Managing food price risks and instability in a liberalizing market environment: Overview and policy options

Managing food price risks and instability is a major challenge in the midst of ongoing food market reforms. Key findings from the papers in this special volume revolve around five broad areas: (i) the sources and magnitudes of food price instability in different country contexts; (ii) the economic and social costs stemming from price instability; (iii) the lessons from food market reforms to date; (iv) the design of policy reforms in ways that promote efficient and stable market development and protect the interests of the poor; and (v) potential policy responses to food price instability in a liberalizing market environment.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

Dynamics of food policy formulation in the USA

Examination of the dynamics of food policy formulation in the USA reveals a series of intriguing contrasts. As an example of pluralist decision making, it is unequalled in the sheer number and variety of actors and interests which it encompasses. This article analyses four principal generic elements of the food policy process: its ideological underpinnings; its policy settings; its substantive components; and, its foreign-domestic linkages. The profound changes which have occurred in the Washington political climate are also considered in terms of their implications for food-related policies in both the domestic and international arenas.     

World food prospects to the year 2000

Declining rates of growth are indicated for total food demand as well as import demand. Real world prices are likely to continue on their downward trend. Increased attention to agricultural development will help ensure that average food consumption levels will rise in all developing regions except Sub- Saharan Africa. Market instability remains a problem but developing countries are now better protected against it. The dark side of the picture: chronic undernutrition among the poorest of the poor is not likely to be eradicated in this century.     

Trade and food policy: Case studies from three Pacific Island countries

There is growing interest in the use of trade policy to create a healthier food supply. Eighty percent of chronic disease deaths occur in low and middle income countries, and a responsive food policy is an absolute necessity. In this paper we analysed three trade-related food policy initiatives to reduce the supply of fatty meat in the Pacific, in order to help public health workers understand how to effect policy change in sectors beyond the health portfolio. We found that policy uptake and implementation were easier with advocacy, tailoring the policy to the political context, the selection of policy tools that align with Government priorities (e.g. trade commitments) – ideally tools that are already used by trade policy makers in other contexts – and a broad justification for the policy initiative. Barriers to policy success included a focus only on health concerns (not taking into account policy issues of other sectors), limited engagement from other sectors in proposing and developing these cross-sectoral policies, and lack of a clear enforcement mechanism.     

The political ideology of food

Using data from a survey of over 700 Americans, we sought to measure and investigate the nature of citizen’s political ideologies in relation to food. Results reveal that a majority of respondents can be classified as “food statists,” desiring more government action in the realm food and agricultural relative to the status quo. People’s ideologies with regard to food were multidimensional, falling along lines related to food health and quality, food safety, and farm subsidies. Respondents were most in favor of additional government action related to food safety. Food ideology was related to conventional measures of political ideology with, for example, more liberal respondents desiring more government involvement in food than more conservative respondents, but the relationship was far from determinative, suggesting food ideology represents a unique construct in its own right.     

Changing food patterns in West Africa: Implications for policy research

West African consumption of wheat and rice is growing rapidly despite technological barriers to production of these cereals in the region. Soaring imports are of particular concern in view of likely consumption trends. Maize imports are also growing rapidly, as is production in the more humid countries, to the detriment of sorghum. The latter is performing relatively better in the drier countries. Possible factors underlying consumption shifts are discussed, including price policies at variance with stated objectives. Possible policies to slow down these shifts are discussed, along with research requirements for effective diagnosis and implementation.     

Modelling of potential food policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga and their impacts on noncommunicable disease mortality

Background

To compare the likely costs and benefits of a range of potential policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga targeted at diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in order to support more evidence-based decision-making.

Method

A relatively simple and quick macro-simulation methodology was developed. Logic models were developed by local stakeholders and used to identify costs and dietary impacts of policy changes. Costs were confined to government costs, and excluded cost offsets. The best available evidence was combined with local data to model impacts on deaths from noncommunicable diseases over the lifetime of the target population. Given that the modelling necessarily entailed assumptions to compensate for gaps in data and evidence, use was made of probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

Results

Costs of implementing policy changes were generally low, with the exception of some requiring additional long-term staffing or construction activities. The most effective policy options in Fiji and Tonga targeted access to local produce and high-fat meats respectively, and were estimated to avert approximately 3% of diet-related NCD deaths in each population. Many policies had substantially lower benefits. Cost-effectiveness was higher for the low-cost policies. Similar policies produced markedly different results in the two countries.

Conclusion

Despite the crudeness of the method, the consistent modelling approach used across all the options, allowed reasonable comparisons to be made between the potential policy costs and impacts. This type of modelling can be used to support more evidence-based and informed decision-making about policy interventions and facilitate greater use of policy to achieve a reduction in NCDs.     

