The impact of the US stock market opening on price discovery of government bond futures

We examine price discovery in sequential markets for the 10-year US Treasury note, German bund, and UK gilt futures over the period 2010–2017. We find that price discovery increases after the opening of the US stock market. Order flows in the bond futures markets are more informative for permanent price changes in the 30-min period after the US stock market opens. A placebo test using US statutory holidays confirms our findings. A cross-market analysis suggests that the increased price discovery in the bond futures is related to returns and net order flows of the US stock market.     

全球经济危机对我国进出口贸易的影响——基于多参数平滑法的定量分析

选取2000-2010年我国进出口的月度数据,运用多参数平滑方法,分析了全球经济危机对我国进出口贸易的影响。定量分析显示全球经济危机使我国2009年和2010年对外出口规模减少额超过10000亿美元,进口规模减少额超过6000亿美元,影响十分巨大,危机开始时对一般贸易的影响超过对进出口的整体影响。随着我国政府实施扩张性的财政政策和货币政策的效果逐渐显现,世界经济逐步回暖,全球经济危机对我国进出口的影响逐渐减少。进一步的研究显示:危机使得我国对欧盟进出口的影响超过了对美国进出口的影响;对欧美地区出口的影响超过进口的影响;对我国不同地区进出口的影响是从东到西影响强度逐步减弱,对外开放程度越高的地区受到的影响越显著,能够充分发挥比较优势的产品或行业受到全球经济危机负面影响的程度较小。     

美国CPSC召回的儿童产品质量问题分析

本文统计了2010年1-6月美国消费品安全委员会召回儿童产品的情况,分析了产品的质量缺陷,并具体给出美国相关法规的正确要求,从微观和宏观方面对出口商品检验监管提出相应建议。     

中美贸易不平衡的均衡、错位及其矫正的实证研究

利用1995-2010年1季度数据,研究中美贸易不平衡的均衡水平、错位程度及其矫正机制。研究发现:长期看,美国经济增长1%、中国经济增长1%、人民币对美元实际汇率贬值1%,导致中国对美贸易顺差分别增加4.46%、0.81%、0.93%;2005年我国的汇率制度改革导致我国对美贸易顺差小幅度增加。中美贸易收支错位的自我修正机制存在,自我修正功能较强。短期看,人民币对美元实际汇率升值、我国货币供给减少、美国政府支出增加、人民币对美元名义汇率贬值,导致我国对美贸易顺差增加。中美贸易不平衡的错位是经常性的,2009-2010年1季度,中美贸易不平衡低于均衡水平。政策含义是:积极转变我国的经济增长方式;长期坚持人民币对美元适度升值;策略性地应对来自美国的人民币升值压力。     

The impact of stock split handling rules on returns: Evidence from Canada

Canadian and US stock split handling rules differ. In the US, buying shares is inconvenient before the ex‐date. In Canada, sellers face a miniscule probability of a big loss if the split is cancelled between the ex‐date and payable date. On the ex‐date, Canadian stock returns are positive and the proportion of seller‐initiated trading declines. After the payable date, returns are negative and the proportion of seller‐initiated trading increases. For cross‐listed shares, effects of US and Canadian rules are offsetting as returns are insignificant. We conclude that rules associated with a remote possibility of large losses affect investor behaviour. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in helmet use by motorcycle riders in the decades following the repeal of mandatory helmet laws

Several US states repealed universal motorcycle helmet laws in the 1990s and 2000s. The purpose of this study was to examine national trends in helmet use among adult trauma patients with motorcycle-related injuries. We hypothesized that motorcycle helmet use declined over time. We retrospectively analyzed the National Trauma Data Bank's National Sample Program for 2003–2010. We also obtained data on US motorcycle fatalities reported in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau to calculate motorcycle-related fatality rates over time. A total of 255,914 patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 148,524 (58%) were helmeted. During the study period, helmet use increased from 56% in 2003 to 60% in 2010 (p < 0.001). However, motorcycle-related fatality rates also increased in states with and without universal helmet laws. Nationally, rates of helmet use have increased. However, fatalities due to motorcycle crashes have also increased during the same period.     

Replacement versus Historical Cost Profit Rates: What is the Difference? When Does it Matter?

This paper explains the Bureau of Economic Analysis methodology for computing historical cost and replacement cost measures of the net stock of capital in the US economy. It is demonstrated that there exists a threshold rate of inflation in the price of capital goods that keeps the percentage difference between the two capital stock measures constant. Hence, over periods when average inflation in the price index for capital goods is equal to the threshold value, historical cost and replacement cost profit rates would show equal percentage changes; an example of such a period for the US economy is 1946–2010.     

