Resource Use under Climate Stabilization: Can Nuclear Power Provide Clean Energy?

The long‐term goal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the stabilization of carbon concentration in the atmosphere. In this paper, we impose a carbon target concentration on a partial equilibrium model of the global energy sector. Specifically, we ask whether nuclear power can provide carbon‐free energy as fossil fuel resources become costly due to scarcity and externality costs. We find that nuclear power can reduce the cost of generating clean energy significantly and relatively quickly. However, beyond a few decades the role of nuclear power may be considerably reduced as uranium becomes scarce and renewables become economical. The cost of carbon when nuclear power supplies a significant share of energy is much lower than that of other studies. A policy implication is that current political and regulatory impediments to the expansion of nuclear generation may prove to be costly if large volumes of clean energy need to be supplied over a relatively short period of time.     

核电建设项目费用控制影响因素分析——基于ISM-Fuzzy AHP模型

通过识别核电建设项目费用控制的主要影响因素,采用结构解释模型方法分析各因素的相互影响关系,按影响因素的驱动力和依赖性对其进行排序,最终建立相应的解释结构模型,并在此基础上运用Fuzzy-AHP方法对各层影响因素进行判断比较、确定其权重值。结果表明:核电建设项目的决策阶段是费用控制的关键环节;建设目标、建设规模和投资分析水平是最重要的影响因素,在核电建设过程中应对其重点控制。     

中国能源可持续发展研究--核电产业的机遇

I.IntroductionTo build the well-off society in an all-round way and attainthe grand goal that GDP quadruples by2020according towhat the16th National Congress of Communist Party of Chinaput forward,the economic growth rate of our country shouldkeep the level of7.2%every year.Economic developmenthas offered the wide development space for power industry,and has offered the opportunity for developing nuclear powerand relevant industries too.With the increasing of energy crisis,and environmenta…     

Privatization and Performance in Eastern Europe: Alternative Scenarios

The paper focuses on the possible outcomes of privatization and considers how different scenarios of privatization lead to varied macroeconomic performance. Alternative scenarios involve changes in efficiency, taxation, wages, income distribution and interactions with the world economy. The consequences of pursuing different scenarios of privatization are simulated using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Illustrative simulations with the model are carried out for a representative economy, intended to depict a country at the outset of transition. The simulation results suggest that privatization can exert a favourable or adverse impact on the whole economy, depending on the way in which the performance of the newly privatized sector changes. The simulation analysis for Poland shows that some developments accompanying privatization processes might have contributed to recession and budget deficit.     

Ethical dilemma scenarios and emerging technologies

This paper posits that ethical dilemma scenarios are a useful instrument to provoke policy‐makers and other stakeholders, to including industry, in considering the privacy, ethical, social and other implications of new and emerging technologies. It describes a methodology for constructing and deconstructing such scenarios and provides four such scenarios in an orthogonal relationship with each other. The paper describes some different, but closely related scenario construction–deconstruction methodologies, which formed the basis for the methodology adopted in the European Commission-funded PRESCIENT project. The paper makes the point that in ethical dilemma scenarios, it is not immediately apparent what choices policy‐makers should select. Hence, there is a need for undertaking a privacy and ethical impact assessment and engaging stakeholders in the process to identify and discuss the issues raised in the scenarios.     

DETERRENCE: CREDIBILITY AND PROPORTIONALITY

This paper extends the analysis of deterrence to examine terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and rogue nations. Such situations are characterized by differential pre-emptive and response capacity, in contrast to the traditional deterrence literature on nuclear superpowers, where such factors are absent. We focus on the credibility of deterrence responses to pre-emption and show that credible (subgame-perfect) responses are rarely proportional. The analysis is also extended to asymmetric deterrence scenarios whereby credibility and proportionality depend on the potential aggressor's access to conflict technology and the responder's preferences for indirect conflict vs. the status quo.     

