Transportation,freight rates,and economic geography

We investigate the role of competitive transport markets in shaping the location of economic activity and the pattern of trade. In our model, carriers supply transport services for shipping manufactured goods, and freight rates are set to clear transport markets. Each carrier must commit to the maximum capacity for a round-trip and thus faces a logistics problem as there are opportunity costs of returning empty. These costs increase the freight rates charged to firms located in regions that are net exporters of manufactured goods. Since demand for transport services depends on the spatial distribution of economic activity, the concentration of production in one region raises freight rates to serve foreign markets from there, thus working against specialization and the agglomeration of firms. Consequently, a more even spatial distribution of firms and production prevails at equilibrium when freight rates are endogenously determined than when they are assumed to be exogenous as in the literature.     

Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications

Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting firms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data, both for the economy as a whole and at the industry level. Furthermore, the differences between power law coefficients for exporters and non-exporters are larger in sectors that are more open to trade. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior.     

Domestic productivity and variety gains from trade

We show theoretically and confirm empirically that domestic productivity has a significant impact on the demand for foreign varieties under the assumption that domestic and foreign varieties are imperfect substitutes. In particular, the demand for imported varieties is more elastic for countries with comparative advantage. For an average good facing a median trade barrier, doubling the importer–exporter relative export performance decreases the number of imported varieties by 17%. Our findings suggest that the variety gains estimates could be significantly biased if we ignore the substitutability between imported and domestic varieties.     

Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries

We derive a micro-founded measure of bilateral trade integration that is consistent with a broad range of leading gravity models. This measure accounts for cross-industry heterogeneity by incorporating substitution elasticities estimated at the industry level. We then use it to provide a theory-based ranking of trade integration across manufacturing industries in European Union countries. In addition, we explore the determinants of trade integration, finding that substantial Technical Barriers to Trade in certain industries as well as high transportation costs associated with heavy-weight goods are the most notable trade barriers.     

Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations

The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.     

The specific factors continuum model, with implications for globalization and income risk

This paper embeds the specific factors model in the goods continuum approach of Dornbusch et al. (1977, 1980) and applies it to analyze the effect of globalization on income risk. Globalization amplifies sector specific income risk induced by idiosyncratic sectoral technology shocks, but tends to reduce income risk to both mobile and immobile factors induced by aggregate technology shocks that differ by country. Aggregate risk bears most heavily on the poorest specific factors.     

Treasury Bond risk and return, the implications for the hedging of consumption and lessons for asset pricing

All consumption-based models of asset pricing imply that the relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of any asset reflects the effectiveness of holding that asset as a hedge against intertemporal variation in the marginal utility of consumption. For Treasury Bonds of various maturities, we find significant positive relations. Our empirical findings support the conclusion that investors must sell bonds short to hedge shocks to marginal utility, because realized bond returns tend to be high (low) when investors least (most) desire an additional dollar of consumption. Implications for special cases of the general consumption-based model are also discussed.     

Competition for firms in an oligopolistic industry: The impact of economic integration

We set up a model of generalised oligopoly where two countries of different size compete for an exogenous, but variable, number of identical firms. The model combines a desire by national governments to attract internationally mobile firms with the existence of location rents that arise even in a symmetric equilibrium where firms are dispersed. As economic integration proceeds, equilibrium taxes initially decline, but then rise again as trade costs fall even further. A range of trade costs is identified where economic integration raises the welfare of the small country, but lowers welfare in the large country.     

Volatility due to offshoring: Theory and evidence

Existing models of offshoring are not equipped to explain how global production sharing affects the volatility of economic activity. This paper develops a trade model that can account for why offshoring industries in low wage countries such as Mexico experience fluctuations in employment that are twice as large as in high wage countries such as the United States. We argue that a key to explaining this outcome is that the extensive margin of offshoring responds endogenously to shocks in demand and transmits those shocks across borders in an amplified manner. Empirical evidence supports the claim that the extensive margin of offshoring is an active margin of adjustment, and quantitative simulation experiments show that the degree of movement of this margin in the data is sufficient to explain relative employment volatility in Mexico and the U.S.     

Foreign subsidization and excess capacity

The U.S. steel industry has long held that foreign subsidization and excess capacity has led to its long-run demise, yet no one has formally examined this hypothesis. In this paper, we incorporate foreign subsidization considerations into a model based on Staiger and Wolak's (1992) cyclical dumping framework and illustrate testable implications of both cyclical excess capacity and structural excess capacity stemming from foreign subsidization. We then use detailed product- and foreign country-level data on steel exports to the U.S. market to estimate these excess capacity effects. While the full sample results provide evidence of both cyclical and structural excess capacity effects for exports to the U.S. market, these effects are confined to such a narrow range of country–product combinations that it is unlikely that such effects were a significant factor in the fortunes of U.S. steel firms over the past decades.     

Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is

In the last decade, more than 100 researchers have examined productivity spillovers from foreign affiliates to local firms in upstream or downstream sectors. Yet results vary broadly across methods and countries. To examine these vertical spillovers in a systematic way, we collected 3626 estimates of spillovers and reviewed the literature quantitatively. Our meta-analysis indicates that model misspecifications reduce the reported estimates and journals select relatively large estimates for publication. No selection, however, was found for working papers. Taking these biases into consideration, the average spillover to suppliers is economically significant, whereas the spillover to buyers is statistically significant but small. Greater spillovers are received by countries that have underdeveloped financial systems and are open to international trade. Greater spillovers are generated by investors who come from distant countries and have only a slight technological edge over local firms.     

