The causes and consequences of world recession

Diverging trends in productivity since the late 1960s, if not before, between the United States and its competitor countries, lie at the heart of the global slump. Over the 1970s, these trends began to be reflected in large deficits in commodity trade - but the tendency was to resolve them by means other than increased investment: at first devaluation, later restrictive monetary policies and rising unemployment. None of these policies helped significantly to achieve the needed structural adjustments but they did serve to aggravate the position and prospects of the poorer developing countries. By the 1980s, this became a crisis situation of serious proportions. Often drought and war or civil strife have reinforced economic difficulties, compounded further in many countries by rising debt service obligations and declining real commodity prices.This combination of external and internal difficulties certainly contributed in the poorer countries to the slowdown, since the 1960s, in reducing infant mortality and in tackling basic child survival and development issues. The impressive progress in reducing IMR by an average of 2% or more a year by a number of developing countries, however, shows what can be done. Although rising expenditure is by no means a sufficient condition for child progress, declining expenditures and severe balance-of-payments problems greatly constrain programmes for expanding child services.     

The recent worldwide economic crisis and the welfare of children: The case of Cuba

As a consequence of the deeply interdependent nature of today's world, Cuba has been affected by the world recession and by the critical roles of international trade and finance. However, the Cuban government has maintained a constant commitment to the protection of the poor and the children through increasing allocations of resources to education and health and through the promotion of increased levels of popular participation. This paper describes the improvements in the areas of nutrition, health and education and the persistent problems in the area of housing. It shows that the improvements observed have reached the majority of the population, eliminating great disparities.     

Budgetary policy during the world economic recession: Public debt

The public debt problems of the largest economies of the world are considered. A particular consideration is given to the United States, i.e., a country, which not only affects the stability of the global financial system, but also the world economy.     

The world economic crisis and the children: A United States case study

This is a review of the United States experience with issues of child health and services, as they relate to changes in economic trends. No existing data systems are entirely adequate for reporting on the current health status of children, an important consideration for the monitoring of children's health in the United States is the focus on subgroups such as those who are disadvantaged for reasons of poverty, discrimination or geographic isolation. Ample evidence exists that children living in poverty suffer adverse health consequences and that the proportion of children living in poverty in the United States has increased steadily since 1975 and dramatically since 1981. Most measures of health status and health risks for children show steady improvements througout the 1970s. The exercise of public responsibility for financing and providing essential services and supports held constant or improved during this recession period, especially during the recession of 1974–1975. The health status and risks for children since 1981 appear to be adversely affected which must be attributed to a combination of circumstances that include serious recession, increased poverty rates for households with children and diminished health benefits and social support services. These findings suggest that when either local or widespread economic reversals are anticipated, health services and social supports for children need to be expanded rather than contracted.     

Sub-Saharan Africa in depression: The impact on the welfare of children

This paper analyses the impact of the economic crisis on the welfare of children in Sub-Saharan Africa, an area which includes most of the least developed and most severely affected countries. These countries are characterized by: low levels of skilled personpower, dependency on their primary product exports, small industrial sectors, a lagging food production growth, a high proportion of rural population and a child dependency ratio that is virtually 1 to 1. The situations of Nigeria, Zambia and Tanzania are examined in detail. In Zambia where there is substantial evidence of worsening of the condition of children in the 1970s, the most urgent requirement is additional resources, particularly foreign exchange. Such is also the case with Tanzania, while Nigeria does have the resources to develop a more coherent economy and finance basic services adequately.     

The effect of duty drawback on export promotion: The case of Korea

This paper examines whether or not the duty drawback system has contributed to promoting Korea's exports. The unit root tests show that they can be assumed to be integrated of order one. Banerjee et al.'s [Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., & Mestre, R. (May 1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267–283] small sample error correction mechanism (ECM) test shows that there is no evidence of cointegration. The estimation results show that there are strong evidences of the positive effect of export subsidy in terms of duty drawback on export supply. That is, the efficiently managed duty drawback system may contribute to export promotion significantly.     

