A quantile approach to US GNP

In this paper we fitted a quantile self-exciting threshold autoregressive (QSETAR) time series model to the growth rate of real US GNP. We also presented a forecasting method for QSETAR models. This forecasting method makes it possible to obtain the predictive quantiles and predictive distribution function of x_t+m given x_t for m > 0, and hence any quantities of interest can be derived. Therefore, this new approach allows us to study the US GNP from a distribution point view, rather than from a mean point of view. The results obtained in this paper show that the method works very well in practice.     

Paying the expected externality for a price quote achieves bargaining efficiency

A seller and buyer have reservation prices x and y. Each has a subjective distribution on the other's reservation price. Paying an offer or the expected benefit the other participant receives from his offer induces honest price quotations, hence efficiency: sale iff y> x.     

Economic models based on Pareto and Gamma random variables

The distribution of products of random variables arises explicitly in economics and related areas. This has increased the need to have available the widest possible range of statistical results on products of random variables. In this note, the exact distribution of the product XY is derived when X and Y are independent random variables and arise from the two most applied models for economic data. The associated estimation procedures and percentage points are provided.     

PUBLIC SERVICE PERSPECTIVES ON REFORMS OF ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION AND SUPPLY: A MODULAR ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT ** : This article analyzes organizational change in electricity distribution and retail businesses and its impact on public service issues. Organizational change has resulted from the European electricity directives, especially the EU Electricity directive 2003/54/EC , which has imposed major transformations on these activities, requiring legal unbundling of electricity distribution networks by 1 July 2007. Organizational change has also resulted from an adaptation of companies to the newly competitive environment. This has led to a diversity of organizational choices across Europe. We analyze this diversity by using a modular approach, which decomposes reforms in electricity distribution and retail into logical ‘blocks’. We then examine how European countries have dealt with two policy and regulatory issues related to customer protection in that new environment: the regulation of quality of distribution, which is a task of regulators, and energy affordability policies for vulnerable customers, which are a central aspect of public service policies in the electricity sector.     

Financing constraints on the size distribution of industrial firms: the Chinese experience

We investigate whether financing constraints affect the size distribution of Chinese industrial firms from 1998 to 2007. Although the firm size distribution does not follow Zipf distribution in China, it is approaching Zipf distribution over time. In general, financing constraints have a robustly negative effect on the size distribution of firms. Furthermore, firms in Western China grow significantly more equally after controlling for financing constraints. However, the effect of financing constraints in Central China is significantly negative, and the effect of financing constraints on firm size distribution in Eastern China is insignificant. We thus expect a non-linear relationship between financing constraints and firm size distribution.     

Estimating endogenous switching regression model with a flexible parametric distribution function: application to Korean housing demand

This study introduces Johnson's S_U -normal distribution which can accommodate the flexibility of true error distribution to obtain consistent estimates in an endogenous switching regression model. Simulation results indicate that the S_U -normal model outperforms the normal model for the consistency of estimators when the error distribution is nonnormal. Korean housing demand model estimated by the S_U -normal model also outperforms the normal model in terms of parameter estimates and graphical predictions.     

Imitation processes with small mutations

This note characterizes the impact of adding rare stochastic mutations to an “imitation dynamic,” meaning a process with the properties that absent strategies remain absent, and non-homogeneous states are transient. The resulting system will spend almost all of its time at the absorbing states of the no-mutation process. The work of Freidlin and Wentzell [Random Perturbations of Dynamical Systems, Springer, New York, 1984] and its extensions provide a general algorithm for calculating the limit distribution, but this algorithm can be complicated to apply. This note provides a simpler and more intuitive algorithm. Loosely speaking, in a process with K strategies, it is sufficient to find the invariant distribution of a K×K Markov matrix on the K homogeneous states, where the probability of a transit from “all play i” to “all play j” is the probability of a transition from the state “all agents but 1 play i, 1 plays j” to the state “all play j”.     

Numerical Computation of Equilibrium Bid Functions in a First-Price Auction with Heterogeneous Risk Attitudes

We use numerical methods to compute Nash equilibrium (NE) bid functions for four agents bidding in a first-price auction. Each bidderi is randomly assigned:r _i [0,r _max], where 1 –r _i is the Arrow-Pratt measure of constant relative risk aversion. Eachr _i is independently drawn from the cumulative distribution function (·), a beta distribution on [0,r _max]. For various values of the maximum propensity to seek risk,r _max, the expected value of any bidder's risk characteristic,E (r _i ), and the probability that any bidder is risk seeking,P (r _i > 1), we determine the nonlinear characteristics of the (NE) bid functions.     

Tax Incidence in a Model with Efficiency Wages and Unemployment

Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to examine the effects of taxation on income distribution in a model with efficiency wages and involuntary unemployment. Central to our efficiency-wage model is the hypothesis that firms set wages above market-clearing levels, whenever the productivity of labor depends on the real wage paid by the firm, and unemployment. Within a two sector general equilibrium model we study the incidence of factor and commodity taxes on income distribution, and unemployment. Our findings differ substantially from those derived by the traditional neoclassical analysis, originally developed by Harberger, and as it has been extended by several authors.     

Optimal advertising of auctions

We study a symmetric independent private values auction model where the revenue-maximizing seller faces a cost cn of attracting n bidders to the auction. If the distribution of valuations possesses an increasing failure rate (IFR), the seller overinvests in attracting bidders compared to the social optimum. Conversely, if the distribution is DFR, the seller underinvests compared to the social optimum. If the distribution of valuations becomes more dispersed, both, a revenue- and a welfare-maximizing seller, attract more bidders.     

A Blotto game with multi-dimensional incomplete information

We examine a multi-dimensional incomplete information Colonel Blotto game in which each player’s n-tuple of battlefield valuations is drawn from a common n-variate joint distribution function that is uniform on the non-negative orthant of the surface of a sphere.     

