共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Mamoru Kaneko 《Economic Theory》2002,19(1):7-62
Summary. This paper is written as an introduction to epistemic logics and their game theoretic applications. It starts with both semantics
and syntax of classical logic, and goes to the Hilbert-style proof-theory and Kripke-style model theory of epistemic logics.
In these theories, we discuss individual decision making in some simple game examples. In particular, we will discuss the
distinction between beliefs and knowledge, and how false beliefs play roles in game theoretic decision making. Finally, we
discuss extensions of epistemic logics to incorporate common knowledge. In the extension, we discuss also false beliefs on
common knowledge.
Received: July 1, 2000; revised version: April 19, 2001 相似文献
2.
Summary. In a game with rational expectations, individuals simultaneously refine their information with the information revealed by
the strategies of other individuals. At a Nash equilibrium of a game with rational expectations, the information of individuals
is essentially symmetric: the same profile of strategies is also an equilibrium of a game with symmetric information; and
strategies are common knowledge. If each player has a veto act, which yields a minimum payoff that no other profile of strategies
attains, then the veto profile is the only Nash equilibrium, and it is is an equilibrium with rational expectations and essentially
symmetric information; which accounts for the impossibility of speculation.
Received: June 20, 2001; revised version: January 9, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" We wish to thank Pierpaolo Battigalli, Fran?oise Forges, Franco Donzelli, Leonidas Koutsougeras, Aldo Rustichini, Rajiv
Vohra and Nicholas Yannelis for their comments.
Correspondence to: H. Polemarchakis 相似文献
3.
Summary. Individual decision making is based on predictions about other players' choices as well as on valuations of reactions to
predictions. In this sense, a player has a prediction-decision criterion for decision making. We develop a theory of prediction-decision
criteria, which enables us to capture new phenomena on individual decision making in games. The decision making situation
is described in the epistemic logic GL of shallow depths. There, each player considers his and other players' decision making down to some shallow depths. It is
a point of our theory to investigate inferential complexities of interpersonal introspections. In particular, we can discuss a minimal epistemic inferential structure for prediction-decision making. We will find parallel structures in decision making and prediction
making, which is called an inner parallelism. The climax of the paper is the consideration of inner parallelisms of prediction-decision making.
Received: August 31, 2000; revised version: April 9, 2001 相似文献
4.
Nash equilibrium without mutual knowledge of rationality 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Kin Chung Lo 《Economic Theory》1999,14(3):621-633
Summary. In a Nash equilibrium, players' rationality is mutual knowledge. However, both intuition and experimental evidence suggest
that players do not know for sure the rationality of opponents. This paper proposes a new equilibrium concept, cautious equilibrium, that generalizes Nash equilibrium in terms of preferences in two person strategic games. In a cautious equilibrium, players
do not necessarily know the rationality of opponents, but they view rationality as infinitely more likely than irrationality.
For suitable models of preference, cautious equilibrium predicts that a player might take a “cautious” strategy that is not
a best response in any Nash equilibrium.
Received: January 28, 1998; revised version October 2, 1998 相似文献
5.
Klaus Nehring 《Economic Theory》2001,18(3):535-553
Summary. While the meaningfulness of the common prior assumption (CPA) under incomplete information has been established recently
by various authors, its epistemic rationale has not yet been adequately clarified. To do so, we provide a characterization
of the CPA in terms of a new condition called “Mutual Calibration”, and argue that it constitutes a more transparent and more
primitive formalization of the Harsanyi Doctrine than the existing characterizations. Our analysis unifies the understanding
of the CPA under incomplete information and clarifies the role of higher-order expectations and of the difference between
situations with only two and those with at least three agents. In the concluding section, the analysis is applied to the problem
of defining Bayesian consistency of the intertemporal beliefs of a single-agent with imperfect memory. The CPA yields a notion
of “Bayesian updating without a prior”.
Received: March 24, 2000; revised version: April 27, 2000 相似文献
6.
Philip Bond 《Economic Theory》2003,22(2):375-394
Summary. The paper seeks to characterize what information is always available for contracting, independent of the form of the contract
and the probabilities of different states of nature. The paper denotes such information as contractible. It is established that it is possible to speak uniquely of maximal contractible information. Several characterizations are exhibited. In particular, it is shown that if either (a) punishments are bounded everywhere,
or (b) deviations from truth-telling are either always or never detected, then maximum contractible information coincides
with where is the information partition of agent j. An argument is given for why (b) may be expected to hold.
