Wicksell on the Classical Theories of Money, Credit, Interest and the Price Level:

ABSTRACT Knut Wicksell occupies a significant place in the history of monetary economics as the developer of the cumulative process by which deviations between the market and natural rates of interest cause the price level to change persistently. A more accurate version of the same argument is a part of classical monetary analysis but there the process originates from a change in base money or central bank credit while Wicksell's version may be initiated by banks capriciously setting their lending rates. Wicksell's version arises from his difficulties in correctly interpreting the classical quantity theory of money and interest rate determination from Hume down to Marshall, but has not been so noted in the literature.     

On the Analytics of Wicksell: A Comment on Abiakpor

Three essential concepts of Wicksell's contributions are probed. (1) Wicksell's commingling of a barter economy with a money economy led to a logical pitfall in his cumulative-process paradigm. (2) Wicksell sought to deduce a cumulative process involving price-level movements from an economy without money and, therefore, without a general price level. (3) Wicksell's idealized pure credit system can be logically reconciled with his law of the demand for money creating its own supply.     

Economists Can Agree on Money and Inflation

The recent appearance of a series of books reveals a growing tendency towards agreement among economists on the analysis of money and inflation. Patrick Minford, Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Liverpool, examines the new literature.     

Wicksell vs the Classics on the Mechanics of the Quantity Theory: A Comment on Abiakpor

ABSTRACT Did Wicksell misinterpret the classics ideas on monetary theory as Ahiakpor would have us believe or did he merely refine and add some original analysis based on this theory of the cumulative process? Regarding Marshall's ideas on money as the distillation of classical monetary theory: did Wicksell accuse Marshall (and therefore the classics) wrongly of assuming velocity constant during short period business fluctuations? Did Marshall neglect changes in velocity, focusing instead on movements in real income?     

Comment on Robert Hall's "Controlling the Price Level"

A bstract .   James Tobin discusses Fisher's compensated dollar plan and Robert Hall's proposal for controlling the price level.     

转型经济利率市场化与我国货币市场发展

由于经济转型独特的初始条件,利率市场化不单单表现为放松利率管制,期间还交叉了一个利率定价传导机制重构的过程。利率定价传导机制取决于一国的金融制度与结构,尤其与货币市场的发育密切相关。目前,由于利率定价传导机制尚未完全成型,相应的利率市场化进程应以完善利率定价传导机制为重点,并最终完成以放松利率管制为主要特征的利率市场化改革。     

Money as a Potential Anchor for the Price Level: a Critique of the P* Approach

A number of recent articles have attempted to restore the use of a simple measure of the money supply as an indicator of future price levels and to re-establish a causal link from money to prices. Most notably Hallman, Porter and Small (HPS) (1989a), (1989b) originated the approach using US data and Hannah and James(1989) have applied it to the UK The approach broadens the traditional idea of a constant velocity of money by introducing the notion of V* and Q*, the long-run value of velocity and income. These are then used to define P from the traditional quantity theory of money as the long-run equilibrium price level. The analysis then proceeds to estimate a standard Error Correction Model (ECM) for price determination with the levels effect given by (P-P*)t-1. The conclusion drawn is that 'a measure of money that determines the long-run future level of prices is useful in determining the proper monetary policy for attaining price stability. We have shown, through the construction of P*, that M2 can serve as this determinant for the price level' (Hallman, Porter and Small (1982a) p. 23).
We argue in this paper that the P* approach is flawed. It is certainly more complex than traditional monetarist approaches but the fundamental questions of causality are in no way either affected or resolved. The P* analysis is a variant on more conventional cointegration analysis (Engle and Granger (1987), Johansen (1988), Hall (1989)) and we argue that the Johansen framework allows us to address the question in a formal and more complete way. When this approach is applied to the US data used by HPS, we find that while the P* relationship does indeed represent a cointegrating one, it does not have a causal link with prices but rather the causality runs from prices to money - this result conforms well to the work of Hendry and Ericsson (1990) or Hall, Henry and Wilcox (1990), which use this form of relationship to model the demand for money.     

The Resale Price Maintenance Struggle: A Comment

A bstract . The analysis of Professor A. J. Greco on recent legislative proposals to make resale price maintenance more difficult for manufacturers to practice is updated legislatively and judicially. Because of subsequent research findings, it is argued that this and other legislation aimed at outlawing resale price maintenance is not economically justified. Rather, a more efficient approach is to extend the current rule of reason standard applied to vertical nonprice restraints to resale price maintenance and other vertical price restraints.     

信用扩张结构、LPR改革与利率市场化:一个理论分析框架

利率市场化是建设社会主义市场经济体制的内在要求.构建一个信用扩张结构与利率传导机制一致性的理论框架进行分析,发现利率双轨制与银行贷款为主、直接融资为辅的信用扩张结构相适应,完全的利率市场化传导与直接融资为主、银行信贷为辅的信用扩张结构相适应.现阶段的LPR改革存在一定局限性,可以看作是利率市场进程中的一个"过渡",LP...     

