Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Interventions

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-Deutsche Mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.We are grateful to the Deutsche Bundesbank, Hauptabteilung Ausland for kindly providing, on a confidential base, the daily data on the official interventions of the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve, the latter only to the extent that they affected the net foreign position of the Bundesbank. Also, we want to thank Theo Nijman and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Opinions and errors are our own responsibility.     

美国联邦储备委员会的透明化趋势及论证

美国联邦储备委员会曾奉行私隐性原则,将货币政策长期笼罩在神秘面纱之后.1980年代以来,美联储开始走向开放和透明,尤其是2006年主张通货膨胀目标制的伯南克执掌美联储后,美联储透明度更是大为提升.美联储的透明化不是孤立的个案,而是世界范围内中央银行制度较为集中的变化趋势之一.透明化之所以成为中央银行制度变革的基本方向,是因为提高中央银行透明度,在经济上可以增强货币政策的有效性,在政治上则是宪政国家的根本要求.各国应结合本国国情选择中央银行制度的最优透明度.     

The Influence of Economists On the Federal Reserve Act

Many economists helped to lay the groundwork for the Federal Reserve. Some did important work analyzing the problems of the National Bank System and arguing for formation of a central bank in economics journals. At least as importantly, if not more so, some economists took an active role in the reform movement and provided help and advice with the actual Congressional bill. Among these are J. Lawrence Laughlin, who chaired a group that actively raised support for the Federal Reserve Act in Congressional districts, and H. Parker Willis, who served as an expert for the subcommittee which wrote the original draft of what became the Federal Reserve Act. More broadly, this episode illustrates the impact that intellectuals and ideas can have on actual events; the analysis contemporary economists did in academic journals and in more political activities before and after the panic of 1907 guided the actual formation of a working central bank (JEL B10, N21).     

次贷危机背景下美联储的危机政策理念

本文结合以往的危机干预经验,以美联储的次贷危机应对措施为重点,分析、归纳美联储危机政策操作的理念.在这次危机处理中,美联储秉持实用主义原则,在流动性工具上进行了大胆创新,注资范围也大大扩展,同时多次大幅度降息,这些激进的、创新的举措是与当前美联储所面对的复杂的、严峻的局面相称的.这些创新大大丰富了央行应对危机的手段,提高了解决危机的能力,但同时也可能带来道德风险问题.     

美联储超常规政策退出分析

2009年下半年以来,尤其是进入2010年,美联储超常规金融救助政策“退出”的迹象越来越明显。美联储的政策“退出”将选择先“数量”（缩减流动性投放、降低存款机构超额准备金水平）、后“价格”（加息）的路径。目前尚处于论证和测试的阶段。由于超常规政策退出面临多种困难和障碍,美联储的“退出”将是谨慎、缓慢、渐进的,并将根据经济前景和金融市场状况的变化进行调整。我国应密切跟踪美联储的政策动向,做好宏观调控预案,及时出台相应政策。     

美联储金融监管体制、影响及其启示

长期以来,美联储从本国利益出发制定经济监管政策,在美国和世界经济体系中创造了过量的信用,导致美元在全世界泛滥,美国人放弃储蓄,过度投资和消费;美国主体经济从制造业转向了非出口服务业;美国的债务,不管是从国家角度还是从个人角度都达到了前所未有的高度,这一切最终演变成了这次全球金融危机.对于中国这样的经济大国,一定要从中吸取教训,扬长避短,并建立科学发展的核心价值观.     

美联储应对金融危机的货币政策操作与效果

美国次贷危机发生后,银行体系遭受重创,信贷活动萎缩,市场利率上升,实体经济难以得到资金支持,美国经济陷入了衰退。为了刺激经济复苏,稳定金融市场,修复银行体系,美联储密集地进行货币政策操作,通过各种方式向市场注入流动性。本文对2007年以来美联储所采取的货币政策加以梳理,对其影响进行分析,并提出我国的应对之策。     

The President Versus the Senate: Appointments in the American System of Separated Powers and the Federal Reserve

For politicians, appointments are an instrument of policy influence.By installing their representatives in an institution, politicianscan count on policy influence for the duration of their appointees'terms. Given the stakes, the occasional controversy regardingnominees is understandable. On the whole, however, nominationsare not controversial; in fact, Senate confirmation votes areoften unanimous. Nevertheless, the Senate can have substantialinfluence in the appointment process. Using a formal model,this article examines how the president and Senate strategicallybargain with one another within the confines of the FederalReserve appointment process to influence monetary policy. Witha new way to estimate monetary policy preferences, this articleshows empirically that policy influence occurs via appointments.     

