The Impact of Interest Rates and The Housing Market on The UK Economy

The Chancellor has asked Professor David Miles to examine the UK market for longer-term fixed rate mortgages. This paper by Adrian Cooper, which is part of a study commissioned by the Miles Review, presents the results of a series of simulations using the OEF Model of the UK economy to investigate the contribution of the housing market to macroeconomic volatility and the implications of changing the structure of mortgage finance from the current variable rate system linked to short-term interest rates to a fixed rate system linked to long rates. The main findings are that the housing market has been a contributor to past volatility in the UK economy, and that moving to a fixed rate structure would reduce the impact of a change in interest rates on key macroeconomic indicators.     

Why Do Mortgage Markets Matter?

1999 saw the return of large scale mortgage equity - ie mortgage borrowing to finance consumption rather than house purchase - for the first time for a decade. Recent developments of the OEF macroeconometric model of the UK economy have focused on the determination of mortgage lending, looking in particular at the impact of downpayment constraints - ie the deposit borrowers have to put down when they buy a house. In this article, Geoffrey Meen uses this model to analyse the effects of mortgages on: (i) the cycle in the UK housing market at a national level; (ii) regional house price differentials; and (iii) aggregate savings and consumer behaviour.     

The Impact of Shocks on the UK Economy in and Out of EMU

Entry to EMU at an inappropriate exchange rate could trigger a full-blown business cycle in the UK. Once inside EMU, the UK's response to a number of different economic shocks would change — partly because of the fixed exchange rate, and partly because of the common monetary policy. In particular, when an asymmetric shock occurs — one that hits the UK harder than other Eurozone economies — the UK response is generally likely to be more pronounced inside EMU than outside. We find that that result still applies even in a reformed EMU — one in which the ECB and the labour market are reformed to bring them closer to the Anglo–Saxon model.     

China and the UK Economy

China's boom has been a major pillar of the global economic recovery from early 2002 onwards. However, earlier this year fears that the economic boom was threatening to run out of control prompted the Chinese authorities to implement a number of targeted measures to try to restrain activity in the most overheated sectors. This article by Simon Knapp discusses both how much the UK has benefited from the China boom and how much it might be affected if the Chinese slowdown now becomes a hard landing. It argues that emerging Asia, Japan and raw materials producers have been the principal beneficiaries of the China boom, while the UK's gains have been small, because exports to the whole of Asia only account for 9% of the total. Equally, looking forward, the UK, and the UK's two major trading partners, the US and Eurozone, would only be relatively lightly affected if Chinese growth decelerated rapidly, as they would be helped by offsets such as lower oil prices and a lower interest rate profile. However, the current evidence suggests that the Chinese economy is slowing down in broadly the way the government wants, with the greatest deceleration in the previously overheated sectors but relatively little impact on the export and consumer sectors. An abrupt halt in bank lending could, however, still pose a significant downside risk.     

Brexit and world growth – what are the risks?

• The initial global market reaction to the UK Brexit vote was very negative and in our view overdone. Nevertheless, we expect the uncertainty to linger for a while, with the vote having refocused investors on existing vulnerabilities in the world economy. Our new forecasts see the main negative impacts on growth being in the UK, the Eurozone and Japan. Risks to our new forecasts remain skewed to the downside, with a significant danger of world growth dropping below 2% this year.
• Our new forecasts see UK growth dropping to 1.4% a year in 2017–18, down from 2.2–2.3% a year before. In the Eurozone, growth will be around 0.2% a year weaker in 2017–18 and Japan is also a loser as a result of the risk aversion‐driven stronger yen, with growth at just 0.3% in 2017 from 0.5%.
• The size of the initial global market sell‐off makes no sense in the context of the likely impact from a weaker UK. In part, it seems to have reflected the pricing in of very negative scenarios in the Eurozone. But investors may also be worrying about other global problems glossed over in recent months.
• One risk to our forecast is that confidence effects on businesses and consumers are larger than we expect – but such effects are often overstated. Another danger is that more of the recent financial market weakness will ‘stick’ than our new baseline forecasts assume.
• Our world recession indicator is already at elevated levels and suggests a significant danger of world growth slipping below 2% this year; not a recession, but it might feel like one. Global policymakers need to act quickly to head off the risks.