Urban food policies in German city regions: An overview of key players and policy instruments

Although food is an emerging topic on municipal policy and planning agendas, a systematic examination of policy development, its implementation and the instruments used at the urban level is lacking. This study was carried out with the aim of gaining new insights into the prevalence of certain food policy instruments and capacity of policy action. In order to do so, we developed an analytical framework to investigate urban policy and planning approaches related to food issues and applied it in ten large German cities. First, we identified different actor groups and analysed their role in urban food policy (level of involvement in municipal food projects). We then studied the variety of policy and planning instruments and their application for different elements in the food system. For the empirical study, we employed a case study approach and utilised data gathering methods of qualitative research, i.e. expert interviews and document analysis. Our empirical findings in the studied cities reveal that urban food policy activities are still very fragmented and often based on individual initiatives within the administration. Integrated urban food policies and their implementation through urban food strategies are still an exception in major cities in Germany. We found that municipal actors follow mainly sectoral approaches, using a wide array of steering instruments, i.e. informational instruments and public procurement policies. However, their capacities for policy implementation remain limited due to missing financial and staffing resources. Accordingly, the potential the urban food system offers for sustainable development through multifunctionality and sectoral integration, is still underexploited.The systematic approach developed in this study may contribute to a better understanding of different policy approaches taken. The applied typology of policy instruments might also be useful for identifying effective ways to implement urban food strategies, to understand mismatches between instruments and different policy domains, levels and administrative units, e.g. at the urban-rural interface, and to design of new policy instruments.     

Assessment of energy intake: Estimates of food supply v measurement of food consumption

National consumption indicators are frequently compiled using food supply estimates in the absence of reliable household or individual intake data. The authors examine the relationship between these three levels of information and in particular, the potential ‘losses’ of energy in the food system, comparing data from different countries and over time. They demonstrate the unreliability of supply estimates as proxy indicators of consumption and question their current usage in statements about global hunger and the links between health and food intake.     

Social imaginary and dilemmas of policy practice: The food safety arena in Japan

Through the string of food safety scares that has rocked Japanese society since the early 2000s, conflicts between the traditional notion of socially acceptable risk and the idea of a science-based risk analysis approach have surfaced in the food safety arena. Elites, including government officials and those members of scientific communities who support the science-based risk analysis approach, have become responsible for communicating seemingly contradictory ideas such as “food in Japan is safe” and “there is no such thing as zero risk with food.” This communication logjam has resulted in confusion and created public distrust of both government and scientific experts. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to examine the struggles and challenges faced by government officials in explaining and practicing policies that pertain to highly controversial food safety issues. The primary data used for illuminating the discourses is the official minutes of governmental committees including the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Committee and the Consumer Commission.     

Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis

Although optimal monetary policy stabilizes food inflation theoretically, empirical studies remain limited not only in the context of volumes and the estimation approaches, but are focused on selected advanced and emerging countries to the neglect of Africa where poverty and dominance of food in the consumption basket are more pronounced. We provide empirical evidence in the context of South Africa using quantile regressions. Rising food prices are destabilized even further by restrictive monetary policy; a finding that has ramifications for inflation targeting, especially given that a quarter of the country’s population is food poor.     

Food aid,domestic policy and food security: Contrasting experiences from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Food aid, both for short-term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium-term food “deficits”, is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries. This study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid (India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Zambia) regarding food production, trade, markets, consumption and safety nets, as well as the policy responses to food emergencies. The widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure, is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers, and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security. However, food aid is not the only, or in many cases, the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity. In many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in-kind.     

The economics and nutritional impacts of food assistance policies and programs

Recent evidence on malnutrition and poverty raise important questions on the role of food assistance policies and programs. In this review article, we examine evidence on the economic and nutritional impacts of international food assistance programs (FAPs) and policies. The returns on investments in FAPs are, on average, high but depend considerably on the targeting and cost structures as well as on food quality and role of complementary activities. We disaggregate findings into four classes of recipients. Returns to FAPs are highest for children under two. But, FAPs oriented towards early childhood interventions are less well funded than are interventions aimed at school-age children or at the broader, largely adult population even though available evidence indicates that these latter classes of interventions offer considerably lower average returns in economic, health, and nutrition terms. Nonetheless, FAP effectiveness in achieving any of several objectives varies with a range of key factors, including targeting, additionality, seasonality, timeliness, incentive effects, social acceptability and political economy considerations.     

