封闭模型下稻米生产技术进步的福利效应分析

运用误差修正模型,估计我国稻米供给和需求弹性,在此基础上,采用Akino和Hayami提出的福利效应模型,具体测算我国稻米生产技术进步的福利效应并进行分解,基本结论为：稻米具有较低的供给弹性和需求弹性,稻米技术进步的福利效应表现为消费者剩余的增加和生产者剩余的减少,但消费者剩余的增加值远远大于生产者剩余的减少值,从而整个社会经济福利水平呈现上升趋势。     

Quantity,quality and the welfare effects of US airline deregulation

In this paper we employ a method for estimationg quality-adjusted demand to calculate measures of the change in consumer suruplus due to US airline deregulation. The quality-adjusted estimates of the price elasticity of demand indicate that consumers are from 25% to 50% more sensitive to changes in air fares than unadjusted estimates would suggest. Changes in unadjusted consumer surplus overstate the net welfare gains from deregulation by roughly a factor of two, strongly suggesting that adjustments for quallity of service are essential to welfare analysis of regulatory changes in this industry     

品牌经济学的理论基础——引入品牌的需求曲线及其经济学分析

把品牌引入经济学后,品牌信用度的提高使得需求曲线发生变化,一方面在其他条件不变的情况下,品牌信用度的提高将有效地降低消费者的选择成本,消费者“趋利避害”的本性使得在任意价格下需求量增加,需求曲线右移;另一方面品牌信用度的提高使得品牌商品的需求弹性变小,需求曲线变陡峭。引入品牌后改变了需求曲线的位置和形状乃品牌经济学的理论基础。在此基础上,品牌信用度的提高通过改变需求曲线的位置将使得均衡价格提高,且均衡数量增加,同时将会增加消费者剩余和生产者剩余,提高社会福利水平。     

THE IMPACT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING ON CONSUMER SURPLUS, PROFIT, AND SOCIAL WELFARE

This study estimates the effect of U.S. cigarette advertising on social welfare. Because economists hold different beliefs about the nature of advertising, the analysis uses three different empirical models to test the welfare implication of cigarette advertising. Each model employs estimates of a demand equation and a supply relation to calculate a single point estimate of the impact of advertising on profit, consumer surplus, and total surplus. Bootstrapping generates confidence intervals for each welfare estimate. The results indicate that the cigarette industry is not competitive and that advertising significantly increases market power. Further, advertising significantly reduces consumer surplus if it is either purely persuasive or purely informative but has no significant effect on total surplus.     

WELFARE COST OF AN OIL IMPORT FEE

This paper examines the impacts on the US. oil market of a $5-per-barrel tariff on imported crude oil. The analysis shows that the United States currently is a price taker in the world oil market. This means that "optimal tariff" arguments for an oil import fee have no validity. The author also argues that any economic losses that oil supply disruptions generate are better addressed with alternative policy tools. To forecast the effects of the tariff on US. production, the author uses a domestic oil supply model that she developed elsewhere. She calculates the resulting gains in producer surplus and then combines them with an estimate of consumer surplus losses and government revenues so as to yield an estimate of the tariff's welfare cost. This welfare cost amounts to approximately $17 billion (in present-value terms) over the 1988–1998 period.     

License prices for financially constrained firms

It is often alleged that high auction prices inhibit service deployment. We investigate this claim under the extreme case of financially constrained bidders. If demand is just slightly elastic, auctions maximize consumer surplus if consumer surplus is a convex function of quantity (a common assumption), or if consumer surplus is concave and the proportion of expenditure spent on deployment is greater than one over the elasticity of demand. The latter condition appears to be true for most of the large telecom auctions in the US and Europe. Thus, even if high auction prices inhibit service deployment, auctions appear to be optimal from the consumers’ point of view.      

Intergenerational transfers and the social discount rate

This paper investigates the relationship between intergenerational asset transfers and the choice of the discount rate for use in cost-benefit analysis in a model of a competitive overlapping generations economy constrained by a socially managed exhaustible resource. Provided that there are no distortions in capital markets and that all agents hold perfect foresight, cost-benefit techniques will result in a Pareto efficient resource allocation if the discount rate is set equal to the market rate of interest. But since the path of the interest rate depends on the level of intergenerational transfers, cost-benefit techniques do not ensure a socially desirable distribution of welfare between generations; a social optimum will result only if intergenerational transfers are properly chosen and enforced. Decentralized private altruism may result in intergenerational transfers that both present and future individuals would agree are too small if members of the present generation attach positive weight to the general welfare of future generations, not simply their personal descendants. In a world where intergenerational transfers are non-optimal, second-best policy-making may imply a constrained optimum that is inefficient. Together, these findings suggest that cost-benefit analysis is at best a partial criterion to policy formulation that should be used only in conjunction with ethical principles that define the proper distribution of welfare between present and future generations.     

