Understanding the culture of markets: A reflection

This essay examines Virgil Storr’s (2013) Understanding the Culture of Markets, particularly the relationship between cultures and constitutions and the particulars of the ideal-typical ‘spirit’ of capitalism. Culture cannot be viewed as a constitution, I argue, because of fundamental differences between the two types of guidance to conduct, both for the actors within them and the researchers studying them. I also consider possibly conflicting interpretations of the idea of the animating spirit(s) of a market in the context of Storr’s example of the economic culture of the Bahamas.     

Growth in India’s Service Sector: Implications of Structural Breaks

The paper is an attempt to identify the multiple structural breaks in India’s GDP, as well as its main growth enhancing sector i.e., services and its components and subsequently calculate the growth rate in different regimes. The paper uses the Bai-Perron (Econom 66(1), 1998, J Appl Econom 18(1), 2003) methodology of estimating multiple endogenous structural breaks (both pure and partial) in India’s service sector and its components and GDP during 1950–2010. Further, the paper uses the Boyce (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 48:385–391, 1986) methodology of estimating kinked exponential model of the growth rate, and further uses the Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (J Business Econ Stat 10:271–287, 1992) test and the Lumsdaine and Pappel (Rev Econ Stat 79:212–218, 1997) test to check for the stationarity in the presence of structural breaks. The data used in this paper are the components of subsectors of services GDP and GDP at factor cost (with 2004–2005 as base). It is found that there is very little difference between the estimation of pure and partial structural break dates in India’s services GDP and its subsectors and four such breaks have been identified with help of Bai-Perron (Econom 66(1), 1998, J Appl Econom 18(1), 2003) methodology. The Boyce methodology of estimation of growth rates finds that mainly in the third and fourth regimes, the growth rates are highest in the subsectoral as well as at the aggregate levels of services GDP. The Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock test (J Business Econ Stat 10:271–287, 1992) and the extended Lumsdaine and Pappel test (Rev Econ Stat 79:212–218, 1997) cannot negate the presence of unit root in the data, irrespective of the presence of multiple structural breaks. The paper concludes with the identification of four broad regimes of growth of India’s services GDP and in the subsectors with possible explanations thereof.

     

Price Discovery and Efficiency of Indian Agricultural Commodity Futures Market: An Empirical Investigation

This study examines the price discovery process and relative efficiency of ten most liquid agricultural commodities’ futures contracts, traded on the largest agricultural commodity exchange of India (National Commodity and Derivative Exchange Limited). Three different common factor methodologies—component share method (Gonzalo and Granger in J Bus Econ Stat 13:27–35, 1995), information share method (Hasbrouck in J Financ 50:1175–1199, 1995), and modified information share method (Lien and Shrestha in J Futures Mark 29:377–395, 2009)—have been employed to determine the extent of price discovery contribution by spot and futures markets. The sample consists of daily data for the period from January 1, 2009 to October 20, 2015. Stationarity and Cointegration test results reveal that spot and futures prices are integrated and cointegrated for all commodities. The price discovery results show that the futures market leads the spot market in case of six commodities, i.e., castor seed, coriander, cottonseed oilcake, soy oil, sugarM and turmeric. Whereas, in the case of four commodities (chana (chickpea), guar seed, jeera, and mustard seed), price discovery takes place in the spot market. Therefore, it could be inferred that futures market is more efficient in price discovery of agricultural commodities. Policymakers could use these results to design futures contracts on other commodities or to plan concrete policies to curb speculation without hampering the efficiency of the agricultural commodity derivatives market.

     

THE ASCENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION AS AN ACTOR IN THE MONETARY INTEGRATION PROCESS IN THE 1960s

This paper discusses macroeconomic and monetary policy making at the European Commission in the 1960s. The Commission, in its analysis, focused strongly on economic imbalances in the Community, as they could threaten the common market project. In order to strengthen the system of economic governance of the Community, the Commission advocated an improved monetary cooperation, in line with the internal logic of the integration process. This contrasted with the view of the central bankers, who took the international monetary system as the framework for their analysis. This paper shows the ascent of the Commission as an actor in the monetary area, notwithstanding the relatively limited provisions of the European Economic Community Treaty.     