A long-run cost allocation problem in the political economy of electric utility power pools

Summary and Conclusions Discussants of the electric power industry point to three principal reasons for corporately unaffiliated electric utility companies to establish formal interorganizational relations: optimal short-run dispatching of production facilities, the scale economies (more precisely, the subadditivity) of long-run costs, and the advantage of pooling the risk of equipment failure. This paper has analyzed the organizational properties of power pools established to realize the advantages of subadditive long-run costs. A formal organizational model of a power pool was presented, recognizing the economic and normative structure of a pool. The normative structure chosen was the subsidy freedom equity concept familiar in the literature on natural monopoly and in game theory. The principal result of the paper is the construction of a subsidy-free cost allocation rule for the deterministic multiple-technology long-run system planning problem.The applicability of this result depends on the organization of the power pool as an entity capable of contracting for the power needed by the members. Conspicuously in the model used here, the optimal poolwide cost is allocated but ownership of the generating plants is not.In power ppols of independently owned utilities (IOUs), capacity planning may be centralized but, with the exception of joint ventures in individual generating plants, ownership is maintained at the level of the member firms. IOU power pools allocate separately the fixed and variable costs of the system. Pool members often take turns in building new plants for the pool, thereby indirectly allocating system capacity costs. Having identifiable ownership in the generating plants, the members can allocate the energy costs of the system in a subsidy-free manner using the short-run marginal cost of energy established by central dispatching or energy brokering (Herriot 1985). But that is an approach to short-run energy charges which is very differet from the energy charge in the peaker rule studied here, and it may result in an allocation of total costs that is not subsidy-free.There are partnership among rural electric distribution cooperatives, called generation and transmission (G&T) co-ops, which do share costs without allocating ownership interests. G&T co-ops build generating plants or secure power contracts from IOUs sufficient to meet their members' requirements at an agreed level of reliability. Ownership of the plants, and liability for the contracts, is not disaggregated. Yet in most cases the G&T co-op does not sell power to non-members, so all costs must be allocated among the member firms.The ownership structure presumed here could also obtain under the scenarios for electric power deregulation envisioned by Joskow and Schmalensee (1983). If the distribution segment is disaggregated from generation and transmission, then locally franchised distribution firms mist face in common the subadditive long-run cost function discussed in the second section. The regional bulk power market would therefore have the structure of a natural monopsony, so the distribution firms would have an incentive to pool their forecast loads and collectively negotiate long-term power contracts with the independent generating firms. Ownership of generation would rest with the generation firms, but the cost of the regionally optimal portfolio of power contracts would have to be allocated among the pooled distribution firmsThe deterministic system planning model used here is somewhat simplistic, certainly as must any model to be admit a closed-form solution in a contexts where the real capacity planning problems are solved using very large scale linear programs and simulation. However, the cost allocation rule derived for this model may be useful guidepost for the development of practical cost-sharing rules in power pools. An important implication of the peaker rule (4) is the equity of not attempting to allocate separately the fixed and variable costs of a system. Though adjustments must be made to the peaker rule to account fully for the uncertainties, indivisibilities, unreliabilities, and nonhomogeneities faced by system planners, as well as for the growth of future loads and the development of new generation technologies, this cost-allocation rule appears to be helpful as a starting point in power pool rate design.     

Privatization of Water-Resource Development

This paper analyzes the inefficiencies from market power and return-flow externalities in private construction of a water project. The model pays special attention to increasing groundwater pumping costs, project set-up costs, limited project capacity, and return flow to the aquifer. For a given capacity, the return-flow externality causes project owners to construct the project too late when the price of groundwater is too high because the external benefit of return-flow to the aquifer is not captured. Market power exacerbates these effects since the project owner delays construction to accelerate groundwater overdraft. The return-flow externality and market power also decrease installed capacity and increase overdraft from the aquifer. Applying the model to the construction of the Central Arizona Project (CAP) for a given capacity, the estimated deadweight loss from hypothetical private construction of the project ($0.853 billion) is substantially less than the literature’s estimate of deadweight loss from actual construction by the Bureau of Reclamation ($2.603 billion). However, under the federal subsidies and insecure property rights that accompanied the CAP, private construction results in a larger estimated efficiency loss ($6.126 billion).     

