The reverse home-market effect in exports: a cross-country study of the extensive margin of exports

Do small countries have higher proportions of firms that export in manufacturing industries than large ones? As small countries are well known to be more open than large ones, it may appear uncontroversial to claim that the answer is yes. Nevertheless, this contradicts predictions from many standard trade models positing a home-market effect in the number of manufacturing firms and exporters. In this article, I present a theoretical model where a home-market effect in the number of firms coexists with a reverse home-market effect in the number of exporters: as in standard models, the number of firms in a small country relative to that in a large one is lower than relative income, but, in contrast to standard models, the relative number of exporters is larger. As a consequence, small countries will have higher proportions firms that export in manufacturing industries—a claim I support empirically.     

Small firms and local economic development in South London

A growing body of literature has identified a number of potential constraints on small firm growth. Arguably, the severity of these constraints is closely related to the differing fortunes of industries and firms and the extent of localised external economies or diseconomies. This paper looks at the constraints facing manufacturing and business service firms in a large urban area. The paper draws on findings from a survey of small firms in Croydon. Data from the survey reveal some differences between small manufacturing and service firms in their experience of the urban environment. Physical constraints on expansion and labour shortages appear to be hindering small manufacturing firms in Croydon. Deficiencies in specific niches of the local business service sector may be preventing small business service firms from complementing and enhancing their internal capabilities. The problems facing small firms in Croydon and the sorts of local policy initiatives being developed are likely to be applicable to other large urban areas.     

Measuring economic localization: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data

This paper examines location patterns of Japan’s manufacturing industries using a unique firm-level dataset on the geographic location of firms. Following the point-pattern approach proposed by Duranton and Overman (2005), we find the following. First, about half of Japan’s manufacturing industries can be classified as localized and the number of localized industries is largest for a distance level of 40 km or less. Second, several industries in the textile mill products sector are among the most localized, which is similar to findings for the UK, suggesting that there exist common factors across countries determining the concentration of industrial activities. Third, the distribution of distances between entrant (exiting) firms and remaining firms is, in most industries, not significantly different from a random distribution. These results suggest that most industries in Japan neither become more localized nor more dispersed over time and are in line with similar findings by Duranton and Overman (2008) for the UK. Fourth, a comparison with the service sector indicates that the share of localized industries is higher in manufacturing than in services, although the extent of localization among the most localized manufacturing industries is smaller than that among the most localized service industries, including financial service industries.     

Job Creation and Destruction in South Africa

Analysts of the South African labour market have mainly used household surveys to analyse the labour market. It has been more difficult to explore the labour demand of firms, as a result of limited data availability. We use the Quarterly Employment Statistics survey, an enterprise survey conducted by Statistics South Africa, to explore how South African firms create and destroy jobs, thereby shedding light on many of the policy questions that are relevant in a high unemployment society like South Africa. We find that job creation and destruction rates are similar to those found in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries. There is little evidence that labour legislation creates rigidities that prevent firms from hiring or firing workers. We also find that larger firms are better net creators of jobs than small firms and that net job creation rates are negative in manufacturing. Our research has important policy implications – particularly for the South African National Planning Commission's 2030 plan, in which new jobs are envisaged to come mainly from small‐ and medium‐sized firms. Our research suggests that this scenario is not likely without changes to policy or legislation.     

The impact of foreign direct investment on export structure and employment generation

The literature on foreign direct investment often treats its determinants and consequences independently. This is particularly so for empirical studies. The purpose of this paper is to consider both aspects simultaneously and to provide some empirical evidence on the nature of foreign investment and its impact on export structure and employment generation. The method consists of a model which includes both industry-specific and location-specific determinants of foreign direct investment in the export sector and their effects on the employment generating capacity of individual manufacturing industries. It is estimated for three-digit S.I.C. industries in Puerto Rico in 1979. The results suggest that Puerto Rico's export sector consists of US based firms producing on a large scale. These firms are primarily attracted to the island by relatively higher profits than on the mainland. Low wage labor is not considered an important inducement to foreign investment in Puerto Rico. The labor intensity of the island's export sector lags behind that of comparable countries due to the capital-intensive nature of its principal exports. The island's manufacturing employment can be more effectively increased by altering the composition of exports than by inducing present firms to hire more workers.     

