我国农村计划生育服务机制与转型研究

采用典型案例研究方法,对我国农村计划生育服务发展和转型模式进行研究。我国农村计划生育服务拓展和转型是多重因素共同作用的结果,与当地人口发展、妇幼保健、公共卫生资源和经济社会发展水平密切相关。需要完善计划生育服务财政投入体制,为服务转型和可持续发展提供可靠的制度保证,确立以家庭为基础的计划生育/生殖健康/家庭保健优质服务的战略指导框架,把农村计划生育服务机构建设成促进人口和家庭健康的公共服务系统。     

流动人口与常住居民计生服务均等化评价与需求偏好差异——基于绍兴市的个案研究

对绍兴市的流动人口和常住居民两个群体享有的计划生育公共服务的均等化水平进行了评价和分析。总体上流动人口与常住居民之间的计生服务均等化程度处于较高水平,但婚姻状况等等一些个人特征因素不同程度地影响着流动人口对计生服务均等化的感受和评价。流动人口与常住居民对计生服务的内容存在较大的需求偏好差异。     

人口和计划生育利益导向政策研究:回顾与前瞻

人口和计划生育利益导向政策的发展经历了从最初简单的节育手术等节制生育的服务措施,到明确将利益导向政策上升到国家制度层面,再到全面建设和发展利益导向政策体系的几个重要阶段。随着计划生育政策目标由降低生育率向稳定低生育水平、统筹解决人口问题、实现人口长期均衡发展的转变,利益导向方法、手段与措施的不断丰富与拓展,人口和计划生育利益导向政策也面临着人口和计划生育利益导向政策的科学评估、普惠政策与利益导向政策协调机制的建立与完善、人口长期均衡发展背景下计划生育利益导向政策走向的明确等-系列新的研究课题。     

Family planning information: do low-income families need and want it?

A survey was conducted among nutrition aides in the U.S. to find out their attitudes toward family planning, and to determine if the low-income families in their case-loads had expressed an interest in family planning. First, a random sample of nutrition aides was drawn and questionnaires mailed to the selected aides. There was a 95% response rate (375) and an overwhelming endorsement of family planning. 93.7% declared their clientele needed information on family planning, and 2/3 reported they had been asked for birth control information from members of the families they serviced. Almost 97% of the sides gave some kind of birth control advice when asked for it, although mostly of a referral nature. 87% of the respondents said they would be willing to teach family planning if they were trained in it.     

现行生育政策研究

现行生育政策最初是在1982年中央11号文件中提出来的。它对于纠正从1978年开始提出并逐渐形成的“一胎化”生育政策的偏差,起到一定的积极作用。但是,在控制人口效果方面,现行生育政策对于抑制农村妇女的早婚早育和多胎生育、调节和疏导我国第三次生育高峰却没有多少实际意义。相反,由于现行生育政策同广大农民的生育意愿之间的差距过大,在长期执行过程中一直在给农民造成巨大的伤害,所以,迅速改变现行生育政策,彻底纠正“一胎化”生育政策给社会稳定带来的隐患,是一件刻不容缓的事情。     

普惠型社会保障背景下的计划生育利益导向政策

分析了普惠型社会保障和计划生育利益导向机制在长远目标和价值取向上的异同。在普惠型社会保障逐步建立健全的背景下,完善计划生育利益导向政策体系应遵循"抓特放普"的基本思路,不宜过多增加普遍型计生优惠,而应注重政策效用,将重点放在计划生育困难家庭的扶助和保障上,同时要考量制度的内在合理性、注重不同人群间的政策公平性。     

中国人口出生性别比的空间计量分析

利用中国2000年人口普查数据中各省市的人口出生性别比数据,定量检验了经济、教育、医疗及计划生育政策等因素对人口出生性别比的影响。人口出生性别比在地理上存在集聚现象,空间地理因素对其影响显著;教育和医疗水平对出生性别比的直接影响较小,但它们会通过空间地理因素、经济和计划生育政策等因素间接影响出生性别比。计划生育政策对人口出生性别比的影响最显著。经济及医疗水平越高出生性别比越低,教育水平越高出生性别比越高,计划生育政策越宽松出生性别比越低。     

The estimation of costs and effectiveness of community-based family planning services