Disentangling the consensus frame of food security: The case of the EU Common Agricultural Policy reform debate

This article addresses which food security frames can be identified in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) post-2013 reform process, and which actors deploy particular food security frames. The concept of frames refers to relatively distinct and coherent sets of meaning attributed to a concept, such as food security. The article shows that in the European Union (EU) food security is a consensus frame which can be broken down in six conflicting and overlapping sub-frames and which has complicated the debates about the future of the CAP. We demonstrate that during the CAP-reform debates of 2009–2012 a variety of food security arguments were deployed by a broad range of stakeholders, who attached different meanings and made different claims about the relationship between the CAP and food security. Inductive frame analysis reveals that the consensus frame of food security can be broken down into six conflicting and overlapping sub-frames: (1) the productionist frame, (2) the environmental frame, (3) the development frame, (4) the free trade frame, (5) the regional frame, and (6) the food sovereignty frame. Each of these frames was invoked by a specific group of stakeholders, whereby the productionist and environmental frames were deployed most often. The European Commission, meanwhile, invoked various frames at the same time in its communications. As a result of these various framings of the relationship between the CAP and food security, a clear political vision on this relationship is lacking. We conclude that politicians and policymakers may need to develop a coherent vision on what food security entails, and on how the CAP could contribute to both European and global food security.     

Towards regional food security in southern Africa: a (new) policy framework for the agricultural sector

In the southern African Region (SAR) large populations, mainly concentrated in rural areas, face food insecurity and poverty. Food insecurity is intensified by adverse weather conditions and droughts which impact negatively on farm level food production throughout the region. Agriculture constitutes an important economic sector in the majority of countries in the region. This is measured as share of agricultural value added to the GDP and as agriculture's share in employment. Based on these facts alone, it must be obvious that sustained agricultural performance will play a significant role in the improvement of food security and livelihoods in the region. However, food security is not only attained in rural areas and by the consumption of home produced food stuffs. Urbanisation is expected to increase dramatically over the next few decades and feeding the urban masses, at affordable prices, must be considered to be a high future priority for governments in the region. Food security must not be viewed as an agricultural issue per se. The drive to food self sufficiency through domestic agriculture production in many countries in the region did not enable these countries to feed their own population. Food security should rather be defined as the acquirement of sufficient and nutritious quantities of food (Sen, 1981, Poverty and Famines: An essay on Entitlement and Deprivation). An approach, whereby attention is given to the macro level availability of food, access to income streams as well as improved production capacity to acquire food at a household level and the utilisation of nutritious food, should therefore be guiding food security policies (SADC: FSTAU, 1997, A Strategic Framework for Food Security in the Region). This broader view emphasises household level poverty reduction, economic development and growth as important components of a food security strategy (World Food Summit, Rome, 1996). An important issue which therefore needs to be explored is whether agriculture does have the potential to contribute to economic processes, which will support broad based development and food security. This paper is intended to argue the importance of agricultural development for food security in the region and to develop a diverse policy framework to strengthen this new, more comprehensive role of agriculture in the region.     

Local food,food miles and carbon emissions: A comparison of farm shop and mass distribution approaches

This paper provides a critical commentary on the conception of food miles followed by an empirical application of food miles to two contrasting food distribution systems based on carbon emissions accounting within these systems. The comparison is between the carbon emissions resultant from operating a large-scale vegetable box system and those from a supply system where the customer travels to a local farm shop. The study is based on fuel and energy use data collected from one of the UK’s largest suppliers of organic produce. The findings suggest that if a customer drives a round-trip distance of more than 6.7 km in order to purchase their organic vegetables, their carbon emissions are likely to be greater than the emissions from the system of cold storage, packing, transport to a regional hub and final transport to customer’s doorstep used by large-scale vegetable box suppliers. Consequently some of the ideas behind localism in the food sector may need to be revisited.     

The evolution of food aid : Towards a development first regime

The purpose of food aid has evolved over the past 30 years, shifting from surplus disposal to a ‘development first’ regime. This shift was accelerated by the World Food Conference, but even 10 years after the conference it is yet to be completed. There are inherent tensions between the older and new design principles. The author proposes a more coherent set of governing principles and norms.     

A theory-based evaluation of food waste policy: Evidence from Italy

Italy recently reformed its food waste policy by introducing innovative measures, such as the possibility of donating food after the best-before date (BBD) and a significant simplification of the bureaucracy of donations. These measures are advocated by food waste specialists and are thought to increase donations almost automatically. The article performs a theory-based evaluation using the method of realist synthesis to investigate the two measures, test their implicit assumptions, and provide a more complete picture of how the policy works. The results highlight the marginal importance of bureaucratic procedures in the cost structure of donations, the diverse responses of different donors and food rescue organisations, and the importance of considering the capacity and preferences of charities when an increase in donations is expected. Further, the analysis uncovers severe reputational risks that limit both the supply of and demand for food past the BBD, despite legal provisions promoting its donation.