Intra-industry trade in manufactures: The case of Korea

Intra-Industry Trade in Manufactures: The Case of Korea. - This paper provides an empirical analysis of intra-industry trade (IIT) in Korea's foreign trade. First, we measure the share of IIT in Korea's trade of manufactures from 1977 to 1986. The share of IIT increased from 0.350 in 1977 to 0.502 in 1985, but declined to 0.421 in 1986. Second, we test hypotheses regarding country characteristics of IIT. Using the unadjusted Grubel-Lloyd index with a trade imbalance variable in the regression equations, we show that the extent of IIT is: (1) negatively correlated with differences in per capita incomes and with “economic distances” between Korea and its trading partners, and (2) positively correlated with the trade intensity between Korea and its trading partners and with the existence of a common cultural background.     

Urban tourism in the developing world: The case of Johannesburg

Urban tourism has attracted a growing literature in the context of cities in the developed world. In this article, the role of urban tourism is explored in the developing world setting of Johannesburg. As in the case of the developed world, in Johannesburg the promotion of urban tourism is linked to economic regeneration and urban economic development. Johannesburg's tourism economy exhibits distinct geographical and sectoral clustering, with business tourism being the most vibrant subsector for tourism development. New development initiatives by both provincial and local government are seeking to further enhance the role of tourism in Johannesburg's economic development.     

The effectiveness of export promotion policies: The case of Korea

Zusammenfassung Die Wirksamkeit von Exportf?rderungspolitiken: Der Fall Korea. — Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Wirkungen verschiedener Arten einer Exportf?rderungspolitik auf die gesamte Industriegüterausfuhr Koreas. Er liefert eine mikro?konomische Analyse des Verhaltens monopolistischer Exporteure bei alternativen Subventionsprogrammen. Diese Analyse bildet die Grundlage für ein empirisches Modell des Exportangebots in Korea. Wechselkurserwartungen und der dynamische Proze\ zwischen Exportauftr?gen und Exportlieferungen werden er?rtert. Die Sch?tzung der Exportnachfrage und des Exportangebots liefert Sch?tzungen der langfristigen Wirkungen der Exportf?rderungspolitik. Die Gleichungen deuten darauf hin, da\ Subventionsprogramme wirkungsvoller sind als eine Abwertungspolitik.

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Résumé Efficacité des politiques de promotion d’exportation: Le cas de la Corée. - Dans cet article les auteurs analysent les effets des formes différentes des politiques de promotion d’exportation sur le montant agrégé des exportations manufacturières en Corée. Ils présentent une investigation microéconomique du comportement monopoliste d’exportateur sous des programmes de subvention alternatifs. Cette investigation est la base d’un modèle empirique d’offre d’ exportation de la Corée. Les auteurs discutent les expectatives de taux de change et le processus dynamique entre les commandes d’exportation et la livraison d’exportation. Les estimations de demande et d’offre d’exportation rendent possible l’évaluation des effets à long terme des politiques de promotion d’exportation. Les équations indiquent que les programmes de subvention sont plus efficaces que la politique de dévaluation.

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Resumen La efectividad de la promoción de exportaciones: El caso de Corea. - En este trabajo se investigan los efectos de distintas políticas de promoción de exportaciones sobre las exportaciones agregadas de productos manufacturados de Corea. Se ofrece un análisis microeconómico del comportamiento de un exportador monopolista bajo distintos programas de subsidio. Este análisis sirve de base para derivar un modelo empírico de la oferta de exportaciones para Corea. Se tratan las expectativas con respecta al tipo de cambio y el proceso dinámico entre las órdenes de exportación y los envíos. La estimación de la oferta y la demanda de exportaciones permite estimar los efectos a largo plazo de las políticas de promoción. Las ecuaciones indican que los programas de subsidio son más efectivos que las políticas de devaluatión.

     

International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea

This paper characterizes the precautionary demand for international reserves driven by the attempt to reduce the incidence of costly output decline induced by sudden reversal of short-term capital flows. It validates the main predictions of the precautionary approach by investigating changes in the patterns of international reserves in Korea in the aftermath of the 1997–1998 crisis. This crisis provides an interesting case study, especially because of the rapid rise in Korea's financial integration in the aftermath of the East Asian crisis, where foreigners' shareholding has increased to 40% of total Korean market capitalization. We show that the crisis led to structural change in the hoarding of international reserves, and that the Korean monetary authority gives much greater attention to a broader notion of ‘hot money,’ inclusive of short-term debt and foreigners' shareholding. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (1) (2007) 1–15.     

