An Econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness

This paper finds that one can econometrically ascertain the determinants of default to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) through panel logit analysis. Creditworthiness is found to be determined by political and external factors in addition to economic variables. Default to the IBRD is seen to fall into a graduated hierarchy of default, whereby default occurs first to Paris Club and Commercial Bank creditors, with subsequent default to the IBRD being triggered by a high proportion of IBRD and short-term debt in the portfolio and other economic and political factors.     

Economic Performance and Leadership Accountability: An Econometric Analysis

Logit models of leadership duration test whether different agents are responsible for constitutional and unconstitutional transfers of power. Lagged values of per capita real investment have a significantly negative impact on unconstitutional transitions. This suggests that the elites of less developed countries determine the timing of unconstitutional transfers as they are the ones with investment capabilities. Lagged values of per capita real consumption are associated with the well-being of an average citizen. However, consumption exerts an unexpected positive influence on constitutional transitions when political regime differences are not taken into account. This significant effect disappears with the inclusion of parliamentary and presidential regime dummies.     

An Econometric Analysis of Global Waste Paper Recovery and Utilization

The main purpose of this paper is to provide aneconometric analysis of the most importantdeterminants of inter-country differences inwaste paper recovery and utilization rates. Byemploying pooled time series and cross-sectiondata over 49 countries worldwide and sevenyears, the paper concludes that relative wastepaper recovery and use depend largely onlong-standing economic factors such aspopulation intensity and competitiveness in theworld market for paper and board products. Wealso find evidence that supports the conjecturethat rich countries tend to recover relativelymore waste paper than is the case in low-incomecountries, reflecting the higher demand forwaste management and environmental policies inmore developed economies. As recovery andutilization rates are determined by economicand demographic characteristics the degree ofpolicy flexibility in affecting these rates maybe limited. In particular, an ambitiousutilization rate target may be very costly toenforce as it can conflict with existing tradepatterns of paper and board products as well aswith other environmental goals. Additionalpolicy targets may therefore be desirable,especially since paper recycling is motivatedprimarily by environmental concerns and seldomis a benign activity in itself.     

影响我国农民收入因素的计量分析

文章基于1986年-2009年时间序列数据,利用主成分分析的方法,在对影响农民收入因素分类的基础上,选取了影响农民收入的17个代表性指标,在损失较少信息的前提下,将之提取为3个主成分,并实证检验了农民收入与这三个主成分之间的协整关系。研究发现：农村劳动力转移、国家财政支农支出、农村物质资本投资及农民受教育程度等因素对农民增收有较大的正向作用;农业产业结构及三大产业结构变化对农民增收有较大的负向作用。最后,基于得出的实证结论,提出促进我国农民增收的财税政策建议。     

How German Labor Courts Decide: An Econometric Case Study

Abstract. Courts are an important element in the institutional framework of labor markets, often determining the degree of employment protection. German labor courts provide a vivid example in this regard. However, we know relatively little about court behavior. A unique dataset on German labor court verdicts reveals that social and other criteria like employee characteristics, the type of job, local labor market conditions and court composition influence court decisions. At least as striking is that workers' chances to win depend on where and when their cases are filed. This generates considerable ex ante uncertainty about outcomes.     

基于计量分析的乌鲁木齐可持续发展水平评价

可持续发展已成为当今世界发展的共识.乌鲁木齐要充分发挥在新疆的＂引擎＂作用,就要求其发展具有可持续性.可持续发展的定量评价是实现可持续发展所要研究的关键问题之一.乌鲁木齐可持续发展水平自西部大开发以来呈逐年增长的趋势,且社会可持续发展是乌鲁木齐可持续发展的第一目标.同时,乌鲁木齐可持续发展水平虽总体上呈上升趋势,但也存在较大反复.     

An Econometric Analysis of Risk in Himachal’s Apple Production

This paper examines the sources of variability of apple production in Himachal Pradesh. Utilizing variance decomposition procedures, it shows that the changes over time in the average and variance of production are due largely to changes in the corresponding measures for acreage rather than yield. The decrease in the variance of real revenue per hectare over time is also decomposed to reveal that the increase in price/yield covariance is the largest contributor to the change in revenue variance. Accurate measurements of the sources of increased variability can help target policies to reduce or offset the effects of instability.

