市场价格波动风险,成为制约地方优势农产品持续发展的一个因素.在供给侧,农业保险经营主体能力有待提高,保障的总体水平仍然偏低,保险产品种类少,产品设计重物不重人.在需求侧也存在一些地方政府重视不够,投入不足,农民投保意愿不强等短板.为此,建议供需两侧同步发力,共同推动地方优势特色农产品保险高质量发展,更好分散地方优势特色农业生产经营风险.供给侧注重保险产品创新、保险机构服务能力提升,需求侧增加财政投入、调动农民参保缴费积极性.     

The action suited to the word? Use of the framework of risk information seeking to understand risk-related behaviors

Although a growing body of risk communication research focuses on how people process risk information, one question that is overlooked is how the seeking of information contributes to behavioral adaptation toward the risk issue. How are people’s behavioral responses to risks affected by the search for risk information? Building on the Framework of Risk Information Seeking (FRIS), this paper reports on two studies that focus on the experimental testing of several of the basic FRIS assumptions. In study 1, a 2 (involvement: high vs. low)?×?2 (risk perception: high vs. low) between-subjects experiment was conducted to test the assumption that higher levels of involvement and risk perception stimulate the intention to seek additional risk information as well as the actual risk information. Study 2 is a partial replication of study 1. In study 2, a 2 (involvement: high vs. low)?×?2 (fear appeal: present vs. absent)?×?2 (response efficacy: high vs. low) between-subjects experiment was conducted to test how varying the levels of involvement, risk perception, and response efficacy influence actual and intended information seeking, as well as the intention to adopt risk-mitigating actions. The results showed that the high-involvement, high-risk perception, high-response efficacy group was most likely to actually seek information and make behavioral changes. The results are in accordance with basic FRIS assumptions. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

Corporate Insurance Strategy: The Case of British Petroleum

The authors provide a fundamental rethinking of how corporations should evaluate various kinds of risks and risk management solutions—a rethinking that leads to a major shift in British Petroleum's approach to insuring property and casualty losses, product liability suits, and other insurable events. Conventional corporate practice—and until the early 1990s (when this article was written) the longstanding policy of BP and most large oil companies—was to insure against large losses while self‐insuring against smaller ones. In this article, the authors explain why BP has chosen to go against the conventional wisdom and instead buy insurance for mainly smaller losses while self‐insuring larger ones. The BP decision came down to factors affecting the market supply of insurance as well as the corporate demand for it. On the demand side, the authors demonstrate that the primary source of demand for insurance by large public companies is not, as standard insurance textbooks assume, to transfer risk away from the corporation's owners. Because corporate stockholders and bondholders effectively manage the effects of such risks by diversifying their own portfolios, the corporate demand for insurance in BP's case stems from the insurers' comparative advantage in evaluating and monitoring BP's smaller risks and in processing claims. On the supply side, the authors explain why the capacity of insurance companies and markets to underwrite very large or highly specialized exposures—when compared to the industry expertise and financial resources of companies like BP—is quite limited, and likely to remain so. Since premiums would be experience‐rated and prior years' losses simply rolled into the following years' premiums, there would be no effective transfer of risk, and so no gain to BP from buying insurance.     

The end of risk communication as we know it

According to the US National Research Council, risk communication ought to be viewed as a dialogue among people conducted to help facilitate a more accurate understanding of risks and, related, the decisions they may make to manage them. But, in spite of this widely accepted perspective on risk communication, there is often a disconnect between how it is defined and how it is practiced. Rather than focusing on a true dialogue aimed at improving risk assessments and risk management decisions, risk communication is often viewed as means of simply educating people about existing risk assessments so that, on their own, they might make (or contribute to) better risk management decisions. More worrisome, risk communication is still often seen as a means of ‘correcting’ misconceptions about, or perceptions of, risk; in other words, risk communication is used as a vehicle for attempting to align lay perceptions with their expertly assessed severity. In this paper, I argue that risk communication must become more decision-focused if it is to meet the objectives set forth – in 1989 – by the US National Research Council.     

