The energy revolution in the USA and the pre-salt reserves in Brazil: Risks and opportunities for the Brazilian petrochemical industry

The petrochemical industry is known for its interrelations with the oil industry. In recent years the world has witnessed the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and an associated surge in demand for petroleum and oil products, alongside the emergence of alternative sources of oil and natural gas to those produced by OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and Russia, such as Brazil’s pre-salt reserves and shale gas in the United States. The US is undergoing a veritable energy revolution with its use of unconventional oil and natural gas production techniques in low-permeability reservoirs, chiefly shale gas. Brazil’s prospects as an international player are on the rise thanks to the exploration of oil and natural gas from its pre-salt reserves, which could lead to exports of petroleum of over 2 million barrels/day. All these movements have a direct influence on the petrochemical industry. This article aims to foster discussions about the risks and opportunities facing the Brazilian petrochemical industry with the exploration of oil and natural gas in Brazil and unconventional sources in the United States. Systemic thinking and scenario-based planning were used as the basis for the analysis.     

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on transmission of monetary policy to financial markets

This study uses event-study methodology to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets, based on a sample of 37 countries with severe pandemics. Financial markets include government bond, stock, exchange rate and credit default swap markets. The results suggest that the emergence of pandemic has weakened the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets to a more significant degree. During our sample period following the outbreak of pandemic, neither conventional nor unconventional monetary policies have significant effects on all four of the financial markets. Of course, the unconventional monetary policies are slightly more effective as they can affect the stock and exchange rate markets to some extent. Therefore, in the post-pandemic period, if the monetary policy is used to stimulate financial markets, stronger policy adjustments, or other macro policies such as fiscal policies, may be needed to achieve the desired effect     

Back to the future: The dream of a perpetuum mobile in the atomic society and the hydrogen economy

This article analyses a certain kind of society in which it is proclaimed that abundant energy can be used without any negative side effects. In such “utopias”, individual needs are described as unrestricted, and economic and technological change is said to be unlimited - as if the society were to have a perpetuum mobile at its command. The two examples connected with such expectations are “the atomic/nuclear society” and “the hydrogen economy”. Although these two utopias do differ, their many similarities are the focus of this article. They are similar in that they both invoke the dream of controlling a virtual perpetuum mobile, propose an expert/lay knowledge gap, downplay any risks involved, and rely on a public relations campaign to ensure the public’s collaboration with companies and politicians. I thus connect these two different utopias, discussing them as a part of the modern history of energy production and consumption. Making this connection clarifies some lessons for future energy planning, such as the need for reflection on and critical engagement with utopias, awareness of how a more participatory democratic process may be secured regarding energy issues, and the negative consequences if risk is described in solely economic terms.     

The greening of Swedish energy policy: A critique

This article discusses Swedish energy policy over the period 1973–1992 with a focus on its current energy objectives. Bans on energy sources are assessed as one of the challenges faced by Sweden in the 1990s. We raise questions about the future consequences of such draconian approaches to energy policy that inhibit societal learning. Bans on any fuel source only serve to handicap the economy and lead to a less flexible and more inefficient energy supply at a greater than necessary cost. With the Swedish economy on the verge of becoming more integrated with the rest of Europe, it is imperative to view its comparative advantage in electricity as the basis for its energy policy rather than the individual fuels that generate that electricity. Our goal has been to synthesize components among existing energy objectives to suggest logical implications for the future.     

各国央行非常规货币政策综述

美国次贷危机爆发以来,全球金融系统和实体经济遭遇了严重冲击,为了有效缓解负面冲击,各国央行纷纷推出各种宽松性货币政策,但在实际应用中,传统货币政策不能有效克制危机,美联储等央行纷纷求助于量化宽松等新型非常规货币政策。目前来看,非常规货币政策产生了积极影响,美国等经济体实现了就业的改善、金融系统的稳定和经济增长的复苏。为全面了解货币政策,本文系统归纳了美联储等央行采取的各类非常规货币政策,探讨了非常规货币政策的实施途径及效能得失,并总结了美联储采取非常规货币政策的主要经验。     

Approaches towards a generic methodology for storage of hazardous energy carriers and waste products

Energy carriers – either conventional or ‘new’ ones – have to be provided in large amounts to meet the requirements of permanent availability and reliable supply of electricity. Depending on their state of aggregation, energy carriers are either stored in large masses (if solid or liquid) or at elevated pressures (if gaseous). Both impose the hazard of large-scale fire, in the latter case additionally the danger of explosion or unintended release. Very similar hazards occur for wastes. Solid wastes are present in large masses and only a small part is recycled. Most of the solid wastes are used in energy conversion. The main gaseous waste is CO₂. During capturing also the hazard of unintended release exists. In this article, existing approaches for safe storage and fire prevention are discussed and a generic methodology is outlined. This methodology consists of the following steps:

? gaining knowledge about the behaviour of the material stored (reactivity, thermal stability, etc.),

? assessing the environmental conditions for the storage site (neighbourhood, safety distances, etc.),

? assessment of prospective consequences of an incident and

? development of individual loss prevention conceptions.

