How unemployable are displaced manufacturing workers?: An analysis of adjustment costs and supplemental adjustment assistance benefits in France

There are government programs which provide supplemental adjustment assistance benefits to displaced workers in designated industries. Appealing to the ‘gains from trade’ with income redistribution theory, this paper analyzes the link between the adjustment costs of displaced workers and their former sector of employment. These costs are measured by French data on the mean duration of joblessness of laid-off workers. Empirical evidence is found which confirms the hypothesis that workers displaced from traditional manufacturing and resource industries suffer particularly high losses stemming from unemployment. These effects may be tied to workings of internal labour markets.     

Three million foreigners,three million unemployed? Immigration flows and the labour market in France

This paper investigates the effect of the flows of immigrant workers on the French labour market from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s. Using a system of equations for unemployment, labour-force participation, the real wage and the immigration rate, it is shown that, in the long run, both legal and amnestied immigrant workers, and immigrant families lower the unemployment rate permanently. In the short-run, the arrival of immigrants increases unemployment slightly with an impact effect similar to that of an increase in domestic labour-force participation. The composition of immigration flows matters and the results indicate that the distribution between workers from the European Union and other regions of the world, also more skilled and less skilled workers, should remain balanced.     

Estimation of income elasticities from cross-section data

Using Johnson's decomposition technique, this paper demonstrates that the disappearance of the gap between female and male unemployment rates in the United States during the last decade results partly from a general hiring policy that is favourable to women workers. This conclusion holds for workers in five out of eight occupational subsamples considered. The sign and size of unexplained female - male unemployment rate differential estimated from 1969, 1977 and 1987 CPS data suggest that hiring discrimination against females in the US labour market has declined considerably during the last two decades. The study also supports the earlier finding that the growth of employment in government and in the female dominated service sector, and migration of workers from the South to other regions contribute significantly to the convergence of male and female unemployment rates in the 1980s.     

Trade and inequality in a directed search model with firm and worker heterogeneity

This paper integrates the insight that exporting firms are typically more productive and employ higher‐skilled workers into a directed search model of the labour market. The model generates a skill premium as well as residual wage inequality among identical workers. A trade liberalization increases the skill premium and likely increases residual inequality among high‐skilled workers. The calibrated model generates results consistent with the prior literature examining the effect of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement on the Canadian labour market: a significant decrease in employment in manufacturing, but only a small change in unemployment and wages.     

Do the French pension reforms increase re-employment of older unemployed workers?

ABSTRACT

The sustainability of Social Security financing has pushed authorities to reform their policy to increase the labour market participation of older workers. While most of the studies have focused on the consequences of pension reform on retirement decisions, we analyse the effects of two French pension reforms, which increased the period of contribution and the minimum retirement age, on transitions out of unemployment and into employment with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that both retirement reforms have positive effects on the re-employment of older unemployed workers. The pension reforms are also accompanied by an increase of the transitions into inactivity. The results suggest that the reforms have delivered significant effects by reducing the unemployment of older workers.     

Estimating the relationship between labour market tightness,unemployment insurance benefits and union election activity

Using detailed data from the US National Labor Relations Board, we find labour market tightness, defined as the ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed, has a positive relationship with the likelihood of voting in favour of union representation. Specifically, a 1 SD increase in labour market tightness increases Vote Share in favour and the likelihood of union certification by roughly 1.5% and 3%, respectively. We also find that length of unemployment insurance benefits has a positive relationship with Vote Share in favour. Taken together, these results suggest that workers are more comfortable engaging in pro-union election behaviours when exogenous conditions, like labour market tightness and unemployment insurance benefit duration, shift in a way that more favourably insulates them from unemployment and income risk.     

Migration and Labour Market Adjustment: Empirical evidence from Finland 1985‐90

This paper addresses the question of the role of migration as an adjustment process by analysing the relationship between unemployment and labour force mobility. The empirical analysis deals with long-distance migration in Finland in the period 1985-90. When considered within a multivariate setting in which personal and place characteristics are held constant, the results show that higher origin unemployment rates increase outmigration, but not particularly for unemployed workers. Three outcomes are deduced from the results. First, the equilibrating process of interregional migration is slow-although working in the right direction-and becomes steadily slower as regional unemployment differentials fall. Secondly, the size of high-unemployment regions, as measured in terms of the labour force, decreases during the adjustment process as employed persons also leave the region. Thirdly, high-unemployment regions in particular lose their young and educated workers. The danger of the process of cumulative causation is great in these regions.     