MEASURING THE DEADWEIGHT COSTS OF DUP AND RENT SEEKING ACTIVITIES

I examine a simple model of rent seeking behavior in order to determine the correct way to measure welfare loss due to rent seeking. I conduct this analysis using a general equilibrium version of the standard partial equilibrium consumers' surplus cost-benefit setup. I conclude that the ordinary tools of cost-benefit analysis, such as consumers' and producers' surplus, are up to the task of measuring the deadweight loss due to rent seeking, as long as they are applied in the proper general equilibrium context.     

Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties

This paper develops a modelling framework that links GEMINI-E3, a multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with a cost-benefit analysis approach at local level using geographical information system tools to assess the physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) in the twenty first century. A set of future scenarios is developed spanning the uncertainties related to global warming, the parameters of semi-empirical SLR estimates, and coastal developments (cropland, urban areas and population). The importance of incorporating uncertainties regarding coastal development is highlighted. The simulation results suggest that the potential development of future coastal areas is a greater source of uncertainty than the parameters of SLR itself in terms of the economic consequences of SLR. At global level, the economic impact of SLR could be significant when loss of productive land along with loss of capital and forced displacement of populations are considered. Furthermore, highly urbanised and densely populated coastal areas of South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are likely to suffer significantly if no protective measures are taken. Hence, it is suggested that coastal areas needs to be protected to ameliorate the overall welfare cost across various regions.     

Public investments in sustainable technology: an evaluation of North Carolina's Green Business Fund

North Carolina's Green Business Fund, a state-level sustainability–technology program, is evaluated in terms of net economic surplus. To conduct this evaluation, this paper develops and implements an economic model from which values of producer and consumer surplus can be measured. Data limitations drive modeling choices, namely the model must be applicable when the researcher is unable to decompose revenues into separate prices and quantities. The method used in this paper is an extension of one previously used to examine SBIR programs facing similar data limitations. An additional facet of the modeling method is a specification such that the presence of an existing technology can also be taken into account. This allows the evaluation to focus only on newly created surplus. The findings from this evaluation suggest that the Green Business Fund has resulted in a positive net social surplus and, when imposing an elasticity of demand drawn from the literature on other sustainability-based technologies, a benefit-to-cost ratio of above 2.     

Adolescent premarital childbearing: do economic incentives matter?

This paper develops and tests a three-stage nested logistic model of teenage childbearing that is influenced by economic incentives and costs created by US public policy. The modeling of teenage childbearing involves becoming pregnant, the choice to have an abortion or to bear the child, and the choice to bear the child premaritally or maritally. Data were obtained from a sample of 1718 Black and White women aged 14-16 years in 1979 from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. In 1990, the birth rate among unmarried youth was 29.5/1000 unmarried White women vs. 110.1/1000 unmarried Black women. In the sample, the pregnancy rate was 24% among White teenagers and 48% among Black teenagers. Miscarriages or stillbirths occurred among 11% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. Abortions were performed for 37% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. An incentive variable is the welfare guarantee. Cost variables include the cost of obtaining an abortion and the cost of obtaining contraceptive services and supplies. Access to family planning services is also accounted for in the model. Findings indicate that welfare, abortion, and family planning policy variables have a racially specific impact. For White teenagers, these variables have significant effects on pregnancy outcomes. For Black teenagers, the insignificance may reflect differences in sample size or important unmeasured racial differences in factors that influence fertility and marital behavior. The authors suggest that the rational choice perspective does not adequately explain premarital childbearing. It is also suggested that the specification of the variables on abortion, family planning, and adolescent sexual behavior may be fundamentally different and reflect differences in state attitudes and social customs. Only if the policy variables really change the costs of different pregnancy outcomes will changes in social policy change individual adolescent behavior. The authors state that focusing on only economic incentives did not rule out other influences on premarital childbearing.     

Trade Imbalance and Domestic Market Competition Policy

This study investigates the effect of a country's suppression of competition in its market for nontradables. It assumes that the initial equilibrium is stationary and demonstrates that if competition is suppressed in a small country, the country's trade surplus increases in the short run. In the large country case, the same change creates an excess demand for future tradables and affects the relative price between present and future tradables. Using a two‐country model, the study shows that this price change redistributes real wealth from the country with a trade deficit to the country with a trade surplus.     

The implicit welfare weights used when maximizing aggregate surplus

Aggregate consumer and producer surplus is a special type of social welfare function. In this paper, we investigate how individual welfare weights and how the social marginal utility of an increase in an individual's income behave if one uses aggregate surplus as a measure of social welfare. Our conclusion is that aggregate surplus is an ethically unacceptable measure of social welfare.I am grateful to B. De Borger and to an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this paper. Of course, all remaining errors are mine.     