美国制造业回流的实施效果分析及对我国外贸的影响

2008年国际金融危机爆发后,美国国内主张发展制造业、改变经济过分依赖服务业尤其是金融业的呼声日益高涨。奥巴马政府也采取了一系列措施实行制造业回归美国的再工业化。2010-2012年,美国制造业出口增速高迭22％,超过进口增速19．3％。中关早已互为第二大贸易伙伴,美国制造业回流的举措必然加剧中关贸易摩擦,增加我国制造业产品出口压力,影响我国装备制造业的升级和就业,对此,我国应加大对核心产业的扶持力度,促进产业升级;加大科研投入,促进技术创新;开拓多元化市场,同时激发国内需求;提升教育质量,加大教育投资。     

Decoupling and Contagion: The Special Case of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

This paper demonstrates that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis constitutes a special case in the contagion literature with general implications. Perfectly correlated bond markets imply that contagion can only occur if there is a decoupling to lower correlation levels with increased idiosyncratic shocks leading to more severe but less systemic spillovers. This theoretical prediction is fully supported by the empirical analysis. We also show that dynamic coexceedance estimates provide a more robust and more general picture of contagion than correlation‐based tests. Coexceedances identify only one major incidence of contagion that affected five periphery Eurozone countries in May 2010 and coincided with flight to quality from the periphery to the core and the 2010 “flash crash” in US equity markets.     

Cotton Subsidies,the WTO,and the ‘Cotton Problem’

Following an 8‐year‐long dispute over cotton subsidies, Brazil and the US signed a Memorandum of Understanding on 21 April 2010, effectively paving the way for settling the dispute. This paper argues that cotton subsidies are just the tip of the iceberg while a number of other, perhaps more important, issues require attention and, indeed, political will. Chief among them is the persistent divergence between cotton prices and the prices of other agricultural commodities which reflects, for the most part, the large supply response by China and India, a direct consequence of conversion to biotech cotton varieties in these (and other) countries. Such a response – which kept cotton prices low, compared to other commodities – imposes a competitive disadvantage to nonusers of biotech cotton. The paper also highlights two additional constraints faced by the cotton‐producing countries of West and Central Africa, namely the structural inefficiencies of their primary processing industries (also known as ginning) and the appreciation of the CFAf against the US dollar. Without downplaying the importance of subsidy elimination, this paper concludes that these impediments should receive high priority in the policy agenda.     

A simple method for extracting the probability of default from American put option prices

We present a novel method for extracting the risk-neutral probability of default (PD) of a firm from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed by Carr and Wu, we derive a parsimonious closed-form formula for American put option prices from which the PD can be inferred. The method is easy to implement. Our empirical results based on seven large US firms for the period 2002–2010 show that, in some cases, our option-implied PD can provide a more accurate estimate of default probability than the estimates implied from credit default swaps.     

浅谈“美国国债困境”对我国的影响

美国国债危机引发世界恐慌,中国作为美国国债最大的持有者,如何能够在风云变幻的国际资本运作中独善其身,是目前最为国民关注的问题。中美经济相互依赖是多年形成的格局,美国国债危机也严重干扰了中国的金融秩序。中国应从美国国债危机中吸取教训,完善外汇储备管理机制,鼓励利用外汇储备,加强对投机资本的监管,减少对他国经济的依赖性,尽最大可能减少美国国债危机带来的冲击。     

US–Brazilian cotton policies

Brazil filed a lawsuit with the WTO against the United States for providing cotton production and export subsidies, and the WTO ruled in favour of Brazil. Brazil threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs if the United States does not comply with the WTO rulings. After a prolonged litigation stretching from 2002 to 2010, both countries agreed to a negotiated settlement wherein the United States paid Brazilian cotton producers to compensate for any adverse effects. This study develops a political economic model to theoretically analyse US cotton policies, Brazil's threat of retaliatory tariffs and the negotiated settlement between the two countries. The theoretical results show that the volume of cotton output, supply price response, politicians' apathy for the public welfare, elasticities of excess supply/demand and the magnitude of US transfers play a crucial role in determining US policies. This study contributes to the literature by being the first to model political economic aspects of the complex system of trade and domestic policies in the cotton industry using a three-country framework, tariff retaliation and transfers between the countries.     