Import competition from and offshoring to low-income countries: Implications for employment and wages at U.S. domestic manufacturers

Using confidential linked firm-level trade transactions and census data between 1997 and 2012, we provide new evidence on how American firms without foreign affiliates adjust employment and wages as they adapt to import competition from low-income countries. We provide stylized facts on the input sourcing strategies of these domestic firms, contrasting them with multinationals operating in the same industry. We then investigate how changes in firm input purchases from low-income countries as well as domestic market import penetration from these sources are correlated with changes in employment and wages at surviving domestic firms. Greater offshoring by domestic firms from low-income countries correlates with larger declines in manufacturing employment and in the average production workers’ wage. Given the negative association, however, the estimated magnitudes are small, even for a narrow measure of offshoring that includes only intermediate goods. Import penetration of U.S. markets from these sources is associated with relatively larger changes in employment for arm’s length importing firms, but has no significant correlation with employment changes at firms that do not trade. Given differences in the degree of both offshoring and import penetration, we find substantial variation across industries in the magnitude of changes associated with low-income country imports.     

Monetary Policy,the Composition of GDP and Crisis Duration in Europe

This paper analyzes the effects of changes in interest rates on the composition of production in 10 European countries during the boom period of the 2000s. We find that output elasticity differs across industries and across countries for similar industries. The paper suggests that in the run-up to the 2008 crisis, the European Central Bank's low interest rate policy affected the allocation of resources across industries. This may explain the sluggish overall recovery from the crisis in Europe.     

Corporate growth convergence in Europe*

It is widely believed that the implementation of the SingleMarket Programme in 1992 has induced a transformation in industrialstructures across Europe. Some people believe that it has drivenEurope towards a common industrial structure. However, usinga newly available database covering nearly every firm above100 employees in 14 European countries over the time period1994 to 1998, the hypothesis of convergence in corporate sizeswithin industries is unambiguously rejected by the data. A Gibratprocess best describes the growth of very large and mature firms,but smaller and younger firms depart from this prediction. Pre-post1992 comparisons using another database for larger listed firmsreveal that the speed of convergence actually decreased post-1992.     

Does gender structure affect firm productivity? Evidence from China

This study examines the impact of gender workforce composition on firm productivity. Using a large sample of Chinese manufacturing firms and conditional on human capital-related controls, we find that firms with a greater share of female workers demonstrate lower productivity. However, our results suggest that increasing the fraction of highly educated female workers significantly improves firm performance. This effect is evident for all private firms regardless of their trade orientation and foreign firms undertaking purely domestic sales. However, the effect does not exist in the case of state-owned and export-oriented foreign enterprises. Compared with medium-sized and large firms, small firms benefit more from gender diversity at high education level. Finally, the share of highly talented female workers indicates better firm performance in more feminized industries.     

中国制造业地理集聚的成因与趋势

改革开放以来,中国的制造业空间格局发生了显著的重构。本文基于中国省区尺度的制造业数据,描述了改革开放以来到2008年期间的中国制造业的空间集聚的变化趋势和特征。总体上,现阶段中国的制造业地理集聚程度较高,主要集聚在东部沿海地区。然而中国制造业地理集聚存在显著的产业差异,依赖于特定自然资源投入的产业,地理集聚程度相对较低,而依赖大量中间产品投入的资本技术密集型产业的地理集聚度则较高。劳动密集型产业由于是外资主导并且以出口为主,高度集中在沿海省区。中国的产业集聚变化趋势具有明显的阶段性特征,从上个世纪90年代初开始,产业地理集聚程度上升进入了加速期,地理集聚程度在2004年左右达到顶峰。本文回顾了中国产业地理集聚的理论和实证研究,传统的贸易理论、新经济地理学理论和集聚经济理论是理解中国的产业集聚的重要视角,但中国转型经济的特殊制度环境下,市场化、全球化和地方分权对中国制造业业集聚和分散具有显著影响。随着中国经济转型的深化及其在全球经济体中地位的调整,全球力量与地方力量的相互作用将不断重塑中国的制造业地理格局。     

European trade liberalisation and the stillborn Nordic customs union in the 1950s

Abstract

Historical research on the aborted Nordic customs union of the 1950s has emphasised the conflicting commercial interests of the countries involved. This study identifies the common commercial interests that from 1954 committed governments to further progress in the customs union issue. It argues that increased frustration over the ‘hardening’ of the European commercial regime made the governments opt for a customs union to develop Nordic manufacturing industries.     

