后疫情时代全球贸易保护主义发展趋势及中国应对策略北大核心CSSCI

后疫情时代,全球化进程变缓并呈现新的特征。兼顾效率、公平与安全的全球化逐渐取代以效率主导的全球化,区域布局的全球化与数字智能全球化也在加速形成,因此维护贸易公平和国家产业安全将成为后疫情时代贸易保护的重要“借口”,全球价值链收缩下区域性贸易保护成为主要形式,而数字智能等领域将成为高发区,贸易保护或将成为常态。在应对策略方面,中国不仅需要以正确的“危机观”重新审视后疫情时代贸易保护,还应当转变经济发展格局和参与全球贸易治理的方式,积极呼吁构建开放型世界经济,参与和推动国际贸易与投资规则重构。     

浅析后疫情时代医院供应链风险

突发的新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延引发人流、物流、资金流等要素循环“暂停”,堪比医学上因血液循环锐减造成的“休克”,对全球发展影响的严重性不可小觑,给全世界的生产生活带来重大的冲击,让本已较脆弱的医院供应链发展状况愈加糟糕。文章结合疫情后期医院供应链风险特征,剖析供应链风险的内在本质,提出相关的策略和措施,以便决策者在应对风险时避免或者减小损失。     

后疫情时代中国能源发展形势与应对措施

新冠肺炎疫情给世界政治经济带来了深远的影响,也使得未来的国际能源发展形势更加复杂.后疫情时代中国能源发展面临地缘政治及传统和非传统安全问题加剧,国际油气未来价格不确定性增大,能源产业链收缩、核心产能本土化进程加快,能源转型相对成本提高等新形势.新形势下需要通过树立底线思维、把握当前国际能源价格低位机遇、优化调整能源产业...     

分析后疫情时代全球金融治理体系建构与中国策略选择

本文主要以后疫情时代全球金融治理体系建构与中国策略选择为重点进行阐述,首先分析后疫情时代全球金融治理面临的困境,其次阐述后疫情时代全球金融治理体系建构的相关思路,最后从主动协调中国与主要国家的关系,推广命运共同体的合作理念、支持新型金融组织建设,推动区域货币金融合作、强调数字化金融治理,提高金融治理质量、利用多边机制,...     

后疫情时代下实体零售业发展的思考

随着全球一体化进程逐步加快,电商销售冲击着传统零售企业,也为传统零售业的转型与升级带来了新的机遇与挑战."O2O""新零售""新业态"等概念常被提及,加速转型与升级是零售业变革的重点方向.然而2020年暴发的新冠疫情,使得零售业再次经受巨大的冲击.这不仅是消费方式单一层面的改变,对经济、社会民生等多维度产生了深远影响....     

后疫情时代消费观变化与刺激内需策略的调查研究

新冠疫情对世界经济造成很大影响。在双循环新发展格局下,发挥国内市场优势,扩大内需对中国经济的发展至关重要。本文采用理论研究法、问卷调查法、实证分析法和倾向评分匹配(PSM)分析,基于面向全国范围调查的覆盖16种主要职业的抽样调查数据,重点探讨了后疫情时代消费者消费观念的变化,总结出当前刺激内需策略所面临的困境：策略范围限制,潜力尚未激发;经济压力增大,观念趋于保守;聚焦中低收入,社会保障缺乏;刺激手段匮乏,存在固有缺陷;线下消费受阻,政策难以奏效;固定收入降低,经济压力凸显;追求超级折扣,掉入消费陷阱;使用门槛较高,获取途径较难等。最后,本文进一步指出困境形成的原因及针对性解决思路,并为刺激经济复苏、系统拉动内需提出相关建议。     

Carbon policy and the structure of global trade

Alternative perspectives on the structure of international trade have important implications for the evaluation of climate policy. In this paper, we assess climate policy in the context of three important alternative trade formulations. First is a Heckscher‐Ohlin model based on trade in homogeneous products, which establishes the traditional neoclassical view on comparative advantage. Second is an Armington model based on regionally differentiated goods, which is a popular specification for numerical simulations of trade policy. Third is a Melitz model based on monopolistic competition and firm heterogeneity. This heterogeneous‐firms framework is adopted in many contemporary theoretic and empirical investigations in international trade. As we show in this paper, the three alternative trade formulations have important implications for the assessment of climate policy with respect to competitive effects for energy‐intensive production (and hence carbon leakage) as well as the transmission of policy burdens across countries.     

