Risk measure pricing and hedging in incomplete markets

This article attempts to extend the complete market option pricing theory to incomplete markets. Instead of eliminating the risk by a perfect hedging portfolio, partial hedging will be adopted and some residual risk at expiration will be tolerated. The risk measure (or risk indifference) prices charged for buying or selling an option are associated to the capital required for dynamic hedging so that the risk exposure will not increase. The associated optimal hedging portfolio is decided by minimizing a convex measure of risk. I will give the definition of risk-efficient options and confirm that options evaluated by risk measure pricing rules are indeed risk-efficient. Relationships to utility indifference pricing and pricing by valuation and stress measures will be discussed. Examples using the shortfall risk measure and average VaR will be shown. The work of Mingxin Xu is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant SES-0518869. I would like to thank Steven Shreve for insightful comments, especially his suggestions to extend the pricing idea from using shortfall risk measure to coherent ones, and to study its relationship to utility based derivative pricing. The comments from the associate editor and the anonymous referee have reshaped the paper into its current version. The paper has benefited from discussions with Freddy Delbaen, Jan Večeř, David Heath, Dmitry Kramkov, Peter Carr, and Joel Avrin.     

Risk and the cosmopolitanization of solidarities

Abstract

For classical sociologists, national solidarity was a response to the risks and uncertainties of modernity. National solidarity was said to provide the foundations for social order and justice (Durkheim), serve as the basis for political legitimacy (Weber), and address issues of (in)equality (Marx). Throughout the twentieth century, national solidarity seemed to perform these functions adequately, if often at the expense of those not belonging to the national community. However, with the demise of progress as a cultural prophylaxis to contain the future, it is often said that newly emergent world risks spell the end of solidarity. On this view, risk, individualization, and the cosmopolitanization of life worlds are contributing to the fragmentation of societies and pushing solidarity toward expiration. Yet, this jeremiad is based on an anachronistic notion of solidarity, which does not account for the recent adaptations of nationhood. In contrast, I argue that new global risks are not detrimental to the notion of solidarity but rather serve as a precondition for the emergence of cosmopolitanized solidarities. Global culture and political norms from human rights to environmentalism have catalyzed a reimagining of nationhood itself. In order to grasp new forms of solidarity which buttress this reimagined nationhood, I draw on Ulrich Beck’s distinction between three historically specific iterations of the concept of risk, as something that: can be calculated; is malign and incalculable; has the potential to generate goods.     

Risk(ing) Metaphors

Metaphors appear in almost every realm of our existence permeating even the supposedly “literal" contexts of high-energy physics laboratories and play a central role in defining and organizing both everyday and scientific realities. Metaphors are not an optional literary device but rather enable us to understand and experience one thing in terms of another. They focus our attention upon particular aspects of a thing that we might otherwise overlook and, in doing so, they also deflect our attention from other aspects. In directing and deflecting our attention, metaphors help us to construct our perceptions of reality in particular ways, guide our actions, and are used to frame issues as problems and to assess the feasibility and appropriateness of various possibilities as solutions. Metaphors are also found within the pages of highly technical texts such as The Original Pronouncements produced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). In this paper, I begin to examine more closely the metaphors that the FASB has included in its texts. Specifically, I highlight the many different metaphors that have been used in connection with risk by the FASB. These metaphors have included orientational, attribute, and ontological metaphors. I end by commenting that these metaphors have contributed to the thinkability of risk management and to considerations of risk as an opponent that must and should be confronted and managed. I question the blind spots in our thinking about risk that these metaphors may be creating and perpetuating and suggest how different metaphors might lead to different ways of thinking about risk.     

