国外对技术经济研究有影响的主要流派及我国当前重大技术经济研究课题

<正> 一、国外对技术经济研究有影响的主要流派 (一)熊彼特的技术创新学说与长波技术论在较长的历史时期内,以世界为范围研究技术与经济关系的,最有代表的学说是长波技术论。长波技术论,即以技术创新为核心的经济增长长波模式,是美籍奥国经济学家熊彼特(J.A.Schumpeter)所创。1912年熊彼特在《经济发展理论》一书中,最先提出了解释资     

产业集群与中小企业技术创新——基于江苏省中小企业经验数据

在产业集群中,中小企业可以以较低的成本获得异质性知识,加快企业技术积累速度,同时可以通过企业间相互协作加速企业的研发速度.本文通过江苏省中小企业经验数据分析了中小企业技术创新现状,并通过实证检验了集群程度对于企业技术创新能力的提升作用.     

基于技术路线图、专利地图和TRIZ集成的产业集群创新技术路径研究

国内外的实践已经证明,技术路线图、专利地图和TRIZ是实现技术创新管理和自主创新的有效工具。分析了国内产业集群技术创新的研究成果,在研究技术路线图、专利地图和TRIZ集成的背景、理念融合和关键支撑的基础上,提出了将技术路线图、专利地图和TRIZ等创新方法融合集成,并应用于产业集群技术创新的新路径。     

中小企业集群形成原因的文献综述

中小企业集群作为一种组织形式,其发展与产业结构调整、技术创新以及国家和地方经济发展关系十分密切.本文对中小企业集群形成原因的相关文献进行了全面的考察和梳理.目的在于识别影响和决定中小企业集群形成的关键因素,把握中小企业集群的形成规律,进而给中小企业家提供理论支持,为建立政府对中小企业集群的扶持政策提供理论依据.     

创业投资促进技术创新集群的机制及路径研究

在对创业投资促进技术创新集群的原因进行分析的基础上,探讨了创业投资促进技术创新集群的机制,指出其机制在于创业投资实现了技术创新的人才聚集、技术聚集和资本聚集,提出了创业投资促进技术创新集群的两种路径:主导技术创新项目驱动集群和多项目共同驱动集群,并对创业投资促进江苏光伏技术创新集群的形成进行了案例分析。     

技术创新与网络互动下的产业集群升级研究

集群企业技术创新能力的提升是产业集群升级的微观基础和根本动力,但集群升级不仅是单个企业升级的问题,还表现为通过组织(网络)升级优化所带动的集群整体创新能力提升。研究集群升级过程中,企业技术创新行为与网络演化路径,并在此基础上研究基于技术创新与网络互动的集群升级过程和机理。     

基于VAR模型的制造业价值链攀升影响因素研究--以江苏为例

以向量自回归( VAR)模型为基础,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解和脉冲响应分析等技术,综合考察了技术创新、生产性服务业、产业集群、制造业规模等因素对江苏制造业价值链攀升的影响。研究发现：制造业价值链、技术创新、生产性服务业三者之间存在长期均衡关系,且生产性服务业是制造业价值链的Granger原因,制造业价值链是技术创新的Granger原因,但技术创新不是制造业价值链的Granger原因;脉冲响应和方差分解表明,各因素对制造业价值链攀升的影响顺序依次是生产性服务业、技术创新、产业集群指数和制造业规模,它们对制造业价值链总方差的贡献分别为28.1%、20.5%、6.3%和2.6%,说明四者对制造业价值链攀升具有重大影响,但生产性服务业影响更大。据此,提出了加快发展生产性服务业、加大技术创新力度、加速产业集群升级、壮大企业规模等政策建议。     

中小企业集群技术创新动因、过程与模式

作为新型技术创新主体,与其他创新主体相比,中小企业集群技术创新有其优势,因此有必要对中小企业集群的技术创新活动进行研究.本文拟对中小企业集群技术创新的动因、过程和主要模式进行详细分析,以此探寻中小企业集群技术创新活动的内在规律,为中小企业集群技术创新活动提供建议.     

