“五普”至“六普”期间中国城镇人口的增长构成

利用2000年和2010年的全国人口普查资料、2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料以及国家统计局公布的相关人口数据,对第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查期间中国城镇人口的增长构成进行了估算。在"五普"至"六普"期间中国城镇人口的增长构成发生了很大的变化,具体表现在人口从农村向城镇的迁移已成为中国城镇人口增长的主要来源。在面临中国城镇人口增长模式发生深刻变革的时候,中国亟需解决的问题是从政策和制度层面为从农村转移到城镇的人口的就业、住房、医疗、教育和社会保障等创造良好的条件,使他们在城镇里安居乐业,从而巩固人口迁移对中国城市化的贡献,使中国的城市化顺利发展。     

中国分城镇乡村人口平均预期寿命探析

利用人口普查和人口调查资料,通过生命表的Logit模型估计了2009年全国城镇乡村的人口平均预期寿命,给出了部分普查年份按城乡分年龄性别的预期寿命。分析了近30年来中国平均预期寿命的变化特点,并同发达国家进行了对比分析。其结果可反映中国平均预期寿命的增长趋势,对未来人口发展预测也有一定的参考价值。     

Swedish economic growth and education since 1800

Abstract.  The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it builds and makes use of long-run data from Sweden on formal education that have never been used to date. Second, it provides a quantitative application of recent theoretical work on the link between demographic changes and economic growth through their effect on education. It concludes that changes in longevity may account for as much as 20% of the observed rise in education over the period from 1800–2000 via a horizon effect, but have little impact on income growth over the period. On the contrary, changes in population density and composition are central, mainly thanks to their effect on productivity. Most income growth over this period would not have materialized if demographic variables had stayed constant since 1800.     

多维人口结构变动的交互经济影响——基于老龄化、城镇化和市民化视角的考察

人口年龄结构老龄化、 城乡结构城镇化与户籍结构市民化是中国人口结构变动的三大趋势特征, 并将对中国经济增长产生多重冲击与交互影响. 考察人口多个维度结构变动对经济的综合影响, 对更好地把握人口老龄化背景下的人口经济关系具有重要的理论及现实意义. 本文基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据对这种交互影响进行了考察. 结果表明, 人口老龄化、城镇化和市民化趋势会对经济增长分别产生负面、 正向以及U型影响. 从交互影响看, 随着人口城镇化与市民化进程的推进, 将有效缓解人口老龄化对经济增长带来的负面影响, 而老龄化程度的加剧会弱化城镇化与市民化对经济增长的正向影响, 市民化则有助于改善城镇化对经济增长的正面影响. 这表明在人口老龄化过程中, 尽早以市民化助推城镇化是实现经济较快增长的有效途径.     

农村—城市移民率的变动与中国城市化的关系

在我国的经济发展过程中,城市化水平不断提高,并伴随有大量的农村人口向城市转移。本文通过构建一个理论分析框架,在城市化水平与农村—城市移民率的变动之间建立一个模型,发现在农村—城市移民率和城市化水平、农村人口与总人口自然增长率之间存在着联系。通过城市化数据分析我国的农村—城市移民率的变化情况,并应用城市化的logistic方程对城市化水平以及农村—城市移民率进行进一步的估计,最后预测它们未来的发展趋势。     

Alternate signs of life: The growth of biotechnology industries in Shanghai and Bangalore

This paper explores the emergence of biotechnology centers in Shanghai and Bangalore by comparing their development to best practices in the literature for biotechnology cluster growth and development. Interviews with over fifty biotech companies and related institutions in China and India indicate that these regions are developing alternate models of low cost manufacturing and services that build on the current local base of knowledge and expertise. The ability to convert research into successful commercial activity was identified in both regions. The strong research capacity, private sector funding, and entrepreneurial environment deemed critical best practices were limited. New growth theory is used to explain these alternate approaches to technological and social change.     