Relative Hedging of Systematic Mortality Risk

A number of problematic issues have arisen in anticipation of the potential role of molecular tests for genetic predispositions to illness in risk assessment by insurance underwriters. We argue in this paper that the regrettable history and current risks of genetic discrimination warrant a presumption that genetic predisposition status should not be used in any nonmedical contexts, unless compelling evidence can demonstrate that serious harm will result to third-party interests without such use. We argue that insurers should not be able to initiate testing for genetic predisposition. We also argue that there are many reasons to doubt whether patients’ test results will result in such serious adverse selection as to cause substantial harm to insurance markets, except possibly at higher policy amounts in life or disability income insurance. We conclude that the burden of proof must be on insurers to demonstrate necessity of use in specific cases in which test availability shows high probability of imminent, serious harm to insurance markets.     

Risk Communication and the Social Amplification of Public Sector Risk

Concerns exist within the public sector about the ability of organizations to communicate issues of risk. These concerns include: the nature and magnitude of risks; the vulnerability of those who may bear the consequences associated with an event; and the sense of helplessness felt by victim groups. Apart from the public sector's role as risk generator, regulator and communicator, it also has some responsibility for dealing with the consequences of a major catastrophic event through agencies such as health care and the emergency services. Under certain conditions, it is apparent that concerns over risk issues can escalate beyond a level expected by those charged with the management of that risk. Within this framework, the effective communication of risk and uncertainty is an integral, but often neglected, part of public sector activities. This article explores the process of risk communication and risk amplification and suggests a number of perspectives on policy development.     

Anticipatory anthropology and world peace: a view from 2050

Norman Geras has written a searing indictment of current first-world policies related to our roles in keeping the world peace and our abilities to respond to human rights violations. This paper is partly a response to Geras's book, The contract of mutual indifference: politics since the Holocaust. Thus, genocide is the peace issue I will discuss here. I will use Bosnia, because I have had two occasions to work there and have talked with Bosnians from all walks of life as well as the humanitarian agents there to help them. Second, the paper will define the character of a fully responsive anticipatory anthropology and I will sketch out the nature of some possible peace futures. A third main purpose of this paper is to contribute to the development of the social science of peace.     

相对业绩差距评估对基金经理风险承担的激励研究

基金经理在选择投资组合风险时,不仅会考虑基金的业绩排名,同时会考虑基金业绩之间的差距,由此提出了业绩差距排名,并提出了新的实证方法,即线性回归的方法来研究业绩差距排名对基金经理风险承担的影响,同时验证了BHS结论在中国基金市场中的适用性。结果表明BHS结论在中国基金市场中是不成立的,同时表明在中国基金市场中基金经理具有相对业绩排名目标,但此相对业绩排名是本文中所提出的业绩差距排名,此结论可以为监管部门规范基金投资行为以及为投资者选择基金提供参考。     

民元后本国证券交易所均选择公司制的原因及其反思

证券交易所有会员制与公司制两种组织形式,各有利弊,分别适合于不同环境条件下的市场。不同国家、同一国家不同时期、同一时期不同的交易所基于各种考虑而选择的组织形式不尽相同。而交易所组织形式的选择是否恰当,对于特定时期特定市场环境下交易所运营的绩效及交易所事业的发展,会产生较大的影响。民元后国人自办证券交易所均采用公司组织,有其原因、作用和值得注意的问题。我国现有会员制证券交易所未来的组织制度选择也应该借鉴过去的经验和教训。     

Discussion of “The robustness of the Sabarnes Oxley effect on the U.S. capital market”

In this paper, I use anecdotal evidence and logical reasoning to suggest that, despite the use of an extensive database, it is not possible to conclude that passage of the Sarbanes Oxley Act did not have an impact on companies’ delisting decisions. Moreover, the instrumental variables used to proxy for SOX effects are too weak and suffer from a significant endogeneity problem given that passage of SOX was driven by many of the economic and control problems that are used to control for market and company factors. I also discuss some broader issues about the trade-off between large sample statistical inference and anecdotal analysis for addressing practical questions.     

