住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

金融创新：住房抵押贷款证券化

住房抵押贷款证券化，是银行通过把住房的债权转让给第三方，带来手续费的收益和持续的资金支持，以满足后续按揭贷款需要的一种方式。实施住房抵押贷款证券化，是商业银行在房地产贷款规模扩大的情况下，根据住房抵押贷款的特点，为保证银行信贷资产在“流动性、安全性”的前提下实现利润最大化、规避信贷风险而采取的一项金融创新。实行住房抵押贷款证券化具有以下作用：1.可增强银行信贷资产的流动性，通过住房抵押贷款证券化把所持有的抵押贷款债权出售，及时回笼资金，弥补流动性的不足；2.住房抵押贷款债权经过汇集重组后，以统一标准…     

考量住房公积金资金流动性偏小时的指标选择

资金管理的目标是追求安全性、流动性、收益性“三性”）的兼顾与统一。住房公积金作为一项规模巨大的长期住房储金，其资金管理也应围绕“三性”展开。国务院《住房公积金管理条例》（以下简称《条例》）规定在保证住房公积金提取和贷款的前提下才可以进行其他保值增值操作，所以对住房公积金进行资金管理时，流动性是保证其可持续发展的一个极其重要方面。     

信贷政策调控住房市场的功效分析——住房问题笔谈之三

一、货币政策对住房市场的影响 住房金融支持了住房建设和消费.同时,近几年房价快速上涨,不少学者将原因归结于流动性过剩和信贷投放过多. 流动性充裕是一个事实.从2000年1月到2010年1月,货币供应量M0、M1、M2年均分别增长9.7%、17.3%和18.1%.     

住房公积金的流动性危机

一、流动性危机的爆发 住房公积金长期以来一直是我国住房制度的重要组成部分,对支持普通城市居民购买住房起到相当大的作用,在政府调控住房需求中也扮演着关键角色。一个例证是2008年末当住房市场遭遇寒流时,各地方政府的应对措施中,都不约而同地放宽了住房公积金个人贷款条件,提高贷款额度、降低贷款准入门槛。     

我国开展住房抵押贷款证券化试点方案的模式设计

一、我国开展住房抵押贷款证券化的可行性1.信贷资金长期化趋势所致的流动性风险将推动住房抵押贷款证券化至2003年底,我国住房抵押贷款累计余额已达到12,000多亿元。个人住房抵押贷款占商业银行各     

城市化进程中流动人口的住房保障问题研究——兼谈推行公共租赁住房制度

目前在中国已经建立起以住房公积金制度、经济适用房制度和廉租房制度为主要内容的住房保障体系.但是,现行的住房保障体系只关注了城市中户籍居民的住房问题,而忽视了现代社会发展的人口流动性所带来的住房保障问题,这已经成为我国城市化进程存在的一个突出问题.迫切需要推行公共租赁住房制度,构建一个阶梯式多层次住房保障系统结构和模式,解决城市不同群体的住房特殊问题.     

房地产市场现状与住房公积金贷款政策的选择

住房公积金贷款政策要适应房地产市场发展的需要,而房地产市场的发展变化反过来也影响住房公积金贷款政策的选择.随着房地产市场的快速发展,住房公积金贷款需求居高不下,贷款规模迅速增加,有些地市出现了住房公积金资金流动性问题,在此情况下住房公积金贷款政策应如何调整?住房公积金贷款政策与房地产市场的相辅相成作用也不是一成不变的,可视房地产市场状况及住房公积金管理情况作逆市调整.     