Multinational firms, market integration, and trade structure: What remains of the standard-goods hypothesis?

Multinational Firms, Market Integration, and Trade Structure: What Remains of the Standard-Goods Hypothesis? — In extending traditional empirical trade models to multinational firms, this paper shows the effect of the transfer of firm-specific technology and intangible assets by these firms on the structure of host countries. For Belgium, a small open economy with a large presence of foreign multinationals, this effect is of crucial importance and previous studies appeared to have produced biased results by neglecting it. The econometric results show how the large multinational presence induced by the European integration has shifted Belgium’s trade structure towards differentiated products, thereby challenging the standard-goods hypothesis which states that small countries tend to specialize in nondifferentiated products. Spain and Ireland have witnessed an increase in foreign direct investment and a shift in trade structure similar to Belgium after joining the EC.     

Outward foreign direct investment and technical efficiency: Evidence from Taiwan's manufacturing firms

This paper uses firm-level panel data from Taiwan's manufacturing industries from 1987 to 2000 to investigate the impact of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on the technical efficiency of the OFDI firms. Propensity score matching is used to construct an appropriate group of non-OFDI firms to compare with OFDI firms, and a metafrontier framework is subsequently used to calculate comparable technical efficiencies for both groups of firms. Our empirical results reveal that the technical efficiencies of Taiwan's manufacturing firms were increasing over the entire sample period. In addition, our results suggest that the technological advances and the technical efficiency of Taiwan's manufacturing firms are positively correlated with their OFDI activity.     

Export spillover from foreign direct investment in China during pre- and post-WTO accession

This study investigates the effects of export spillover from foreign direct investment (FDI) before and after China’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, with particular consideration of the FDI source country and firm ownership structure. It uses a Chinese manufacturing firm-level panel dataset, for the period 1998–2007. In general, there are no spillover effects among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This study finds negative horizontal and positive vertical spillovers associated with FDI from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan (HMT) among non-SOEs. Furthermore, non-HMT FDI, which is predominantly from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, have statistically significant positive horizontal and vertical spillover effects on the export performance of private Chinese firms. Positive forward spillovers occurred only after China joined the WTO, while positive backward spillovers existed during both the pre- and post-WTO periods. China’s entry into the WTO intensified the forward linkage of production, implying that greater availability of high-quality inputs produced by non-HMT foreign multinationals benefited the export performance of private domestic firms.     

Measuring Multinationals' R&D Activities in China on the Basis of a Patent Database: Comparing European,Japanese and US Firms

Using an internationally linked patent database, this paper compares the types of R&D activities undertaken by multinationals in China by home country and industry. In China, multinationals recently began investing in R&D, mainly in the areas of product and manufacturing process development. However, US firms, which are the most actively invested in R&D, are involved in some technology‐driven R&D activities; European firms are inclined toward market‐driven R&D, while Japanese firms, which lag behind the other two, focus on production‐driven R&D. This pattern may be related to the relative competitiveness of each country: Japanese firms are strong in electronics and automobiles, where production process improvement is important, while US firms flourish in science‐based industries, such as pharmaceuticals and software, where interacting with the local science base is a critical factor.     

Productivity Growth in Different Plant‐size Groups in the Malaysian Manufacturing Sector*

In the present study, we develop a stochastic frontier production model that allows for different groups of firms to have different patterns of technical efficiency over time. We apply our model to the Malaysian manufacturing sector to decompose total factor productivity growth into technical efficiency change and technical progress for different plant size groups (e.g. large and small) in seven industries during 2000–2004. Our empirical results indicate that technical efficiency has worsened across all industries and plant‐size groups. In contrast, we find evidence of substantial technical progress in all industries. In fact, technical progress has been larger than technical efficiency deterioration in most industries and plant‐size groups, leading to total factor productivity growth. Our analysis identifies the industries and plant‐size groups that lag the most in terms of productivity, and thus have the greatest scope for policies that facilitate productivity growth.     

