外部需求冲击与中国的出口波动——基于随机动态局部均衡模型的分析

本文通过建立简单的代表性出口企业动态随机局部均衡模型来模拟中国2006～2010年的月度出口周期。研究发现,在引入外部需求冲击后,模型可以较好地解释中国的出口波动,成功地模拟出我国2006～2010年期间出口的周期变化,特别是2008年美国次贷危机引发的全球经济衰退对我国出口造成的巨大影响。由此可见,外部需求冲击成为我国出口的重要制约因素,因此,为了促进国民经济健康、可持续发展,我们应该增加内需,提高国内消费。     

Product Cycles, Innovation, and Exports: A Study of Indian Pharmaceuticals

This paper studies the product cycle and neo-technology theories of trade in the context of generic pharmaceuticals. It analyzes the export performance of 131 Indian pharmaceutical firms for the period 1989–2004. The results indicate that technology proxied by foreign patent rights has a positive impact on exports. This suggests that developing countries with innovation skills for process innovations are capable of penetrating international markets in the later stages of the product cycle by using patents, which were the barriers to trade in the early stages of the product cycle.     

The role of technological learning in the exports of manufactured goods: the case of selected capital goods in Brazil

The object of this study is to explain the evolution of Brazilian capital-goods exports in terms of technological learning within the sector and government policy, but emphasizing the former. The study identifies relevant learning processes for eventual introduction into export-behaviour equations or as a basis for theoretical models. It starts from a series of eight microeconomic case studies of technologically sophisticated firms in Brazil. Among the specific issues addressed in the case studies are: (1) the nature of technological learning: are there recognizable sequences? Does it generally lead to products of increased technological complexity? (2) how (if at all) technological learning has benefited exports; (3) other endogenous firm spin-offs, principally from reputation effects, which were important for increased efficiency and for the emergence of exports; (4) the economic value of the firm's accumulated experience, and the factors determining it.     

The “hidden” side of the “flying-geese” catch-up model: Japan’s dirigiste institutional setup and a deepening financial morass

Akamatsu’s original “flying geese” (FG) growth model is often used as a frame of reference for both further conceptual elaborations and empirical explorations. So far, only the positive results of FG development have been focused on and emphasized in connection with Asia’s phenomenal growth in the precrisis period. The Japanese economy, supposedly Asia’s lead goose, is in the eleventh consecutive year of stagnation. How has such a once successful lead goose come to be stricken by financial woes? This paper points out that Japan’s once miraculous FG growth was made possible because it established an effective dirigiste catch-up regime in the early postwar period but that Japan’s present financial predicament is paradoxically a path-dependent outcome of this FG strategy. The institutional, especially financial, dimension of FG strategy needs to be taken into account to explain why such a strategy once proved effective but later culminated in a deepening financial morass. The FG model should encompass not only the industrial dimension of catch-up but also its institutional, particularly financial, dimension.     

Demand patterns and Canada’s trade in services

Canada’s trade in commercial services appears inconsistent with what manufacturing-oriented Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts. Canada’s services trade is overwhelmingly intra-industry, involving countries whose factor proportions and demand patterns are similar—findings consistent with the ‘new’ trade theory, and the Linder hypothesis: that there is a uni-directional causal relationship flowing from the similarity (convergence) in demand patterns amongst trading partners, to Canada’s exports to those partners. Support for this conjecture is found for the US, the UK, and Japan. We infer that liberalization of trade in commercial services is likely welfare enhancing, with gains greater within trade arrangements and entities such as the NAFTA, the EU, and the OECD.     