中国长期煤炭需求:影响与政策选择

本文采用协整技术研究中国煤炭需求的长期均衡关系,估计出中国煤炭需求的长期收入弹性、价格弹性、结构弹性以及运输成本弹性;预测未来长期煤炭需求并分析其对环境、煤炭供给和煤炭价格的影响;模拟解释变量不同增长率下煤炭需求的演变并给出政策选择。中国高速经济增长是煤炭需求增长的主要原因。GDP是引导煤炭需求的原因,但煤炭需求不是引导GDP增长的原因,这也说明了将GDP作为解释变量的合理性。变量模拟得出的政策选择是工业结构的调整,即便是微调,也会对煤炭需求有很大的抑制作用;煤炭出厂价格的变动对煤炭需求变动的影响不太大,但煤炭需求对运输成本相当敏感,因而煤炭的最终价格对煤炭需求影响很大。     

Consumers' Surplus As an Exact and Superlative Cardinal Welfare Indicator

This article shows that the Bennet-Bowley consumer surplus measure is an exact measure of Allais' disposable surplus if the consumer's utility function is of the translation-homothetic generalized quadratic form. The Bennet-Bowley consumer surplus measure, therefore, is a superlative cardinal welfare measure for the entire class of translation homothetic preferences. Because the exactness results in this article apply for cardinal welfare measures, they can be meaningfully aggregated across consumers to make aggregate welfare comparisons.     

EFFECTS OF PRICE AND AVAILABILITY ON ABORTION DEMAND

Over 1.5 million legal abortions were performed in the United States in 1988. State-level regulation affecting the price or availability of abortion services may expand given recent Supreme Court decisions. This paper uses state-level data pooled over time to estimate abortion demand. Using single cross-sections of state data, past studies find abortion demand per 1,000 pregnancies to be price inelastic and find income elasticity to be positive and significant. The analysis here shows that price elasticity estimates in a single cross-section are sensitive to the choice of state characteristics used to control for "abortion attitudes" within a state. Ajixed-efects model design with pooled data gives more robust abortion demand price elasticity estimates. The results suggest that any new state regulations that increase the costs of obtaining abortions will reduce abortion use and increase unintended fertility .     

The welfare impact of policy interventions in the foodgrain markets in Bangladesh

The paper attempts to estimate the welfare impact of different policy interventions in the foodgrain markets in Bangladesh using an economic surplus approach. Over the period of analysis, 1980–2003, the loss in consumer surplus exceeded the gain in producer surplus plus the gain in government revenue. Therefore, the interventions resulted in a deadweight welfare loss for society. In contrast, in the policy of liberalization, the gain in consumer surplus and in government revenue is larger than the loss in producer surplus, producing a net welfare gain to society.     

A Modest Proposal for a Two‐Sided Market Clearing Institution under Asymmetric Supply Constraints with Skewed Pricing: The Market for Adoption and Abortion in the United States

This paper presents a theoretical model matching the potential supply of terminated pregnancies with the total demand for children within certain modeling constraints. First, the demand and supply of pregnancies should be studied within the theoretical framework of a market with economic incentives. Second, a theoretical model for the demand for abortion must incorporate the total market for children, which implies the market for pregnancy, abortion, and adoption. Third, there exist in the overall market for procreative goods and services certain unique characteristics that need to be carefully considered. Producers and suppliers within the procreative goods and services market have radically different price and cost elasticity functions and unique production asymmetries that create a potential net benefit for buyer and seller alike. The market for abortion and adoption, while seemingly related and similar, suffer from a fundamental disconnect, preventing a simple exchange of goods and services: abortion implies potential supply that does not flow to potential consumersthose seeking to adopt. Studying this market inefficiency will benefit from a two‐sided market analysis used in situations where an intermediary business must attract both producers and suppliers. There are two key findings. First, I find that the producer decision to supply the good depends primarily on exogenous preference formation and not on consumer‐provided incentives. Second, I find that the market would benefit from legal framework for a market clearing institution using the market for real estate as the blueprint.     

A proposal for more sophisticated normative principles in introductory economics

Introductory textbooks teach a simple normative story about the importance of maximizing economic surplus that supports common policy claims. There is little defense of the claim that maximizing surplus is normatively important, which is not obvious to non-economists. Difficulties with the claim that society should maximize surplus are generally not addressed. Economists are thus frequently criticized by non-economists for having a poor moral foundation for our normative claims. We should tell a more sophisticated normative story that justifies the moral importance of surplus, but acknowledges that other moral values may conflict with generating surplus and that distribution is not always separable from efficiency. This would allow students to make more compelling arguments in favor of normative positions they accept, regardless of the values they hold.     

Human development and alcohol abuse in adolescence

This article gives some exploratory results from estimating a consumer surplus type equation which features a number of economic and demographic variables as regressors. We calculate an income elasticity for the maximum surplus that individuals would ever perceive themselves to be getting by being allowed to buy at a set price. The results also show that those who attend the cinema are significantly less inclined to generate a surplus in flexible price events markets whilst young adults offer to pay quite a large amount more for their heavily desired entertainment. This suggests that part of the burden of a shift in ticket pricing methods may be borne by the parents of young adults.