Inflation in a newly industrialized country: The case of Korea

This paper investigates the nature and causes of inflation in Korea, a newly industrialized country. The basic framework is the two-way causation between prices and wages. The estimated results show that the postulated hypotheses are upheld and that there are multiple causes of inflation. In particular, capital and material costs, which may be considered as external factor costs in Korea, play a significant role, implying that the impact of external inflation on internal inflation in a rapidly developing country is substantial.     

Women's labor force participation and marriage: The case of Korea

In this paper, we examine the relationship between marital status and female labor force participation in Korea, and argue that marriage remains a major obstacle to young Korean women's employment. We find that an average married woman is much less likely (by 40–60%) to participate in the labor force than a single woman in urban Korea. Further investigation into the participation patterns among married women reveals that labor force participation rate (LFPR) varies with husband's occupation and her own age. Lower LFPR among the young married women is explained by demand-side factors, while relatively higher LFPR among the middle-aged married women is mostly explained by the supply-side factors.     

The impact of affinity on world economic integration: The case of Japanese foreign direct investment

This paper finds that a country's affinity with a foreign country has a positive effect on foreign direct investment flows from it to that country, by analyzing Japanese foreign direct investment outflows during the period of 1995–2009. A rise in a country's affinity with a foreign country is thought to enhance its trust in that country and as a result lower the transaction costs of its economic activities with it, thereby helping to promote its foreign direct investment flows to the country. These findings imply that a rise in affinity among countries is likely to facilitate international economic integration.     

The plantation sector in Sri Lanka: Recent changes in the welfare of children and women

Although Sri Lanka has achieved high standards of mass well-being, physical quality of life indicators for the historically deprived plantation population fall well below the impressive national averages. This paper analyses the position of women and children on the plantations within the context of the global recession and national economic strategies. It highlights some of the programmes which, along with a legacy of concern for social welfare in Sri Lanka, have attempted to maintain and even improve the living conditions of plantation women and children.     

A search for leading sectors over the business cycle: The case of Korea

This paper studies the sectoral mechanism of shock propagation in business cycles by performing a case study. After we transform business survey indices of different industries into comparable metrics, we trace and compare them before and after reference dates. From these observations, we show that manufacturing industry leads the peak and the trough of the most recent business cycle in Korea; and six sectors are major players in manufacturing industry, i.e. ‘food products and beverages,’ ‘chemicals,’ ‘machinery,’ ‘motor vehicles, etc.,’ and ‘basic metals,’ and ‘fabricated metals.’ In conclusion, the heavy and chemical sectors may be the key to understanding recent business cycles in Korea.     

Credit allocation and investment decisions: The case of the manufacturing sector in Korea

This study examines the effectiveness of selective credit controls in Korea. The methodology used takes into account both direct credit availability and counterbalancing interest rate changes. The paper concludes that selective credit controls did indeed facilitate, albeit slightly, the investment activity of small and medium-sized enterprises. Repercussions on working capital and inventories were found to be minor, and side effects on large enterprises insignificant. The paper does not make judgments regarding alternatives to the use of selective credit controls. For a country contemplating the introduction of selective credit controls, such an evaluation would have been important.     

International trade and within-sector wage inequality: The case of South Korea

This paper studies which factors contributed to the changes in wage inequality in Korean manufacturing over the last three decades. By adopting Akerman et al. (2013)’s decomposition method, we examine the relative importance of within-sector and between-sector wage variations in Korean manufacturing over the period of 1980–2012. Our analytic results confirm that within-sector wage variation explains the lion’s share of overall wage inequality. Taking this finding into account, we estimate the impacts of international trade, skilled-biased technological change and labor market conditions on within-sector wage inequality in Korea. Our estimation results suggest that there was a structural change in determinants of wage inequality before and after the mid-1990s. The influence of international trade mainly through heightened import competition on wage dispersion became relatively more conspicuous over the last two decades.