All steps require both experimental testing and theoretical considerations about accident scenarios as integral parts of the methodology.     

The Credit Channel at the Zero Lower Bound through the Lens of Equity Prices

This study examines the impact of unconventional monetary policies on the stock market when the short‐term nominal interest rate is stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Unconventional monetary policies appear to have significant effects on stock prices and the effects differ across stocks. In agreement with existing credit channel theories, I find that firms subject to financial constraints react more strongly to unconventional monetary policy shocks [especially large‐scale asset purchases (LSAPs)] than do less constrained firms. These results imply that the credit channel is as important as the interest rate channel in the transmission of unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB.     

How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences

The financial crisis showed, once again, that neglecting real estate booms can have disastrous consequences. In this paper, we spell out the circumstances under which a more active policy agenda on this front would be justified. Then, we offer insights on the pros and cons as well as implementation challenges of various policy tools that can be used to contain the damage to the financial system and the economy from real estate boom–bust episodes. These insights derive from econometric analysis, when possible, and case studies of country experiences. Broadly, booms financed through credit and involving leverage are more likely to warrant a policy response. In that context, macroprudential measures can be targeted more precisely to specific sources of risk, but they may prove ineffective because of circumvention. In that case, monetary policy may have to be used to lean against the wind.     

A model of unconventional monetary policy

We develop a quantitative monetary DSGE model with financial intermediaries that face endogenously determined balance sheet constraints. We then use the model to evaluate the effects of the central bank using unconventional monetary policy to combat a simulated financial crisis. We interpret unconventional monetary policy as expanding central bank credit intermediation to offset a disruption of private financial intermediation. Within our framework the central bank is less efficient than private intermediaries at making loans but it has the advantage of being able to elastically obtain funds by issuing riskless government debt. Unlike private intermediaries, it is not balance sheet constrained. During a crisis, the balance sheet constraints on private intermediaries tighten, raising the net benefits from central bank intermediation. These benefits may be substantial even if the zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate is not binding. In the event this constraint is binding, though, these net benefits may be significantly enhanced.     

The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and investor sentiment across conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. During conventional times, we find that a surprise decrease in the fed funds rate leads to a large increase in investor sentiment. Similarly, when the fed funds rate is at its zero lower bound, research results indicate that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks also have a large and positive impact on investor mood. Together, our findings highlight the importance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the determination of investor sentiment.     

Unconventional monetary policy in emerging markets

Channels of monetary transmission likely to work in an emerging market (EM) are presented. The Indian accommodative policy cycle, and the papers in this special issue, is used to analyse unconventional aspects of EM monetary policy. It is argued that conditions used to justify unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies routinely hold in EMs.     

国能生物:中国生物质发电的先行者

由于全球面临的化石能源危机以及由此带来的环境危机,使世界各国从未像今天这样关注可再生清洁能源。寻找和推动可再生清洁能源成为越来越多国家的重要发展战略,生物质能源就是其中一种。在很多国家,生物质能源甚至成为超过信息产业的国家支柱产业。在瑞典,25%的能源需求已被生物质能源取代,到2020年,瑞典将成为世界上第一个不依赖石油的国家。在巴西,50%的汽油已被生物质能源甘蔗乙醇替代。在中国,尽管生物质能源的出现和发展比太阳能、风能要早,但其发展却不及太阳能、风能那般快速。＂中国生物质资源浪费严重,每年至少有2亿吨生物质资源在田间焚烧或丢弃,按电厂目前每吨300元的收购价格计算,直接损失达600个亿!如果这些生物质资源转化为电能,不仅可以增加农民收入,为农民创造就业机会,还可以为中国县域经济提供稳定的绿色电力与热力,并达到节能减排、保护环境的作用。＂国能生物发电集团有限公司（以下简称＂国能生物＂）董事长蒋大龙在接受《国际融资》记者专访时以切身体会坦言。为了和时间赛跑,与浪费抢资源,国能生物以社会责任为己任,在短短5年间,把国能生物发展成为全球最大的生物质发电投资、建设、运营一体化的专业化公司,共建设了35家生物质发电厂,其中23家已投入运营,总计向社会输入绿色电力79.4亿千瓦时、减少二氧化碳排放620万吨、为农村提供了约6万就业岗位、使农民从秸秆销售中获得额外收入达32亿元     

次贷危机后美联储非常规货币政策及退出机制分析——基于美联储资产负债表的视角

次贷危机发生后,很多国家中央银行都采取了大量的非常规货币政策来确保金融系统的稳定和促进经济增长,尤其以美联储的非常规货币政策最具代表性。虽然非常规货币政策复杂多变,但是通常在央行资产负债表中清晰记录。借助于美联储资产负债表,能够全面梳理次贷危机后美联储的非常规货币政策,有助于深入理解非常规货币政策的实施和退出机制。     

Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm

Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher-Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.     