Received: August 7, 2000; revised version: December 21, 2001
RID="*"
ID="*" I thank Michael Chwe, Douglas Diamond, Lars Stole, Robert Townsend, Nicholas Yannelis and an anonymous referee for
helpful comments. 相似文献
7.
Matthew J. Ryan 《Economic Theory》2002,20(1):47-65
Summary. This paper introduces the concept of firm belief, which is proposed as a new epistemic model for a wide class of preferences. In particular, firm beliefs are shown to have
the following desirable properties: (i) they are derived from preferences according to a plausible rule of epistemic inference;
(ii) they satisfy standard logical properties; and (iii) tractable representations of firm belief are available for all (suitably
continuous) biseparable preferences [13, 14], including the Choquet expected utility [30] and maxmin expected utility [16]
classes. We also use firm belief to construct a generalization of Nash equilibrium for (two-player) normal form games.
Received: December 14, 1999; revised version: February 26, 2001 相似文献
8.
Summary. The first-order approach is a technical shortcut widely used in agency problems. The best known set of sufficient conditions
for its validity are due to Mirrlees and Rogerson and require that the distribution function is convex in effort and has a
likelihood ratio increasing in output. Only one nontrivial example was so far known to satisfy both properties. This note
provides two rich families of examples displaying both properties.
Received: December 4, 2000; revised version: December 10, 2001 相似文献
9.
Summary. When economic agents have diverse private information on the fundamentals of the economy, prices may serve as a poor aggregator of this private information. We examine the information value of prices in a monopolistic competition setting that has become standard in the New Keynesian macroeconomics literature. We show that public information has a disproportionate effect on agents’ decisions, crowds out private information, and thereby has the potential to degrade the information value of prices. This effect is strongest in an economy with keen price competition. Monetary policy must rely on less informative signals of the underlying cost conditions.Received: 6 November 2003, Revised: 19 November 2004 JEL Classification Numbers:
E31, E32, E58.This paper supersedes the discussion in the first half of our longer paper that circulated under the title “Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models”. We thank Andy Filardo, Marvin Goodfriend, Nobu Kiyotaki, John Moore, Stephen Morris and Lars Svensson for advice and comments at various stages of the project, and to Herakles Polemarchakis, Roko Aliprantis and an anonymous referee for their helpful comments and guidance. The views are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the BIS. The second author acknowledges support from the U.K. ESRC under grant RES 000220450. Correspondence to: H.S. Shin 相似文献
10.
Utility and entropy 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Juan C. Candeal Juan R. De Miguel Esteban Induráin Ghanshyam B. Mehta 《Economic Theory》2001,17(1):233-238
Summary. In this paper we study an astonishing similarity between the utility representation problem in economics and the entropy
representation problem in thermodynamics.
Received: May 17, 1999; revised version: October 16, 2000 相似文献
11.
Oliver Schulte 《Economic Theory》2002,19(1):105-144
Summary. A rational agent changes her beliefs in response to new information; a widely held idea is that such belief changes should
be minimal. This paper is an overview of the theory of minimal belief revision. I employ a decision-theoretic framework to
compare various principles for minimal belief revision. The main topics covered include the AGM postulates for belief revision, belief contraction, Grove's representation theorem, axioms for conditionals, and the connections
between minimal belief change and questions in formal logic. I characterize under what conditions belief revision functions
are consistent with the Levi Identity, and under what conditions belief contraction functions are consistent with the Harper
Identity.
Received: August 20, 2000; revised version: March 19, 2001 相似文献
12.
Wilfredo Leiva Maldonado 《Economic Theory》1999,14(2):473-478
Summary. In this paper I give a method for finding long-run-average policies in the undiscounted economic growth problem using approximations
by finite horizons. Required hypothesis is the strong interiority of T-horizon solutions.
Received: March 25, 1996; revised version: July 29, 1997 相似文献
13.
Tito Pietra 《Economic Theory》2001,18(3):649-659
Summary. I consider the set of equilibria of two-period economies with S extrinsic states of nature in the second period and I assets
with linearly independent nominal payoffs. Asset prices are variable. If the number of agents is greater than (S-I), the payoff
matrix is in general position and S 2I, the set of equilibrium allocations generically (in utility function space) contains a smooth manifold of dimension (S-1).