国际贸易环境下我国对外贸易政策的发展方向

近十几年来,全球贸易量取得了惊人的跨越式增长,而自由贸易与环境的关系问题也日趋尖锐。一方面,许多发达国家利用不对等的贸易和投资手段从发展中国家攫取大量战略性资源,却造成这些国家境内生态环境的严重失调;另一方面,一味地追求贸易扩张、资金积累和工业化又实际加剧了全球环境的恶化。环境效应对贸易的挤压性制约日益上升为国际贸易发展的焦点。在此背景下,引入环境变量,促进贸易策略的可持续性便成为实现我国对外贸易科学发展的必然之路。     

Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains

This paper identifies the determinants of China's bilateral trade balance using a new measure based on international input–output data, the so-called ‘trade in value-added’ (TiVA), which can prevent double counting in the estimation of bilateral trade balance. Our results show that using a measure based on gross exports, rather than TiVA, causes relatively large overestimation of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's bilateral trade balance. This overestimation is mainly because that the increasing production of exports may require increasing intermediate imports as a consequence of international fragmentation of production in global value chains. In addition, our results also show that the impact of FDI inflows on China's bilateral trade balances depends on the position and role of China and its trading partners in GVCs.     

Managing threats in the global era: The impact and response to SARS

In early 2003, the SARS virus brought disruption of public and business activities in many areas of the world, particularly Asia. As a result of its impact, SARS quickly established itself as a new kind of global uncertainty and posed challenges for traditional methods of risk management. This article examines the impact that SARS has had through means of a case study and builds on this to provide recommendations for how uncertainty may be managed in an increasingly globalized world. Reconsideration of strategic and risk‐management approaches have become necessary. Supply‐chain management and corporate strategy require a fundamental rethink to balance the pursuit of efficiency with increased responsiveness and flexibility. Unpredictability and turbulence in the international business environment suggest that traditional planning approaches that assume linear growth may give way to more scenario‐based planning. This will encourage firms to contemplate a variety of possible futures and better prepare them for unanticipated events. Similarly, contingent‐based continuity plans help businesses continue running even during a crisis. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

绿色贸易壁垒发展趋势及我国的应对

中国入世以来,对外贸易尤其是出口贸易快速增长,与此同时,各种矛盾与摩擦也屡屡发生,其中绿色壁垒是近年来困扰中国出口企业的主要问题之一.虽然国内学术界对于绿色壁垒进行了多角度的研究,企业、贸促机构、政府相关部门也采取了多种因应对策,但总体效果不佳.尤其是西方国家的绿色壁垒措施的一些新的发展和变化,使得国内出口企业应接不暇,本文拟对近年绿色壁垒一些新的变化趋势进行系统分析,以期对国内企业应对绿色壁垒助一臂之力.     

Market response to policy initiatives during the global financial crisis

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic and financial sector policy announcements in the United States, the United Kingdom, the euro area, and Japan on interbank credit and liquidity risk premia during the recent crisis. Overall, policy interventions were associated with a reduction in interbank risk premia, most significantly for recapitalization programs. By contrast, decisions to bail out individual banks in an ad hoc manner or let them fail were accompanied by a significant rise in interbank risk premia. Most policy announcements had international spillovers. These results are broadly robust to using alternative measures of financial distress and varying the size of the event window.     

Reciprocated unilateralism in trade policy

Using the menu-auction approach to endogenous determination of tariffs and allowing additionally for lobby formation itself to be endogenous, this paper analyzes the impact of unilateral trade liberalization by one country on its partner's trade policies. We find that such unilateral liberalization may induce reciprocal tariff reductions by the partner country. Intuitively, unilateral liberalization by one country has the effect of increasing the incentives for the export lobby in the partner country to form and to lobby effectively against the import-competing lobby there for lower protection.     

Lobbying costs and trade policy

We study how endogenous lobbying costs influence trade policies. Although in practice lobbying expenditures far exceed campaign contributions, the literature on the political economy of trade policy has focused on the latter. In this paper we develop a model in which informational lobbying costs play a role in determining the structure of protection. In the model, special interest groups can choose to send a signal to the policymaker regarding some information they possess, and the policymaker observes the signal before setting the trade policies. We find that lobbying expenditures directly affect the equilibrium policies. In order to test the predictions of the model we collected data on lobbying expenditures from the Center for Responsible Politics as well as data on trade and industry characteristic variables for the United States from other sources. We perform a structural estimation of the equilibrium trade policies and find support for our model. The empirical evidence indicates that lobbying expenditures play an important role in explaining the variation of protection across sectors. Moreover, the model leads to considerably lower and more reasonable estimates of the weight that the government places on social welfare relative to political contributions.     

Subcontracting bargaining power and the trade policy

In this paper, we consider that the split of surplus from a subcontracting deal depends on the relative bargaining powers of domestic and foreign firms. The finding shows that a domestic optimal export policy is a tax (subsidy) if the bargaining power of the domestic firm is sufficiently small (large). We also demonstrate that a domestic firm’s higher bargaining power increases (may decrease) domestic profit if the export policy is exogenous (endogenous). In the presence of an outsider option, the domestic optimal export policy will be threatened by the outsider option if the domestic firm’s bargaining power is sufficiently small, and thus a large bargaining power increases the optimal export tax. At the same time, the foreign firm may still subcontract to the domestic firm even if the domestic firm has a higher total marginal cost of the intermediate good than the outsider option.