SWEDEN AFTER NUCLEAR POWER

The social costs of providing energy are varied and difficult to compare. Sweden's recent energy policy is notable for its broad-based initiatives to internalize those social costs of energy that are difficult to measure in strictly monetary terms. This article focuses on one such initiative– the Swedish law to phase out nuclear power by the year 2010–and its relationship to other national goals: The hydroelectric system is not to expand, carbon dioxide emissions are to remain at current levels or decline, and oil-import dependence is to be minimized. In addition to this challenge, between now and 2010 the Swedish economy is expected to maintain an average 1.9 percent real annual growth rate and to remain competitive industrially. Scenarios of future electricity demand and the accompanying supply mix illustrate the spectrum of costs – internal and external–from which Sweden can choose in implementing the phase-out plan and in determining whether one can identify paths that simultaneously reconcile Sweden's potentially conflicting policy goals. The results show that the direct economic costs of high-efficiency/low-externality scenarios are less than those of low-efficiency/high-externality scenarios. Traditional societal economics does not stand as a barrier to energy futures that are consistent with Sweden's desire to further reduce the external societal costs of energy. The results are also significant since they demonstrate that strategies to reduce global climate change need not rely on nuclear power.     

导向型环境政策对企业技术选择及其生产率的影响--来自中国发电行业的经验证据

文章将2005年《可再生能源法》的颁布作为一次自然实验,使用“倍差法”估计了可再生能源政策对清洁发电技术带来的影响,并考察了该政策是否有利于发电行业的清洁技术偏向。研究发现：（1）《可再生能源法》及相关政策激励了清洁发电技术的使用及生产率的提升,相对于污染发电企业,2005年之后清洁发电企业的发电量与 T F P平均上升了8％和10％;（2）在时间趋势上,政策效应存在逐渐增强的趋势;（3）我们使用“匹配差分法”比较了2005年之后有补贴的企业与没有补贴企业 T F P的差异,比较结果发现有补贴的企业 T F P上升得更快,并且这些企业 R＆D投入也更多。因此认为可再生能源政策促进了发电行业的清洁技术偏向。文章的结论不仅对判断公共政策在改变环境技术偏向中所起的作用具有一定的启发意义,而且能够为相应的环境政策出台提供理论依据。     

Long-term growth scenarios for Poland to 2025

One of the major long-run problems facing the economies in transition is whether their productive potential will achieve the average per capita levels typical of the EU member countries in the foreseeable future. If so, what possible measures should be taken to reach this end? This issue applies in particular to Poland with a GDP per capita being roughly a half of what it is in Greece or Portugal. An attempt to give an answer to these questions is given in the paper by means of simulations based on the W8-D model for the Polish economy. The model served as a tool to elaborate a long-term forecast and run alternative policy scenarios to cover realistic boundaries of the future economic development of Poland up to the year 2025.     

SOLAR POWER

This paper describes categories of solar technologies and identijies those that are economic. It compares the private costs of power from solar, wind, nuclear, coal, oil, and gas generators. In the southern United States, the private costs of building and generating electricity from new solar and wind power plants are less than the private cost of electricity from a new nuclear power plant. Solar power is more valuable than nuclear power since all solar power is available during peak and mid-peak periods. Half of the power from nuclear generators is off-peak power and therefore is less valuable. Reliability is important in determining the value of wind and nuclear power. Damage from air pollution, when factored into the cost of power from fossil fuels, alters the cost comparison in favor of solar and wind power. Some policies are more effective at encouraging alternative energy technologies that pollute less and improve national security.     

Pricing power supplied on an interruptible basis

This paper deals with Pareto-optimal pricing of an electric utility whose demand is subject to random fluctuations. Its purpose is to extend previous results obtained by Boiteux and Drèze in two directions. First, the maximum power contracted by subscribers is charged instead of the variance of individual consumptions, which makes the model closer to most existing rate structures. Second, subscribers are allowed to choose among several types of supply differentiated by the probability with which their delivery is guaranteed. Most electricity companies are indeed known to supply power on an interruptible basis. In return for a reduction in their electricity bills, some customers give the company the right to cut off part of their supply when demand rises close to generating capacity.     