The Intensity and Shape of Inequality: The ABG Method of Distributional Analysis

Inequality is anisotropic: its intensity varies by income level. We here develop a new tool, the isograph, to focus on local inequality and illustrate these variations. This method yields three coefficients which summarize the shape of inequality: a main coefficient, α, which measures inequality at the median; and two correction coefficients, β and γ, which pick up any differential curvature at the top and bottom of the distribution. The analysis of a set of 232 microdata samples from 41 different countries in the LIS datacenter archive allows us to provide a systematic overview of the properties of the ABG (α β γ) coefficients, which are compared to a set of standard indices including Atkinson indices, generalized entropy, Wolfson polarization, and the GB2 distribution. This method also provides a smoothing tool that reveals the differences in the shape of distributions (the strobiloid) and how these have changed over time.     

Inverse probability weighting to control for censoring in a post hoc analysis of quality-adjusted survival data from a clinical trial of temsirolimus for renal cell carcinoma

Abstract

Objectives: The Belgian third-party payer wishes to set reimbursement tariffs at a level that reflects the costs of orthotic braces. This article aims to calculate production and distribution costs of a prefabricated hard neck and knee brace and to explore whether Belgian tariffs and actual retail prices correspond with estimated costs of these two braces.

Methods: The cost model considered manufacturing costs, general overheads, research and development costs, warehousing costs, profit and distribution margins. Data were gathered from manufacturers, a production site visit, desk research, a decomposition of finished products and stakeholder interviews. The price year was 2007.

Results: The cost model estimated a retail price of €55–€150 for the neck brace, depending on assumptions. The estimated retail price for the neck brace was lower than the reimbursement tariff of €194 and the actual retail price of €241. The estimated retail price of €331–€694 for the knee brace was lower than the actual retail price of €948.

Conclusions: Actual retail prices and reimbursement tariffs for a neck brace and a knee brace exceeded prices based on estimated costs. Therefore, there appears to be scope for reducing tariffs.     

A retrospective evaluation of International Review of Economics and Finance (1992–2001)

International Review of Economics and Finance (IREF) was founded in 1992 and it has been well received by authors in the US and around the world. Over the 10 years of 1992–2001, the journal has published 281 articles by 418 authors from 265 different institutions in 26 countries. Articles are indexed by Finance Literature Index and are abstracted in EconLit and ABI/INFORM. The distribution of economics/finance articles, theory/empirical articles, geographic characteristics, and authorship characteristics are also presented.     

Group assessment of multivariate prior distributions

This paper addresses the problem of how to generate subjective prior distributions for p-dimensional unobservables. The context assumed is one in which you would like your multivariate prior distribution to reflect the combined views of some respected group. The recommended procedure is to administer a battery of p questions to each of N subjects in a homogeneous panel of randomly selected experts. Each subject answers questions each of which is about only one-dimensional (marginal) parameters. A multistage qualitative controlled feedback interrogation procedure is suggested. The N p-vectors of responses from the panel are combined to form the multivariate subjective prior density of the p-dimensional parameter.     

The wages‐and‐profits fund: Classical remnants in Marshall's early theory of distribution

Abstract

This paper traces the development of Marshall's theory of wages from the late 1860s to the publication of the first edition of the Principles of Economics (1890). Section one attempts to unravel Marshall's recollections of early intellectual influences, many of which were often distorted or wrong. Specifically, J. S. Mill's, Fleeming Jenkin's and J. H. von Thünen's influence on Marshall's early theory of distribution is explored in this context. In section two, analyses of Marshall's theory of wages in Economics of Industry (1879) and in other published writings is presented. This section draws attention to the similarity between Marshall's treatment of wages and the classical wage fund doctrine. In the final section, we re‐examine Marshall's defence of his theory of value and distribution in the Economics of Industry in the face of criticism of it by American economists S. M. MacVane and J. L. Laughlin in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.     

QUANTILE FORECASTS OF FINANCIAL RETURNS USING REALIZED GARCH MODELS*

This article applies the realized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which incorporates the GARCH model with realized volatility, to quantile forecasts of financial returns, such as Value‐at‐Risk and expected shortfall. Student's t‐ and skewed Student's t‐distributions as well as normal distribution are used for the return distribution. The main results for the S&P 500 stock index are: (i) the realized GARCH model with the skewed Student's t‐distribution performs better than that with the normal and Student's t‐distributions and the exponential GARCH model using the daily returns only; and (ii) using the realized kernel to take account of microstructure noise does not improve the performance.     

How and why transition made income inequality increase in urban Russia: A local study

Using sample surveys from the city of Taganrog in 1989 and 2000, we investigate household income, its composition, and its distribution in urban Russia. Income inequality increased greatly as real income at the lowest part of the distribution decreased considerably. Earnings are more concentrated in the upper part of the income distribution in 2000 than in 1989. For many households, public transfers, allowances, private transfers, or subsidiary earned income prevented income from falling further. However, Russia did not inherit from its Soviet past an efficient progressive tax system or programs to protect jobless workers and households facing severe drops in income. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 772–787.     

TRAINING,TURNOVER, AND SEARCH*

This article explores a model of firm‐specific training in a job search environment with labor turnover. The main substantive finding is a positive association between training and wages (when dispersed). The article then precisely characterizes how both wage dispersion and firm profitability depend on the flow value b≥ 0 of workers' unmatched time. It is shown that: (i) for all high values b, no equilibrium exists; (ii) for intermediate values b, multiple equilibria arise, where firms earn zero profits, and choose from a general wage distribution; (iii) for all lower values b, there is a unique equilibrium, with firms earning positive profits, and choosing from an atomless set of wages.