Ethnic Penalties in Unemployment and Occupational Attainment: Evidence for Britain

In spite of progress made since the 1950s and 1960s, black, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi workers remain disadvantaged relative to whites in terms of their labour market opportunities. In general, they experience higher rates of unemployment and tend to be under-represented in higher paid, non-manual occupations. They can therefore be said to pay an ethnic penalty in the competition for jobs although the penalties paid vary considerably between the minority groups. In this paper we examine the different employment experiences of black, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi men and women in terms of their unemployment propensities and occupational attainment.We use maximum likelihood methods to show that the ethnic penalties experienced by minority workers are not fully explained by differences in human capital endowments and personal characteristics. We conclude that at least some of the disadvantage experienced by ethnic minorities in the British labour market can be attributed to discriminatory selection practices by employers.     

The business cycle,labor market transitions by age,and the great recession

Using matched monthly CPS data, this article studies differences in labour force transitions across age groups focusing on periods prior to and after the start of the Great Recession. Monthly transitions between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation of 25–55-year-old males are examined from 1996 through 2013. Prior to the Great Recession (1996–2007), younger groups of workers are more likely to move from employment to unemployment and face an increased risk beyond that of other workers of making this transition as the economy worsens; however, this differential responsiveness no longer appears after the start of the Great Recession. Before and after the start of the Great Recession, younger groups of workers are more likely to move from unemployment to employment; however, there is no extra responsiveness among younger workers to the business cycle. Transitions into and out of the labour force nuance these findings; however, there is no evidence of differential responsiveness among younger workers since the start of the Great Recession. These findings challenge interpretation of the movements of unemployment rates by age group over the business cycle as being driven by differential hiring and firing particularly since the start of the Great Recession.     

UNEMPLOYMENT POLICIES IN AN ECONOMY WITH ADVERSE SELECTION

This paper studies the effects of unemployment policies in a simple static general equilibrium model with adverse selection in the labour market. Firms offer a contract that induces the self‐selection of workers. In equilibrium, all unskilled workers are screened out and some skilled workers are rationed out. It is shown that the provision of unemployment insurance raises involuntary unemployment by encouraging adverse selection, while unemployment assistance – or subsidy to unemployment – reduces involuntary unemployment. A simple efficiency wage model is also presented to show that either of the two policies reduces employment by taxing effort and subsidizing shirking. The key is whether the social role of unemployment is a sorting device or a worker discipline device.     

The effect of increases in the level of unemployement on older workers

This study explores the influence of the level of unemployment on labour force participation and full- versus part-time status, for men and women aged 56 to 60. Comparisons are also made with 16–19- and 31–35-year-old men and women. It is found that when the unemployment increases, discourgement is greater for older men than for younger ones. For Women, Prime-aged workers exhibit less discouragement than either the older or younger women. The study also infers the original labour force status of older discouraged workers. For men, displaced workers come largely from the ranks of full-time workers. For women, both full- and part-time workers are displaced.     

Wage,productivity and unemployment: microeconomics theory and macroeconomics data

We confront microeconomics theory with macroeconomics data. Unemployment results from two main micro-level decisions of workers and firms. Most of the efficiency wage and bargaining theories predict that over the business cycle, unemployment falls below its natural rate when the worker’s real wage exceeds the reservation wage. However, these theories have weak empirical support. Firm’s decision predicts that when the worker’s real wage exceeds the marginal product of labour (MPL), unemployment increases above its natural rate. Accounting for this microeconomic decision helps explain almost all the fluctuations of US unemployment.     

The European unemployment problem: its cause and cure

The stubbornly high unemployment experienced by European countries since the mid-1970s have led to a major reconsideration of the natural rate paradigm. Traditional theories which describe movements of unemployment as fluctuations around a moving natural rate have been challenged by hysteresis theories. The question arises how one can discriminate between these competing theories. To this end, we estimate a time-varying parameter model of the unemployment rate for the US, UK, Germany, and France. The parameters of the model were estimated jointly by maximum likelihood estimation using the Kalman filter algorithm. When the moving natural rate model is tested against the alternative of a unit root process, the unit root hypothesis is resoundingly rejected. Among the determinants of the natural rate institutions that alter labour market incentives for workers appear to have been more important than institutions that affect labour demand.     