基于VAR模型的制造业价值链攀升影响因素研究

以向量自回归(VAR)模型为基础,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、方差分解和脉冲响应分析等技术,综合考察了技术创新、生产性服务业、产业集群、制造业规模等因素对江苏制造业价值链攀升的影响。研究发现：制造业价值链、技术创新、生产性服务业三者之间存在长期均衡关系,且生产性服务业是制造业价值链的Granger原因,制造业价值链是技术创新的Granger原因,但技术创新不是制造业价值链的Granger原因;脉冲响应和方差分解表明,各因素对制造业价值链攀升的影响顺序依次是生产性服务业、技术创新、产业集群指数和制造业规模,它们对制造业价值链总方差的贡献分别为28.1％、20.5％、6.3％和2.6%,说明四者对制造业价值链攀升具有重大影响,但生产性服务业影响更大。据此,提出了加快发展生产性服务业、加大技术创新力度、加速产业集群升级、壮大企业规模等政策建议。     

产业集群技术创新的动力机制研究

产业集群是现代社会实现技术进步、经济增长的重要载体,探讨产业集群中的技术创新动力机制问题旨在提出产业集群可持续发展的动力源泉。介绍了关于产业集群技术创新形成的动力、产业集群的技术扩散和产业集群技术创新的政策体系3个方面的研究,并分别作出了评价总结。     

The limits of silicon valley: a critique of network theory

During the 1980s, the idea ofthe dynamic network was putforward as a new model of flexible production and applied to Silicon Valley, the home ofthe US semiconductor industry. This paper arguss that the Silicon Valley network (a collaborating group of high technology firms incapable of realizing the main rewards from its innovations. Although the dynamic network may be appropriate for the early stage of the product life cycle, it lacks the necessary complementary assets to secure the Profits generakd during the growth and maturity stapes. The network lacks the scale-intensive process capabilities, the global marketing outbts and the large financial resources needed to capture the rewards om mass market innovations. These assets, by necessity tend to be embodied in large integated corporations. A simple model is offered to show the limits of the networkform compared with the integrated 'Chandlerian' corporation. During the 1990s, large firms will continue to capture the profits from innovation, not only in saiconductors but also in other important global industries.     

Long waves in world industrial production,energy consumption,innovations, inventions,and patents and their identification by spectral analysis

Long-term cycles have been much discussed in the literature since Kondratieff (1926). (“Cycles” is, of course, a quite arbitrary term for these time periods.) Spectral analysis was applied by the authors to long-time series of industrial production, energy consumption, inventions, innovations, and patents in order to reveal quantitative regularities in their behavior and or in their interdependence. An attempt was also made to identify logistics within those time series. In the long cycle of 50–53 years no significant autocorrelation could be detected. Logistics exist only in three special periods for innovations and inventions. Nondominant long cycles do appear in the interaction between innovations, production, patents, and energy consumption. The investigation shed light on the causal structure of the innovation system. In particular, it revealed a significant influence of industrial production on patents with a lag of 9 years.     

Technological innovation and the long wave theory revisited

The pattern of basic innovation clustering associated with Kondratieff long wave downswings raises questions when we consider the 4th downswing. There is increasing concern expressed that we may be facing “innovation starvation” or “innovation stagnation”. Among the questions: Is the internet a cluster of one? Or should the smartphone, ipad, Facebook, icloud, etc. be considered basic rather than improvement innovations as well because of their huge societal impact? Is the long wave pattern exhibited for the past two hundred years continuing or is it breaking down?     

技术创新驱动经济长波机理:文献回顾与整合模型

回顾了经济长波理论,阐述了学者们提出的4种技术创新驱动经济长波的机理——主导产业更迭机理、投资周期作用机理、范式转变作用机理和综合作用机理。基于此,提出了技术创新驱动经济长波的整合模型。最后,总结了技术创新驱动经济长波机理研究的未来方向。     

Technological Innovations and the Interest Rate

We build a dynamic general equilibrium model that adds a banking sector to the standard RBC model. We look at the response of the real interest rate to innovations in the banks' technology and in the nonbank firms' technology. While technological innovations in the nonbanking sector put upward pressure on the interest rate, technological innovations in banks exert downward pressure on the interest rate. This implies that, if the technological innovations in banks are strong enough, stochastic simulation experiments generate negative correlations between the real interest rate and current and future values of real output. This is especially significant because negative correlations between the interest rate and output are a key post-war U.S. business cycle fact difficult to replicate in benchmark dynamic models.     

