税收政策的变化影响公司资本结构吗？--基于两税合并的经验数据

本文基于我国两税合并的背景,运用区间分析、配对样本T检验、回归分析和倍数差分法等方法,实证检验所得税政策的变化是否对资本结构产生影响,进而验证修正的MM理论是否适应中国资本市场。研究结果表明：所得税税负水平与公司资本结构显著正相关;由于新税法的实行,所得税税率下降的内资公司相应的降低了公司财务杠杆;两税合并前后税率下降的样本公司比税率不变的样本公司的资本结构变动显著要大。综合而言,税收政策能够显著影响公司资本结构决策。     

Income tax reform for a globalized world: The case for a dual income tax

Countries that are industrialized, or becoming so, must adopt tax systems that are capable of raising considerable amounts of revenue efficiently, equitably and with administrative simplicity, while at the same time coping with the competitive features of a globalized world economy. A component of that tax system will be direct taxation of households alongside general sales and payroll taxation. This paper addresses the role that capital income taxes should play in the income tax system. Arguments for the preferential treatment of capital income are summarized, and a case is made for adopting a schedular approach in which capital and labor income are taxed according to separate rate structures. The particular case of the dual income tax system used in the Nordic countries is advocated whereby capital income is taxed at a low, flat rate and non-capital income is taxed progressively. It is argued that this system best combines the objectives of a good tax system in an internationally competitive environment.     

我国有效税率结构的经济增长效应：基于SVAR模型的实证研究

通过测算我国劳动、资本和消费的有效税率,以反映我国劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出的真实税收负担情况,并在此基础上构建SVAR模型来考察有效税率结构冲击对经济增长的动态影响。结果表明：消费支出有效税率和劳动收入有效税率的提高有利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为正;对资本收入征税,无论在短期还是长期都不利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为负。研究我国有效税率结构的经济增长动态增长效应,对政府税收政策的制定和实施时机的选择有一定的参考意义。     

Tax policy implications for a two‐engine growing economy

In an endogenous growth model with two engines of R&D and capital, we investigate the environment of “inclusive growth” for tax reallocations (tax increases or tax credits) to gain broader benefits in terms of promoting the overall GDP growth without an increase in income inequality. Our results show that a tax increase in the capital‐good sector can result in inclusive growth, boosting overall growth and reducing income inequality, provided that the status quo tax rate is not too high. Surprisingly, tax credits are not able to achieve such inclusive growth. While the GDP growth rises, a tax credit in the R&D sector not only increases income inequality but also decreases the aggregate employment, if the labor mobility cost between the final‐good and R&D/capital‐good sectors is relatively low. This provides a caution to policymakers given the fact that research tax credits have served as a common incentive to strengthen the R&D environment.     

上市公司税负及其影响因素——来自沪深股市的经验证据

我们以1994～2004年全国上市公司9536组数据为样本,考察上市公司税负及其影响因素,结果发现:①上市公司税负至少占利润的62.04%,上市公司总体税负并不轻;②上市公司总体税负存在地区差异,东部地区税负高于中部和西部地区;③上市公司总体税负存在行业差异,2004年度采掘业、房地产业等五个行业平均总体税负较高;④总体税负与所得税负担、流转税负担、资产规模、盈利能力、资本密集度和年度变量显著正相关,却与负债水平和投资收益显著负相关。本文的政策含义在于:①若要保持税收的可持续增长,应该紧紧抓住典型重点企业,比如资产规模大、盈利能力强的企业,这些企业是重点税源;②由于总体税负与资本密集度显著正相关,税收受到投资的强劲拉动,因此,它会显著地受到国家宏观调控之影响;③在企业方面,可以适度负债,合理地利用负债的税收档板作用;④企业可以适度地进行多元化长期投资、分散风险。     

Consumption externalities,market imperfections and optimal taxation

In a dynamic model with a keeping‐up‐with‐the Joneses preference and market imperfections, we attempt to investigate under what circumstances and for what reason the optimal tax should be state‐varying. We extend the Ljungqvist and Uhlig (2000) proposition to include preferences that exhibit non‐homotheticity. We show that a keeping‐up‐with‐the‐Joneses preference (a non‐intertemporally‐dependent preference) can lead the social planner to commit to a state‐contingent tax on labor income. Moreover, the optimal labor income tax can be either procyclical or countercyclical with respect to economic fluctuations, this crucially depending on whether the level of contemporaneous consumption increases or decreases the wedge between the intertemporal substitution elasticity of households and of the social planner.     

双循环格局下的竞争中性与国企改革——来自国有资本差异化功能的证据

本文在一般均衡框架下构建理论模型,从微观视角考察国有资本功能在国有、民营两部门中的差异,讨论"双循环"战略下如何有效配置国有资本,推动竞争中性框架的建立.研究表明:国有资本在理论上具有正向的经济效率并促进企业积极承担社会责任,但经验证据显示其经济效率偏低,且在国有和民营部门有较大差异.在国有部门中,国有资本的经济效率显...     