Fisher’s Effect: An Empirical Examination Using India’s Time Series Data

The study examines the Fisher’s hypothesis using India’s macroeconomic data with main objective of ascertaining the empirical relationship between nominal interest rate and expected inflation. The study collected monthly time series data on interest rate (lending rate) and CPI growth rate (inflation) from Reserve Bank of India’s database spanning from 1990M01 to 2015M03. To achieve the objective, the study first examined the univariate stochastic properties of the series using test that assumed the presence of structural: Zivot and Andrews (J Bus Econ Stat 10(3):251–270, 1992) and Perron (J Econ 80:355–385, 1997) on one hand and those that assumed no break: Elliot et al. (Econometrica 64:813–836, 1996) and Kwiatkowski et al. (J Econom 54:159–178, 1992) on the other hand. The result for the univariate stochastic properties revealed that inflation is level stationary whereas lending rate is differenced stationary. This finding is consistent with the two tests considered as mentioned above. To examined the Fisher’s effect, given the result of the univariate stochastic properties, the study checked the multivariate counterpart using test that assumed break; Gregory and Hensen (J Econom 70:99–126, 1996) and the one that assumed no break; Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econom 16:289–326, 2001). The result reveals the absence of long run equilibrium between nominal interest rate and inflation for the full and sub-samples which is against Fisher’s proposition. This finding can be attributed to the following reasons: firstly, the conduct of monetary policy by RBI is passive; that is, the policy rate response less than proportionate to change in inflation. Secondly, the presence of distortion in the interest rate pass-through channel makes the sign, speed and magnitude of monetary policy uncertain and finally, the dominant of informal financial sector in India that makes short term policy rate ineffective monetary policy instrument. Therefore the study concludes that the conduct of monetary policy is responsible for the rejection of Fisher’s hypothesis in India.

     

Does Multinationality Affect the Propensity to Innovate? An Analysis of the Third UK Community Innovation Survey

The paper is developed at the interface between internationalization and innovation studies. It utilizes data on innovation from the UK Community Innovation Surveys 3 and 2 (CIS3 and CIS2) to assess whether multinationality affects the innovation propensity of surveyed enterprises. The indicators of innovation propensity—our dependent variables—are taken from the following CIS sets of variables: innovation outputs; innovation inputs; innovation outcomes (patent applications); innovation continuity/sustainability. The latter element is considered to be the ability of the enterprise to sustain innovation over a long period of time and the relevant variable is derived from both CIS3 and 2 data. This allows the paper to introduce dynamic elements into the analysis. Four hypotheses are developed and tested. Our main hypothesis states that multinationality per se (i.e. being part of a multinational company network) affects the propensity to innovate. We also test for three sub‐hypotheses related to characteristics of multinationality: belonging to a group vs being independent; degree of multinationality; being part of a foreign vs domestic multinational. The results show that all those CIS enterprises that belong to a multinational corporation—whether UK or foreign—are more likely to exhibit innovation propensity; they are also more likely to engage in innovation activities on a continuous basis.     

Growth Convergence and Regional Inequality in India (1981–2012)

There has been significant research effort to study the impact of liberalisation on growth and distribution in India. Using per capita income (PCI) data for the period 1981–82 to 2012–13 (28 regions for the entire period and 31 regions for 2001–2 to 2012–13) at the sub-national level in India we examine the claims of divergence and stratification (twin peak formation) as has been claimed in some of the recent literature. We confirm that there is divergence of PCI. We present the first set of tests of multimodality in the Indian convergence debate using Silverman (J R Stat Soc 43:97–99, 1981; Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Monographs on statistics and applied probability, Chapman & Hall, London, 1986) procedure. Weighted kernel density plots and multi-modal tests reveal that there is emergence of “multi-modes” in the distribution of PCI, not just twin modes. The spatial pattern of growth reflects an area of stagnation in the eastern-central belt—Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa, and in the north eastern part of India—Assam and Manipur and a decline in Mizoram. Sikkim demonstrates fastest growth, whereas Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu (among the big states) and Himachal Pradesh, and Andaman and Nicobar (small state and Union Territories) maintained their position. Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh (among the southern states), Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland (among the north eastern states) along with Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, moved up in the growth ladder. The continuation of growth stagnation in most of the BIMARU states poses a challenge to received theories of growth convergence and raises developmental concerns that the increased play of market forces in the Indian economy have not been able to overcome.

     

The Dynamics Between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from India

This study examines the causal nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty. In this regard, conventional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models are used to measure inflation uncertainty and Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66:47–78, 1998; J Appl Econom 18:1–22, 2003) test is used to identify structural breaks in inflation. The empirical evidence derived from the monthly data for the period from June 1961 to April 2011 suggests that the measure of inflation uncertainty obtained from SV model is more reliable than the measure obtained from GARCH model and also the causal nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty seems to be significantly conditional upon the measure of uncertainty used. The structural break test identifies four episodes of inflation during the sample period, and the causality between inflation and its variability varies across different episodes. The inflation and its variance seem to be independent of each other during the first two regimes that cover the period from 1960 to 1980 and on the contrary, during the later period largely bidirectional causality is observed. Further, inflation seems to exert positive impact on inflation uncertainty, whereas inflation uncertainty has negative impact on inflation.