Commentary on Hassenzahl's ‘The effect of uncertainty on “risk rationalizing” decisions’

Contemporary societies have been characterized as risk societies. While considerable research on individualized risk and risk management exists, voluntary risk taking has so far found less attention. This article explores the tensions between voluntary risk-taking at the individual level and risk management at the organizational level by analysing aid work as edgework. Between 1990s and 2009, the number of attacks on aid personnel including killing, kidnapping and armed attacks has steadily increased. Security and how to deal with it has become a central concern of aid organizations. While the increased insecurity of aid workers and the responses of aid organizations to security threats have been widely documented, less attention has been paid to the role risk-taking plays in aid workers lives. Edgework is a form of voluntary risk-taking and has been primarily studied in the context of risk-taking leisure such as action and adventure sport. Aid work encompasses a wide range of interventions, including development and emergency relief. Depending on assignment and region, people working in the aid industry find themselves in high- or low-risk situations. Based on biographical interviews with people working in aid, this article addresses motivations for getting involved in aid work and experiences of danger in Aidland. Contrasting individualized risks with security procedures of aid organizations, my article contributes to a better understanding of risk-taking behaviour in general and in the context of overseas aid in particular.     

Improving lay understanding of exposure to electromagnetic fields; the effect of information on perception of and responses to risk

Studies show that, although many people are concerned about the potential health risks of being exposed to electromagnetic fields (EMF), lay understanding of exposure, an important determinant of risk perceptions and responses, is limited. In an online consumer panel (n = 245), we tested the effects of providing people with information about EMF on lay understanding of exposure, and on perceptions and responses to risks, using an experimental 2?×?2?×?2 design. Providing people with specific information explaining the distance–exposure relationship, clarifying EMF policy, or specifying personal exposure management options actions resulted in a better understanding of exposure. We demonstrated that information provision as such had no effects on concerns about EMF nor on perceived risk of personal sources, i.e. mobile phones, but lowered perception of risk of public sources, i.e. mobile phone base stations and high-voltage power lines. In addition, information explaining the distance–exposure relationship in combination with policy information resulted in reduced self-reported risk-aversive responses. Moreover, participants who understood more about exposure in relation to the distance to the source showed lower perceptions of risk, were less likely to restrict their own exposure, and more likely to accept new installations of public sources of EMF in their neighborhood. In contrast, awareness that exposure was mainly determined by personal use of EMF sources corresponded with higher perceptions of risk from personal sources and a higher likelihood to restrict one’s own exposure. Our findings provide focal points for improving communication on EMF. In particular, we suggest to include information clarifying the distance–exposure relationship to improve understanding of exposure.     

The effect of emotion and time pressure on risk decision-making

Emotion and time pressure are two important factors affecting risk decision-making. This study explored the interaction of emotion and time pressure on risk decision-making by adopting 3 (emotion state: positive emotion, negative emotion, and control group)?×?2 (time constraint: high time constraint and no time constraint) between-subject experiment design. The results showed that (1) both emotion and time pressure exerted significant effect on risk decision-making (generally, positive emotion renders participants more risk prone than negative emotion, and high time pressure promotes people more risk seeking than no time pressure); (2) time pressure polarized the effects of different emotions on risk decision-making. As effects of emotions were polarized under high time pressure, two distinct cognitive pathways may function in human decision-making. Based on our experimental result and previous neuroeconomic works, we proposed a novel dual cognitive pathways model to explain phenomenon in the current article.     

商业银行操作风险监管的发展及对我国商业银行的启示

商业银行的操作风险监管在1995年巴林银行事件后开始引起高度重视,至今已有十余年。本文系统整理了国际银行业和我国商业银行操作风险监管的发展历程,分析了我国商业银行操作风险监管从无到有、从弱到强、日趋完善、与国际银行业逐步接轨的发展轨迹。在此基础上,指出我国商业银行与监管要求之差距所在以及未来努力的方向。     

The effects of risk‐taking tendency on risk choice and pre‐ and post‐decisional information selection

Ideally, people seek and select information about unfamiliar risks with which they are confronted, before they make a risk choice. This study investigated what happens when people do not have this opportunity. The main question was how risk‐taking tendency influences intuitive risk decisions and how this impacts subsequent information search and subsequent choices. In the present study, participants had to make a choice about an unfamiliar risk, either before or after they had had the opportunity to search for (risk‐promoting or risk‐averse) information. In the condition where they could only seek for information after they had made a choice, they had to reconsider their first choice and make a second risk choice. We expected that (1) risk‐taking tendency would impact people's risk choices, but only in the situation where they have little information. On the basis of cognitive dissonance theory, it was furthermore predicted that (2) risk‐taking tendency and (3) initial risk choice would affect risk information selection. Furthermore, we predicted that (4) the first risk choice and (5) the risk information selected would influence the subsequent risk choice. The results suggest that if people make a first, intuitive decision about an unknown risk, risk‐taking tendency has an effect on the choice, but that this does not happen when people can first select information. Risk‐taking tendency did not influence information selection, but initial choice did (although in another way than we expected). Furthermore, both the first risk choice and the risk information selected affected subsequent risk choices. These findings suggest that people often make initial intuitive decisions that are influenced by personality characteristics, and that are subsequently difficult to change.     