Insider trading and the long-run performance of new security issues

This paper uses insider trading around new security issues to provide evidence of managerial timing ability. I show that insider sales increase and purchases decrease prior to issues of information-sensitive securities (convertible debt and equity) by industrial firms. I then examine the relation between insider trading and subsequent stock returns. Although not all equity issues are motivated by overvaluation, those where managers sell prior to the issue are more likely to be. I find that industrial firms with abnormal insider selling underperform in the long run, whereas those with abnormal buying do not. There is no evidence of a relation between abnormal selling and future performance for utility offerings, however. Overall, the evidence is consistent with poor long-term performance being due to overvaluation.     

境外劳务不予征收营业税情况的判定难点及对策

境外劳务不予征收营业税的情况在判定上存在一定难点,企业利用现有政策避税,给税收征管带来一定的困难,也造成了部分企业间的税负不公。本文通过剖析问题所在,提出了相应对策。     

Relationship-Specific Assets and the Pricing of Underwriter Services

This paper investigates the effect of setup costs on the pricing of investment banking services. The existence of setup costs is predicted to result in lower underwriter spreads in IPOs for firms that are expected to issue again. Consistent with this prediction, I find significantly lower spreads for firms that make subsequent issues. I also find that a firm's likelihood of changing underwriters in a subsequent offer is related to the time between offerings and the underwriter's pricing performance in the IPO. These results suggest that the deviations from optimal IPO pricing carry a penalty for the underwriter.     

The perception of time,risk and return during periods of speculation

Abstract

What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people's behaviour? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, I approach these topics by exploring the consequences of two simple hypotheses about risk.

The first is a common-sense invariance principle: assets with the same perceived risk must have the same expected return. It leads directly to the well known Sharpe ratio and the classic risk-return relationships of arbitrage pricing theory and the capital asset pricing model.

The second hypothesis concerns the perception of time. I conjecture that in times of speculative excitement, short-term investors may instinctively imagine stock prices to be evolving in a time measure different from that of calendar time. They may perceive and experience the risk and return of a stock in intrinsic time, a dimensionless time scale that counts the number of trading opportunities that occur, but pays no attention to the calendar time that passes between them.

Applying the first hypothesis in the intrinsic time measure suggested by the second, I derive an alternative set of relationships between risk and return. Its most noteworthy feature is that, in the short-term, a stock's trading frequency affects its expected return. I show that short-term stock speculators will expect returns proportional to the temperature of a stock, where temperature is defined as the product of the stock's traditional volatility and the square root of its trading frequency. Furthermore, I derive a modified version of the capital asset pricing model in which a stock's excess return relative to the market is proportional to its traditional beta multiplied by the square root of its trading frequency.

I also present a model for the joint interaction of long-term calendar-time investors and short-term intrinsic-time speculators that leads to market bubbles characterized by stock prices that grow super-exponentially with time.

Finally, I show that the same short-term approach to options speculation can lead to an implied volatility skew.

I hope that this model will have some relevance to the behaviour of investors expecting inordinate returns in highly speculative markets.     

The Pricing of Best Efforts New Issues

This paper offers an explanation for the underpricing of best efforts new issues and demonstrates that best efforts contracts allow issuers to use information from the market. If investors obtain information which indicates that a project will not be profitable, their demand will be low and the offering will be withdrawn. If this information is costly, investors will have to be compensated for its purchase through a lower offering price, which means that issuers will have to underprice. This result is consistent with the empirical observation that underpricing is considerably greater for best efforts than for firm commitment contracts.     

Internal corporate prediction markets: “From each according to his bet”

Experimental markets (e.g., Iowa Experimental Markets) have been successful at capturing market price predictions of future events, such as who will win the U.S. Presidential election. As a result, prediction markets have been moved to corporations, in the form of internal corporate prediction markets, where participants bet on the occurrence of events of interest to the corporation. Corporations have used prediction markets for a number of different types of applications including project management, investment choice, forecasting sales, and others. Accordingly, prediction markets are an important emerging technology that can find use in these and other areas of applications.This paper examines some of the research issues that have emerged as markets are placed into a corporate setting. As a result, this paper analyzes some strengths and limitations of using internal prediction markets in corporate settings. I also examine the sources of information that get embedded in those markets, including the role of management using the market. In addition, I investigate multiple incentive approaches used in corporate prediction markets, and apparent biases that have been noticed in corporate prediction markets. Finally, this paper also analyzes some of the opportunities to use markets as an approach to investigate other issues, e.g., in accounting and finance.     