International capital flows

The surge in international asset trade since the early 1990s has lead to renewed interest in models with international portfolio choice. We develop the implications of portfolio choice for both gross and net international capital flows in the context of a simple two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We focus on the time-variation in portfolio allocation following shocks, and resulting capital flows. Endogenous time-variation in expected returns and risk, which are the key determinants of portfolio choice, affect capital flows in often subtle ways. The model is consistent with a broad range of empirical evidence. An additional contribution of the paper is to overcome the technical difficulty of solving DSGE models with portfolio choice by developing a broadly applicable solution method.     

Do interest groups affect US immigration policy?

While anecdotal evidence suggests that interest groups play a key role in shaping immigration policy, there is no systematic empirical analysis of this issue. In this paper, we construct an industry-level dataset for the United States, by combining information on the number of temporary work visas with data on lobbying activity associated with immigration. We find robust evidence that both pro- and anti-immigration interest groups play a statistically significant and economically relevant role in shaping migration policy across sectors. Barriers to migration are lower in sectors in which business interest groups incur larger lobbying expenditures and higher in sectors where labor unions are more important.     

The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips

The impermanence of fixed exchange rates has become a stylized fact in international finance. The combination of the “mirage” view that pegs do not really peg with the “fear of floating” view that floats do not really float generates the conclusion that exchange rate regimes are, in practice, unimportant for the behavior of the exchange rate. This is consistent with evidence on the irrelevance of exchange rate regimes for general macroeconomic performance. Recent studies, however, show that the exchange rate regime matters. This can be understood by considering the dynamics of exchange rate regimes. We demonstrate that the “mirage” view is somewhat misleading and incomplete. Pegs frequently break, but many do last. Also, there is a high degree of flipping, that is, the re-formation of pegs that have broken. Thus, a fixed exchange rate today is a good predictor that one will exist in the future. We also investigate the quantitative effect of fixed exchange rates. While the “fear of floating” view suggests little actual difference in fixed and floating rates with respect to exchange rate volatility, we show that fixed exchange rates exhibit considerably greater bilateral exchange rate stability than flexible rates, both today and in the future.     

Location decision of heterogeneous multinational firms

We examine how multinational firms with heterogeneous total factor productivity (TFP) self-select into different host countries. Both aggregate- and firm-level estimates suggest that more productive French firms are more likely than their less efficient competitors to invest in relatively tough host countries. Countries with a smaller market potential, higher fixed costs of investment or lower import tariffs tend to have higher cutoff productivities and attract a greater proportion of productive multinationals. This self-selection mechanism remains largely robust when we control for unobserved firm and country heterogeneity and address potential TFP endogeneity.     

Why do most countries set high tax rates on capital?

We consider tax competition in a world with tax bases exhibiting different degrees of mobility, modeled as mobile and immobile capital. An agreement among countries not to give preferential treatment to mobile capital results in an equilibrium where mobile capital is nevertheless taxed relatively lightly. In particular, one or two of the smallest countries, measured by their stocks of immobile capital, choose relatively low tax rates, thereby attracting mobile capital away from the other countries, which are then left to set revenue-maximizing taxes on their immobile capital. This conclusion holds regardless of whether countries choose their tax policies sequentially or simultaneously. In contrast, unrestricted competition for mobile capital results in the preferential treatment of mobile capital by all countries, without cross-country differences in the taxation of mobile capital. Nevertheless our main result is that the non-preferential regime generates larger expected global tax revenue, despite the sizable revenue loss from the emergence of low-tax countries. By extending the analysis to include cross-country differences in productivities, we are able to resurrect a case for preferential regimes, but only if the productivity differences are sufficiently large.     

Political cycles under external economic constraints: Evidence from Cyprus

This paper examines the presence of political cycles in a small open economy using data from Cyprus over the period 1978–2006, and explores their conditionality upon external economic constraints, such as globalization and European integration. Two basic results emerge. First, we find evidence of partisan shifts in economic policies and outcomes, although these effects seem to decrease as globalization progresses, and to disappear in the run-up to EMU. This implies that, while partisan cycles can emerge under a certain domestic political setting, the sensitivity of an economy to globalization pressures and the challenges resulting from EU/EMU membership can lead to their weakening. Second, we find evidence of electoral shifts in certain, more visible, subcomponents of the fiscal balance. However, in contrast to partisan distinctions, these opportunistic effects become more pronounced as globalization proceeds. It seems that constraints imposed on the ability of politicians to ingratiate themselves with partisans, may actually strengthen their incentives to engage in electioneering.     

Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach

The typical conclusion reached when researchers examine exchange rate exposure is that only a few firms are exposed. This finding is puzzling since institutional knowledge and theory suggests a larger effect. In this paper, we compare results obtained using a linear approach with those from nonlinear and nonparametric models. Among firms that don't have a linear exposure, we find that a considerable proportion of these are exposed when nonlinear or nonparametric models are used. This exposure is most striking when a nonparametric model is used. We also find that firms' hedging activities decrease linear exposure but don't affect nonparametric exposure.     

Who's afraid of a globalized world? Foreign Direct Investments, local knowledge and allocation of talents

We study the distributional effects of globalization within a model of heterogeneous agents where both managerial talent and knowledge of the local economic environment are required in order to become a successful entrepreneur. Agents willing to set up a firm abroad incur a learning cost that depends on how different the foreign and domestic entrepreneurial environments are. In this context, we show that globalization fosters FDI and raises wages, output and productivity. However, not everybody wins. The steady state relationship between globalization and income is U-shaped: high- and low-income agents are better off in a globalized world, while middle-income agents (domestic entrepreneurs) are worse off. Thus, consistently with recent empirical evidence, the model predicts globalization to increase inequality at the top of the income distribution while decreasing it at the bottom.