Modelling Recreation Demand Using Choice Experiments: Climbing in Scotland

This paper is concerned with the use of thechoice experiment method for modelling thedemand for recreation, using the example ofrock-climbing in Scotland. We begin byoutlining the method itself, including itstheoretical and econometric underpinnings. Datacollection procedures are then outlined. Wepresent results from both nested and non-nestedmodels, and report some tests for theimplications of choice complexity andrationality. Finally, we compare our resultswith a revealed preference data model based onthe same sample of climbers.     

北京城镇居民对不同猪肉质量安全特征的消费偏好和支付意愿

利用针对北京市城镇居民的问卷调查数据,运用选择实验法,采用多元条件Logit模型实证分析了消费者对生鲜猪肉的不同质量安全特征的偏好和支付意愿。结果表明:对猪肉产品的不同质量安全特征进行标识有助于提高消费者的效用水平;北京市城镇居民对生鲜猪肉建立质量安全可追溯体系的偏好和支付意愿最高,其次是生鲜猪肉通过产品质量安全认证、柔嫩度较好,对生鲜猪肉具有无瘦肉精和兽药残留的质量安全标识的偏好和支付意愿最低。据此提出:中国应加强生鲜猪肉质量安全可追溯体系建设;政府监管部门应规范农产品质量安全标识的申请和使用行为,确保农产品生产者进行安全生产,确保质量安全标识制度的有效实施。     

Revealed Preference Analysis of Characteristics Models

Characteristics models have been found to be useful in many areas of economics. However, their empirical implementation tends to rely heavily on functional form assumptions. In this paper we develop a revealed preference approach to characteristics models. We derive the necessary and sufficient empirical conditions under which data on the market behaviour of heterogeneous, price-taking consumers are non-parametrically consistent with the consumer characteristics model. Where these conditions hold, we show how information may be recovered on individual consumers' marginal valuations of product attributes. In some cases, marginal valuations are point identified, and in other cases, we can only recover bounds. Where the conditions fail, we highlight the role which the introduction of unobserved product attributes can play in rationalizing the data. We implement these ideas using consumer panel data on the Danish milk market.     

Mixed logit estimation of willingness to pay distributions: a comparison of models in preference and WTP space using data from a health-related choice experiment

Different approaches to modelling the distribution of WTP are compared using stated preference data on Tanzanian Clinical Officers’ job choices and mixed logit models. The standard approach of specifying the distributions of the coefficients and deriving WTP as the ratio of two coefficients (estimation in preference space) is compared to specifying the distributions for WTP directly at the estimation stage (estimation in WTP space). The models in preference space fit the data better than the corresponding models in WTP space although the difference between the best fitting models in the two estimation regimes is minimal. Moreover, the willingness to pay estimates derived from the preference space models turn out to be very high for many of the job attributes. The results suggest that sensitivity testing using a variety of model specifications, including estimation in WTP space, is recommended when using mixed logit models to estimate willingness to pay distributions.     

Structural estimation of congestion costs

We estimate a structural model of congestion costs using a Bayesian Nash equilibrium approach: The individual's preference for traveling depends on the anticipated level of congestion, which in turn is determined by travelers’ decisions of mobility. The model is estimated using a French transportation household survey. Results confirm the presence of incomplete information and show that aversion to congestion is 6.6% lower during peak times than during off-peak times. A traveler's willingness-to-pay to save 1 min in traffic is estimated at 0.73 euros during peak times and 0.25 euros during off-peak times.     

A Joint Latent-Class Model: Combining Likert-Scale Preference Statements With Choice Data to Harvest Preference Heterogeneity

In addition to choice questions (revealed and stated choices), preference surveys typically include other questions that provide information about preferences. Preference-statement data include questions on the importance of different attributes of a good or the extent of agreement with a particular statement. The intent of this paper is to model and jointly estimate preference heterogeneity using stated-preference choice data and preference-statement data. The starting point for this analysis is the belief that the individual has preferences, and both his/her choices and preference statements are manifestations of those preferences. Our modeling contribution is linking the choice data and preference-statement data in a latent-class framework. Estimation is straightforward using the E-M algorithm, even though our model has hundreds of preference parameters. Our estimates demonstrate that: (1) within a preference class, the importance anglers associate with different Green Bay site characteristics is in accordance with their responses to the preference statements; (2) estimated across-class utility parameters for fishing Green Bay are affected by the preference-statement data; (3) estimated across-class preference-statement response probabilities are affected by the inclusion of the choice data; and (4) both data sets influence the number of classes and the probability of belonging to a class as a function of the individual’s type.     

A discrete choice experiment to assess patients’ preferences for HIV treatment in the urban population in Colombia

Abstract

Aim: This study aimed to assess patients’ preferences for HIV treatment in an urban Colombian population.

Methods: A Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) was conducted. Urban Colombian HIV patients were asked to repetitively choose between two hypothetical treatments that differ in regard to five attributes ‘effect on life expectancy’, ‘effect on physical activity’, ‘risk of moderate side effects, ‘accessibility to clinic’ and ‘economic cost to access controls’. Twelve choice sets were made using an efficient design. A Mixed Logit Panel Model was used for the analysis and subgroup analyses were performed according to age, gender, education level and sexual preference.