     

天津滨海新区房地产业发展和住房保障体系研究

住房是人的基本权利，各国政府均十分关注。住房保障是市场经济必不可少的补充，是房地产发展的重要组成部分。滨海新区人口规模的扩大、经济的高速发展对住宅需求持续增加。然而，滨海新区在房地产市场发展过程中也暴露出一些问题。本文研究了滨海新区房地产业和住房保障体系的经济背景和社会背景，剖析了深圳和浦东新区以及英国、日本、新加坡和我国香港地区的住宅经验。通过比较分析，提出完善滨海新区房地产业和住房保障体系的具体措施。     

A re-examination of housing bubbles: Evidence from European countries

This study uses data from six Eurozone countries and the United Kingdom between 1980Q1 and 2018Q4 to examine whether these countries had housing bubbles during the observed period. Whereas typical studies make strictly limited assumptions regarding interest rates, we make an unconventional argument for the necessity of testing the integration relationship between the price–rent ratio and the interest rate reciprocal to determine the existence of housing bubbles. To verify this study’s proposition, two housing bubble indicators were adopted to dynamically examine periods of housing bubbles in European countries by using a series of individual countries and panel data from Eurozone countries. According to the empirical results for individual countries, although the price–rent ratio indicates the occurrence of housing booms in the targeted countries, the evidence for housing bubbles is unclear. The dynamic bubble indicator revealed that housing bubbles occurred in France and Ireland within a short period in 1993Q3 and 2000Q2, respectively. Spain experienced two short-term housing bubbles in 1990Q1 and 2015Q1. The short-term bubbles signify that the housing markets were efficient. Once the price–rent ratio failed to converge toward the nominal interest rate, market traders’ rational behavior can immediately correct the short-term market divergence. The panel data of the Eurozone countries also reveals that simply using the price–rent ratio for examination may underestimate the correction of the housing markets. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of the interest rate in controlling the housing market.     

Stock returns and carry trades

This paper studies the role the stock market plays in determining the carry trade return. Evidence shows stock market returns significantly affect the carry trade returns in Australia, Mexico, Japan, the UK, Sweden, and the Eurozone. This paper further examines three channels through which stock returns affect the carry trade returns: the Balassa-Samuelson, risk-premium, and flight-to-quality effects. Our model shows that the stock market impact on the carry trade return depends on stock market volatility, and the flight-to-quality effect prevails globally. Furthermore, the introduction of the stock return significantly improves the out-of-sample forecast of the carry trade return when the domestic market is volatile.     

The UK and EMU: Lessons from Europe

Her Majesty's Treasury is due to report in June 2003 on the economic case for the UK adopting the Euro. One criterion concerns the extent of economic convergence between the UK and the European Union countries. Differences in financial, credit and housing institutions between countries present one important subset of constraints to sustained convergence (Maclennan et al, 1998) - largely neglected in the economic literature on common currency areas. These types of differences create tension within the Eurozone. Empirical evidence supporting these concerns has emerged in signs of overheating in the Netherlands, UK and some of the fringe economies, and in the relative stagnation of Germany and Italy. The UK's buoyancy, however, is accompanied by serious economic imbalances, with consequent risks of instability. These would be exacerbated should the UK be prematurely locked into an exchange rate and interest rate regime unresponsive to domestic conditions. There is much to learn from European experience: from Germany and Italy, on the consequences of illiberal economic structures; from The Netherlands, on some of the risks of liberal credit markets; and from Denmark, with a liberal credit market but rational property taxation. In this paper, John Muellbauer argues that convergence does not have to be fully achieved, if there is a counterbalancing policy instrument to mitigate some of the effects of these slow-to-dissipate differences. Specifically in the UK, a reformed system of property taxation would contribute greatly to long-term stability and the preservation of economic balance.     

Economic fundamentals and Eurozone sovereign spreads: will the good news continue?

