Socially-oriented expenditures of regional budgets during the economic crisis

This paper analyzes the level of budget expenditures in the constituent entities of the Northwestern Federal District regarding the labor remuneration of workers in the budgetary sphere and social protection in the period from 2008 to 2010. The data of the Federal Treasury on budget performance in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are used.     

Interregional migration and socioeconomic differentiation of space in present-day Russia

An analysis of the scale and directions of interregional migration in Russia and its relation to most important economic indicators describing the standard of living and quality of life in regions. The feasibility of using migration indices as indicators of the level of social and economic development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation is discussed.     

Modeling the economy’s need for professionally trained personnel

Algorithms and mathematical models that help predict, on the basis of macroeconomic analysis, the needs of regional economies for professionals with higher, secondary, and basic vocational education and form the enrolment plans of educational establishments on the basis of these needs are considered. The model is based on the matrices of profession-qualification matches; it uses job rotation coefficients and average annual employment data by industry and by education level. The methodology of predicting the needs for vocational education graduates is standardized for all the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.     

Analyzing the impact of the natural resources factor on the level of economic development of Russian regions

The paper estimates the role of the natural factor in today’s Russian economy with the help of different statistical methods. The intensity of the use of the natural resource factor is investigated through the indices of development of main primary industries in the economy of the country as a whole and its regions. The grouping of all the constituent entities of the Federation into seven clusters according to a series of economic indicators permitted to isolate a group of regions corresponding to the sustainable development concept.     

Medium-term financial planning at regional and municipal levels: Problems and instruments

The paper analyses problems in medium-term financial planning, considers the practice and possibilities of the use by executive authorities of Russian Federation constituent members and municipalities of budget planning entities’ reports on the results and main directions of their activities as a medium-term financial planning instrument. Problems of local importance and the fiscal provision of regional and rural municipalities, budgetary and tax policy trends, and the possibilities of financing and fulfilling expenditure obligations by local administrations are correlated.     

Effectiveness of the strategy and regional risks of creating the East Siberian Oil and gas Complex

The paper gives a systematic presentation of major risks at the pioneering stage of creating the East-Siberian Oil and gas Complex (ESOGC). It also estimates probable consequences of these risks for socioeconomic development of the regions. To assess regional risks, we have used the traditional method of analyzing regional development scenarios under different corporate business strategies. The latter are presented as a set of investment projects and intentions as well as constraints and preferences of the state represented by constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Economic effects in the ESOGC regions are analyzed by growth indicators of the region’s GRP and revenues of the regional and local budgets.     

Environmentally adjusted evaluation of regional economic growth

Issues in the construction of sustainable development indicators for the constituent members of the Russian Federation are discussed. To this end, the value of environmental pollution damage and the value of natural resource rent for all the constituents of the Russian Federation are defined. Environmental pollution damage and natural resource rent are viewed as two types of “unearned” income. The calculation of indicators of the gross regional product cleared of such incomes made it possible to evaluate more correctly the economic results and to define the level of innovative development of regional economies.     

俄罗斯利用FDI的经济增长效应分析——基于Panel Data的研究

进入新世纪以来,全球FDI地区流动特点表现为投资主流正在从传统的投资区域转向某些新兴的市场,俄罗斯联邦近年来由于能源行业蓬勃发展,其吸引FDI的能力大幅提升。本文通过对俄罗斯七个联邦区1999~2005年的相关数据进行面板数据分析,对影响俄罗斯联邦经济发展的因素进行剖析,对其FDI的经济增长效应进行研究。     

Educational credit in Russia: Problems and prospects

The paper analyzes problems and prospects of education crediting in Russia, sums up the author’s personal experience of participation in the development and management of the education crediting system within the framework of a private business initiative (the Credo program), as well as in various working groups (at the Russian Federation State Duma, the Ministry of Education and Science, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, etc.) set up to discuss opportunities and to work out recommendations for the development of educational credit in the Russian Federation.     

Transmission channels of crisis situations in the Russian federation and their identification

The article identifies significant transmission channels of crisis situations in the Russian economy (based on the application of a Markov regime-switching model and the likelihood ratio test). A system of comprehensive crisis indicators has been developed that makes it possible to predict the probability of a crisis in the Russian Federation for one month, a quarter-year, and a half-year ahead.     

Imbalances of external sector of the Russian financial market and approaches of their regulation

The article considers the main modern imbalances of external sector of the Russian financial market and the main elements of the new concept of cross-border capital movement of the Russian Federation in the conditions of increasing geopolitical and geo-economic risks for ensuring financial stability and maintenance of long-term economic growth in the country.     

Science and technology forecasting today: Features of its methodology and object

The paper examines methodological and subject aspects of some problem questions that arise in organizing and technologization a long-term forecast procedure. It looks at the basic elements of the methodology and technique of a long-term forecast performed during the development of the Concept for Long-term Socioeconomic Development of the Russian Federation. Key conditions for technology application in the framework of two possible scenarios of Russian economic growth, primary-and-energy and innovation-active, are analyzed.     

Innovation activity in branches of Russia’s agroindustrial sector

The main directions in developing the innovation processes in key branches of the agroindustrial sector of the Russian Federation in the modern Russian economy are considered. The role of the state creating a modern innovation system is presented, as well as activation of scientific research into the agroindustrial sector.     

Determinants of public health in Arctic and Subarctic territories of Russia

The paper discusses major economic risks for public health, including average income and income differentiation, living conditions, and public healthcare availability in the northern regions of the Russian Federation compared to the nationwide average.     

School graduates from small towns in Russia: Educational and migration strategies

This paper used the results of a research project that was implemented at the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting of the Russian Academy of National Economy and State Service under the President of the Russian Federation in 2015. The data of the quantitative survey of school graduates from the 11th grade of secondary schools in small Russian towns, as well as the materials of expert interviews with representatives of the municipal education departments and school management. The main conclusion of the study is that there is a huge migration potential of youth in small towns, which is mainly related to receiving higher education in large cities, unfortunately without the real prospect of returning to the lesser motherland.     

Security-development nexus in strategic planning in the Russian Federation: From goal-setting to forecasting

This paper examines the implementation of the doctrinal principle of interdependence between security and development in the current Russian strategic planning documents devoted to goal-setting and forecasting. The authors make several recommendations on how to improve the forecasting methodology and the effectiveness of strategic planning in the Russian Federation in a complex geopolitical environment with increased risks to national security and sustainable development.     

Forecasting of labor market demand dynamics on different stages of crisis in Russian economics

This paper presents the evaluation of medium-term additional labor force demand based on analysis of projection scenarios of basic macroeconomic indicators of Russian Federation economics during crisis and post-crisis period until 2015. Modeling of additional labor force demand with regard for crisis processes in Russian economics was implemented by formalization of factors that influence labor force dynamics. The verification of projection evaluation of additional labor force demand based on 2009 crisis monitoring data and conditions of dismissed labor force back up during the post-crisis period.     

A modeling toolkit for predictive ananlytical studies of the dynamics of interindustry relations in the domestic economy

This paper presents the main results from a balance-econometric model of development for the analysis and prediction of real sector interindustry relations in the economy of the Russian Federation after 1990.     

The population of the Russian Federation: Solvency dynamics and depopulation

The authors use regression models to explain the main reasons for a fall in the birth-rate and growth in mortality in the Russian Federation. They determine funds required to overcome the natural loss of the population. Sources for mobilizing these funds are indicated, as are inflation-free ways of their realization     

The current state of land turnover in Russia

The paper characterizes the land market turnover in the Russian Federation. Various market land transactions and the associated legal, organizational, technical, and economic problems are considered.