Results: A total of 224 HIV patients were included. All attributes were significant, indicating that there were differences between at least two levels of each attribute. Patients preferred to be able to perform all physical activity without difficulty, to have large positive effects on life expectancy, to travel less than 2?h, to have lower risk of side-effects and to have subsidized travel costs. The attributes ‘effect on physical activity’ and ‘effects on life expectancy’ were deemed the most important. Sub-analyses showed that higher educated patients placed more importance on the large positive effects of HIV treatment, and a more negative preference for subsidized travel cost (5% level).

Limitations: A potential limitation is selection bias as it is difficult to make a systematic urban/rural division of respondents. Additional, questionnaires were partly administered in the waiting rooms, which potentially led to some noise in the data.

Conclusions: Findings suggests that short-term efficacy (i.e. effect on physical activity) and long-term efficacy (i.e. effect on life expectancy) are the most important treatment characteristics for HIV urban patients in Colombia. Preference data could provide relevant information for clinical and policy decision-making to optimize HIV care.     

Apriori算法在高校学业管理中的应用

为了把握大学生进入高校之前的学业倾向,文章基于WEKA软件环境,运用Apriori算法,对高校学生历史数据进行挖掘,发掘影响学生学习效果的主要因素,剖析个体基本属性与成绩属性之间的关联性,预测某些属性会使学生的学习产生障碍,提高学业管理的针对性与时效性。     

Are the choices of people stochastically rational? A stochastic test of the number of revealed preference violations

Revealed preference tests are frequently used to check data on the behavior of agents for consistency with economic theory. Unfortunately these tests lack a stochastic element and thus one violation of revealed preference causes a rejection of the behavior being tested. To remedy this lack of a stochastic element in revealed preference analysis, we suggest a general, simple, and intuitive statistical procedure to test whether the observed number of violations is more consistent with a pre-specified type of non-degenerate behavior than with rational behavior. We illustrate this general procedure with an example using uniform random behavior that allows researchers to test whether the actual number of violations of revealed preference is more consistent with uniform random behavior than rational behavior. This statistical test takes advantage of the fact that nonparametric revealed preference tests involve known prices and expenditures. Our illustrative example is accompanied by some Monte Carlo exercises showing that the uniform test performs very well. We implement our test using datasets from two well-known economic experiments. One is a dataset on altruistic choices from Andreoni and Miller (Econometrica 70:737–753, 2002). The second is a dataset on the choices made by subjects who act within a token economy from Battalio et al. (West Econ J 11:411–428, 1973) and Cox (Econ J 107:1054–1078, 1997). We find that for a majority of subjects in one altruistic behavior sub-experiment uniform random behavior can be rejected in favor of rational behavior at the 10 % level of significance. For all but one subject, living in the token economy, uniform random behavior cannot be rejected. For that one subject in the token experiment uniform random behavior is rejected in favor of perverse economic behavior.     

DRIVERS OF PAYMENT PATTERNS AT THE POINT OF SALE: STABLE OR NOT?

This research shows that it is key to have up‐to‐date information on payment behavior per type of point of sale (POS) and on how this behavior is driven by sociodemographic factors and perceived payment instrument attributes. Based on 2004 and 2014 data of the Netherlands, we find substantial shifts in the drivers of payment behavior. The sociodemographic factors behind the adoption of the credit card and debit card have changed, especially for the latter payment card. In addition, there are substantial shifts in the effects of sociodemographic factors and perceived relative payment attributes on which payment instrument consumers most often use. Shifts in payment behavior depend on the type of POS. Overall, we find that safety has become more important for payment behavior. The extent to which payment behavior depends on user‐friendliness and speed has somewhat decreased. (JEL C25, D12, E42)     

约束型政策对于生育性别选择行为的影响:基于TPB模型的解释

基于计划行为理论(Theory of Planned Behavior,TPB)模型,利用陕西省三个县区的调查数据,对约束型政策在生育性别选择行为决策当中的作用进行了分析。个人的儿子偏好态度、社会关系网络成员的儿子偏好态度仍然是生育性别选择行为的决定性影响因素,约束型政策对生育性别选择行为具有一定的影响,但十分有限。研究结论对于现阶段中国出生人口性别比的治理提供了一定的启示,指出包含查出两非、全程服务、利益导向和宣传倡导等在内的综合手段对治理出生人口性别比具有积极作用。     