     

中国城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析

为探讨我国城市化与经济增长之间的相互作用和相互影响,文章依据1978~2004年的时序数据,利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法,对城市化水平与经济增长的关系进行动态计量分析。结果发现,经济增长是城市化水平提高的格兰杰原因,经济增长对城市化产生较大的正向冲击效应,而城市化对经济增长的作用强度不大;城市化水平受人均GDP影响的效应逐步增强,受自身影响的效应不断减弱,而人均GDP受自身波动影响的效应不断上升,受城市化水平影响的强度逐步下降。对我国城市化与经济增长关系的深入认识,有利于各级政府在推动城市化和促进经济增长的过程中采取合理对策,避免走入误区。     

The Spanish Tomato Export Sector of the Almeria Region: An Econometric Approach

This article analyzes the current situation of the tomato export sector of Almeria, the principal exporting province of Spain. First, a critical view is presented relating to the internal organization of this sector; the most important problem observed is the marketing system which is atomized, heterogeneous and significantly difficult for raising funds from the individual partners in order to begin innovative projects. Second, to establish whether this area is losing market share, the sector is compared to the other principal tomato suppliers of the European Union (the Netherlands, Morocco, and other areas of Spain). The analysis shows Almeria has defended its market share in the most recent years. Finally, the most influential variables in the commercial process are analyzed by a tomato export model that shows there are substitution effects of the Almerian tomato for products from others origins, mostly the Netherlands.

差距、收敛与投资:一个西部开发的计量模型

在给人以冲动感的西部大开发中,审慎地考察东西差距形成的原因是有必要的,东西差距不存在收敛性,在要素不能自由流动的制度变迁时期差距是难以走向收敛的实证表明东西部拉大的差距并不仅是由于投资的效率差异,制度与知识的”先发优势“与”累积效应“同样重要。     

中美CPI传导机制和动态关系的计量分析

应用时间序列分析方法对2000年1月到2011年1月间我国与美国CPI传导机制与动态关系进行了计量分析。结果表明中美两国的CPI之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,美国CPI对我国CPI的长期弹性为0.5116;美国CPI对我国CPI的影响较大,并存在3个月的滞后期,但6个月后,中美CPI之间将产生明显的相互影响。因此,我国在进行CPI管理过程中,应加强对与我国经贸往来密切的国家或地区的CPI的监控,并及时采取调控措施,避免我国物价受境外物价波动的严重冲击。     

An Econometric Study of the Demand for Bottled,Canned and Bulk Beer*

This paper uses the absolute price version of the differential demand model to examine substitution possibilities for the consumption of beer in different containers in the period 1968–69 to 1983–84. The results indicate that the effect of beer packaging in beer consumption is significant. The same beer in different containers can be treated as quite different products The conditional substitution between bottled beer and canned beer is the highest among the beers. However, due to a strong ‘income effect’, the unconditional substitution between them is lower than that between bottled beer and bulk beer.     

企业管理变革对企业信用绩效管理的影响

随着人类社会从工业社会迈向信息和知识社会,经济的知识化、全球化和网络化正推动企业组织的管理变革。本文通过企业管理变革的特征与趋势的探讨,研究了企业管理变革对企业信用绩效管理可能产生深远的影响。     

Econometric policy evaluation and expectations

Recently large-scale econometric models have been criticized as inappropriate tools for policy evaluation. One critical point often mentioned is the way expectations are formed. This paper shows that the way the process of expectations formation is considered does not play a crucial role. Instead, the ability to model agents' reactions to changes in policy is the essence of the critique. As long as government behaviour is sufficiently accessible in the model, applied econometrics may still use large-scale systems for which rational expectations solutions would be troublesome if not impossible to reach.     

Econometric models with normal polychotomous selectivity

The polychotomous extension of the selectivity model of Heckman (1976) is derived. Unlike similar models proposed by Hay (1980) and Lee (1983), this generalization maintains the assumption of joint normality among the errors. In light of recent advances in the theory and estimation of the multinomial probit model, the present derivation is offered as an important first step toward the true generalization of the Heckman estimator.     

基于空间的省际农地非农化驱动因素研究

运用空间面板模型,选取我国31个省市自治区1999—2008年农地非农化及其影响因素的数据构建不同的计量模型。运用Moran’sI指数测度出我国农地非农化与其影响因素作用关系的空间效应为一种趋同效应,省际间农地非农化存在正的空间相关关系。根据空间滞后模型和空间误差模型估计结果,通过对比得出,地区总人口、城镇人均可支配收入、地方政府收益、城市化水平、耕地资源禀赋对农地非农化存在显著的正向驱动作用,农村居民人均纯收入与农地非农化间存在负相关关系,农地保护政策对农地非农化的控制效果并不明显。