Persistent unemployment and co-ordination issues: an evolutionary perspective

Abstract. In this paper we look at unemployment as a phenomenon which reflects the co-ordination problems that characterize out-of-equilibrium processes of adjustment. The analysis carried out shifts the focus from structural factors to the economic process. It shows that unemployment cannot be satisfactorily explained – and policy interventions devised – by focusing only on specific characters of the technology or confining the analysis to structural factors concerning the labour market. The co-ordination mechanisms of adjustment processes rather than the fundamentals of the economy appear, in this light, as the main determinants of differences in unemployment trends in different economies; and monetary policy comes back to the center of the stage as an essential element of the working of these mechanisms. RID="*" ID="*" We thank anonymous referees for their very useful comments, and Elena Lega for the helpful support to the simulation analysis carried out. Correspondence to: J.-L. Gaffard     

Wage formation in historical perspective: the French experience

Translator's note: In this article Robert Bayer introduces thenotion ‘regulation’ as a key concept in analysesof the labour market. The term refers to the balance of social,institutional and economic forces which characte rise at a particulartime the economic system as a whole or particular parts of it.I considered translating ‘regulation’ as ‘order’,‘regime’, ‘system’ or ‘formation’;but these terms are either too static or already bear inappropriateconnotations. It was therefore decided to retain the Frenchexpression in the English text.     

马克思失业理论与西方经济学失业理论:一个新的综合

马克思失业理论与古典经济学失业理论、凯恩斯失业理论、货币主义失业理论、新古典经济学失业理论尽管存在差别,但也存在相当程度的一致性.正是二者的一致性与差异,为失业理论进行新的综合分析提供了基础与前提.     

Market timing and corporate capital structure: a transatlantic comparison

This article provides comparative international evidence on the effect of market timing on corporate capital structures using panel data for US, UK and continental European firms. We document that the empirical regularity found for US firms, that historical market-to-book ratios and corporate leverage correlate negatively does not extend to UK and continental European firms. The latter tend to raise debt rather than equity when stock prices are high, thus sticking more closely to a pecking order in which debt is preferred over external equity.     

The social costs of unemployment: accounting for unemployment duration

This article contributes to the literature on unemployment and well-being by investigating the linkage between personal life satisfaction and a macroeconomic indicator of the duration of unemployment. Using data for more than 50?000 individuals in 10 European countries, 1992–2002, we find that the social costs of unemployment, in terms of general unemployment's impact on life satisfaction, relate significantly and to a considerable extent to unemployment duration. It is thus not just the risk of becoming or staying unemployed that people worry about, but especially the prospect of staying long-term unemployed. This fear affects employed and unemployed people alike. Our findings provide a strong point for focusing labour market policies on long-term unemployment, in addition to considerations of human capital depreciation.     

Price effects of airline consolidation: evidence from a sample of transatlantic markets

We offer an analysis of price effects of airline consolidation on a sample of transatlantic markets. While joining airlines’ networks through code-sharing decreases interline fares by up to 22.5% relative to those of non-consolidated carriers, and alliance membership also produces cost savings that decrease fares by up to 10%, antitrust immunity has no significant price effect for interline trips. Evidence that antitrust immunity increases fares on non-stop routes where it decreases competition is not robust. While total effect of airline consolidation on interline fares is about the same as indicated by previous studies, we suggest different sources of this effect. This paper is the first one presenting empirical evidence of no significant price effects of antitrust immunity.      

马克思失业理论与西方主流失业理论:当代中国失业问题的解读

当代中国日益严重的失业问题引起理论界的众说纷纭.西方主流失业理论与马克思失业理论相比,后者对解读当代中国的失业问题具有根本性、基础性的现实指导意义.根据马克思失业理论,资本积累仍是当代中国失业问题的根源.然而发展中的中国,既要发挥资本积累的优越性,又要让失业者适当分享资本积累的成果,并尽快提高其素质和能力,成为具有全球竞争力的新型劳动者,以此,才能解决当代中国的失业问题.     

The relationship between production and unemployment in Japan: Okun's law in comparative perspective

This paper studies the question whether the celebrated ‘Okun's law’, a relation between excess capacity and unemployment, applies to the postwar Japanese economy. Though the fitness of estimation is weak, the coefficient that measures the responsiveness of the output gap to the unemployment rate is very large, reaching 28. This large coefficient can be attributed to the elastic response in the female participation ratio, to flexible working hours, to the slow adjustment in employment, and to changes in industrial structures. The results are compared with those in the United States.     