扩大内需的人口经济学:理论与实证

本文梳理了人口与内需关系的相关理论,构建了扩大内需人口经济学的初步框架。本文利用国家统计局和世界银行提供的相关数据,基于中外经验,对人口增长、人口年龄和城乡结构变化的内需效应进行了实证分析。本文的结论是,人口增长不会破坏扩大内需,人口年龄和城乡结构的急剧变化对低消费率和高投资率有较强的解释力。实现从以物为本到以人为本、由严格控制人口增长向允许人口适度增长的转变,应成为扩大内需的重大战略。     

Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China

The paper tests the impact of demographic change on China's economic growth by using 1983–2008 provincial panel data. The deducted result of the theoretical model shows that the share of working-age population is positively correlated with economic growth, whereas birth rate has an adverse impact. Empirical results substantiate the finding. Due to the decrease of birth rate and the increase of the share of the working-age population, China's average annual per capita GDP growth rate increased 1.19 and 0.73 percentage points during the sample period. The contribution of these two demographic changes contributed to 19.5% of the economic growth together.     

城市密集区人口变动研究——以长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和京津唐地区为例

利用第三、四和五次全国人口普查资料,对长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和京津唐地区人口增长和空间分布的变化过程进行分析.研究表明,自1980年代以来,各城市密集区人口增长速度加快,人口规模不断扩大;空间分布变化幅度大,总的趋势是集中化、不均衡化;人口变动状况具有阶段性差异;外来人口的迁移流入是人口变动的主导因素.在此基础上,探讨了城市密集区发展过程中的人口演化趋势以及人口变动规律,其结论是:城市密集区人口变动遵循逻辑斯蒂增长规律、波动推进规律、圈层扩散与等级扩散规律,人口增长将由高速到低速,人口分布将由集中化迈向相对地均衡化.     

经济发展与人口变化的互动关系

控制人口实行计划生育是我国一项基本国策。如何更有效地控制人口的增长 ?本文就经济发展对人口再生产所引发的一系列变化 ,论述其内在的必然联系 ,并针对在现阶段所存在的人口问题提出相应的解决措施。     

中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。     

The economic implications of learning-by-doing for population size and growth

This paper criticizes Arrow's research on learning-by-doing. The authors use a model like Arrow's to conclude that population growth--and, even more important, population size--may have positive effects on economic growth through positive effects on the rate of technical progress, on reasonable assumptions about the likely capital-output ratios with different demographic structures, but negative effects with other capital-output ratio difference. In a comparison of 2 worlds that have different population sizes, but that are otherwise alike including their capital-labor ratios and the initial per worker outputs, the larger world will come to have higher per worker output because of learning-by-doing. This conclusion is unlike the conclusion implicit in Arrow's model of learning-by-doing because Arrow looked at steady-state rates of growth rather than changes in the level of income from the starting point. Arrow's analysis also is confused by using the capital stock rather than cumulative output as the measure of experience, though output is the variable used in the empirical analyses that are the basis of this line of work.     

The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999

We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income contributed to the fertility transition. The fertility reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcompensate the positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These results are robust to alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, the sample period, the inclusion of education as an explanatory variable, and the use of different data sets. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility changes are both cause and consequence of economic development.     

Employment fluctuations and dynamics of the aggregate average wage in Poland, 1996–20031

The aggregate average wage is often used as an indicator of economic performance and welfare, and as such often serves as a benchmark for changes in the generosity of public transfers and for wage negotiations. Yet if economies experience a high degree of (non‐random) fluctuation in employment, the composition of the employed population will have a considerable effect on the computed average. In this paper we demonstrate the extent of this problem using data for Poland for the period 1996–2003. During these years the employment rate in Poland fell from 51.2 percent to 44.2 percent and most of this fall occurred between the end of 1998 and the end of 2002. We show that about a quarter of the growth in the average wage during this period could be attributed purely to changes in employment.     

