粮食安全下粮食主产区利益补偿新思路

粮食主产区是粮食的主要生产区和粮食提供的源泉地,但农业弱质性和比较收益低等原因造成主产区粮农收入低,影响到农民种粮积极性,政府对主产区的利益补偿是政策的必然选择。确保理性粮农的收入不低于非农产业的收益是提高粮农种粮积极性的政策目的。但目前,国家颁布实施的各项反哺性补偿政策存在着补偿效率低等问题,从长远看,必须建立粮食主产区内生性补偿机制,做到"硬投入"与"软投入"补偿并重,政策公平与效率并举,体制机制与市场机制补偿相结合。     

粮食补贴政策与生态退耕政策的目标耦合研究——基于微观农户行为的分析

基于当前影响农户生产行为的粮食补贴政策和生态退耕政策,本文构建了一个包含这两种政策的农户生产行为模型;根据模型求解结果,构建了衡量政策组多重目标的指标变量。通过对各指标变量进行比较静态分析,发现粮食补贴政策与生态退耕政策在农民增收目标上能够协调,但在粮食安全和农业生态环境保护目标上存在相互冲突和矛盾。基于此,提出了若干耦合多重政策目标的对策建议。     

全球粮食危机与中国应对策略

粮食安全是实现全球安全与可持续发展的重要基础,当前多重风险挑战叠加共振,削弱了国际社会抵御和应对粮食危机的能力。从全球粮食安全治理体系来看,粮食危机的生成因素涉及器物、制度与政策三个向度。世界经济增长放缓、地缘冲突频发、气候变化加剧削弱了全球粮食系统的器物基础,机制碎片化趋势降低了国际制度的治理效能,贸易保护主义和新自由主义粮农政策扩张致使诸多国家忽视粮食安全困境下必要的国际合作与共同利益。面对当前全球粮食危机,中国作为全球粮食安全治理的重要参与者,宜在全球发展倡议框架下,深入推进各项粮食安全行动,动员各方加大资金、技术等器物资源投入;加速全球粮食安全治理体系转型,维护联合国粮农三机构的中心作用;倡导普惠包容的粮农政策,引领塑造互利共赢的全球粮食安全合作氛围。     

农户兼业会影响粮食生产吗?——基于江汉平原粮食主产区360户粮农的调查

基于江汉平原粮食主产区360户粮农的调查资料,运用Oacaxa-Blinder模型对兼业户与纯农业户进行比较,从粮农家庭视角出发考察了农户兼业行为选择的合理性及其对粮食生产的影响。结果表明:兼业户由于对家庭劳动力进行了优化配置,相比纯农业户具有更高的生产效率,兼业户的家庭收入与粮食亩产水平都要高于纯农业户。因此,城镇化的加速发展与农业规模经营的实现,须建立在纯农业户的收入水平大幅提高的基础之上,任何人为地将农民家庭驱向城市,导致农民家庭"被市民化"的政策,以及盲目集中土地,粮食生产"被规模化"的行为,短期内既不利于粮农家庭收入最大化目标的实现,也不利于粮食生产。     

农户兼业会影响粮食生产吗——基于江汉平原粮食主产区400户粮农的调查

基于江汉平原粮食主产区400户粮农的调查资料,通过对兼业户与纯农业户的比较分析,从粮农家庭视角出发考察了农户兼业行为选择的合理性及其对粮食生产的影响。在利用Oacaxa-Blinder模型对家庭特征及其他影响因素的贡献率进行分解、分析后,结果表明:兼业户由于对家庭劳动力进行了优化配置,相比纯农业户具有更高的生产效率,兼业户的家庭收入与粮食亩产水平都要高于纯农业户。因此,对江汉平原粮食主产区来说,城镇化的加速发展与农业规模经营的实现,须建立在纯农业户的收入水平大幅提高与进城农民待遇得到根本改善的基础之上,任何人为地将农民家庭驱向城市,导致农民家庭"被市民化"的政策,以及盲目集中土地,粮食生产"被规模化"的行为,短期内既不利于粮农家庭收入最大化目标的实现,也不利于粮食安全。     

对粮食最低收购价政策效果的评价

粮食最低收购价政策的有效性事关国家粮食安全大计.笔者以小麦为例,对其最低收购价政策执行前后、执行省区与非执行省区产出的总量、结构与效率进行动态及静态比较,结果表明,小麦最低收购价政策托市效应较为明显,执行省区小麦的产出集中度、播种面积、单产、销售价格以及规模报酬优势稳步提升;同时,最低收购价对非执行省区的“基准价”功能以及辐射传导作用使政策托市效应一定程度上也溢向了非执行省区.适度扩大粮食最低收购价政策的范围与品种,对保障国家粮食安全、提高粮农收入有重要作用.     

功能失调、认知和行为偏差与农村政策性金融困境

农村政策性金融是国家保障农村社会强位弱势群体金融发展权和金融平等权的特殊制度安排.但由于内外种种原因,当前我国农村政策性金融改革发展中面临着一些问题及困境.本文依据行为金融学及结构方程模型等现代金融前沿理论与方法,通过实证分析,认为有关农村政策性金融的认知偏差、行为偏差和功能失调,对农村政策性金融发展困境具有正向影响,而且认知偏差与行为偏差对于农村政策性金融功能弱化也有显著的正相关关系,进而提出了相应的政策建议.     