Union games: technological unemployment

Summary. Given a production economy, we define union games by considering strategic behavior of the suppliers of factors. We refer to the Nash equilibria of this game as union equilibria. We analyze situations where the unemployment of factors is supported as a union equilibrium. The degree of unemployment depends on technological conditions. This allows us to model a source of unemployment which differs from the usual sources provided in the literature. We state a limit result that demonstrates that, as the market power of unions decreases, the corresponding sequence of union equilibria converges to the Walrasian equilibrium, that is, to full employment of factors. We also provide some examples that illustrate the main results.Received: 21 October 2004, Revised: 14 December 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D51, C72. Correspondence to: Emma Moreno-GarcíaE. Moreno acknowledges financial support from the Research Grant BEC2000-1388-C04-01 (Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and FEDER). G. Fernández de Córdoba and E. Moreno acknowledge financial support from the Research Grant SA091/02 from Junta de Castilla y León. We are indebted to C. Alós-Ferrer, C. Pita, D. Anisi, J. A. Ortega, F. Jimeno, J. P. Torres-Martínez, M. Steinert and C. Hervés for helpful comments and insights. We are particularly grateful to T. Kehoe and an anonymous referee for suggestions that improved this paper.     

Long-term unemployment, unemployment benefits and social assistance: The Polish experience

This paper provides a comprehensive account of the regulations governing the systems of unemployment support and social assistance in post-communist Poland. To provide a solid foundation for a further discussion of these issues, the paper extensively characterizes the Polish labor force in terms of the prevalence and duration of unemployment. A final aspect of our empirical analysis concerned the question of what are the main sources of personal income for labor force participants, unemployed workers and long-term unemployed workers. In conclusion, we argue for a reform of the Polish systems of income support that separates the objectives of employment growth and poverty alleviation, and that improves upon the implementation of support schemes.     

Real and perceived losses from unemployment: a cross-country study

This article compares the Unemployment Rate (UR) as a measure of inefficiency with several other potential measures across 18 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Results show that the UR is not a very good measure of relative inefficiency between countries, it overestimates the number of individuals who would get jobs if the market is clear, the Dead Weight Losses (DWLs) of UR are remarkably low even in high unemployment countries and the aggregate perceived monetary losses by the unemployed as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are also uniformly low, although inframarginal individuals in some countries may perceive their losses to be high.     

The causes of unemployment in France: a flow approach

A flow model is used to identify the causes for rising unemployment in France between 1978 and 1990. Two flow equations are estimated as functions of exogenous factors such as aggregate demand, factor costs, structural shifts and long-term factors and then used in simulations for the level of unemployment. It is shown that the main reason for high unemployment in France is a slow down in the demand for labour due to high labour and energy costs in the early 1980s and to tight aggregate demand over the whole period.Change in the labour supply have had an increasing impact in recent years.     

Migration,unemployment and development: a dynamic two-sector analysis

"A time-minimizing problem of attaining a full employment state is solved in a dual-economy model with [the] Harris-Todaro migration mechanism and with a positive level of urban unemployment in the starting period. It appears that the optimum solution lies in the specialization of investment in the urban sector at least in the initial stage of development if the per-capita stock in the urban sector is very small in the starting period."     

Jobs specialization versus unemployment: more on the productivity effect of unemployment benefits

We use the Marimon and Zilibotti (Econ J 109: 266–291, 1999) circle model and we endogenize the choice of the degree of specialization of jobs. We show that an increase in unemployment benefits not only reduces the mismatch of talents (as in Marimon and Zilibotti), but it also raises the degree of specialization of jobs. This reinforces the productivity enhancing effects of unemployment benefits.      

International transatlantic trade liberalization: zooming in on regional impacts

The current study analyses the impact on a Portuguese small island regional economy of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) between the EU and the USA. A dynamic Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) model detailing six household categories, 45 sectors, and four trading partners is used. Previous studies used aggregate variables and, largely, were based on the structure of the national economy. For a small, integrated economy, foreign trade statistics comprise an underestimation, given that most of the trade occurs through national logistics centres. Taking into account the national integration effects, gross domestic value was estimated to be higher than in other studies. Using equivalent variation, the estimated welfare impact is positive for all six household categories. Value-added suffers mixed impacts depending on the sector. It is negative for fisheries, ambiguous for agriculture and positive for tourism and transportation. The contribution of the current study is to highlight the importance of looking beneath the trade block and national conclusions particularly when regional economic policy is relevant as is the case in Europe. Better knowledge of welfare, regional and sector impacts allows for improved development and mitigation policies.     

Long-term unemployment and labour force participation: a decomposition of unemployment to test for the discouragement and added worker hypotheses

We sharpen tests for ‘discouragement’ and ‘added worker’ effects by splitting the explanatory variable – the unemployment rate – into a short-term component and a long-term component. While short-term unemployment (STU) might not result in additional workers on a large scale, long-term unemployment (LTU) reduces household income more, increasing the need for additional income. On the other hand, it may discourage older workers for psychological and sociological reasons. Applying our model to the German labour market, these hypotheses could be confirmed. Even for men, about whom only a few empirical studies on this issue are available, distinguishing between STU and LTU reveals added worker as well as discouragement effects.