Prospects for external sources of vehicle propulsion: Results of a Delphi study

This article presents the outcome of a Delphi study carried out between October 1995 and February 1996. The subject of the study is external sources of vehicle propulsion, and its possible role in achieving more sustainable modes of transportation. The Delphi study concludes that external propulsion technologies are unlikely to be the substitute for internal combustion engines. External sources of power or energy are potentially a means of saving energy, because the weight of vehicles can be reduced and energy can be produced on a large scale thus boosting efficiency. However, there is no practical system by which these advantages can be realized without putting an unacceptable strain on the quality of the transport system. The costs would be huge; there would be considerable energy losses; safety problems could arise; and the flexibility of the users is limited. Electric vehicles could, however, become important. Pantographs and quick charging techniques could become important technologies if battery technology will not improve considerably.     

The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the market for collateral: The case of the French bond market

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used as collateral both in the open market operations of the ECB and on the interbank market. In our time-varying transition probability Markov-switching (TVTP-MS) model, we highlight the existence of two regimes. In one of them, which we refer to as the conventional regime, monetary policy neutrality is verified; in the other, which we dub the unconventional regime, monetary policy operations lead to volatility and liquidity premia on the collateral market. The existence of these conventional and unconventional regimes highlights some asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy.     

非传统货币政策的退出指标和时机选择

应对金融危机的非传统货币政策实施以来,其退出问题日益成为国际关注的焦点。本文从货币政策传导机制理论出发,分析了危机状态下传统货币政策传导如何受阻,非传统货币政策如何影响受阻环节的市场因素来修复传导机制。本文以此为依据,构建了选择非传统货币政策退出时机的指标体系,针对不同操作手段、操作目标选取相应的金融市场指标和宏观经济指标。在此基础上本文分析了这些指标在政策实施前后的表现,并探讨美国、英国和欧元区国家等主要发达经济体非传统货币政策退出的时机选择。     

Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis

Regulators have been paying increasing attention to governing and steering market fluctuations, with their role in shaping the economic cycle being ever more crucial. The combined effect of the financial and sovereign debt crises, as well as the approach to the zero lower bound, has made actions even more pressing, forcing the European Central Bank to resort to unconventional instruments to revive the economies and counter deflationary pressures. By using a combined event study and panel regression methodology, we investigate whether European Monetary Union equity markets react heterogeneously to standard and non-standard European Central Bank policy innovations. Our results show that conventional policies unevenly affect financial indices in the Eurozone and, hence, are bound to generate asymmetries that reflect on real economies, while unconventional measures, albeit with different intensities, exercise a homogeneous pressure on all markets. Our evidence highlights the beneficial impact of unconventional measures and suggests that they can play a useful role even in non-crisis times.     

A web-based multi-agent decision support system for a city-oriented management of cruise arrivals

Cruise tourism represents a strategic sector for the economic growth of several countries, impacting on different direct and indirect markets. The arrival of cruises in a city represents an unmissable opportunity to increment its tourist market penetration. Nevertheless, the management of an unforeseen number of passengers that need to visit a city in a short time may also have a negative impact, so reducing the expected benefits. This is mainly due to the difficulty of taking the right decisions when organizing the dispatching of passengers in different city areas since these decisions depend on several conditions that can also dynamically occur, and may have an impact on different city sectors. Here, a decision support system is proposed to help involved stakeholders to make decisions to plan passengers' transportation in the city and also to evaluate the consequences for the city if the plans are really implemented. The system is designed according to the multi-agent paradigm, so allowing one to easily manage the necessary coordination among different entities and data sources that are usually distributed and need to cooperate to provide useful suggestions. In addition, a prototype of a web-based application is provided to end users, so that it can run on heterogeneous platforms, and it can be easily accessed by different users from different devices, as it is the case for the considered application domain.     

The Economics of Wind Energy

In the summer of 2008 the authors of this article met with Boone Pickens to discuss the centerpiece of the Pickens plan for moving the U.S. toward energy independence: the feasibility of wind power as a source for the production of electricity. That meeting, along with their survey of published sources, leads the authors to the following conclusions:

• •

  Wind power is an abundant and clean source of energy for the U.S. both now and in the future.
• •

  Wind power is now economically viable in some parts of the country, and would be viable throughout the wind-rich mid-section of the U.S. if we had a national transmission grid.

But developing such a grid faces several hurdles, including the cost of construction and the need for state-by-state approvals of interstate transmission lines. To overcome these obstacles, the authors offer the following policy recommendations:

• Federal oversight of the construction of the national transmission grid. Moving toward renewable sources of energy and reduced greenhouse gas from the use of coal changes the problem of managing electric power generation from a local to regional and national problem. This requires broader cooperation and coordination to ensure the construction and management of reliable sources of electric power.

• Identify adequate sources of financing. The positive economics of wind power suggest that wind farm development and transmission grid installation should attract sufficient private funding to fully develop the 20% wind solution. But because of the sheer size of the plan, completing it may require innovative financing structures that include the possibility of some combination of public and private funding sources.