对《就业、利息和货币通论》的几点思考

阅读《就业、利息和货币通论》是一个困难的过程,但是也有所获益。以下就《通论》的一些内容作思考,并结合中国实际,来探讨《通论》中是否有可供我国借鉴的一些方面。     

Keeping Land in Capital Theory: Ricardo, Faustmann, Wicksell, and George

A bstract .   Most economists today live in a two-factor world: There is just labor and capital. Land, so central to classical political economy, has been swallowed into capital and "disappeared." This paper surveys some of the better historical treatments of land and capital, their interrelations, and how they support modern Georgists and Greens who want land to reappear.     

中国利率水平与股价指数关系的理论分析和实证研究

本文在现有文献基础上就股价指数与国内外短期利率、长期利率之间的关系进行理论分析,对中国的股价指数与国内短期利率、长期利率之间的关系进行经济计量检验并对检验结果进行分析。     

Real Balances, the Price Level and the Unit of Account

A bstract It is argued that Patinkin's introduction in his 1956 book of the stability analysis of the price level resulted in great measure from his reading of Wicksell's 1898 Interest and Prices. Both Patinkin and Wicksell based their treatments of the stability of the price level on what Patinkin used to call the real balance effect. That effect, however, does not operate under Wicksell's assumption of a competitive pure credit economy, where all transactions are carried out by bookkeeping transfers, and the unit of account is the same unit in which the accounts of banks are kept. In that case, Patinkin showed in the second (1965) edition of his book that the real balance effect–and, by that, the stability of the price level–would still be a feature of the system if profit maximizer banks held reserves, created by the central bank to settle temporary imbalances at the clearinghouse. According to Wicksell, on the other hand, a pure credit economy should consist of a central bank that attracts and remunerates deposits at the same interest rate charged for its loans, plus profit maximizer financial intermediaries that lend money for risky projects. The basic rate of interest set by the central bank decides, accordingly, the price level in such an economy. Wicksell's and Patinkin's approaches differ from the view put forward in the 1980s by the so-called new monetary economics that the key to price level stabilization is the separation of the function of money as the unit of account from its function as the medium of exchange in pure accounting systems of exchange.     

利率期货影响信贷管理的机制研究

随着社会的不断发展,商业银行中实务理论界对其使用利率期货的重点是在债务投资管理风险中,但是随着我国利率市场化发展越来越快,并且我国金融行业方面的创新步伐也越来越迅速,我国商业银行中信贷资产方面也面临着很大的利率风险。所以研究利率期货对信贷管理机制的影响有重要作用,对提高商业银行信贷管理水平也有一定的意义。     

Comment:The Statistical Relationship between the Money Supply and the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement

A controversy has recently broken out as to whether the PSBR influences the money supply in the UK. Clearly if this relationship does not exist much of the basis of the government's macroeconomic strategy falls away since the government is acting on the assumption that by controlling the PSBR it will be able to control money supply growth and hence inflation in the medium term. This argument has been forcibly stated in the recent Green Paper on Monetary Control (Cmnd 7858) and is enshrined in the Medium-term Financial Strategy that was announced in the March Budget.     

国外资信评级的相关研究述评

国外资信评级机构已经存续了近百年,在资本市场上发挥着重要的作用。关于资信评级的研究也已积累了丰富的成果,内容涉及资信评级的作用、决定因素、信息价值以及级别的可比性一致性等。文章回顾并评论了国外有关资信评级的研究成果,并在此基础上提出了我国资信评级的理论研究应关注的问题。     

最小报价单位、价格水平与流动性——基于上海股市的实证研究

最小报价单位是证券市场交易机制设计的重要组成部分。与许多市场不同 ,我国证券市场采取单一的最小报价单位。本文利用上海股市的高频日内数据 ,对中国证券市场中最小报价单位对不同价格水平股票的流动性的影响进行了实证研究 ,研究结果表明适度提高高价股票的最小报价单位可能通过提高报价深度而促进这类股票的流动性。     

Money,random matching and endogenous growth: A quantitative analysis

In this study, we develop a search-and-matching monetary growth model to analyze the effects of inflation on economic growth and social welfare by introducing endogenous economic growth via capital externality into a two-sector search-and-matching model. We find that the channel through which inflation affects economic growth in the search-and-matching model is different from the traditional cash-in-advance model. To facilitate the calibration, we obtain an empirical estimate of the effects of inflation on economic growth using panel regressions. In the simulation analysis, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare effect of inflation in the search-and-matching endogenous growth model and compare it to a search-and-matching exogenous growth model. We find that the welfare effect of inflation is nonlinear in the endogenous growth model whereas it is linear in the exogenous growth model. Furthermore, we find that the welfare cost of inflation under endogenous growth is up to four times as large as the welfare cost of inflation under exogenous growth.     

Irrational Expectations, Unclearing Markets and a Business Cycle That Won't Go Away: The Recent School of New Classical Economists Comes a Cropper on Basic Economic Facts

Abstract . The assumptions and conclusions of New Classical Macroeconomics (NCM) are critically examined. NCM grew out of the alleged failure of the Keynesian school to deal with the problems of stagflation of the 1970s. The two fundamental ideas of the NCM are the rational expectations hypothesis and the theory of instantaneous market clearing. According to the NCM, fiscal and monetary policies will achieve desired results if they are unanticipated. Business cycles are thought to be results of imperfect information on the part of rational agents (people). The NCM has been severely criticized by such prominent economists as Arrow, Tobin and Thurow.