民间资本参与住房保障的途径——以T市为例

住房保障不可能单纯依靠政府投入,鼓励和引导民间资本参与是当务之急,T市实践证明民间资本可以参与住房保障事业,但选择民间资本参与的途径必须充分把握住房保障需求、住房保障政策以及民间资本的特质,合理利用政府主导和国有企业的表率作用,并基于民间资本、保障性住房特征构建住房保障细分政策,对民间资本科学运用利益诱导方式,并预防其流动性的危害,使民间资本更好地服务于住房保障乃至社会福利事业。     

住房公积金流动性风险及防控

住房公积金流动性风险是公积金运行管理中需要防范的主要风险之一，它已成为制约部分地区公积金制度能否充分发挥作用的关键。不论流动性过剩还是不足，都说明公积金资金运行管理不够科学合理，需加以改进。因此，本文系统分析了影响公积金流动性的原因，提出化解流动性风险工作建议，以期能够有效防范此类风险的发生。     

Residential mobility with job location uncertainty

This paper investigates the relationship between job changes and residential mobility. A job change may be prompted by reasons unrelated to factors associated with housing consumption. However, a job change may lead to an adjustment to housing consumption, i.e., residential relocation. Previous studies find that job relocations are positively associated with residential mobility. This paper departs from previous studies by looking at the effects of an uncertain future job location on residential mobility and mobility expectation. It is conjectured that with the existence of costs of residential mobility, a household head's likelihood for changing jobs in the future dampens the household's propensity to move, but encourages the formation of mobility expectation. These conjectures are examined empirically using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and they are confirmed.     

Housing equity,residential mobility and commuting

Highly productive economies require a flexible labor force with workers that move in accordance with the changing demand for goods and services. In times with falling housing prices, the mobility of home owning workers may be hampered by a lock-in effect of low or even negative housing equity. This paper explores the effect of housing equity on both the residential mobility and the commuting pattern of homeowners. We merge administrative registers for the Danish population and properties and get highly reliable micro data for our analysis. We find that low and negative housing equity substantially reduces residential mobility among homeowners. The negative effect of locked-in low equity families on labor market mobility may be mitigated by commuting. However, our results show that family heads in low or negative equity homes are not found to commute more than households with higher housing equity, but also that a considerable fraction of home owning family heads commute. The analysis of the joint decision of homeowners to commute or move shows that the option of moving, as an alternative to not moving and not commuting, is chosen by five to six percent of homeowners with low housing equity, while the option of not moving but commuting is chosen by 60%.     

Retirement and housing adjustment in later life: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

Using data from the first five waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we examine the extent and determinants of residential mobility for persons aged 55 or older, plus the subsequent housing adjustments made by those who move. The dimensions of adjustment examined are house value and rental costs, the number of `excess' rooms, and housing tenure. Relatively few individuals move house in later life in Britain. Choices do respond to one's own retirement, but other household changes such as loss of spouse and spouse leaving employment are also important. When a residential move is made, there is a tendency for housing consumption to change in a direction consistent with the correction of a disequilibrium position.     

从北京看住房产权对居住迁移的影响

本文基于对北京全境18个区县的大规模电话调查所获的2008年数据,研究了家庭户住房产权状况及其变动与居住迁移的相关关系。研究发现,有住房产权与无住房产权的家户相比较而言,迁居率和迁居意向明显较低。迁居时产权变动的情形不同,对迁居距离和迁居流场都有影响。流动人口的迁居较少伴随住房产权的转换,流动人口跨圈层的迁居多与获取住房产权相关。     

Intraurban residential mobility: The role of transactions costs, market imperfections, and household disequilibrium

This paper presents a model of household residential search and mobility that focuses on microeconomic elements of household behavior and incorporates housing market features. The model is cast explicitly in terms of a rigorous model of housing demand, allowing the benefits from moving to be measured as the compensating income variation of the potential change in consumption. The empirical results indicate that large changes in economic variables, such as income and prices produce only small potential gains from moving and that a major factor in the moving decision is the magnitude of search and moving costs.     