Pakistan and the socialist countries: Trade and aid

The economic relations between Pakistan and the socialist countries are examined against their political background. The sharp deterioration in Pakistan's political relations with the socialist countries in the 1950s was accompanied by a contraction in trade, which had almost been a one-way flow until the early 1960s, consisting of Pakistan's exports. The political rapprochement with the socialist countries following the 1962 Sino-Indian clash coincided with a tremendous spurt in trade, largely under the aegis of barter trade agreements. Trade turnover increased fivefold in the sixties and Pakistan became a recipient of socialist aid. An examination of the structure of trade reveals that Pakistan's exports to the socialist countries diversified considerably less than total exports, but that the terms of trade were more favourable. The quantity, kinds, and sources of socialist aid are also examined.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

Trade and growth: The Nigerian experience

This paper analyses the impact of trade on Nigeria's economic growth. Using a two-gap model, it estimates the relationships between exports, foreign capital and economic growth. The paper also provides an assessment of the relative influence of Nigeria's two main types of export (agricultural produce and petroleum) on economic growth. The results of the analysis provide empirical support for the hypothesis that trade has been an important engine of growth in Nigeria. The paper recommends, as part of Nigeria's strategy for achieving rapid economic development, the vigorous pursuit of an export promotion policy.     

India's trade with the socialist countries

India's trade with the socialist countries increased most rapidly after 1960. This rapid growth occured in a framework of bilateral trade agreements, the distinct feature of which was that payments for all transactions were made in rupees. The USSR was by far the most important trading partner. Bilateral rupee trade provided India with imports that were essential for its development programme and was also responsible for a little more than 40 per cent of the growth in India's total exports between 1960/1 and 1972/3. In view of the fact that a large proportion of it constituted a net increase in exports and was probably at better terms of trade, there is no doubt that India derived substantial benefits from its trade with the socialist countries.     

Can a rapidly growing export-oriented economy exit smoothly from a currency peg? Lessons from Japan’s high-growth era

We analyze the impact of Japan’s exit from its currency peg in 1971. We identify sizeable effects on Japanese exports and investment but find that the negative impacts on the economy were neutralized by strong global demand and domestic fiscal support. While our analysis suggests that a rapidly-growing, export-oriented economy can exit a peg for a managed float despite the presence of capital controls and the absence of sophisticated foreign currency forward markets, it underscores the importance of exiting while global conditions are favorable and points to the importance of using fiscal policy to support domestic demand as the rise in the real exchange rate slows the growth of net exports and investment.     

EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper uses cumulative export experience functions to explore the structural dynamics of South Africa's exports for the period 1990–2003. It finds a large spread of emerging non‐traditional accelerating export products across industry clusters of different factor intensities, steadily increasing their proportion in total exports and her main markets. Shift‐share and correlation analyses show that increased intra‐industry specialisation and trade within import competing product groups explain the structural change in the direction of export diversity. With respect to quality, as measured by relative unit prices of exports and imports in intra‐industry trade with the EU and the US, a relative improvement of export quality is found.     

The impact of destination tariffs on China’s exports: Country,firm, and product perspectives

Based on multi-product heterogeneous firm trade theory, we combine China's customs data with the World Integrated Trade Solution’s (WITS) tariff data from 2002 to 2013 and analyze the impact of destination tariffs on China's exports at the country, firm, and product levels. The results reveal that tariffs had a negative effect on country-level exports and their extensive margins. After controlling for the inter-firm composition effect, tariffs had negative effects on firm-level exports and their intensive margins, but positive effects on their extensive margins. After also controlling for the within-firm export composition effect, tariffs had a negative impact on the exports of core products; however, the negative impact diminished as the core grade and technological content of the products increased. Using these elasticities to analyze Sino-U.S. trade frictions, we determine that the additional U.S. tariffs reduced China's exports of high-tech products more than its medium- and low-tech products.     

The republic of Korea's experience with export-led industrial development

This paper is a summary of findings from the author's research conducted intermittently over the past seven years and reported elsewhere in greater detail for more specialized audiences. It begins with a brief history of the Republic of Korea's industrial incentive policies, followed by an examination of historical trends in the real effective exchange rates for exports and imports. Estimates of nominal and effective incentive rates for 1968 are summarized, and the changes that have taken place in the structure of the Republic of Korea's trade and production are quantified and related to its industrial incentive policies. The conclusion of the paper is that the Republic of Korea's outward-looking development strategy and the policy measures adopted to implement it have resulted in a generally efficient and equitable process of rapid industrialization.     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country’s role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions.     