Moreover, the map from states o
f nature to equilibrium allocations (restricted to this manifold) is one-to-one at each equilibrium.
Received: February 23, 1998; revised version: June 1, 2000 相似文献
14.
A consistency condition (action-consistency) on the interim beliefs of players in a game is introduced. Action-consistency is weaker than common priors and, unlike common priors, is characterized by a “no-bets” condition on verifiable events. Using action-consistency, we provide epistemic conditions to Nash and correlated equilibria weakening the common knowledge restrictions in Aumann and Brandenburger [Aumann, R., Brandenburger, A., 1995. Epistemic conditions for Nash equilibrium. Econometrica 63, 1161–1180] and Aumann [Aumann, R., 1987. Correlated equilibrium as an expression of Bayesian rationality. Econometrica 55, 1–18]. 相似文献
15.
Patrick Bajari 《Economic Theory》2001,18(1):187-205
Summary. Collusion is a serious problem in many procurement auctions. In this research, I study a model of first price sealed bid
procurement auctions with asymmetric bidders. I demonstrate that the equilibrium to the model is unique and describe three
algorithms that can be used to compute the inverse equilibrium bid functions. I then use the computational algorithms to compare
competitive and collusive bidding. The algorithms are useful for structural estimation of auction models and for assessing
the damages from bid-rigging.
Received: January 14, 2000; revised version: February 28, 2001 相似文献
16.
Summary. This note provides an alternative proof for the equivalence of decreasing absolute prudence (DAP) in the expected utility
framework and in a two-parametric approach where utility is a function of the mean and the standard deviation. In addition,
we elucidate that the equivalence of DAP and the concavity of utility as a function of mean and variance, which was shown
to hold for normally distributed stochastics in Lajeri and Nielsen [4], cannot be generalized.
Received: November 27, 2000; revised version: November 26, 2001
Correspondence to: T. Eichner 相似文献
17.
Parametric characterizations of risk aversion and prudence 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Summary. Our first main result says that whether one decision maker is more risk averse than another can be determined from their
attitudes toward a given two-parameter family of risks. When all risks belong to this family, risk aversion can be compared
even when initial wealth is random. Our second main result solves a long-standing problem in mean-variance analysis: what
is the interpretation of the concavity of utility as a function of mean and variance? We show that in the case of normal distributions,
this utility function is concave if and only if the agent has decreasing prudence.
Received: July 29, 1996; revised: October 2, 1998 相似文献
18.
Youngse Kim 《Economic Theory》1999,13(2):365-375
Summary. The paper studies the evolution of cooperation when satisficing players repeatedly play a symmetric two-by-two game of common
interest. We show that if initial aspiration levels are sufficiently close to the efficient payoff and aspiration adjusts
at a sufficiently slow speed then the unique long run state will be the efficient outcome. In the special case of coordination
games, the more tension there is between payoff dominance and risk dominance, the longer it takes for the system to lock into
the payoff dominant outcome.
Received: June 23, 1997; revised version: November 19, 1997 相似文献
19.
Summary. Two approaches have been proposed in the literature to refine the rationalizability solution concept: either assuming that
a player believes that with small probability her opponents choose strategies that are irrational, or assuming that their
is a small amount of payoff uncertainty. We show that both approaches lead to the same refinement if strategy perturbations
are made according to the concept of weakly perfect rationalizability, and if there is payoff uncertainty as in Dekel and
Fudenberg [J. of Econ. Theory 52 (1990), 243–267]. For both cases, the strategies that survive are obtained by starting with one round of elimination of
weakly dominated strategies followed by many rounds of elimination of strictly dominated strategies.
Received: 10 December 1998; revised version: 26 April 1999 相似文献
20.
This paper analyzes the effects of buyer search costs and seller private and common knowledge on seller competition. It shows that lack of common knowledge results in the equilibrium price continuously decreasing to the perfectly competitive one as buyer search costs for price decrease from positive for all buyers to zero for all buyers, even if each market agent's uncertainty (in the private knowledge) is small. At the same time, if the uncertainty of each seller about buyer valuations is small, the effects of a small change in the search costs or of information structure on pricing may be large (but continuous). 相似文献