To Spend the U.S. Government Surplus or to Increase the Deficit? A Numerical Analysis of the Policy Options

This paper provides a numerical analysis of the likely benefits from adopting alternative ways of reducing the projected fiscal surplus (as of the summer 2001) in the United States economy. Calibrating a small growth model, our results suggest that investing the surplus in public capital is likely to yield the greatest long-run welfare gains, although decreasing the capital income tax is only marginally inferior. Both these options dominate increasing government consumption expenditure or decreasing the tax on labor income. By shifting resources from consumption toward capital the two superior policies involve sharp intertemporal tradeoffs in welfare; significant short-run welfare losses are more than compensated by large long-run welfare gains. By contrast, the two inferior options are gradually welfare-improving through time. A crucial factor in determining the benefits of reducing the government surplus through spending is the size of the government sector relative to the social optimum. We find that the second-best optimum is to increase both forms of government expenditure to their respective social optima, while at the same time restructuring taxes by reducing the tax on capital and raising the tax on wage income to achieve the targeted reduction in the surplus. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 405–435. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; and Department of Economics, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia, Atlanta, Georgia. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E62, O41.     

Golden Rules of Wages

We consider a neoclassical growth model where labor collectively chooses labor share to maximize its steady‐state wage rate. In the basic two‐factor model, labor maximizes the steady‐state wage rate by setting labor share equal to the elasticity of output with respect to labor. This is precisely the competitive outcome. Only when we consider the model with organized and unorganized labor types can organized labor raise its steady‐state wage by choosing a higher than competitive labor share. Organized labor can benefit by choosing a higher labor share only at the expense of unorganized workers; not capital. We also analyze a version of the model that incorporates a tradeoff between collective bargaining opportunities and skill acquisition. All else equal, a higher skill premium leads organized labor to choose a higher labor share. Organized labor benefits again at the expense of skilled workers; not capital.     

两税合并的要素收入份额影响研究

实证研究发现,基于合理的参数,两税合并的实施有利于降低劳动要素对企业所得税的实际负担率,无论是将房地产、租赁和商务服务业划入外商投资比例较高的部门还是外商投资比例较低的部门.在两种不同分类法下,劳动要素的企业所得税实际负担率比上年下降了0.36和0.33个百分点,降幅达到3.20%和2.56%.结束对外资的“超国民待遇”,促进了企业间的公平竞争,降低了内资的市场进入成本,有利于改善劳动要素在国民收入再分配过程中的地位     

Environmental taxation and employment

Summary This paper explores how environmental taxes affect employment. It argues that the case for environmental taxes should rest on environmental grounds rather than possibly favorable employment effects. Using pollution taxes to shift the tax burden away from labor is likely to be difficult for economic, social, and political reasons. Moreover, these taxes are likely to raise the overall tax burden-even if the revenues are recycled as lower distortionary taxes. To stimulate employment, governments should rely on alternative instruments targeted at the labor market.     

农村居民多维收入流动、税费负担及政策效应——基于面板数据PSM-DID方法的研究

收入流动性是从动态视角衡量居民收入分配公平与否的重要指标,其变动程度受到税收等因素的影响。文章基于2001年至2014年季度和年度面板数据,依据多维收入流动指标,测算出了地区之间农村居民绝对和相对收入流动程度,并利用双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID）和工具变量估计法研究了农村税费改革及其他经济社会因素对农村居民收入流动性的影响。研究发现：（1）农村税费改革的政策效应非常显著,实施农业税费减免政策的地区,其农民的绝对收入流动性显著高于未改革地区;（2）税费负担对绝对收入流动性的影响呈现出"倒U型"特征,即当税费负担率为0.167%时,绝对收入流动性达到最大值,若进一步增加税费负担,收入流动性则呈现下降趋势;（3）税费支出变动对相对收入流动性的影响也通过了5%的显著性检验;（4）农村劳动力文化结构、工资收入比重等家庭特征因素对收入流动性的影响具有较大的地区异质性。有鉴于此,在进一步完善税费征收项目监管的同时,依据家庭及地区特征实施差异化的支农惠农政策,切实减轻农民负担,增强农村居民收入流动,实现地区间收入分配均衡。     

The Timing of Redistribution

We investigate whether late redistribution programs that can be targeted toward low income families, but that may distort savings decisions, can “dominate” early redistribution programs that cannot be targeted as a result of information constraints. We use simple two‐period overlapping generations models with heterogeneous agents under six policy regimes: a model calibrated to the U.S. economy (benchmark), two early redistribution (lump sum) regimes, two (targeted) late redistribution regimes, and finally a model without taxes and redistribution. Redistribution programs are financed by a labor tax on the young generation and a capital tax on the old generation. We argue that if the programs are small in size, late redistribution can dominate early redistribution in terms of welfare but not in terms of real output. Better targeting of low income households cannot completely offset savings distortions. In addition, we find that the optimal transfer and tax policy implies a capital tax of 100% and transfers exclusively to the young generation.     