The attempt is made to estimate the cost of family planning service provision and to demonstrate a means of showing the effectiveness of these services. The empirical results presented relate to the Grampian Health Board Area, located in North-East Scotland, for the financial year 1977-1978. The total population is about 450,000. Grampain is divided into 3 districts -- North, West and South, and the South district includes the City of Aberdeen with a population of over 200,000. A measure of effectiveness was developed which is based on the use-effectiveness of contraceptive methods used by family planning services users compared to that of those most likely to be used by this population in the absence of family planning services. The measure was then modified in view of the constraints on contraceptive use and demographic data. The measure used showed that the effectiveness of the services is dependent upon both the take-up rate and the use-effectiveness of the services provided. Concentrating on the conception-avoidance goal only underestimates the services' achievements, for family planning is also concerned with achieving wanted family creation. It was estimated that given the utilization rate of Grampian's community-based family planning services in 1977-1978, between 828 and 1242 unwanted conceptions were avoided, with an associated cost to the National Health Service per unwanted conception avoided of between 264 pounds and 396 pounds.     

Traditional Shona concepts on family life and how systems planned on the basis of these concepts effectively contained the population growth of Shona communities

The author examines the religious and cultural beliefs of the Shona population of Africa and their effects on the society's family planning attitudes. The importance of understanding the circumstances and motivations of individual societies in designing effective family planning services and educational programs is emphasized     

我国流动人口的避孕节育现况

对流动人口的计划生育、避孕节育等现况做了综述。流动人口的违法生育现象远比当地户籍人口严重;流动人口中采取避孕节育措施的以女性为主,多数选择宫内节育器和女性绝育方法;避孕知识缺乏;流动人口的婚恋观念开放,婚前性行为发生率高,加之避孕知识少,避孕措施的使用率低,获得相关服务少,导致了较高的人工流产率。流动人口的避孕节育、计划生育现况不容乐观。以上问题可能与目前流动人口计划生育管理体制不够完善、流动人口生殖健康相关知识缺乏、经济状况差以及计划生育服务的可及性差等因素有关。提出相应的对策,以改善流动人口避孕节育状况。     

人口计生服务网络在新农村建设中的作用

分析了实施社会主义新农村建设的基本需求和条件,探讨了将我国人口与计划生育服务网络调整为社会公共服务体系的可能性和意义,论证了人口计生服务网络在新农村建设中的作用和重要地位。     

独生子女政策风险研究

独生子女家庭具有天然的结构性缺陷与系统性风险。中国计划生育已经陷入矛盾陷阱:一方面意识到独生子女家庭的结构性缺陷,对包括独生子女家庭在内的部分计划生育家庭实行补偿与救助,另一方面仍在继续鼓励更多独生子女的出现。独生子女政策在付出巨大的成本与代价后换来的却是高风险社会的来临,与"花钱买风险"无异。终止独生子女政策是规避独生子女家庭风险的必然选择。     

论生育政策的制定与调整——一个过程论的分析视角

生育政策主要以立法、行政决策和党的规范性文件为表达形式。生育政策在生育数量、社会抚养费和对违反法律、法规生育者行政处分等方面面临着一系列问题,产生这些问题的重要原因之一便是生育政策制定和调整过程中科学性和民主性的缺失。良好的生育政策的制定与调整,需要多领域专家的论证,以专业性和中立性来保证政策的科学性;同时也需要广大公众的积极参与,以通过组织化的基本权利之利益诉求的表达来保证政策的民主性。     

Couple's literacy level and acceptance of family planning methods: Lorenz curve analysis

The authors study the acceptance of family planning methods according to the level of couple's literacy in 14 states in India during 1986-87, using the Lorenz curve. The Gini Concentration Ratio and Index of Dissimilarity were calculated by level of couple's literacy for vasectomy, tubectomy, IUD, and all method combined. Firstly, analysis found literates to have accepted vasectomy and IUD more than tubectomy. Secondly, among the 3 methods, a high Gini Concentration Ratio was found for vasectomy when the wife was literate. Moreover, when the wife was literate, the Gini Concentration Ratio of IUD acceptance was higher than the acceptance of IUD by the wife whose husband was literate. Thirdly, the same trend was observed when the husband was illiterate. It is therefore clear that the level of a woman's literacy is a key factor in securing the acceptance of male or female methods of family planning. Planners should therefore concentrate on literacy programs for females independently of their age. Increasing the level of female literacy may ultimately help improve the understanding of family planning methods, while these women may also motivate their husbands to undergo vasectomy which will ultimately foster the success of the family planning program.     