Housing capital-gains taxation and homeowner mobility: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997

We provide new evidence on the impact of housing capital-gains taxation on homeowner behavior by examining residential mobility before and after the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97), which generated the most sweeping reform of capital-gains taxation in the last two decades. In addition to lowering marginal tax rates on long-term capital gains for all assets, TRA97 also eliminated any differential treatment of housing gains above and below age 55, allowing all homeowners to qualify for capital-gains exclusions. Utilizing data drawn from the Current Population Survey (CPS) on either side of the law change (1996 and 1998) on homeowners just above (56–58 year olds) and below (52–54 year olds) the age-55 threshold and a reduced-form, difference-in-difference empirical approach, our estimates suggest that the repeal of the differential capital-gains tax treatment by age embodied in TRA97 had an economically important and statistically significant impact on the residential mobility of under-55 homeowners. Across a variety of specifications, the repeal raised the mobility rate by around 1–1.4 percentage points, which, for a mean mobility rate of 4 percentage points, represented an increase in the mobility rate of homeowners in their early 50s by 22–31%. Furthermore, the bulk of this effect was concentrated among highly mobile homeowners who a priori were more likely to have wanted to trade down (e.g., divorced, empty nesters), those facing higher capital gains tax rates, and those living in states that had experienced higher rates of nominal appreciation.     

Residential mobility and housing tenure choice

This paper treats housing tenure choice and residential moves as joint decisions. The parameters of a semi-Markov model with two states, renting and owning and continuous time, length of stay, are estimated with data from the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics for 1970–1980. Several distributional assumptions for residence spells confirm the basic role played by housing prices, wealth and other characteristics. Higher wealth implies higher likelihood of owning higher mobility for renters and lower for owners. Households with educated hands are more mobile. Housing modal prices may have statistically very significant coefficients, but not always as anticipated.     

Household factors and discrimination in housing consumption : Further developments in the analysis of tenure choice within housing careers

The decision of households regarding housing consumption should be viewed as decisions within an overall housing career. A model of household residential mobility is derived which may be empirically investigated through a generalisation of competing risk analysis. It is explained how the effects of omitted variables may be dealt with by means of a non-parametric characterisation of their multivariate distribution within a marginal likelihood framework. The problem of initial conditions is discussed in relation to the design of the analysis. The model is applied to the residence histories of a sample of households from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics     

INCIDENCE AND DETERMINANTS OF HOUSING UPGRADING IN CAIRO

Cairo is a very high density metropolis, where informal multi-unit housing accounts for a large share of the housing stock. Combined with a low residential mobility rate, this argues for dwelling improvements as a key element by which lower income homeowners can improve their housing circumstances. The article reports the extent of dwelling upgrading for this group and analyzes the determinants separately of both maintenance and major improvements. The analytic model is based on prior work, adjusted to the Egyptian context and available data. The incidence of improvements appears to be lower in Cairo than in more tropical megacities. However, the findings broadly confirm a general similarity in the determinants of housing investments by lower-income Cairene owners with those of lower income owners in more tropical locations. Three factors stand out: tenure security, household income, and the stimulation effects on investment of better infrastructure and poor dwelling conditions.     

户口、迁移与居住分异——以武汉为例的实证研究

计划经济时期的中国城市居住分异程度很低.转型期间快速的城市化和住房的市场化导致了大量人口的迁移迁居,使原来相对均质的单位社区转变为多元的、异质的城市空间,各种新型社区如破旧的移民社区和富有的门禁社区也都应运而生.城市的居住分异日益明显,居住区位也日渐成为社会经济地位的标志.根据武汉市2000年人口普查0.1%按户抽样数据,将市区人口分为市内未迁居居民、市内迁居居民、市外永久移民和市外暂时移民,从户口、迁移迁居和居住的关系分析不同人群在城市中的居住区位及分异状况.与西方城市相比,武汉市区目前的居住分异和隔离程度不高,但各分区的居住隔离程度存在明显差异,特定人群在城市某些区位的分畀隔离程度已达到相当高的程度,各类人群也存在一定程度的孤立性.政府相关部门应对此予以重视.