Processing trade,exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances

This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in China's bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan's appreciation on China's processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering bilateral processing trade between China and its partners from 1993 to 2008. The empirical results show that: (1) processing trade accounted for 100% of China's annual trade surplus during the period; (2) China's processing trade showed a significant regional bias—77% of processing imports originated from East Asia while only 29% of processing exports was destined to the region in 2008; and (3) a real appreciation of the yuan would negatively affect both processing imports and exports—specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only China's processing exports by 9.1% but also its processing imports by 5.0%. Based on these empirical findings we conclude that the combined effect of the yuan's appreciation on the balance of processing trade and thus China's overall trade balance will be limited.     

中国工业部门垂直专业化与国内技术含量的关系研究

本文在借鉴国内外关于垂直专业化研究文献的基础上,计算了中国19个工业部门在1992～2003年期间的国内销售产品和出口贸易的垂直专业化程度。结果发现各行业的两个垂直专业化的平均比率都在1～10%之间,且数值比较接近,绝大多数行业的垂直专业化程度随着时间的推移而逐步提高。此外,本文还计算了分行业的产品国内技术含量,并通过计量检验考察了它与垂直专业化程度之间的关系,结果表明,在其他条件不变的前提下,工业行业的产品国内技术含量越低,其垂直专业化程度越高。     

The emergence of Third World multinationals: Indian joint ventures overseas

The more industrialized LDCs are emerging increasingly as exporters of capital (or of technology in several forms). This paper draws on the recent experience of Indian MNCs to reexamine the factors which give rise to Third World multinationals. The author summarizes the current state of research in the analysis of LDCs MNCs, drawing upon specific MNC literature and other related literature on trade and technology. He deals with the evidence on Indian capital exports, placing it in the broader context of technology exports, discussing some examples of interest and drawing comparisons with foreign investment by some other LDCs. He assesses the Indian experience, using the distinctions drawn by Dunning's ‘eclectic’ theory but concentrating on the processes of technical change that underline the growth of its MNCs. The final section draws some tentative conclusions.     

Towards a sustainable growth path

For Japan’s economy, there were two tasks I embraced myself for: “how to return to a sustainable growth path” and “how to rebuild the financial system.” And for the Bank of Japan, there was also the important challenge of navigating our way on a new voyage in line with the principles of the new Bank of Japan Law, which came into effect at almost the same time as I became Governor.     

Housing Boom,Dutch Disease,and the Decline in China's Manufacturing Exports

Drawing on Dutch disease theory, we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China's manufacturing exports. Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013, our analysis reveals that Dutch disease indeed exists and that the housing price increase has played a very important role in affecting China's manufacturing exports through two key channels: resource movement effect and spending effect. Specifically, this paper found that: (i) the housing price increase hindered labor flowing into China's manufacturing industry (resource movement effect) and caused higher inflation (spending effect); (ii) the housing boom clearly impeded China's manufacturing exports, especially after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008; (iii) the impacts of the housing price increase on China's manufacturing exports were heterogenous, and were more significant for labor-intensive manufacturing businesses, businesses that were foreign owned, less R&D intensive, or located in the central and western regions.     

Digital product imports and export product quality: Firm-level evidence from China

Based on the Statistical Classification of the Digital Economy and Its Core Industries (2021) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the information and communications technology products released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development to construct a digital product catalog manually, this paper analyzes the impact of digital product imports on Chinese firms' export product quality using a combined data set of the Annual Survey of Industrial Production and China Custom Records from 2000 to 2013. The results show that digital product imports have a significant positive effect on a firm's export product quality. To address potential endogeneity, this paper uses a series of instrumental variables (IVs) and constructs a multi-timing difference-in-differences model using the firm's first digital product import as exogenous shock, and finds strong supporting evidence. Digital product imports improve the quality of export products through three mechanisms: technology spillovers, productivity, and information-searching capabilities. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that digital product imports have greater impacts on foreign-owned and capital-intensive firms, and digital intermediate imports play a bigger role than do digital non-intermediate imports. The results of this paper have important implications for developing countries that wish to improve the quality of exports through digital trade.