融资收缩和宏观经济政策研究

一、有关融资的原理和我国融资结构概况 (一)融资的一般原理 融资是资金短缺单位与资金富余单位通过建立债权债务关系,使资金短缺单位从资金富余单位取得资金使用权,即资金短缺单位从资金富余单位融入(借入)资金,或者说资金富余单位向资金短缺单位融出(贷出)资金.资金借入者(例如公司、个人独资企业、农户)借入资金一般用于投资,也有用于消费的(主要是消费信贷),但我国数量还很少.     

全球经济失衡与中国宏观经济政策

当前全球经济失衡的主要表现是,美国经常账户赤字庞大、债务增长迅速,而日本、中国和亚洲其他主要新兴市场国家对美国持有大量贸易盈余。处于这种大背景下,中国经济运行面临极其严峻的挑战。本文从宏观经济的供给大于需求、资金供应大于需求、储蓄大于投资三个方面来分析这种挑战。     

经济形势和当前宏观经济政策选择

一、对当前经济形势的三点判断当前,我国国民经济经过一年多的治理整顿,经济形势有明显好转,治理整顿取得了初步成效。主要是多年经济过热增长明显降温,通货膨胀率稳步下降,经济秩序明显好转。但是,由于多年积累的问题不可能在短期内解决,经济在治理整顿过程中又出现了一些新问题。当前经济形势的特点是: (一) 连续几年过热增长的经济明显降温,工业生产增长速度全年累计也大体合适;     

宏观经济政策转向 刺激经济力促增长

胡锦涛主席在全球金融峰会期间表示,要通过调整宏观经济政策,充分利用货币财政手段,促进经济增长,防止全球性经济衰退。为应对金融危机,中国及时出台了一系列促进经济增长、扩大内需的政策措施,这将有力拉动中国经济增长,对世界经济稳定起到积极作用。这表明,中国将通过促进经济增长的方式来维护金融体系的稳定。     

中国经济迅速发展中的宏观经济政策研究

在经济全球化发展当中,发展中国家正在以崛起的形式向新的未来进行不断的努力,每个国家在运用宏观政策,对本国在国际中的政治以及经济地位进行分析的时候,都会采用一定的战略部署和经济政策,来应对经济持续可发展等一系列的问题。在中国经济实体发展的今天,总体宏观经济政策调整重点方向早已明确,在运用政策目标和工具相互协调的基础上,培育更新的竞争力量,从而进一步的转变政治职能,来对财政收支平衡做出新的细致打算。只有培育资本市场,才能够不断的加强国际金融合作。~([1])     

今年我国宏观经济形势与经济政策展望

本文回顾了去年宏观经济走势并对于今年的宏观经济形势和经济政策动向进行了展望.今年必须保持相对平稳的经济增长速度,考虑到当前并不具备高速增长的条件,因此经济增长目标不宜定得过高;财政投资在带动经济增长中将继续发挥重要作用,今年必须合理确定国债发行和财政支出的规模,提高财政投资的效率.在分析了当前货币政策决策和实施中面临的四大难题后,作者提出今年货币政策的实施必须在四个方面适时进行结构性调整,包括在利率调整时充分考虑商业银行承担的利率风险、灵活调整境内外币利率、促进本外币资金的协调运行、不失时机地推进利率市场化改革和完善准备金制度.     

开放经济下宏观经济政策与银行稳定

开放经济中宏观经济政策不稳健将通过利率、汇率等路径对一国银行稳定造成冲击。本文将利用Mundell-Fleming-Dornbucsh的开放经济模型即IS-LM-BP模型,深入研究这些影响的内在机理,并从20世纪80年代以来全球主要银行不稳定事件中给予相应的经验事实证明。     

今年我国宏观经济形势与经济政策展望

本文回顾了去年宏观经济走势并对于今年的宏观经济形势和经济政策动向进行了展望。今年必须保持相对平稳的经济增长速度，考虑到当前并不具备高速增长的条件，因此经济增长目标不宜定得过高；财政投资在带动经济增长中将继续发挥重要作用，今年必须合理确定国债发行和财政支出的规模，提高财政投资的效率。在分析了当前货币政策决策和实施中面临的四大难题后，作者提出今年货币政策的实施必须在四个方面适时进行结构性调整，包括在利率调整时充分考虑商业银行承担的利率风险、灵活调整境内外币利率、促进本外币资金的协调运行、不失时机地推进利率市场化改革和完善准备金制度。     

2011年宏观经济形势和政策前瞻

2011年,世界经济复苏进程依然艰难,且新兴市场和发达国家增长不平衡的局面将继续存在。国内经济增速将有所放缓,但仍将保持在较高水平,GDP增速将呈前低后高走势。通货膨胀压力仍然较大,预计全年CPI涨幅在4 5%左右,其中受翘尾因素影响,CPI月度涨幅高点可能出现在一季度。宏观政策方面,预计货币政策将继续稳中偏紧,信贷规模控制仍将是主要手段。     

Sustainable development: The impact of political risk,macroeconomic policy uncertainty and ethnic conflict

We examine the impact of political risk, macroeconomic policy uncertainty, and social risk on sustainable development for a panel covering 47 developing economies from 1991 to 2020. We present an augmented green Solow growth model linking policy risk and uncertainty to sustainable development through their interaction with pollution abatement activities. We employ a political risk index to capture the composite impact of risk factors relevant to political rule and regulation, a macroeconomic policy index to evaluate the uncertainty associated with inflation, exchange rate, and fiscal policies and an index of ethnic fractionalization to appreciate social risk. The empirical results confirm that all the risk and uncertainty factors examined exert significant negative short- and long-run impacts on sustainable development. The findings highlight the importance of risk management as a key control policy when designing sustainability policies promoting pollution emissions abatement.     

Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma

Macroeconomic policy choices in open economies are constrained by the trilemma according to which the objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital mobility cannot be attained jointly. This paper shows that foreign exchange interventions provide an effective instrument to relax the trilemma. An active reserve policy allows central banks to pursue independent monetary and exchange rate policies when the capital account is liberalised.We use the framework of the portfolio balance model to show that exchange market interventions may substitute for capital controls. Both allow a country to achieve the other two objectives of the trilemma. Our empirical analysis of a large country panel data set covering the period 1970–2010 confirms this theoretical insight: the weighted sum of the three trilemma objectives increases in the degree of foreign exchange market intervention. The capacity to relax the trilemma constraint has increased over time and has been most effective in emerging markets.     

Banking deregulation,macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy

We assess the effects of increased bank competition on macroeconomic and lending dynamics and on the transmission of monetary policy. Applying panel local projections to state-level data, we, in a first step, investigate the dynamic effects of fiercer bank competition induced by deregulation allowing geographical expansion of banks across state borders in the 1980s and early-1990s. We allow for possible adjustments before the new laws became effective due to potential anticipation effects. Our findings suggest that these events were anticipated and that they temporarily increased economic activity as well as business and consumer lending. We also find a permanent increase in real estate lending and house prices. In a second step, we show that the impact of monetary policy on economic activity, house prices and lending tended to become stronger after interstate banking deregulation.     

Time series momentum and macroeconomic risk

The time series momentum strategy, previously known as trend following, has been shown to deliver consistent profitability over a long time horizon in futures markets. Funds pursuing this strategy are now a component of many institutional portfolios, due to the expectation of positive returns in equity bear markets. However, the return drivers of the strategy and its performance in other economic conditions are less well understood. We find evidence that the returns to the strategy are connected to the business cycle. Returns are positive in both recessions and expansions, but profitability is higher in expansions. Decomposing asset prices into factor related and idiosyncratic components, we associate a significant portion of returns with exposure to time varying economic factors, consistent with rational asset pricing theories having a role in explaining the profitability of the strategy.     

Interest rate pass-through,monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability

In this paper we analyze equilibrium determinacy in a sticky price model in which the pass-through from policy rates to retail interest rates is sluggish and potentially incomplete. In addition, we empirically characterize and compare the interest rate pass-through process in the euro area and the U.S. We find that if the pass-through is incomplete in the long run, the standard Taylor principle is insufficient to guarantee equilibrium determinacy. Our empirical analysis indicates that this result might be particularly relevant for bank-based financial systems as for instance that in the euro area.     

中外专家谈全球宏观政策协调

俄罗斯文明对话研究所创始人和监事会主席、莫斯科国立大学国家治理系主任弗拉基米尔·雅库宁: 基础设施发展是关键要素和环节 在结构性改革和发展的过程中,世界范围内仍然面临很多不确定性.全球化一词仍被大家提及,并没有被人们淡忘.但由于技术发展,全球化也发生了变化.比如政治、体制的变化在全球仍然占据着非常重要的作用.     

Capital structure,credit risk,and macroeconomic conditions

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice. We begin by observing that when cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the position of the economy in the business cycle phase. We then demonstrate that this simple observation has a wide range of empirical implications for corporations. Notably, we show that our model can replicate observed debt levels and the countercyclicality of leverage ratios. We also demonstrate that it can reproduce the observed term structure of credit spreads and generate strictly positive credit spreads for debt contracts with very short maturities. Finally, we characterize the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the pace and size of capital structure changes, and debt capacity.     

Effects of the fraud triangle on students’ risk assessments

This study is motivated by Bailey’s [Bailey, C. D. (2004). An unusual cash control procedure. Journal of Accounting Education, 22, 119–129]. A disappointing 89% of Bailey’s 502 students appear to have overestimated the risk of an asset misappropriation. This study presents the results of two quasi-experiments that test whether students’ risk assessments are affected by the type of model presented to them immediately preceding their risk assessments. One group was provided an overview of the widely used Committee of Sponsoring Organizations (COSO), Internal Control—Integrated Framework and the second group was provided a briefing on the Fraud Triangle, a model originally developed by criminologist, Donald R. Cressey (1973). As predicted, students who were provided an overview of the fraud triangle committed fewer Type I and Type II errors than students who were provided an overview of COSO. The results from this study contribute to the literature on risk assessment by demonstrating how the fraud triangle could, in some situations, lead to better risk assessments.     

External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets

Estimated structural VARs show that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market quickly and strongly. The price level and real output in a typical emerging market respond to U.S. monetary policy shocks by more than the price level and real output in the U.S. itself. These findings are consistent with the idea that “when the U.S. sneezes, emerging markets catch a cold.” At the same time, U.S. monetary policy shocks are not important for emerging markets relative to other kinds of external shocks.