Equilibrium unemployment with outsourcing and wage solidarity under labour market imperfections

We evaluate the effects of outsourcing and wage solidarity on wage formation and equilibrium unemployment in a heterogeneous labour market, where wages are determined by a monopoly labour union. We find that outsourcing promotes the wage dispersion between the high- and low-skilled workers. When the labour union adopts a solidaristic wage policy, it will dampen this tendency. Further, higher outsourcing will increase equilibrium unemployment among the high-skilled workers, whereas it will reduce it among the low-skilled workers. Overall, outsourcing will reduce economy-wide equilibrium unemployment under the reasonable condition that the proportion of high-skilled workers is sufficiently low.     

The time-frequency dependence of unemployment on real input prices: a wavelet coherency and partial coherency approach

ABSTRACT

While the dependence of unemployment on real oil price and real interest rate is an important issue that has been addressed only in the time dimension, little is known about the movements of real input prices and their impact on unemployment in the time-frequency space. With a continuous wavelet coherency and partial coherency approach and monthly data of Japan and US from January 1960 to May 2017, this paper contributes to the literature by examining the characteristics of the dependence of unemployment on real input prices across frequencies and over time. The empirical results indicate that: First, a rise in real oil price leads to productivity growth slowdown and unemployment increase at the scale of 16–64 months after 1990 for Japan and 8–24 months after 2005 for US. Second, an increase in real interest rate results in higher unemployment at the 16–32-month scale before 1974 for Japan and 8–64-month scale before 2000 for US. Third, the degree of integration between labour market and energy market in US is higher than that in Japan. This study provides time-frequency evidence to the supply side hypothesis about the relationships between input prices and unemployment.     

Labour market programmes and the equity-efficiency trade-off

This paper studies optimal labour market policy in a society where differently gifted individuals can invest in training to further increase their labour market productivity and where the government seeks both efficiency and equity. Frictions in the matching process create unemployment and differently skilled workers face different levels of risk of unemployment. We show that in such an environment, training programmes that are targeted at the disadvantaged workers complement passive transfers (UI benefits), unlike general training subsidies. Combining passive subsidies with a training subsidy conditioned on the individual being unemployed (for a period) – the typical Active Labour Market Programme – creates a favourable trade-off between equity and efficiency and this encourages high spending on training.     

HOW WELL HAS THE NEW DEAL FOR YOUNG PEOPLE WORKED IN THE UK REGIONS?

The UK New Deal for Young People (NDYP) is a mandatory active labour market programme aimed at helping unemployed young people into jobs. This paper examines how the programme affected hazard rates for unemployment exits across the UK regions in its first few years. The regional focus is motivated by the belief that differences between regional labour markets, between claimants, and differences in implementation may have led to differences in programme outcomes. The paper shows that NDYP increased outflows from unemployment in all regions but that its impact was larger in some regions than in others. The paper also shows differential NDYP impacts across the regions on destination-specific hazard rates from unemployment to employment, to education/training, to inactivity and to 'other'. Possible explanations for these results are then discussed.     

The impact of minimum wages and foreign domestic workers in Taiwan

The purpose of setting the minimum wage is mainly to protect the rights and interests of vulnerable workers and to enhance productivity of labour. In this paper, an attempt has been made to explore the effect of the upwards adjustment of the minimum wage in Taiwan on the inflation rate, the unemployment rate, labour productivity, economic growth and other macroeconomic variables by means of an analysis of empirical data using a structural vector auto‐regressive model. The findings of the paper show that upwards adjustment of the minimum wage in Taiwan will not intensify the unemployment rate. On the contrary, it will help to promote labour productivity to an extent that will have a positive effect on the economic growth rate. In addition, this paper investigates, long‐term care system should incorporate the foreign domestic worker labour pool, which could provide the additional personnel necessary for the nation's long‐term care. Minimum wage should apply to foreign domestic workers, and foreign domestic workers should not be treated as a separate group of workers in minimum wage policy.     

Employment, wages, and the economic cycle: Differences between immigrants and natives

In this paper, we analyse differences in the cyclical pattern of employment and wages of immigrants and natives for two large immigrant receiving countries, Germany and the UK. We show that, despite large differences in their immigrant populations, there are similar and significant differences in cyclical responses between immigrants and natives in both countries, even conditional on education, age, and location. We decompose changes in outcomes into a secular trend and a business cycle component. We find significantly larger unemployment responses to economic shocks for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers and for immigrants relative to natives within the same skill group. There is little evidence for differential wage responses to economic shocks. We offer three explanations for these findings: an equilibrium search model, where immigrants experience higher job separation rates, a model of dual labour markets, and differences in the complementarity of immigrants and natives to capital.