A directional analysis of Federal Reserve predictions of growth in unit labor costs and productivity

Existing evidence suggests that the Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation imply asymmetric loss, as the Fed has significantly over‐predicted inflation for the post‐Volcker period. Consistent with such evidence, we show that the Federal Reserve forecasts of growth in both unit labor costs and productivity, while directionally accurate for 1983–2003, imply asymmetric loss. That is, the forecasts of growth in unit labor costs are more (less) accurate in predicting the upward (downward) moves. The forecasts of growth in productivity, however, are less (more) accurate in predicting the upward (downward) moves. The interpretation of our findings may be that, in achieving long‐term price stability, the Fed is cautious not to incorrectly predict the upward (downward) moves in growth in unit labor costs (productivity).     

Cyclical variation in the short-run Federal Reserve reaction function, 1969–1978

This note reports an empirical study of the Federal Reserve reaction function, as indicated by changes in the Federal funds interest rate, for the period from 1969–1978. In particular we examine whether changes in the funds rate have shown responses to underlying economic conditions which vary on a cyclical basis. We find that the Fed reacted more strongly to downturns than to recovery, with its response during the early recovery phase perhaps even procyclical. We also find that response to changes in inflation was less significant than reaction to output fluctuations.     

The attrition rate of United States coins in circulation: some evidence from Federal Reserve data

The United States Mint recently conducted a coin attrition study designed to estimate the rate at which coins are withdrawn from circulation in order to better plan coin production. This paper reports on the analysis of a large sample of coins taken from the United States Federal Reserve Bank cash offices used to estimate coin attrition rates by denomination. The dollar value of the circulating stock of coin available to serve the needs of commerce is estimated to be $11.8 billion (£7.6 billion).     

Federal deficits and the conduct of monetary policy

The persistent Federal deficits of the seventies and eighties have been accompanied by economic analysis of those deficits. One conclusion from this work is that deficits force the Federal Reserve to increase the money stock. However, empirical studies have failed to detect this link between deficits and money growth. This article attempts to resolve this contradiction through analysis of the influence of deficits on the instruments actually employed in conducting monetary policy. It is found that persistent deficits do lead to reserve growth but not through the expected interest-rate channel.     

浅谈存款准备金制度和我国当前调整存款准备金率的原因

存款准备金是传统的三大货币政策工具之一。中央银行调整存款准备金率可以影响金融机构的信贷扩张能力,从而间接调控货币供应量,影响社会经济的发展。本文阐述了存款准备金制度的发展演变和作用,并以此来分析最近一段时间来我国存款准备金率上调对经济的影响。     

Intriguing pendula: founding metaphors in the analysis of economic fluctuations

The paper is an inquiry into the definition of the early econometricprogramme, namely into the discussions which Frisch and Schumpeterheld in the early 1930s about the most suitable model for representinginnovations, change and equilibrium in economics. The argument and its framework are briefly presented in thefirst section. The 1931 correspondence between the two foundersof the Econometric Society is discussed in the second section.It provides a magnificent example of the importance of rhetoricsin economics, of the heuristic role of constitutive metaphorsin a research programme and of the difficulties in definingthe most suitable mathematical formalism for dealing with cyclesand structural change. The third section presents the conclusionof the story: the bifurcation between the resulting contributionsmade by Frisch (Propagation problems and impulse problems indynamic economics, pp. 171-205 in Koch, K. (ed.), Economic Essaysin Honour of Gustav Cassel, London, Frank Cass, 1933) and Schumpeter(Business Cycles, New York, McGraw, 1939; and the posthumousvolume, History of Economic Analysis, London, Routledge, 1954).Finally, the fourth section presents an alternative epilogue,highlighting some of the hidden implications of these verbalaccounts of pendula as the founding metaphor for business cycles. The paper is based upon as yet unpublished papers that werefound in Frisch's Collections (Oslo University Library and Frisch'sRommet at the Institute of Economics) and Schumpeter's Collection(Harvard University).     

浅谈存款准备金制度和我国当前调整存款准备金率的原因

存款准备金是传统的三大货币政策工具之一.中央银行调整存款准备金率可以影响金融机构的信贷扩张能力,从而间接调控货币供应量,影响社会经济的发展.本文阐述了存款准备金制度的发展演变和作用,并以此来分析最近一段时间来我国存款准备金率上调对经济的影响.