Is inflation targeting feasible in Poland?

In this paper we analyze whether inflation targeting is feasible in Poland. There are at least three prerequisites for successful inflation targeting: 1) central bank independence, 2) a high degree of central bank accountability, transparency, and communication to the public, and 3) a predictable and stable relationship between inflation and the instruments of monetary policy. While the first two prerequisites are relatively easy to analyze, the third criterion requires formal statistical analysis, which we undertake in this paper. The first two prerequisites for targeting are found to be met in Poland, and the empirical analysis shows some evidence of significant relationships between inflation and monetary instruments in Poland. Hence inflation targeting appears feasible in Poland.     

生态文明建设下风、光发电生态效益模拟与评估——以甘肃省为例

在我国生态文明建设日益受到重视的背景下,文章对风、光发电的生态影响进行了整体、全面的研究。首先,构建了分析风电和光伏发电对生态系统影响的系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型,并提出一种改进的耦合协调度模型;然后,以甘肃省为例进行SD情景模拟;最后,评估了多政策情景下甘肃省生态系统耦合协调度。结果表明,风电技改增效和光伏发电技改增效更有利于整个生态系统的发展。通过理论分析论证了甘肃省现行风、光发电政策的科学性,并为进一步发展风、光发电从而促进生态文明建设提出建议。     

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.     

Long-range scenario construction for technology assessment

Long-range scenario construction is an integral part of a technology assessment. Alternative future scenarios provide the socioeconomic context in which technological systems can be forecast and assessed. Therefore, scenarios must be constructed in order to meet the information needs of all other portions of the study. One scenario construction approach, designed to meet this need, consists of the following elements: emphasis on range and consistency, specifically with respect to the technology assessed, combination of judgment and discipline, gradual divergence, and top-down variable disaggregation. As illustrated in an application to aviation communications technology assessment, this approach provides relevant information to the other portions of the study. Thus the scenarios provide the backdrop upon which the remainder of the study rests.     

Electricity sector reform in developing countries: an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization,competition and regulation

Electricity sectors in both developed and developing countries have been subject to restructuring to introduce private capital and increase competition. Although the effects of such reforms in a number of the developed economies are now well documented, the experience of developing countries is much less well researched. This paper provides an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization, competition and regulation on the performance of the electricity generation industry using panel data for 36 developing and transitional countries, over the period 1985–2003. The study identifies the impact of these reforms on generating capacity, electricity generated, labor productivity in the generating sector and capacity utilization. The main conclusions are that on their own privatization and regulation (PR) do not lead to obvious gains in economic performance, though there are some positive interaction effects. By contrast, introducing competition does seem to be effective in stimulating performance improvements.      

Supply and demand factors in the output decline in East and Central Europe

What are the relative weights of supply and demand factors in generating the output declines observed in Poland during its transition to the market? And how important are the factors that fit under the rubric of “supply and demand” in comparison to other potential reasons for the output decline, especially adjustment away from the Soviet-style economic system? The initial decline seems to have been due to a combination of aggregate demand shocks associated with the stabilization, declines in inventory investment due to the transition from a shortage economy, and especially shifts in demand away from socialized sector industry towards other sectors of the economy. Growth has come primarily from expansion in new sectors, such as services and residential construction, and in new enterprises. The applicability of one-good macroeconomics is limited in understanding either the output decline or the subsequent growth in Poland.     

清洁发展机制及其对我国可再生能源发电的启示

清洁发展机制（CDM）是近几年来国际社会的热门话题，本文从走循环经济道路和建立环境友好型社会出发，结合清洁发展机制，从各方面分析了我国可再生能源发电的现状和CDM项目的市场潜力及优势。进而根据目前我国CDM项目的开发情况分别从微观和宏观两个层面提出了一些建议，如选择合适的融资方式、强化政策体系的建设与创新、提高国际谈判能力和建立CDM联系机制等。