The Theory of Optimal Stochastic Control as Applied to Insurance Underwriting Cycles

We use the theories of optimal stochastic control and engineering process control to analyze the well-known phenomenon of insurance underwriting cycles in continuous time. We show in a continuous time framework that underwriting cycles can be explained with a model where premiums are set rationally, but where there are various reporting and regulatory lags. We find that the observed cycle length depends on the length of these underlying lags. Our result can be seen as consistent with previous empirical work showing underwriting cycles varying across countries and lines of insurance. In the event that no lags exist, our result is also consistent with more recent literature suggesting that insurance cycles may not exist.     

Impact of Underwriting Cycles on the Solvency of an Insurance Company

Abstract

This paper studies the solvency of an insurance firm in the presence of underwriting cycles. A small or medium-size insurance company with a price-taker position in the market is considered. Its premium income is assumed to obey an autoregressive process with cycles. Specifically, the premium income for a specific calendar year is influenced by the market experience for the last couple years. Under this classical AR(2) dynamics governing the premium income, an explicit expression for the ultimate ruin probability is derived, using a martingale approach, in the lighttailed claims case. Furthermore, the logarithmic asymptotic behavior of the ultimate ruin probability as well as the typical path to ruin are investigated. Then a comparison is made with the classical case where the same company operates on a market without such cycles. Asymptotically, the presence of market cycles is shown to increase the risk for the company. Numerical illustrations are performed on Canadian motor insurance market data and support the theoretical analysis.     

我国财产保险市场承保效益影响因素分析

近年来,我国产险市场业务呈现快速增长态势,竞争主体迅速增多,市场集中度不断下降,竞争越来越激烈.市场不规范现象经常出现,费率下降,各家保险企业的承保效益出现普遍亏损现象,直接影响了行业的可持续发展和削弱了我国产险企业的市场竞争力.基于此,本文以我国产险市场上10家产险企业为样本,以2004至2008年的数据进行面板回归...     

非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析

本文基于我国财险业2009～2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度.研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险.但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上...     

财产保险公司对地震保险的承保管控和风险控制分析

本文通过收集全球地震灾害发生的数据,归纳出全球地震的变化趋势和规律。在此基础上概述了我国地震活动规律和地震带分布特征,并引用稳定分布函数分析了地震损失具有右偏、厚尾、长尾特性,解释了我国地震保险供需矛盾的原因。最后描述了我国财产保险公司对地震风险的控制思路,提出了由政府干预解决市场失灵问题的具体建议。     

Determinants of Underwriting Fees by New Entrant Banks: Evidence from the Japanese IPO Underwriting Market

This research investigates how banks expand market share after entering the underwriting market by examining the relation between commercial bank equity investments and underwriting fees. First, we find that not only bank underwriters with private information about issuers but also those without private information discount their fees, especially for smaller and riskier firms. This result is robust when using multiple firm‐bank relationship measures or when changing the investing stage. This is consistent with the strategic discount view that predicts that bank underwriters discount fees to expand bank market shares in underwriting markets.     

Time Series Data Mining with an Application to the Measurement of Underwriting Cycles

Underwriting cycles are believed to pose a risk management challenge to property-casualty insurers. The classical statistical methods that are used to model these cycles and to estimate their length assume linearity and give inconclusive results. Instead, we propose to use novel time series data Mining algorithms to detect and estimate periodicity on U.S. property-casualty insurance markets. These algorithms are in increasing use in data science and are applied to Big Data. We describe several such algorithms and focus on two periodicity detection schemes. Estimates of cycle periods on industry-wide loss ratios, for all lines combined and for four specific lines, are provided. One of the methods appears to be robust to trends and to outliers.     

核保期间寿险合同成立问题探讨

为解决核保期间投保人与保险人间的合同关系及保险责任承担问题,我国法院逐渐形成了两种不同的见解:一是"拟制同意承保模式",二是"可保型模式"。然而,这两种模式均无法合理地解决保险人之核保权与保险消费者合理期待与诉求的平衡问题。域外的实践表明,无条件临时保险跳出了核保期间寿险合同成立争论的窠臼,其在利益平衡的视野下较好地解决了核保期间保险当事人间的合同关系及风险分担问题,这对我国的保险立法或司法实践具有借鉴意义。     

Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Role of Labor Market Frictions

Emerging economies are characterized by higher variability of consumption and real wages relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A small open economy model with search‐matching frictions and countercyclical interest rate shocks can account for these regularities. Search‐matching frictions affect permanent income, and increase future employment uncertainty, heightening workers' incentives to save and generating a greater response of consumption and the current account. The greater consumption response feeds into larger fluctuations in workers' willingness to work, while interest rate shocks lead to variations in firms' willingness to hire; both of these outcomes contribute to highly variable wages.     