增值税改革对企业劳动份额的作用机制——基于面板三重差分模型的实证研究

以中国工业企业数据为样本,从微观层面运用面板三重差分模型（DDD）对增值税转型的效果进行了测算,发现增值税转型显著降低了劳动份额,并且显著降低了政府份额。为了探索其内在机制,基于收入分配的视角,进一步分析发现增值税转型对劳动份额存在两方面的效果,一是增值税转型降低政府份额,政府份额下降有利于增加劳动份额。二是增值税转型加剧资本对劳动的替代。实证研究发现第二种效果大于第一种效果,最终降低了劳动报酬。研究补充了增值税改革的经验,为2015年营业税改增值税的政策评价提供了参考。     

税收负担会阻碍企业创新吗?——来自“金税工程三期”的证据

文章以税务稽查系统的改革-"金税工程三期"作为政策实验，利用上市公司2006-2016的年报数据，在双重差分模型下研究了"金税工程三期"对于企业创新的影响。研究发现，"金税工程三期"上线后，企业的研发投入和研发产出显著下降。进一步探讨内在机制，发现"金税三期"提高了企业的所得税费用负担率，增加了企业的税收负担。"金税三期"对企业创新的影响存在异质性，影响主要体现在民营企业、非创新型企业和现金流不充裕的企业中，并且与"金税工程三期"试点版相比，"金税工程三期"优化版对企业创新的负面影响更大。这表明，税收负担的加重会阻碍企业创新，政府应当适当减轻企业税负负担，促进企业转型升级。     

税率调整、产权安排与实际税负差异——基于两税合并的经验证据

 本文研究了所得税外生性变化对不同产权性质企业实际税收负担的影响。研究发现：（1）新企业所得税法实施后国有企业和民营企业的整体税负以及法定税率下降的国有企业和民营企业的实际税负都有所下降，而且两类企业实际税负下降幅度无差异；（2）新企业所得税法对企业实际税负的调节效应在2008年释放完毕，2009年公司实际税负没有发生持续性变化；（3）进一步的证据表明，新税法实施后国有企业和民营企业整体税负无显著差异。     

Income inequities between black and white populations in southern nonmetropolitan counties

This article examines differences in the income status of black and white populations in Southern nonmetropolitan counties and discusses how various labor market, social, and human capital characteristics influence the income status of the respective groups. The data show an inconsistent pattern between black and white populations’ income level in Southern nonmetropolitan counties. The data also show that various structural/institutional (e.g., local labor market and human capital) and social/cultural (e.g., population) factors affect the income of black and white populations differently.     

Genes and Social Mobility: A Case for Progressive Income Tax

Abstract

The effect of ability inheritance on income distribution and social mobility is analyzed with an emphsis on the role of progressive income tax. Epstein–Zin style utility function is used to highlight the role of risk aversion. The result shows that higher genetic inheritability leads to lower per capita income, higher income variance and lower aggregate welfare at the steady state. This tendency is intensified when the elasticity of a child's income to parent's educational investment is higher. In this setup, it is shown that progressive income tax can be a welfare-enhancing tool by increasing social mobility. The optimal progressive income tax rate is obtained in the benchmark model and its positive effect is discussed in the context of “Veil of ignorance”, a concept proposed by Rawls (A Theory of Justice (Cambridge, MA: Harvard, University Press), 1971).     

A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China

Our model is a multi-sectoral version of Romer's variety expansion model that reveals the presense of industrial hollowing-out. The basic idea of the model is similar to that of Lucas [Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1993, “Making a Miracle.” Econometrica 61, p. 273–302.]. An increase in (external) social experience capital through learning by doing raises labor productivity. It also increases the social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods. The model provides the following implications: First, even though the economic growth of China raises the exports of low-level technology goods from neighboring countries to China in the short run, this can lower their future growth potential by lowering the accumulation of social experience capital. Second, without increasing social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods, those countries can experience industrial hollowing-out, lower equilibrium wage rates, and a higher unemployment rate. Third, as with conclusions garnered by standard geography models, both a huge market size and very low-level wages in China imply a continuation of discontinuous and lumpy loss of jobs and sectors. In this context, various policies to raise social capacity, besides retraining programs and unemployment safety nets, should be provided by the government to avoid industrial hollowing-out and to allocate labor efficiently.     

Laffer curves in Japan

This paper investigates the Laffer curves in Japan, based on a neoclassical growth model. It is found that while the labor tax rate is smaller than that at the peak of the Laffer curve, the capital tax rate is either very close to, or larger than, that at the peak of the Laffer curve. This problem is more serious when the consumption tax rate is high. It is also found that to maximize total tax revenue, the government should increase the labor tax rate but decrease the capital tax rate.