我国粮食主产区的演变与可持续发展

近年来,我国粮食主产区面临区域经济滞后、粮食流通体系不顺畅、土地经营规模小、粮农种粮行为的工业化效应凸显等问题。实现粮食主产区可持续发展,必须引导粮食生产的适度规模经营;强化中央政府对粮食主产区的支持与保护;协调粮食主产区和主销区之间的关系;确定粮食主产区发展思路。     

农户经济行为视角的财政农业投资:绩效、原因、对策

我国财政对农业投入的效果与目标之间的偏差表明财政农业投资绩效欠佳.原因主要在于财政对农业投入力度、结构、机制与市场经济条件下农民理性经济行为不协调.提高财政对农业的投资与农民理性经济行为的兼容性可以促使农民理性经济行为与政府支农目标趋同,提高财政支农绩效.     

试析地方政府在政策执行中的主体行为偏差现象

地方政府作为政策执行者在政策执行过程中经常出现与政策制定初衷相悖的现象，本文分析了地方政府在政策执行过程中偏差行为的表现形式和原因的基础上．提出了相应的对策，以确保公共政策的顺利实施。     

发达国家粮食补贴政策及其启示

粮食补贴政策是目前很多国家和地区支持农业发展、保护农民利益的主要方式之一。与发达国家相比,中国的粮食补贴政策有相似之处,但是在补贴模式、依据、标准等方面存在着计算复杂、具体操作不到位等问题,需要在借鉴的基础上,不断完善调整中国的粮食补贴政策。     

Assessment of natural resources and the policy of subsidies in grain production

Based on the analysis on the status quo of natural resources input in Brain production and on the policy of Brain subsidies, this paper puts forward a new idea - establishing grain subsidies through assessing the value of the natural resources in Brain production. The assessment of the natural resources in Brain production provides rationale and reference standard for the policy of Brain subsidies, which will promote the sustainable use of natural resources accordingly. This paper concludes： （1） it is necessary for the grain subsidies to assess the full value of natural resources, including economic value, ecological value and social value： （2） the government should give farmers direct subsidies or environment subsidies according to the economic and ecological value of natural resources in grain production, （3） the social value of natural resources can be realized by establishing the country social security system, taking the social value as the criterion for the payment for part of farmers＇ insurance.     

Expectation errors and exchange-rate volatility

Exchange-rate volatility may be attributable to shifting market expectations, even in the absence of exogenous or policy induced shocks. The response of optimizing monetary policy to transitory deviations from rational expectations is examined. The effects of such deviations are shown to be enduring, their magnitude depending inter alia on the relative weight given by the authorities to output growth and price stability, and to differ qualitatively from overshooting of the Dornbusch type.     

Disintegration of Russian Grain Markets in Transition: Political and Economic Dimensions

Between 1990 and 1996 the share of interregionally traded grain in the total amount of grain domestically available in the Russian Federation was reduced significantly. Much evidence indicates that the decline of the domestic grain trade has mainly been the result of strict control by regional authorities following their own agricultural market policy, of a lack of market institutions, and of uncertain macroeconomic conditions, thus creating a favourable environment only for increasing barter trade. In addition to the weakness of the federal government, which has not been able to enforce the basic rules necessary for the development of a functioning domestic market, the outcome of privatisation of state grain marketing organisations has accelerated the emergence of fragmented Russian grain markets. Regional authorities have managed to gain control over the newly privatised enterprises. This has facilitated the creation of regional monopolies and the isolation of local markets. In addition, increasing transaction costs in interregional trade due to the rise of barter trade have led to a contraction of the trade volume. After the financial crisis of 1998 these disintegrative tendencies have been strengthened further. In this difficult situation only close cooperation between reform-oriented regions can help to create conditions which facilitate the emergence of a domestic grain market in the long run.     

我国粮食生产补偿政策对粮食生产的影响

运用DEA方法测算2004—2011年我国粮食生产补偿政策的效率。结果显示:我国粮食生产补偿政策的实施对粮食生产效率提高的影响并不显著,且呈反复波动趋势。根据我国分地区逐步推进粮食生产补偿政策实施的特征,运用双差分模型对我国粮食生产补偿政策的实施效果进行评价,分析了其对粮食产量增长的政策影响。结果显示,我国粮食补贴政策对粮食产量的提高有正面效应,但其长期效应有待研究。     

粮食补贴政策的协同效应分析

从世界范围来看,农业补贴的核心是粮食补贴。运用灰色关联分析法,从我国现行粮食补贴政策的实施效果分析来看,在提高粮食产量和增加种粮农民收入上,生产性专项补贴与农资综合直补比直接补贴更有成效,直补政策在增加农民收入方面更具优势。我国应该合理整合各项补贴政策,发挥其协同效应,以保障粮食增产和农民增收两大目标的实现。     

Fiscal Decentralization and Political Budget Cycles

We analyze a problem à la Rogoff where incumbents can distort fiscal policy to signal their competency, but where fiscal policy can be centralized or decentralized. Our main focus is on how the equilibrium probability that fiscal policy is distorted in any region (the political budget cycle, PBC) differs across fiscal regimes. With centralization, there are generally two effects that change the probability of a PBC. One is the possibility of selective distortion: the incumbent can be reelected with the support of just a majority of regions. The other is a cost diversification effect, which is present unless costs are perfectly correlated across regions. Both these effects work in the same direction, with the general result that the PBC probability is lower under centralization when decentralization also involves PBC. Welfare analysis shows that voters tend to be better off when the PBC probability is lower, so voters prefer centralization when decentralization involves PBC. Our results are robust to a number of changes in the specification of the model.     

Politics and the UK's monetary policy

This paper examines whether politics causes regime shifts in deviations from the optimal monetary policy in the United Kingdom. After using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to construct the welfare-maximizing policy rule and deviations from the optimal Taylor rule, we show that politics does indeed play an important role in explaining these deviations. In addition to politics, unemployment rates account for regime shifts in the Taylor rule deviations.