Multiple Trigger CoCos: Contingent Debt Without Death Spiral Risk

This paper starts with the observation that the average issue size during 2012 of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds was more than $1 bn. Typically a CoCo is converted into shares when a pre‐defined capital ratio such as the core tier 1 ratio (CT1) drops below a minimum level. In some other cases, the contingent convertibles investors will suffer from a pre‐defined haircut instead of a conversion into shares. Investors could dynamically hedge the equity exposure embedded within a contingent convertible by taking an offsetting short position in the underlying shares. This dynamic hedging can in some circumstances have a negative impact on the share price of the bank. It could indeed lead to a spiral of falling share prices. This so‐called death spiral effect can only be avoided if the size of the contingent convertible is moderate compared to the amount of outstanding public traded shares. In this contribution we advocate the use of contingent debt where there is more than one conversion trigger. Banks should move away from one large single CoCo issue towards issues with multiple accounting triggers spread across an extended range. This will alleviate the death spiral risk. The expected dynamic behavior of a CoCo bond has been modeled using a credit derivates approach. From these models we then quantify the equity sensitivity and the negative gamma resulting from the design of a contingent convertible and illustrate the possible pitfalls of a death spiral on the share price.     

The Impact of Firm Location on Equity Issuance

In this paper, I use location as a proxy for the ability of a firm to issue equity. Numerous studies indicate that investors are better able to obtain information on nearby companies. I posit that costs in generating information will be higher for rural firms with few investors in their proximity, than for urban firms with many nearby investors. As predicted, I find that rural firms are less likely to conduct seasoned equity offerings than firms located in urban areas. Furthermore, I find that when a rural firm issues equity, it uses a lower-quality underwriter than otherwise similar urban firms.     

On a Class of Renewal Risk Processes

Abstract

In this paper I show how methods that have been applied to derive results for the classical risk process can be adapted to derive results for a class of risk processes in which claims occur as a renewal process. In particular, claims occur as an Erlang process. I consider the problem of finding the survival probability for such risk processes and then derive expressions for the probability and severity of ruin and for the probability of absorption by an upper barrier. Finally, I apply these results to consider the problem of finding the distribution of the maximum deficit during the period from ruin to recovery to surplus level 0.     

我国《会计法》的法理视角思考

我国《会计法》的修改与完善, 既应考虑会计专业问题也应加强对相关法律问题特别是法理方面问题的研究。《会计法》的地位决定了其应发挥上承宪法下统其他会计法律规范的作用, 它规范的内容应是社会属性层次而非技术操作层次; 《会计法》的法律规范应符合国家意志性、概括性和可预测性的法理特征, 且须从法律的角度建立自己的概念体系; 在相关法律协调过程中, 会计界和法律界应通力合作, 以便《会计法》和其他法规能各司其职; 《会计法》的运行过程应当符合法理原理的基本要求。     

Call options and the risk of underlying securities

Merton (1973) in his seminal article ‘Theory of Rational Option Pricing’ showed that the rationally determined price of a call option is a non-decreasing function of the ‘riskness’ of its associated common stock. In deriving his results, Merton made restrictive assumptions about the way the market prices payoff distributions, and used the Rothschild-Stiglitz (1970) measure to compare the riskiness of securities. I show by means of an example that the Merton result will not in general be true. I then derive a sufficient condition for the option on one stock to have higher market value than the option on another stock, when both the stocks have the same price, and explain why the Merton result is valid in the Black-Scholes environment.