Homogeneity and symmetry testing when the error distribution has fat tails

The Laitinen (1978) and Meisner (1979) experiments are extended to error distributions that are fat-tailed mixtures of normal distributions.     

The devil dwells in the tails

This paper explores firm growth rate distribution in a Gibrat’s Law context. It is novel in two respects. First, rather than limiting the analysis to a focus on the conditional mean, we investigate the entire shape of the distribution. Second, we show that differences in the firm growth rate process between large and small firms are highly circumstantial and depend on the industry dynamics. The data used include more than 9,000 Danish manufacturing, services and construction firms. We provide robust evidence indicating that firm growth studies should concentrate less on explaining means and instead focus on other parts of the firm growth rate distribution.     

Heavy tails and upper-tail inequality: The case of Russia

Motivated, in part, by the recent surge of interest in robust inequality measurement, cross-country inequality comparisons, applications of heavy-tailed distributions and the study of global and upper-tail inequality, this paper focuses on robust analysis of heavy-tailedness properties and inequality in the upper tails of income distribution in Russia, as measured, mainly, by its tail indices. The study is based on recently developed approaches to robust inference on the degree of heavy-tailedness and their implications for the analysis of upper-tail inequality discussed in the paper. Among other results, the paper provides robust estimates of heavy-tailedness parameters and tail indices for Russian income distribution and their comparisons with the benchmark values in developed economies reported in the previous literature. The estimates point out to important similarity between heavy-tailedness properties of income distribution and their implications for the analysis of upper-tail income inequality in Russia and those in developed markets.     

Government policy and the probability of coordination failures

This paper introduces an approach to the study of optimal government policy in economies characterized by a coordination problem and multiple equilibria. Such models are often criticized as not being useful for policy analysis because they fail to assign a unique prediction to each possible policy choice. We employ a selection mechanism that assigns, ex ante, a probability to each equilibrium indicating how likely it is to obtain. We show how such a mechanism can be derived as the natural result of an adaptive learning process. This approach leads to a well-defined optimal policy problem, and has important implications for the conduct of government policy. We illustrate these implications using a simple model of technology adoption under network externalities.     

The tale of the tails: Canadian income inequality in the 1980s and 1990s

Abstract.  We present new evidence on levels and trends in after-tax income inequality in Canada between 1980 and 2000. We argue that existing data sources may miss changes in the tails of the income distribution, and that many of the changes in the income distribution have been in the tails. For this reason, we turn to an alternative source. In particular, we construct data on after-tax and transfer income using Census files augmented with predicted taxes based on information available from administrative tax data. Using these data, we find that Canadian after-tax inequality levels are substantially higher than has been previously recognized, primarily because income levels are lower at the bottom of the distribution than in commonly used survey data. We also find larger long-term increases in after-tax income inequality and far more variability over the economic cycle. This raises interesting questions about the role of the tax and transfer system in mitigating both trends and fluctuations in market income inequality.     

Log-concave probability and its applications

Summary. In many applications, assumptions about the log-concavity of a probability distribution allow just enough special structure to yield a workable theory. This paper catalogs a series of theorems relating log-concavity and/or log-convexity of probability density functions, distribution functions, reliability functions, and their integrals. We list a large number of commonly-used probability distributions and report the log-concavity or log-convexity of their density functions and their integrals. We also discuss a variety of applications of log-concavity that have appeared in the literature.Received: 31 December 2003, Revised: 22 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C40, D40, D80. Correspondence to: Ted BergstromWe thank Ken Binmore and Larry Samuelson for encouragement and suggestments.     

Changing the probability versus changing the reward

There are two means of changing the expected value of a risk: changing the probability of a reward or changing the reward. Theoretically, the former produces a greater change in expected utility for risk averse agents. This paper uses two formats of a risk preference elicitation mechanism under two decision frames to test this hypothesis. After controlling for decision error, probability weighting, and order effects, subjects, on average, are slightly risk averse and prefer an increase in the expected value of a risk due to increasing the probability over a compensated increase in the reward. There is substantial across-format inconsistency but very little within-format inconsistency at the individual level.     

Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

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High pressure and black clouds: Keynes and the frequentist theory of probability

The thesis of this paper is that Keynes wrote A Treatise onProbability in opposition to the frequentist theory of probability,systematised by John Venn, which denied any role for probabilityin decision theory. Keynes was interested in finding an alternativeconception of probability that could be utilised as a guideof life. To analyse this point, the paper considers Keynes'scriticisms of frequentist tradition in the two versions of hisFellowship dissertation, and in the published edition of hisTreatise. Keynes's project is then illustrated with the famousexample of whether or not to go out with one's umbrella in thesituation in which the pressure is high and the clouds are black.     

墨家管理思想与现代团队目标建设

墨家在当时是一个非常成功的团队,通过对墨家管理思想的潜心研究和创造性诠释,从中我们可以发现许多对现代团队目标建设的重要启示。首先,团队需要有一个使团队成员共同认同的目标,如何建立这样的一个目标。根据墨家思想,创造性的提出了“嫁接目标”之法;其次,首次提出了目标建设的重要作用“治乱”;再次,团队制度、人力资源管理、团队文化的有效建立,保障了团队目标的实现。     

The enduring allure of objective probability

Probability measures are properly considered subjective, if only as a result of the knowledge limitations of human experience. Even if objective probability can be demonstrated as an unambiguously verifiable property of the physical world, our necessarily imperfect access to such aspects of reality would necessitate the construction of subjective probability measures for examinations of human behavior. This paper will explore the distinction between subjective and purportedly objective probability in principle, and demonstrate that actual probabilities can only be subjective, at least ex ante. The paper will next examine the persistent efforts of philosophers, mathematicians, and particularly quantitatively-inclined social scientists, to construct and employ mistaken conceptions of purportedly objective probability. The neo-indeterminist interpretation of sub-atomic particle physics is addressed next, with its attempt to construct an objective-probabilistic account of reality based on the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. An explanation is suggested for the persistent allure of objective probability in the social sciences, which purports to offer a more economical and parsimonious basis for human behavior and the formation of expectations. The view that there are ontologically privileged, objectively-verifiable probabilities and expectations, will be examined and criticized. It appears to be one source of the discredited, though nonetheless widespread and persistent, belief in the efficacy and feasibility of central economic planning.     

Segmented labour markets and the estimation of wage functions

This paper uses a stratified random sample of private sector employees to estimate wage equations for both the male labour market as a whole and six ‘segments’ of the labour market, segement which are defined with respect to the industry and size characteristics of the employing establishmen. Highly conventional results are obtained when wage equations are estimated for the male labour market as a whole, or within two segements, comprising almost half the survey population. However, one can reject conclusively the hypothesis that the same estimating equation is appropriate for modelling wage determination in all segments and if a ‘human capital’ (HK) model is, within segements, tested against more appropriate alternative hypotheses for wage determination using the Davidson and Mackinnon (1981) methodology for the testing of non-nested hypotheses, the conclusion is that one should reject the HK specification and not reject the alternative.

It is therefore argued that the disaggregation of labour market data reveals differences in the wage determination process that are not consistent with the view that labour markets are ‘dualistic’ but are consistent with the view that are segmented.     

Logistic regression and probability of default of developing countries debt

This paper presents a logistic regression model for determining the default probability of developing countries debt. The study incorporates 79 countries over a period of 19 years. The model predicted the default of Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina two years in advance. Results indicate that the model has high predictive power.     

How trade and capital restrictions affect the probability of a balance of trade disturbance

Free market economists argue that national authorities avoid restrictions on the free movement of goods, services and financial capital between countries. Yet, countries continually choose to restrict the flow of capital both into and out of the country. Why is this done? Is it done to protect the domestic banking system, to control the domestic money supply, to manage the exchange rate, to provide stability for internal markets or to avoid wide swings in the availability of capital? Are these controls effective in precluding wide swings in a country's international trade balance? This article uses panel data in a logit model to analyse policy choice with respect to an international trade and/or investment regime. The goal is to identify choices effective in reducing the likelihood of a severe Balance of Trade Disturbance (BTD) and determine if the appropriate choice is related to per capita income (pci).