‘Weighting and Scoring’ in Theory and in Practice

Starting with the Treasury's Green Book definition of the ‘weighting and scoring’ technique in option appraisal, the authors resolve a challenging theoretical paradox and then look at the strength of the current bridge between theory and its practical implementation. Two case studies in which the technique is treated as ‘standard NHS practice’ are critically evaluated. The article concludes with suggestions for better implementation of such easily abused quantitative methods.     

Amplification and asymmetry in crashes and frenzies

We often observe disproportionate reactions to tangible information in large stock price movements. Moreover these movements feature an asymmetry: the number of crashes is more than that of frenzies in the S&P 500 index. This paper offers an explanation for these two characteristics of large movements in which hedging (portfolio insurance) causes amplified price reactions to news and liquidity shocks as well as an asymmetry biased towards crashes. Risk aversion of traders is shown to be essential for the asymmetry of price movements. Also, we show that differential information can enhance both amplification and asymmetry delivered by hedging. This paper is based on part of my Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Minnesota. I am grateful to Andy McLennan and Jan Werner for their valuable advice and unwavering support. Also, I would like thank Mehmet Barlo, Michele Boldrin, Partha Chatterjee, Mehmet Ozhabes, Dimitrios Tsomocos and seminar participants at the University of Minnesota, the MEA and the MFA Meetings in St Louis for helpful comments. Comments on a previous draft by an anonymous referee greatly improved the presentation of this paper. Financial support from William W. Stout Fellowship is gratefully acknowledged.     

Information and Control in Ventures and Alliances

This paper develops a theory of control as a signal of congruence of objectives, and applies it to financial contracting between an investor and a privately informed entrepreneur. We show that formal investor control is (i) increasing in the information asymmetries ex ante, (ii) increasing in the uncertainty surrounding the venture ex post, (iii) decreasing in the entrepreneur's resources, and (iv) increasing in the entrepreneur's incentive conflict. In contrast, real investor control—that is, actual investor interference—is decreasing in information asymmetries. Control rights are further such that control shifts to the investor in bad states of nature.     

2013年广西证券期货业发展回顾及2014年展望

2013年以来,在广西各级政府和广西证监局的共同努力下,广西资本市场规模稳步扩大,市场体系日趋完善,市场主体质量不断提高,投资者队伍日益壮大,为广西地方经济的发展做出了积极贡献.2014年,随着十八大、十八届三中全会精神的全面贯彻落实,资本市场各项改革举措的深入推进及广西南宁市区域性国际金融中心、沿边金融综合改革试验区等的持续建设,广西证券期货业将迎来黄金机遇期.广西应牢牢把握机遇,从转变思路、开发利用上市公司资源、完善多层次资本市场体系等方面推动广西资本市场发展,实现资本市场发展与实体经济转型升级的有机结合.     

Downloads and citations in Intelligent Systems in Accounting,Finance and Management

This paper summarizes the papers downloaded most from the years 2000–2002 and traces the number of citations from Google Scholar (beta) for those papers at the beginning of 2008. It is found that the number of downloads and citations are highly correlated, suggesting that downloads is a leading indicator of citations, even years into the future. In addition, this paper assesses which of the papers from the journal have been cited most over the history of the journal, using both ISI–Social Science Citation Index and Google Scholar. It is found that the numbers of citations using both approaches are highly correlated. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

美国通胀中的货币及非货币因素——变化趋势及在预期中的运用

上世纪80年代以来,美国经济和金融市场的一系列结构性长期变化使货币因素和通胀之间的稳定关系逐渐疏远,通胀不再总是货币现象;其中的关键变化是货币流通速度波动加大并趋势性下降,使货币供给与名义GDP及价格水平关系的稳定性和可预期性下降。未来影响美国通胀的主要因素是总供给和总需求的关系特别是消费者支出的动态变化。     

Collars and Renegotiation in Mergers and Acquisitions

I examine the motivation for, and effect of, including a collar in a merger agreement. The most important cross‐sectional determinants of the bid structure (cash vs. stock, and whether to include a collar) are the market‐related stock return standard deviations for the bidder and target. This evidence supports the hypothesis that the method of payment is dependent on the sensitivities of the bidder and target to market‐related risk because either has the incentive to demand renegotiation of the merger terms if the value of the bidder's offer changes materially relative to the value of the target during the bid period.     

Politics and economics in weak and strong states

While much research in political economy points out the benefits of “limited government,” political scientists have long emphasized the problems created in many less-developed nations by “weak states,” which lack the power to tax and regulate the economy and to withstand the political and social challenges from non-state actors. I construct a model in which the state apparatus is controlled by a self-interested ruler, who tries to divert resources for his own consumption, but who can also invest in socially productive public goods. Both weak and strong states create distortions. When the state is excessively strong, the ruler imposes such high taxes that economic activity is stifled. When the state is excessively weak, the ruler anticipates that he will not be able to extract rents in the future and underinvests in public goods. I show that the same conclusion applies in the analysis of both the economic power of the state (i.e., its ability to raise taxes) and its political power (i.e., its ability to remain entrenched from the citizens). I also discuss how under certain circumstances a different type of equilibrium, which I refer to as “consensually strong state equilibrium,” can emerge whereby the state is politically weak but is allowed to impose high taxes as long as a sufficient fraction of the proceeds are invested in public goods. The consensually strong state might best correspond to the state in OECD countries where taxes are high despite significant control by the society over the government.     

