FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND CROSS-BORDER VALUATION

Should a corporate financial manager analyze a cross-border investment proposal from the perspective of the foreign currency or the home currency? The conventional wisdom among economists is that it doesn't matter–the valuation of an asset should be the same in one currency as in another, given the spot FX rate. This assertion implies that it is irrelevant whether we analyze an overseas investment's NPV in the home currency or the foreign currency, as long as we use consistent cross-border conversions.
But what happens if managers' foreign exchange forecasts differ from the efficient markets forecast that is implicit in interest rates? In that case, as this article demonstrates through a series of examples, managers' FX forecasts can affect their investment, hedging, and financing decisions.     

DO FOREIGN INVESTORS PRICE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK DIFFERENTLY?

We test whether foreign investors price foreign exchange risk differently from local investors. Drawing from the closed‐end country fund literature, we argue that both differential access to information by foreign versus local investors and different sources of exchange risk that investors face (economic or translation exposure) will lead to different pricing of the exchange risk associated with American Depositary Receipt (ADR) investments. We apply a two‐step method to country portfolios of ADRs of Australia, France, Japan, and the United Kingdom traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Our results show that foreign investors generally price exchange risk differently from local investors, and that the source and magnitude of differences in exchange risk pricing vary significantly across countries. Although significant differences in pricing exchange risk between foreign and local investors are observed for Australia, France, and Japan, no such pricing difference is noticed for the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the pricing differences observed for Australian and French ADRs are mainly attributed to the exchange risk of underlying share returns (economic exposure), whereas the pricing differences for Japanese ADRs are mainly attributed to the exchange risk associated with currency translation (translation exposure). We offer some explanations for our findings.     

THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATING EXPOSURE OF AUSTRALIAN STOCKS

This paper provides empirical evidence on the stock return sensitivity of a sample of Australian companies, to changes in the trade weighted index value of the Australian dollar during the post float period January, 1984 - December, 1989. Exposure is estimated using time series regression methods. While the evidence of exposure is generally weak, there is evidence that resource stocks and industrial stocks respond differentially to fluctuations in the Australian dollar.     

STRATEGIC RULES ON SPECULATION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

In this article we specify the conditions for profitable speculaion in the foreign exchange market with spot and forward contracts. We derive the unique strategic rules from the initial two‐choice situations in a given environment. Finally, in a more complex structure involving covered arbitrage, speculative profits are computed with iterative plays. JEL classification: F310