The Effectiveness of Public and Private Sector Summary Risk Measures in Predicting Insurer Insolvencies

This article investigates the abilities of four key summary risk measures to predict property-liability insurer insolvencies. The four summary risk measures studied are the NAIC's risk-based capital ratios, the NAIC's financial analysis solvency tools (FAST) scores, A.M. Best's Capital Adequacy Relativity ratios, and A.M. Best's ratings. The empirical tests find that the risk measures produced by the private sector are superior in predictive ability to the measures produced by regulators, perhaps because of the qualitative adjustments made by private sector analysts. The results also demonstrate that overall measures of risk are substantially better than risk-based capital measures in predicting insolvencies. Another finding is that the predictive ability of the NAIC's RBC ratios can be improved substantially if ranks are used rather than the ratios themselves.     

The weird rules of creativity

For at least the past decade, the holy grail for companies has been innovation. Managers have gone after it with all the zeal their training has instilled in them, using a full complement of tried and true management techniques. The problem is that none of these practices, well suited for cashing in on old, proven products and business models, works very well when it comes to innovation. Instead, managers should take most of what they know about management and stand it on its head. In this article, Robert Sutton outlines several ideas for managing creativity that are clearly odd but clearly effective: Place bets on ideas without much heed to their projected returns. Ignore what has worked before. Goad perfectly happy people into fights among themselves. Good creativity management means hiring the candidate you have a gut feeling against. And as for the people who stick their fingers in their ears and chant, "I'm not listening, I'm not listening," when customers make suggestions? Praise and promote them. Using vivid examples from more than a decade of academic research to illustrate his points, the author discusses new approaches to hiring, managing creative people, and dealing with risk and randomness in innovation. His conclusions? The practices in this article succeed because they increase the range of a company's knowledge, allow people to see old problems in new ways, and help companies break from the past.     

The two faces of social capital in private flood mitigation: opposing effects on risk perception,self-efficacy and coping capacity

Impacts of flooding are expected to increase, most notably in residential areas. As a consequence, private households are increasingly encouraged to engage in private flood mitigation complementary to public measures. Despite the growing literature on private flood mitigation, little is known about how social capital influences households’ perception of and coping with flood risks. This study draws on survey data of 226 flood-prone households in two Austrian Alpine municipalities, both recently affected by riverine flooding. We show that social capital cuts both ways: on the positive side, social capital increases perceived self-efficacy and provides critical support during and most notably after flood events. On the negative side, social capital reduces flood risk perceptions of private households. While social ties are effective when responding to and recovering from floods, the expectation of social support downplays risk, making precautionary action by households less likely. The results also show that flood-affected households receive more social support than they provide to others. In the long-run, this can lead to a problematic reciprocity imbalance, challenging the long-term stability of the interpersonal exchanges underlying social capital. Among the various sources of social support, informal social networks (neighbours, friends and relatives) provide the most important workforce in the response and recovery phase of a flood event. It is therefore crucial for flood risk management to recognise and promote the protective quality of social capital alongside conventional structural and non-structural measures.     

The role of numeric and statistical content on risk perception in infographics about road safety

Abstract

Numbers saturate news coverage and health and risk messaging. But as our expertise in the creation of statistical information increases, the ability to use those statistics in decision making remains frustratingly inadequate. There has been a wealth of research related to how to train people to better use the numbers they interact with on a daily basis. Far less research, however, explores the appropriate way to use numbers in communication. Two experiments explored the role of numbers in risk communication infographics related to road safety while driving. Experiment 1 found that the presence of numbers influence risk perception, but whether those numbers reflect accurate statistics or random numbers does not change their influence. Experiment 2 found that removing all statistics entirely from infographics and replacing them with linguistic gist representations of the numbers (i.e. words like ‘some’, ‘many’, ‘none’) increased risk perception even though people found the infographics to be less informative than the ones containing numbers. The results suggest that the gist representations of the numbers in the context of the infographics are equivalent regardless of their value, such that the very presence of statistics influences judgment and risk perception but not their meaning. They also suggest that people do not always realize how they are using statistical information in their judgement and decision making process.     