Adherence of Retirement Mutual Fund Providers to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s Advertising Guidance: Provision and Readability of Advertising Disclosure

This research provides an initial investigation of whether US retirement mutual fund providers complied with the Investment Company Advertising Rules (2003) adopted by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A content analysis was used to examine advertising disclosures presented in 953 retirement mutual fund magazine advertisements from 2004 to 2010 based on SEC’s advertising guidance. The results suggest that during the given period, retirement mutual fund providers generally presented mandatory and triggered advertising disclosures, but paid less attention to the readability of advertising disclosures. Implications for regulators, consumer groups, and financial services marketers are discussed in light of financial literacy and consumer welfare.     

The determinants of foreign giving: An exploratory empirical investigation of US manufacturing firms

To date, there is ample evidence on the determinants of domestic charitable contributions made by US firms. However, to the best of our knowledge, no one has investigated the determinants of foreign charitable contributions made by US firms. Using the Socrates KLD database and the US M&A data for the 2004–2010 period, we find evidence that foreign giving by US manufacturing firms is linked to certain key variables. Specifically, we find evidence that variables found significant in the domestic giving literature (pre entry return on assets, size, debt to asset ratio, market to book ratio, and research and development expense as a function of sales) are also found significant for foreign giving. However, and notably, cultural distance and foreign sales percentage have been found to be important discriminators between manufacturing firms who give abroad and those who do not. It appears that high international business experience (proxied by the foreign sales ratio) and operations in culturally distant countries motivate foreign giving. Finally, subsample analysis involving developed and developing countries suggests that cultural distance matters for developing countries, but does not for the developed country subsample. Firm level profitability matters for developed countries, but not for developing countries. Future research may be expanded to include the dollar amounts of giving and a bigger sample size. Differences in foreign giving patterns between manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, and by firms in countries other than the US, may also be explored.     

Akbar's multiculturalism: lessons for diversity management in the 21st century

This paper challenges the hegemony of US‐centric perspectives in the diversity management literature by explaining how non‐Western histories and cultures may provide alternative contexts for understanding and managing diversity. In pursuit of this, the paper describes how Muslim ruler Jalaluddin Muhammad Akbar conceptualized multiculturalism in 16th century India, and how his principles of sulh‐i‐kul, rah‐i‐aql, and rawa‐i‐rozi may be adopted to develop a sociopolitical environment conducive to managing cultural diversity in organizations, an environment currently lacking even in the majority of democratic countries in the world today. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Commodity Price,Carry Trade,and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies

This study examines how the volatility and liquidity of 10 Asian exchange rates against the US dollar change with volatilities in commodity price and carry trade over the period of January 2000 to June 2010. We find that uncertainties in commodity markets and carry trades are significantly correlated with the volatilities and the bid‐ask spreads of most Asian currencies. The correlation with carry trade is generally stronger and has been rising over the sample period. While high volatilities in carry trade are associated with high volatilities in many Asian currencies, high volatilities in commodity price do not coincide with excessive volatilities in Asian currencies. This suggests that investors and policymakers should be more concerned with the volatility in carry trade.     

人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡的关联性实证分析

近年来,中关贸易规模发展迅速,但双边贸易不平衡问题日益突出,成为中美贸易摩擦的焦点所在,人民币汇率问题被认为是导致中关贸易不平衡的主要原因。然而通过大量数据分析和探讨中关贸易不平衡与人民币汇率的关系,发现人民币汇率并非导致中美贸易不平衡的主要原因,而美国国内经济失衡,对华出口管制,两国统计口径的差异,美国对华的直接投资才是中关贸易失衡的主要原因。     

Further analysis of the speed of response to large trades in interest rate futures

This study examines the adjustment process in the interest rate futures market following large block trades, by analyzing changes in the levels of quoted prices, bid‐ask spreads, and trading activity. Most of the adjustment in prices and spreads is complete within 12 quote revisions (approximately 70 seconds). Results suggest that block trades stimulate subsequent trading activity, as traders rush to express differences of opinion about the price implication of the block. The market response to block trades exhibits several features in common with the two‐phase response of the US treasury market to macroeconomic announcements described by Fleming, M. J. and Remolona, E. M. (1999). © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:705–724, 2010     

Oil volatility and the option value of waiting: An analysis of the G‐7

There has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay production and investment. These models are widely utilized in capital budgeting and production decisions, particularly in the energy sector. There is relatively little empirical evidence, however, on whether such channels have effects on industrial production. Using a sample of G7 countries we examine whether uncertainty about a prominent commodity—oil—affects the time series variation in industrial production. Our primary result is consistent with the predictions of real options theory—uncertainty about oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on manufacturing activity in Canada, France, UK, and US. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:679–702, 2011