Spreads between government bond yields in the Eurozone periphery and Germany have fallen to the lowest levels in 3 to 4 years. There are two major factors behind this. The first is the speech by ECB President Mario Draghi on 26 July 2012 promising ‘to do – within its mandate – whatever it takes’ and the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions initiative of summer 2012. This has been successful in eliminating fears of an imminent Eurozone break‐up. The second factor is the improvement in economic fundamentals in the periphery countries, particularly in Ireland, Spain and Greece. Previous econometric work on the role of economic fundamentals at the country level has focused almost entirely on government debt and government deficit to GDP ratios. The true fundamentals have been obscured by market panics and by the fact that markets really only took full account of these fundamentals from the end of 2010. Before the middle of 2007, markets ignored the build‐up of stresses between Eurozone countries. Once amplification of perceived risks by market panics and the shift from inattention to full market attention are taken into account, a far more nuanced picture emerges of what country fundamentals really matter for sovereign spreads. In addition to excessive government debt, deteriorating competitiveness, excessive private debt, and housing market crises spilling into banking systems, have been especially prominent in the countries at the periphery. In Ireland and Spain, declining relative unit labour costs and the fading of the housing crisis have recently been important in narrowing spreads against Germany. The econometric model also suggests that good news on relative growth and inflation help narrow spreads. Prospects for further narrowing of spreads for Greece and especially for Spain look good. Once the current bout of falling spreads is over, the underlying picture suggested by the estimated model is less good for Ireland, Italy and Portugal and for the euro area core economy, France. In all four cases, the government debt to GDP ratio has been deteriorating, and for France and Italy, competitiveness has not improved significantly. For France, another factor is the rising level of the private debt to GDP ratio. For Ireland, scope is limited for the effect on the spread of further improvements in competitiveness and housing market recovery.     

关于住宅房产市场分析的问题解析及对策

随着我国房地产经济增长方式开始从粗放型向集约型转化，面对着住宅市场的有效供给不足的问题，在投资决策时要加强对住宅房地产市场分析的有效性。现阶段住宅房地产开发中市场分析凸现的问题有缺乏系统全面的供需分析、忽视针对消费者需求分析、定性分析不足等。为适应住宅市场开发的深入细化，针对存在的问题，提出了住宅市场分析的主要方法和对策。所有的住宅开发项目的意义在于它是应需求而产生，并为满足这些需求。     

Housing: the challenge for policy

In this article, Kate Barker, Chief Economic Advisor to the CBI, argues that housing market policies need to adapt to reflect the changing nature of the UK economy. In a flexible labour market with more job insecurity, a stronger rented sector is likely to be needed. But while policies have recently shifted away from supporting owner-occupation - in particular by reducing mortgage tax relief - there has been a lack of a coherent approach to encouraging affective forms of tenure. The article discusses a number of different policies which meet the two objectives of stimulating a stronger supply of rented housing, while reducing the volatility of the owner-occupied sector.     

低收入群体的住房保障与信贷支持——基于住房过滤理论的分析

近年来,我国城市住房价格持续上升.保障低收入群体的基本居住权已成为城市建设和房地产业发展所面临的重大问题.目前,各部门和各地区针对住房保障问题,从供给和需求两方面制定了诸多的保障政策.但对于市场化条件下住房保障体系的内在运行机理研究则较为滞后.而国外的相关研究表明,住房过滤模型理论可以从微观角度时住房市场的结构性问题进行定量分析,并对住房价格进行生命周期全过程分析,较真实地反映住房市场特别是住房保障体系的运行机理.因此本文尝试从住房过滤模型的角度分析国内住房保障政策与住房信贷政策的实施效果,并结合该模型的适用条件与面临的现实障碍,探索住房保障措施及住房信贷制度的优化途径.     

The Pound and the Punt: A Study in Exchange Rate Policy

The rise in sterling during 1979 and 1980 was a remarkable and largely unexpected development While it has been accepted that the rise in the exchange rate played an important part in the reduction in the UK inflation rate during 1980 it has also been suggested that the appreciation of sterling was a major cause of the fall in output, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
In this Viewpoint we attempt to assess the effect of the rise in sterling on output and inflation by comparing the performance of the UK economy with that of the Irish Republic. As a member of the European Monetary System (EMS), Ireland shared the general depreciation of the European currencies against sterling. We suggest that the result has been a higher rate of inflation in Ireland than in the UK Also, although the Irish manufacturing sector avoided the UK's loss of competitiveness, the fall in manufacturing output in Ireland during 1980 was - when allowance is made for a higher underlying rate of growth in Ireland - comparable to that in the UK     

Efficiency and Seasonality in the UK Housing Market, 1991–2001*

This paper considers the informational efficiency of the UK owner‐occupied housing market over the period 1991–2001. Original small‐area, monthly, quality‐adjusted house price index series are developed from raw housing transaction observations for a number of UK counties and cities. These series are then tested in an autoregressive setting for characteristics indicative of weak market efficiency and seasonality. The major conclusion drawn is that there exists little evidence to support notions of inefficiency in these markets over the period considered.     