     

Catalan firms and the distribution of products in Europe

The food industry sector has seen major changes in the ways it needs to compete. Spain became linked to the European Community in the early 1970s by an adherence treaty which regulated food exports to the member countries. Subsequently, when Spain became a full European Community member in January 1986, both exports and imports to and from countries (Mediterranean or otherwise) became regulated. There had not previously been a tradition of trade links with most of these countries. After 10 years of full coexistence with the other European members, it is possible to test the effect of free circulation of goods, the major presence of community multinationals in the markets, the restructuring of the food industry sector, and the penetration of Spanish products in European markets. At present, the objectives of economic convergence contemplated in the Maastricht Treaty call for the control of macroeconomic variables (particularly inflation) which affect the food industry (by virtue of its special characteristics) far more than the remaining sectors because of its peculiarities. This paper is a summary and extension of a broader study conducted by Lourdes Viladomiu (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), María de los Angeles Gil Estallo (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Jordi Melé (Universitat de Barcelona), and Manuel Cantos (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) financed by the Fundació Empresa i Ciència of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.     

Technical Synergies and Trade-Offs Between Abatement of Global and Local Air Pollution

In this paper, we explore the synergies and tradeoffs between abatement of global and local pollution. We build a unique dataset of Swedish combined heat and power plants with detailed boiler-level data 2001–2009 on not only production and inputs but also on emissions of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and \(\hbox {NO}_{\mathrm{x}}\). Both pollutants are regulated by strict policies in Sweden. \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) is subject to the European Union Emission Trading Scheme and Swedish carbon taxes; \(\hbox {NO}_{\mathrm{x}}\)—as a precursor of acid rain and eutrophication—is regulated by a heavy fee. Using a quadratic directional output distance function, we characterize changes in technical efficiency as well as patterns of substitutability in response to the policies mentioned. The fact that generating units face a trade-off between the pollutants indicates the need for policy coordination.     

The constitutional future of the European Union

The formal distinction between a treaty and a constitution is much less important than the question of who is authorized to interpret and amend it. The judges of the European Court of Justice interpret the Treaty by simple majority, while unanimity of the member-states would be required to reverse these decisions. The European Union needs a Court whose judges are empanelled from, and selected by, the highest courts of the member-states. The Treaty on European Union violates three fundamental constitutional principles: (i) the principle of the separation of powers, (ii) the democratic principle, and (iii) the principle of subsidiarity.     

“Deja Vu All Over Again:” Constitutional Economics and European legal Integration

Existing theories of regional integration do not satisfactorily explain European legal integration. Like the bears’ porridge, one explains too much, another too little, and yet another requires unnecessary information. Constitutional economics, viewing regional integration as a process producing a constitution, is able to explain both momentum toward and resistance to legal integration in a parsimonious fashion. Further, it produces a unique analysis of the current circumstances of European legal integration, revealing that the Kompetenz–Kompetenz debate addresses the fundamental dilemma of compound republics. This also discloses that European integration has produced a novel answer to this old question.

Questions About the Initiative of the European Commission Concerning the Awarding and Compulsory Competitive Tendering of Public Service Concessions

The ruling of the European Commission is that the award of contracts by regional or local authorities for the provision of services of general economic interest must be done by way of competitive tendering. Such contracts must not be awarded to the authority's own public enterprises or to any other enterprise, including by means of unilateral State act, without a call for tenders, a practice that had previously been common in many Member States. Public service concessions are also subject to the competition rules of the EC Treaty. Should the European Commission enact a directive concerning compulsory competitive tendering, this would result, for several Member States, in a serious change of paradigm as regards the awarding of public service concessions. Against this background, this article will attempt to find answers to the following questions: —How is the present relationship of the regional or local authority with its own public enterprise to be considered? —Are there any limits to applying the rules on competition of the EC Treaty to public service concessions? —What kind of positive and negative effects concerning economic efficiency and supply of specific public services result from the awarding of public service concessions and from compulsory competitive tendering? —What kind of, and what amount of, transaction costs result from compulsory competitive tendering and from the awarding of concessions? —Does competitive tendering work properly, and are public tenderers given equal opportunities? —Are there any alternatives to compulsory competitive tendering that would achieve an efficient market performance and provide sufficient supply?     

Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries

The introduction of the Euro in January 1999 consecrated the achievement of a single currency system within most of the European Union. Despite the dramatic change in the macroeconomic dynamics that this event is likely to have caused, the literature has paid little attention to testing for the existence of such a break and establishing its qualitative characteristics.This empirical study, based on the Blanchard and Quah (1989) methodology for seven countries having adopted the Euro currency and three members of the European Union which have preserved their own currencies reveals:

• i)very significant breaks for the Euro countries around 1992 – the year of adoption of the Maastricht Treaty – and 2000, not shared by the three non-Euro countries.
• ii)an increase in the influence of supply shocks on the dynamics of output, unemployment and the interest rate after the breaks for the Euro countries, along with an increase of the part played by monetary disturbances within total demand at long horizons. These conclusions do not generally hold for the three non-Euro countries.

     

Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union

The prevalence of different fiscal regimes is important both for practical policy reasons and to assess fiscal sustainability, notably for European Union countries. The purpose of this article is to assess, with a panel data set, the empirical evidence concerning the existence of Ricardian fiscal regimes in EU-15 countries. The results give support to the Ricardian fiscal regime hypothesis throughout the sample period, and for sub-samples accounting for the dates of the Maastricht Treaty and for the setting-up of the Stability and Growth Pact. Furthermore, electoral budget cycles also seem to play a relevant role in fiscal behaviour.

EMU, MAASTRICHT, AND THE 1996 INTERGOVERNMENTAL CONFERENCE

This paper presents various economic approaches to achieving monetary union, particularly in the context of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as envisaged in the 1991 Maastricht Treaty. It evaluates the implications of Maastricht, given the economic convergence criteria embodied in the Treaty, in terms of economic policy for individual Member States and for the European Union (EU) as a whole. The paper assesses the EU's options for amending the Maastricht Treaty at its scheduled inter-governmental conference (IGC).     

Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?

This study examines nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus in Africa. The study employs a novel dynamic panel threshold regression method developed by Kremer et al. [(2013). Inflation and growth: New evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis. Empirical Economics, 44, 861–878. doi:10.1007/s00181-012-0553-9] that extends Hansen’s [(1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 93, 345–368. doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1] non-dynamic panel threshold model as well as Caner and Hansen [(2004). Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold model. Econometric Theory, 20, 813–843. doi:10.1017/S0266466604205011] cross-sectional threshold model to deal with potential endogeneity problems. The findings of this study confirm a non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth in Africa. More specifically, the results show that the inflation threshold values are 6.7% for the whole sample, 9% for the sub-sample of low-income countries and 6.5% for middle-income countries. The regression results suggest that relatively lower level of inflation appears to be in favor of higher economic growth only in African middle-income countries. However, inflation rate beyond a certain threshold is more likely to be detrimental to economic growth for all the cases. These results are robust by considering additional control variables and using three-year averages of the data. The findings of this study may be useful to African monetary policymakers as they decide on inflation targets to adopt to avoid the detrimental effects of high inflation while reaping the growth benefits of low inflation.     

Finance–growth nexus: does causality withstand financial liberalization? Evidence from cointegrated VAR

The main finding of the paper is that, contrary to Rousseau and Wachtel (Economic growth and financial depth. Is the relationship extinct already? UNU-Wider discussion paper no. 2005/10, 2005), a long-run equilibrium relationship between financial and economic development is identified with data up to 2006—well over the financial openness boom of the nineties—in countries whose history is characterized by numerous years of high inflation and/or episodes of crisis or other structural change. Also, financial openness, or lack thereof, proves to be an important feature both in explaining differences in sensitivity of financial development to capital accumulation and in determining the direction of causality between financial and economic development. The paper finds that bidirectional causality between economic and financial development is not as frequent an outcome as in Luintel and Khan (J Dev Econ 60:381–405, 1999), and in several cases, Joan Robinson’s (The generalization of the general theory in the rate of interest, and other essays, Macmillan, London, pp 67–142, 1952) statement on the primacy of economic development over finance is supported by the estimations.     

Germany and Italy: conflicting policy paradigms towards European monetary integration?

In the literature on European monetary integration Germany and Italy are mostly strongly contrasted. However, this paper argues that there were important similarities between the policy paradigms in these two countries, in particular if a broader historical perspective is adopted. This work analyses the policy paradigms towards European monetary integration in Italy and Germany. Moreover, it contextualises these paradigms into the national institutional setting: while Germany was characterised by power sharing institutions, Italy featured power fragmentation (something which also affected the economic performance of both countries). There were significant differences between the policy paradigms of foreign policy-makers and economic policy-makers. Foreign policy makers, in both countries, under the influence of a European federalist vision, were strongly in favour of European monetary integration. These beliefs of foreign policy decision makers were crucial in charting EMU policy at history-making moments. The pro EMU policy paradigms of foreign policymakers contrasted, during most of the period covered, with the more sceptical beliefs of economic policy makers. In both countries, economic policy-makers, at different moments, had doubts whether enough “convergence” had been reached to make a more stable exchange rate system sustainable.