Manufacturing productivity in China and India: The role of institutional changes

In this paper we undertake a comparative study of productivity in the manufacturing sector for China and India using data from survey of manufacturing industries for the two countries. We find that productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India improved substantially over the 1998–2003 period. Specifically, the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the manufacturing sector over this period was about 11% higher in China than in India. We document two substantial changes in government policies in China that were not witnessed in India. First, the late 1990s saw an enormous wave of ownership restructuring due to the formal endorsement of private property rights by the Chinese central government. Second, in 1997 a large scale labour retrenchment program was launched to address the long standing problem of labour redundancy in the public sector. Using data from the Chinese survey of manufacturing industries, we quantify the impact of these large scale institutional changes on TFP of Chinese manufacturing industries. We find that these policy changes can explain about 30% of the growth in TFP of manufacturing industries. Hence we conclude that these institutional changes in China can account for a significant part of the gains in productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India over the 1998–2003 period.     

Global value chains and servicification of manufacturing: Evidence from firm-level data

Recent literature on global value chains (GVCs) has mainly focused on manufacturing firms’ global sourcing and investment strategies. Our question here is that, if the manufacturing firms established foreign manufacturing plants and engaged in sourcing inputs and exporting outputs, have they changed their domestic employment composition toward service workers? This is what we call servicification of manufacturing firms in this paper. To answer this question, using Korean firm-establishments matched data, we examine changes in the shares of service employment in manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2013, when those firms are participating in both import-and-export and foreign direct investment (i.e., GVC firms). We find that the two-way trading firms that own manufacturing plants in foreign countries—and particularly in nearby foreign countries—have changed their domestic employment structures to increase the number of service workers they employ. Moreover, the relatively greater increase in the share of R&D workers than of wholesale-and-retail workers serves as further evidence of the servicification of domestic manufacturing. Overall, our findings suggest that Korean firms who engage in GVCs through both trade and foreign direct investment have reorganized domestic labor structure to be able to provide high value-added headquarter services for their manufacturing plants that are closely located in foreign countries.     

Firm size and export performance

Economic analysis based on the Theory of the Firm shows that the exporting firm can be conceptualized as a discriminating monopolist, facing several demand curves. The analysis shows that under these conditions, and assuming certainty, the larger the firm, the higher the ratio of exports to total sales.When uncertainty is introduced into the model, the conclusion regarding the relationship between size and the ratio of exports to sales is reinforced. Large firms can afford to assume more risks than small ones; in addition, their risks from foreign operations are less than those of small firms because the large firms benefit from economies of scale in foreign marketing. Consequently, the risk premium demanded by large firms from foreign marketing is less than the premium insisted upon by small firms. Large firms therefore tend to export a higher share of their output. These theoretical constructs are confirmed by empirical analysis performed on a sample of several hundred firms from six industries in Denmark, Holland and Israel. The figures confirm, with few exceptions, that the size of firms is indeed positively correlated with the ratio of exports to sales.The normative conclusion which can be drawn from the above is that economic policy-makers who wish to increase the export potential of industrial firms, should adopt policies which will encourage large firms to come into being through mergers, take-overs or simply fast growth.     

Trade and the Wage Structure in the Presence of Price Differentials in the Product Market: The Japanese Labor Market 1965–1990

The decomposition of demand into domestic, export, and import components in a cross-industry study of 18 two-digit manufacturing industries suggests that export growth has less of an impact on interindustry wage differentials than the equivalent growth in domestic demand. The difference seems to be greatest in the case of full-time workers in large firms. This result for Japan is different from those of similar studies for the United States and is consistent with a model of industry rent-sharing with domestic–international price differentials in the product market.J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 1999,13(1), pp. 22–43. Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies, Oxford University, 27 Winchester Rd., Oxford OX2 6NA, EnglandCopyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: F14, J31.