Growth and poverty in developing countries

Despite the developing countries' impressive aggregate growth of the past 25 years, its benefits have only reached the poor to a very limited degree. Not only have the poorest countries grown relatively slowly, but growth processes are such that within most developing countries, the incomes of the poor increase much less than the average. Although many policies have been proposed to counter these trends, little has been done to estimate the possibilities for significantly reducing world poverty within a reasonable period. This paper develops a quantitative framework to project levels of poverty under different assumptions about GNP growth population growth and changes in income distribution. Although the interactions among development processes and policy instruments are not modelled in any detail, the results serve to clarify the nature of the problem. The policy simulations demonstrate that the elimination of absolute poverty by the end of this century is a highly unlikely prospect; even to achieve a substantial reduction will require a combination of policies designed to accelerate the growth of poor countries, to distribute the benefits of growth more equitably, and to reduce population increase.     

Youth dependency and total factor productivity

Recent literature shows empirical support for an effect of demographic age structure on economic growth. This literature does not give attention to the possibility that age structure might also have an effect on total factor productivity. Much of the recent literature on economic growth has stressed that an understanding of cross-country differences in output per worker is needed. That literature argues that the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker is differences in total factor productivity. This paper finds empirical evidence in cross-country data for the thesis that the youth dependency ratio (the population below working age divided by the population of working age) reduces ‘residual’ growth, which measures total factor productivity growth. For this reason, the paper demonstrates that age structure has an effect on the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker.     

Why has Income Inequality in Germany Increased From 2002 to 2011? A Behavioral Microsimulation Decomposition

This paper proposes a method to decompose changes in income inequality into the contributions of policy changes, wage rate changes, and population changes while considering labor supply reactions. Using data from the Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP), this method is applied to decompose the increase in income inequality in Germany from 2002 to 2011, a period that saw tax reductions and a controversial overhaul of the transfer system. The simulations show that tax and transfer reforms have had an inequality‐reducing effect as measured by the mean log deviation and the Gini coefficient. For the Gini, these effects are offset by labor supply reactions. In contrast, policy changes explain part of the increase in the ratio between the 90th and the 50th income percentiles. Changes in wage rates have led to a decrease in income inequality. Thus, the increase in inequality was due to changes in the population.     

1990-2013年国际人口迁移特征、机制及影响研究

在全球化背景下国际人口迁移呈持续增长态势。利用"2013年全球国际人口迁移趋势"和"2013年经合组织国家国际人口迁移展望"数据,分析1990-2013年国际人口迁移的规模、流向、结构等的变动趋势及区域特征,揭示国际人口迁移的主要动力机制,包括发达国家和发展中国家之间经济社会发展的巨大差距、经济全球化、世界经济政治格局变动、国际移民政策调整和人口规模等,以及国际人口迁移对迁入国和迁出国经济发展、劳动就业、财政收支、人口增长等方面产生的影响。     

Interest Rates and Wage Indexation

The growth effects of European economic and monetary intergration and the progress of

regional convergence across Europe depend on whether economic in Europe is consistent with a neoclassical or an endogenous growth model. Using annual data from the 1950-1992 period for each of 20 European economies, the paper finds that steady-state real growth rates are generally unaffected by changes in the investment rate, population growth, and government consumption, evidence consistent with neoclassical growth theories. This Strengthens the likelihood of regional (perhaps conditional) convergence, and suggests that the effects of greater monetary and economic unification will be in terms of higher incomes per capita, but not in terms of permanently higher growth rates.[O40,F43]     

Simulating the spatial distribution of population and emissions to 2100

Urbanization and economic development have important implications for many environmental processes including global climate change. Although there is evidence that urbanization depends endogenously on economic variables, long-term forecasts of the spatial distribution of population are often made exogenously and independent of economic conditions. It is common for research concerning long-run projections of global environmental change to use population density as the primary means to spatially distribute emissions projections. However, researchers typically utilize year 1990 cross-sectional population data to distribute their emissions projections for both the short- and long-term, without projecting any changes in population density. Thus, a beta distribution for individual countries/regions is estimated to describe the geographical distribution of population using a one-degree-by-one-degree latitude–longitude global population data set. Cross-sectional country/regional data are then used to estimate an empirical relationship between parameters of the beta distribution and macroeconomic variables as they vary among countries/regions. This conditional beta distribution allows the simulation of a changing distribution of population, including the growth of urban areas, driven by economic forecasts until the year 2100.