The down-payment constraint and UK housing market: Does the theory fit the facts?

This paper considers empirical implications of the down-payment constraint for the UK housing market. It shows that, at the aggregate-level, models of the housing market with this constraint are consistent with a number of stylized facts. The paper then exploits variation across local housing markets and considers how leverage affects the response of house price inflation to shocks. The evidence, based on data for 147 district-level housing markets for the period 1993–2002, suggests that a large incidence of households with high leverage (loan-to-value ratios) raises the sensitivity of house prices to a shock. This is also consistent with the down-payment constraint model.     

Greece in the Eurozone: Lessons from a decade of experience

This study examines Greece's experience as a member of the Eurozone over the period 2002 to 2011. In evaluating the Greek experience within the Eurozone, we derive the following fundamental policy lessons that apply both to similar small peripheral EU countries that plan to enter the Eurozone, or any other economic union, and to the Eurozone itself in terms of facilitating their integration in a large monetary union. First, countries with inefficient public systems must re-engineer and restructure the decision making process in the public sector before they become members of an economic union. Second, countries must generate a friendly environment toward business and provide (a) a simple, stable tax system, (b) an effective and efficient justice system, and (c) a high quality educational system. Third, the living standards of the people are determined by the productivity and competitiveness of the economy and not by an inefficient and overspending public sector. Fourth, structural funds should be used to improve the competitiveness of the economy, not serve the political clientele of the party in power. Fifth, the admission requirements to an economic union must be strict and these requirements must be enforced. Sixth, capital market investors must always differentiate default risk within the country-members of a monetary union.     

Will the US overcome austerity to lead the world recovery?

Global growth is weak but may be at a turning point in the G7. Europe will soon return to growth, with a weak recovery set to develop. This reflects an improvement in exports as the US economy accelerates and emerging markets gradually improve after a soft patch. Furthermore, with the worst of the Eurozone crisis over, companies and households should be more willing to spend. The recovery would be stronger were there an easing of austerity and action by the ECB to ease credit constraints; simulations using Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model suggest that halving the currently planned austerity measures would raise the level of Eurozone GDP relative to our baseline by 0.2% in 2013 and by a further 0.7% in 2014…     

A probabilistic approach to the structure of rental housing markets

A probabilistic view of the structure of urban housing markets is developed. The demand side is based on aggregate probabilistic demand functions derived from microbehavioral random utility theory. The supply side examines the short-run pricing of the housing stock by developing “asking rent theory,” which explains how a housing supplier must find the optimal rent that maximizes expected revenue. Next, concepts of aggregate market clearing and market equilibrium are defined. Finally, a two-submarket model with specific assumptions regarding the representation of demand and the nature of market signaling is examined in detail and is given a graphical illustration. In closing, directions for extending the probabilistic approach both within and beyond urban analysis are pointed out. All analysis in this paper is for a stationary urban economy, with the housing stock assumed fixed.     

Spillover effects of human service facilities in a racially segmented housing market

Previous studies of human service facility spillovers on residential property values have been inconclusive, and have failed to take into account the effects of racial segmentation of housing markets. Likewise, studies of racial discrimination in urban housing markets and price differentials between white and nonwhite areas of the city have failed to consider the impacts of service facilities on prices. This study develops an hedonic price model of housing services in a racially segmented housing market, which considers a variety of human service facilities and their spillover effects. Model results for Oakland, California in 1976 indicate that facilities significantly affect housing prices both positively and negatively, and that these effects vary by racial submarket. Implications of these findings for the interpretation of past discrimination studies, facility impact studies, and social policy are considered.