家族企业CEO继任计划及其影响因素研究:以浙江民营企业为例

家族企业在世界和中国经济中都扮演了重要角色，本文从继任计划（succession planning）的概念出发，以浙江民营企业为例，对关乎家族企业兴衰成败的最高领导人CEO的继任计划进行了考察。文章区分了两类不同的家族企业CEO继任模式，并着重对内部继任计划的初始满意感和影响因素进行了分析。最后，本文对中国文化背景下家族企业CEO继任计划的应用做了一些思考。     

储蓄率、经常项目顺差与人口结构变迁

文章从一个多期人口代际交叠模型入手,分析了计划生育政策对人口结构和抚养比例的影响,同时还运用中国数据对人口抚养比与储蓄率、相对生产率差异与经常项目差额进行协整与因果检验。文章认为:计划生育政策并非不可持续,特定时期内放开该政策已经无法应对社会抚养高峰,而保持该政策则会获得一个较低人口总量的均衡人口结构。经常项目差额实际上只是储蓄的跨时空转移。人口年龄结构决定储蓄率,决定储蓄的跨时间转移,国家相对生产率差异决定储蓄的跨空间转移。空间上的这种转移并不改变一国国民的总福利;时间上的转移也不改变代与代之间的总福利。因此,不考虑人口结构、提高即期消费率刺激经济的做法值得商榷,过分关注短期经常项目差额并无太大必要。     

Family planning programme in India: an economic evaluation

The author evaluates the cost-effectiveness of India's national family planning program.     

《人口与计划生育法》第十八条解读

《人口与计划生育法》第十八条将我国过去长期以来的生育政策首次以法律的形式予以规范。该条的结构主要包括:对现行生育政策的稳定;对倡导性义务的表述;对生育数量确定的"原则+授权"。通过仔细考量,所谓的倡导性义务实质更多的还是强制性义务;将对生育数量的限制权力授予法规,可能与法律保留原则存在不符;将对生育数量进行限制的具体办法交由地方性法规制定,可能给予地方过多的立法上的自由裁量权,有碍平等原则,与立法目的不一致;对生育数量的确定应当是公民的选择性权利,而非仰赖国家的行政许可;生育政策的法律化应当由人大而非人大常委会来进行。     

二孩政策地区经验的普适性及其相关问题——兼对“21世纪中国生育政策研究”的评价

在仔细研读"21世纪中国生育政策研究"课题系列研究报告的基础上,认为二孩政策试点成效卓著,试点经验具有普适性,但同时也存在某些局限。国家与学者应切实承担起指导中国基层人口与计划生育工作实践的责任。生育政策、生育水平、出生性别比、计划生育工作之间并非简单的线性关系,在生育政策制定与调整中价值判断与事实判断两者不可偏废。部分省份某些计划生育利益导向政策缺乏正当性,应该予以废除。     

Economic-demographic interactions and the impact of investments in population control

The interaction between economic and demographic factors in the Philippines was examined, analyzing the effects of investment in fertility control on the birthrate, population size, and such economic variables as gross national product (GNP), wage rate, and family income. A family planning model that was constructed and is used to project population program cost and births prevented is grafted to and simulated with a larger economic/demographic model. The simulation results are anayzed. The economic demographic model to which the family planning subsystem was grafted is a modified version of the model constructed by Encarnacion et al. (1974). It is basically a neoclassical model, a closed economy in which the real wage rate is determined by the intersection of the demand and supply of labor. The demand for labor is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function on the assumption that labor is paid the value of its margin product, and the labor supply is determined by age and sex specific labor force participation rates and population. Capital accumulation is influenced by population size through its effect on government and private consumption expe nditures. Fertility rate is determined by duration of marriage and the level and distribution of family incomes. The model was used to develop projections from 1970 through 2000. Results show that the effects on per capital income and real wage rate seem significant, yet family income appears largely unaffected and the effect on the traditional investment to output ratio (I/Y) seems minimal. One of the outcomes of the projection without family planning is that, if the economy were to depend solely on its own savings, the average annual rate of growth of gross national product (GNP) would be only about 4.32%, which is less than the historical growth rate of 6% and the present government longterm target of 8%. The result suggests that foreign investments and loans would have to play an increasingly important role in the economic growth of the Philippines unless the gross domestic investment of GNP ratio is increased substantially. Aggregate output is reduced due to a relatively smaller labor force. Thus, it is suggested that if population control programs are accompanied by an increase in the labor participation rate, particularly of women, the payoffs from family planning may be larger. Closer examination of the nature of the payoffs from the family planning program would reveal that they basically stem from the decrease in the number of persons sharing in national output and not from increased production and saving. The observation suggests that population control does not necessarily lead to more rapid economic growth defined as sustained increase in total output.