高校学生科技创新成果权属的职务发明制度之殇

学生群体是高校科研工作的重要力量,我国长期采用职务发明制度来规制科技创新成果权属,却忽视了学生与高校间不具备雇佣关系的逻辑前提,加之高校凭借强势地位进行扩权管理及师生群体默认“代际补偿”等原因,共同导致以补偿制度掩盖权利对价不公的非逻辑理性制度长期存在。因此,重构高校学生科技创新成果权属模式应摆脱职务发明制度思维的桎梏,重新回归发明权属一般规则。同时,基于学生对教师依附性及高校对科研过程物质支持的考虑,构建两层次法律规范——科技创新成果权属依据学生创造性贡献进行初次分配,再由高校与学生约定权属划分,法律仅规定“缺省规则”兜底。该模式既符合权属分配正义,又可以促进成果转化,是较为理想的路径选择。     

The process of technology evolution : Multitechnology innovations as the driving force

Technological innovations are the substance of technology and the drivers of its evolution. This process was studied by analyzing the US patent data base, getting information on types of innovation and on their trends.It was found that the evolution of a technology depends upon its annexing multitechnology innovations. Ascending technologies utilize wide-range innovations, while mature technologies utilize narrow-range innovations. The findings are summed up in a model that shows the life cycle of a technology, from emergence to maturity.The model can be applied at a laboratory level, at a firm strategy level, as well as at the national level. Some examples are presented to illustrate applications.     

The industrial life cycle of wind energy electrical power generation: ARI methodology modeling of life cycle dynamics

This innovation assessment addresses the factors that have influenced the exceptionally lengthy industrial technology life cycle of wind electrical power generation since its inception in the late 19th Century. It then applies the recently developed Accelerated Radical Innovation (ARI) Model to understand the dynamics of this innovation compared to those of other major 18th-20th Century innovations.Despite market pull in the late 19th Century to link small DC electrical generators with hundreds of thousands of existing wind mills used for mechanical water pumping, several factors prevented this from happening. These include the intermittent nature of wind electrical generation requiring low cost battery storage and DC-AC conversion, and the shift in the 1890s from DC to superior AC electrical generation making possible economies of scale for delivering AC electricity long distances over the grid from large hydroelectric and coal fired plants. As a consequence, wind generated electricity remained primarily a technological development until the first energy crisis in the 1970s.Development of an extensive science and technology base for wind turbine dynamics, and deployment since 2000 of commercial scale wind turbines (> 1MW) have elevated wind electrical power generation to commercial practicality, as described in two earlier papers by the authors applying technical cost modeling and experience curve projections of cost of energy (COE) to explore the economic viability of large scale wind electricity generation.. Strongly promoted by wind energy communities of practice in Europe, North America and Asia, normative COE projections suggest that by 2020 wind electrical power will be cost competitive, without tax incentives, with electricity from conventional fossil and nuclear fuel sources.Overcoming technological, business, market, societal, networking and political hurdles to date has required 120years of development to establish wind electricity generation as a breakthrough innovation with the capability to capture 20% of the world electricity market by the mid-to-late 21st Century. Further growth and maturation is expected to continue to 2100, corresponding to a projected ≅ 210year overall industry life cycle at market saturation. This finding has profound implications for innovation theory and practice, since the length of this life cycle exceeds by a factor of ≅ 4 the average life cycle diagnosed for five industrial revolutions and four key 20th Century innovations. The new ARI model provides a holistic approach to understanding the dynamics of the industrial technology life cycle for a wide variety of radical innovations as well as wind electrical power.     

经济长波:现象、理论与展望

综合已有文献,对经济长波现象、经济长波理论的相关研究进行了综述,在此基础上提出了经济长波理论的未来研究方向。总结如下:经济长波现象即经济发展过程中存在长度为40~60年、平均为50年的经济周期;从价格等观察变量开始的单一精确计量在经济长波现象发现过程中发挥了相当重要的作用,但并未为经济长波存在提供确凿证据,综合多种因素的多元推论历史模型可用来阐释经济长波的存在性;对经济长波的界定以周期性这一本质特性为前提,从狭义向广义发展,即从单纯经济变量发展到经济-社会-制度因素的组合;学者们对过去200多年已发生5次经济长波取得了基本一致的认识,但是在确切年份上因方法和数据的差异而略有不同;创新、战争、核心技术要素、多要素平衡与失衡是经济长波产生的主要因素,历次经济长波一般会伴随着技术或关键要素、产品或服务、基础设施、产业聚集和组织结构的变化。未来研究可从产业结构变化的角度研究经济长波的发生机理。