我国民间金融发展中存在的问题及对策建议

民间金融是指个人、家庭、企业之间通过绕开官方正式的金融体系而直接进行的、尚未纳入政府监管范围的、未取得合法地位的金融交易活动。民间金融在支持民营经济发展,促进农村经济发展中发挥了积极作用,但在其发展过程中还存在着一些问题。本文分析了我国民间金融存在的问题,并提出了对策建议。     

Devolution and federalism in England

This paper is concerned with current moves toward sub-national devolution in England and the prospects for a federal government system within the United Kingdom as a whole. The initial focus of the paper is upon the contested nature and governance of regions in England. Current steps toward devolution to such regions are considered through a critical lens, before moving to a wider discussion of the theory and practice of federalism and of whether England could be part of a federal system of UK government. It is concluded that the devolution agenda may proceed in a more serious and consistent manner than at present but there are severe barriers to federalism, including major constitutional constraints, the lack of a written constitution, significant asymmetry between different nations of the UK, the lack of clarity about the definition of sub-national English regions and the lack of political will. These all render a true UK federal state impossible to envisage.     

Managers and efficiency in banking

This paper presents evidence on the impact of managers on cost efficiency in banking. Stochastic frontier analysis is applied to a unique Finnish data set. Manager age and education have strong yet complicated effects on efficiency. The impact of age on efficiency depends on education. A university degree is useful mainly in the largest banks of the sample. Educational background seems to be less important for young managers than for mature ones. Managing director changes are systematically followed by efficiency changes. Retirement typically causes an efficiency improvement whereas other manager changes can either improve or weaken efficiency. However, in many cases mature managers outperform their young colleagues.     

美国证券仲裁裁决及其救济方法探讨

纽约证券交易所早在1871年就采用仲裁这种方式解决其会员之间的纠纷。其后，各个证券业自律组织，如美国证券交易所、全美证券交易商协会、芝加哥期货交易所等纷纷成立了仲裁部门，制定自己的仲裁规则，对证券纠纷进行仲裁。本文拟探讨美国证券仲裁裁决及其为投资者提供的救济方法，以期为设计我国证券仲裁制度提供参考。     

Discriminating between wealth and information effects in event studies in accounting and finance research

This article examines the power of tests of given size to detect and distinguish between wealth (i.e., mean) and information (i.e., variance) effects in event studies. We find that an Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) mean-effects test is consistently more powerful than the test based upon the average standardized residual and is as powerful as a nonparametric rank test. Unlike the test based upon the average standardized residual and the rank test, the EGLS test is well specified even when the event affects the variances of the prediction errors. We also find that conventional parametric tests to detect changes in the variance of the event-day average abnormal return are misspecified when the null of no change is true. We analyze the reasons this occurs and suggest a rank procedure that produces tests of the correct size under the null. Our evidence suggests that the critical factors allowing researchers to distinguish between wealth and information effects are an estimation procedure incorporating the heteroskedasticity inherent in market model prediction errors and an explicit test for event-day variance changes.     

明清时期西北地区的画家及画史初探

明清时期西北地区的画家人数颇丰,作品丰富,宗教壁画艺术、水陆画艺术成就非凡,文人画艺术风格浓厚,但影响深远者甚少是其主要特点.     

Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia

We document asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia for daily returns during the period 1992–2006 using a bivariate GARCH modelling approach. Negative bond market returns spillover into lower stock market returns whereas good news originating in the equity market leads to lower bond returns. Bond market volatility spills over into the equity market but the reverse is not true. Transmission of bond volatility into equity volatility depends in a complex way upon the respective signs of the return shocks in each market.     

公共投资与私人投资在我国农业增长中的作用及关系研究

在我国农业投资比重面临不断下降的形势下,本文考察了1985-2002年间我国农业投资对农业产出增长的作用,并进一步分析了农业公共投资与私人投资之间的关系,结果表明,农业投资对我国农业增长具有重要作用,农业公共投资与私人投资之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,并且二者存在单向的因果关系.在此基础上,对结果进行了分析并给出了相应的政策含义.     

我国信托型资产证券化的理论与实践问题及其完善

虽然证券化是引发金融危机的原因之一,但作为一种金融创新形式,证券化是不会轻易退出历史舞台的.信托财产的独立性与信托的组织形式,具有实现证券化目标的天然优势.我国的资产证券化选择了信托模式,但是源于英美法系的信托制度却与具有大陆法系传统的中国法律制度存在着冲突,因此导致了中国的资产证券化实践中出现了理论上难以解释的问题.中国资产证券化理论与实践问题的解决,最终要通过信托法律制度的完善.     

Geographic Inequality in Income and Mortality in Germany*

We use data from the German Federal Statistical Office on population counts, births, deaths and income to study the development of socio‐economic inequality in mortality rates from 1990 to 2015 for different age groups and both genders. Ranking the 401 German districts by average disposable income per capita, we observe large inequalities in district‐level mortality rates in 1990, which had almost disappeared, or at least been flattened considerably, by 2015 particularly for infants, children and the very old. The most important driver of this reduction in inequality is German reunification in 1990. As indicated by more detailed analyses comparing districts in the former East and the former West, even five years after reunification there was a large gap in disposable income, with all Eastern districts considerably poorer than the poorest district in the West. At the same time, mortality rates were higher for all age groups and both genders in the East. Income has caught up, to the extent that there are equally poor districts in the East and West in most recent years (although the West is still much richer on average). Mortality rates in the East have improved considerably and are even below mortality rates for similarly poor districts in the West in the most recent data.