基于公平偏好的实验经济学研究综述

传统经济学建立在自利性假设之上,认为参与人仅仅关心自身利益,即使出现有悖于自利性假设的行为,也只是暂时性的偏离。而最近二十多年的实验经济学研究对该假设提出了质疑,利用大量实验数据不仅证明了人类行为中公平偏好的存在性,而且还表明这种存在性绝非是暂时性的偏离,其对人类的行为决策具有很强的系统性影响。目前相关学术研究主要体现在公平偏好与其他社会偏好的区分、有关人类行为决策中公平偏好存在性的实验证明、基于结果的公平偏好与基于动机的公平偏好的差异以及公平偏好对传统激励契约产生的影响。本文指出了国外学术界对公平偏好实验中包括实验对象、货币金额和文化等方面的质疑,同时也揭示了未来进一步的研究方向,构成了有关公平偏好实验经济学的研究进展及前沿趋势。     

不同激励偏好下创新奖励对研发人员创新行为的影响 ——自我决定与特质激活理论整合视角

基于自我决定理论与特质激活理论整合观点,构建以激励偏好为调节变量、创新自我效能感为中介变量的研究框架,探讨创新奖励对创新行为的影响机制及边界条件。研究表明：创新奖励对创新行为有显著正向影响,创新自我效能感部分中介创新奖励对创新行为的影响;在创新奖励强情境中,内激励偏好、外激励偏好分别正向调节创新奖励对创新自我效能感的影响,且正向调节创新奖励通过创新自我效能感影响创新行为的中介作用。研究揭示了当研发人员普遍认为创新工作内在激励不足时,在不同激励偏好下创新奖励是如何影响创新行为的,并有助于完善创新奖励制度以促进研发人员创新行为。     

产权信念及其对公平偏好与自利偏好的挤出

传统经济理论将产权作为经济绩效的外生变量,但是人类社会的演化路径表明产权是内生于人类族群的共同信念,它与内置于人类心智的公平偏好交互作用影响个体的决策行为。文章运用比较制度实验方法针对不同来源的产权考察其认同信念及其对公平偏好的影响。实验发现,产权不仅导致提议者对回应者和接受者有产权认同信念,也导致提议者的自利偏好和回应者的公平偏好被挤出;通过对利他偏好、策略行为和第三方评价的分离,测度了产权信念;提议者没有强烈的公平偏好动机,而是通过策略行为来最大化自身利益。     

Modelling preference heterogeneity for theatre tickets: a discrete choice modelling approach on Royal Danish Theatre booking data

This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect to the attributes associated with each ticket alternative (quality of the seat and day of the performance). In addition, the willingness to pay of choice attributes is estimated. Final results suggest that customers’ characteristics in terms of age and frequency of theatre attendance characterize different patterns of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket.     

Convergent Validity of Attribute-Based,Choice Questions in Stated-Preference Studies

The application of attribute-based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature, but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation. Three design issues are investigated in this paper: (1) the placement of the monetary stimulus (policy cost to respondents) in the sequence of attributes, (2) the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions (two versus three), and (3) the inclusion, versus exclusion, of a status-quo alternative in choice questions. The data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value Maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program. Tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus, first versus last in the list of attributes, did not affect estimates of preference parameters, significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur, and the inclusion/exclusion of a status-quo alternative did not affect preference parameters.     

Distal order effects in stated preference surveys

Stated preference researchers have previously demonstrated that a good's placement among a sequence of goods in a set of valuation questions (i.e. proximal order effects) can have a substantial impact on people's valuations of these different goods. However, the economic consequences of potential order effects stemming from other questions in a survey, prior to the valuation tasks, have received surprisingly little attention. Using an online climate change survey, we identify order effects created by prior attitude-elicitation questions, and we assess the potential impact of these distal order effects on willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for stylized climate change policies. We find that the order used in prior questions may change people's opinions toward various attributes of the good to be valued, and thereby change WTP by a substantial amount. This paper emphasizes the significance of order effects stemming from preliminary survey questions, and supports a call for diligence in the random ordering of all potentially influential preliminary information in stated preference surveys to minimize inadvertent effects from any single arbitrary ordering.     

A discrete choice experiment to determine UK patient preference for attributes of disease modifying treatments in Multiple Sclerosis

Aims: The recent licensing of Disease Modifying Treatments (DMTs) for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has increased available treatment options. The aim of this study was to explore MS patients’ preference for the different attributes of DMTs in the UK.

Materials and methods: Attributes (treatment characteristics) for inclusion in the discrete choice experiment (DCE) were determined through published literature and interviews with 12 people with MS. Seven attributes were selected. Participants were presented with three hypothetical treatment options sampled from included attributes and asked for their most/least preferred options. The influence of patient characteristics and demographics on patient preference was also investigated.

Results: The DCE was completed by 350 people with MS (81% female, mean age?=?39). Results showed that method of taking medication was the strongest determinant of preference (27%; relative importance out of 100%), followed by relapse free rate (21%) and symptom progression (14%). Risk of fatigue (8%) and type of monitoring (6%) were the weakest determinants of preference. Once-daily oral treatment was preferred over all other methods of administration. Participant characteristics did not influence data on strength of preference.

Limitations: This study assumed adequate participant understanding of the discrete choice experiment task, and recruitment targeted those with access to the internet.

Conclusions: These results, derived from people with MS in the UK, should be used to inform individual discussions with patients about DMT choices.