巨灾债券与巨灾保险风险分散

巨灾债券,作为一种债权合同,相对于巨灾再保险而言,虽然是一个两极端产品,但在分散风险方面具有其不可比拟的优势。在大额损失时,巨灾债券是巨灾再保险的一种很好的替代产品。另外,巨灾风险债券的发行对巨灾再保险免赔额具有积极影响。     

The new Spanish system of intergovernmental transfers

This article analyses the workings of the new Spanish system of intergovernmental transfers, which has been in operation since 2009, and compares its expected effects with those of the model that was in force until 2008. The paper considers the effects of the new model at the base year of application and the growth over time of these effects. On the positive side, the reform has significantly reduced the dispersion of the distribution of regional resources per capita. On the negative side, the system has become very complex and obscure regarding the distribution criteria it uses; also, of the five (1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2009) major revisions of the system, this is the most expensive.     

The impact of aggressive orders in an order-driven market: a simulation approach

This article investigates resiliency in an order-driven market. On basis of a vector autoregressive model capturing various dimensions of liquidity and their interactions, I simulate the effect of a large liquidity shock, measured by a very aggressive market order. I show that, despite the absence of market makers, the market is resilient. All dimensions of liquidity (spread, depth at the best prices and order book imbalances) revert to their steady-state values within 15 orders after the shock. For prices, a long run effect is found. Furthermore, different dimensions of liquidity interact. Immediately after a liquidity shock, the spread becomes wider than in the steady state, implying that one dimension of liquidity deteriorates, while at the same time, depth at the best prices increases, meaning an improvement of another liquidity dimension. In subsequent periods, the spread reverts back to the steady-state level but also depth decreases. Also, I find evidence for asymmetries in the impact of shocks on the ask and bid side. Shocks on the ask side have a stronger impact than shocks on the bid side. Finally, resiliency is higher for less-frequently traded stocks and stocks with a larger relative tick size.     

The Wild West of executive coaching

Annual spending on executive coaching in the United States is estimated at 1 billion dollars. Yet information about coaching's effectiveness is scarce and unreliable. No one has yet demonstrated conclusively what qualifies an executive coach or what makes one approach to executive coaching better than another. Barriers to entry are nonexistent--many executive coaches know little about business, and some know little about coaching. The coaching certifications offered by various self-appointed bodies are difficult to assess, and methods of measuring return on investment are questionable. But strategic coaching can provide critical help both to individuals and to organizations. In this article, Stratford Sherman, a senior vice president of Executive Coaching Network, and Alyssa Freas, the founder and CEO, explore the popularity of executive coaching and investigate ways to make the most of the experience. They argue that coaching is inevitably a triangular relationship between the client, the "coachee," and the coach. Its purpose is to produce behavioral change and growth in the coachee for the economic benefit of the client. The best way to maximize the likelihood of good results is to qualify all the people involved. Even so, many triangular relationships continue to generate conflict among all three parties. At the most basic level, coaches serve as suppliers of candor, providing leaders with the objective feedback they need to nourish their growth. Coaching gets executives to slow down, gain awareness, and notice the effects of their words and actions. On a larger scale, the best coaching fosters cultural change for the benefit of the entire organization. It provides a disciplined way for businesses to deepen relationships with their most valued employees while also increasing their effectiveness.     

Confidence,knowledge, and compliance with emergency evacuation

This article considers how risks are responded to through behavioral adaptations and avoidance strategies. We observe that such behavior can become totemistic and have a limited relationship to the risk it ostensibly answers to. Drawing upon examples such as recycling and original data from a study on drink‐spiking avoidance, the article sets out a new concept for discussing and understanding such risk‐related behavior: the ‘risk ritual’. We elaborate upon this concept in the article, identifying a number of tendencies in risk rituals and drawing upon anthropological and sociological work on the nature and uses of ritual. We compare the ‘risk ritual’ to religious and community rituals, exploring the connections between the former and the rain dance, religious ablutions, abstinence from eating meat on a Friday, and rite of passage ceremonies. Influenced by the cultural approach to risk, we argue that risk rituals, like rituals more generally, are shaped by social conditions, currents, and processes, such as the emphasis on personal responsibility for risk management and the desire to mark out the ‘sacred’ and the ‘profane’. The article concludes that ritualistic risk behavior is better viewed as functional rather than irrational.