立法缺陷、承保约束与中国环境污染责任保险的制度供给

高额的排污收益和极低的违法成本制约了企业对环境污染责任保险的需求,环境污染的巨灾性、潜伏性和法律适用的不确定性抑制了保险公司的承保能力,导致中国环境污染责任保险发展乏力。建议加大对环境污染事故的处罚和赔偿力度,将环境质量纳入地方官员的考核体系并提高其权重,向排污企业收取排污费成立环境损害赔偿基金,通过发行环境巨灾债券来扩大承保能力。     

The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market

The excess return in the stock market is higher under Democratic than Republican presidencies: 9 percent for the value‐weighted and 16 percent for the equal‐weighted portfolio. The difference comes from higher real stock returns and lower real interest rates, is statistically significant, and is robust in subsamples. The difference in returns is not explained by business‐cycle variables related to expected returns, and is not concentrated around election dates. There is no difference in the riskiness of the stock market across presidencies that could justify a risk premium. The difference in returns through the political cycle is therefore a puzzle.     

Do Property‐Casualty Insurance Underwriting Margins Have Unit Roots?

A growing literature analyzes determinants of insurance prices using time series data on insurer underwriting margins. If the variables analyzed are stationary, conventional regression models may be appropriately used to test hypotheses. Based on pretests for a unit root, several studies have instead used co‐integration analysis to analyze the long‐run relationship between purportedly nonstationary underwriting margins and macroeconomic variables. We apply a battery of unit root tests to investigate whether underwriting margins are stationary under different assumptions concerning deterministic components in the data generating process (DGP). When linear and/or quadratic trends are included in the assumed DGPs, the tests reject the null hypothesis of a unit root for loss ratios, expense ratios, combined ratios, and economic loss ratios from 1953 through 1998 for many of the individual lines examined and for all lines combined. Consistent with prior work on whether macroeconomic variables have unit roots, a simulation of test power for underwriting margins during the sample period demonstrates that nonrejections of the null hypothesis of a unit root could easily reflect low power. The overall findings suggest that conventional regression methods can be used appropriately to analyze underwriting margins after controlling for deterministic influences and transforming any nonstationary regressors.     

保险承保风险引致系统性风险的空间复杂网络分析

基于2008-2019年中国各省份财险和寿险月度经营数据,使用TENET风险模型构建了省份间承保风险的空间溢出网络,量化了各省份承保风险可能导致的系统性风险水平,回归分析了产生影响的各种因素.结果表明,各省份承保风险空间关联性相对较低,省份间传染极低,不太可能引发系统性风险.各省份蕴含的系统性风险水平存在显著差异,具有从东部向西部递减的特征.样本期内,财险业承保风险的空间溢出总量基本稳定,寿险业经历了先上升后下降的过程.各省份风险状况及保险资金运用是导致差异的关键因素,监管可据此施策.     

河南省保险市场的发展与监管

近年来，河南省保险业发展较快，但与其经济发展相比存在一定差距。主要原因是：有效竞争不足、监管不足和保险主体不足。完善河南保险监管的思路是：调整思路，转变观念；完善法规，构建合理的保险监管框架；规范保险保障基金，建立有效的市场退出机制等。     

The Competitive Impact of Commercial Bank Underwriting on the Market for Municipal Revenue Bonds

This paper examines the impact of commercial bank entry in the market for municipal revenue bonds. We show that issues underwritten by commercial banks have lower underwriter spreads but not lower yields relative to issues underwritten by nonbank investment firms. In particular, this is more significant for non-investment-grade bonds underwritten by commercial banks. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that bank entry has resulted in increased competition in the municipal revenue bond market and that the lower yields observed for bank-underwritten commercial bonds may be due to banks having private information. Overall, our results suggest that policy changes leading to the relaxation of restrictive provisions concerning bank underwriting of municipal revenue bonds have had beneficial effects.     

Global Cities and Local Housing Market Cycles

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - In this paper, we consider the dynamic features of house price in metropolises that are characterised by a high degree of internationalisation....     

The Hungarian Insurance Market: Economic Transition in the Insurance Sector

This article analyzes Hungary's insurance sector as an important part of the country's economic transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. It details the historic economic development of the Hungarian insurance market from a state monopoly to a competitive insurance market where foreign-owned insurance companies have a dominant market share.     

强制保险对机动车险市场的影响

即将实施的《中华人民共和国道路交通安全法》是我国第一部道路交通安全法律,保监会据此制定了《机动车第三者责任强制保险条例》,详细规定了机动车辆第三者强制保险的具体内容,将对商业保险公司的机动车辆产生重大影响。对此,各保险公司应加强制定费率规章,增设绝对免赔额制度和明确对机动车辆超载问题的处理标准。