我国货币政策的实施效果、原因及改善

货币政策是中央银行根据宏观经济形势和目标的要求,运用货币政策工具实现货币政策操作目标,通过操作目标实现货币政策中介目标,从而达到货币政策最终目标的总方针和措施。货币政策在经济增长中的作用是其他任何政策不可取代的。分析近年货币政策的效果及成因,提出有针对性的建议,有利我国货币政策取得较理想的效果。     

如何判断当前国际和国内宏观经济走势

分析和判断宏观经济形势，是制订宏观经济政策的前提。一般来说，一国中央银行的货币政策主要包括四个目标，依次是经济增长，高度就业，物价稳定和外汇市场稳定。因此，判断宏观经济走势，也应主要从这四个方面进行分析。     

零准备金制度下的货币政策操作框架研究

目前世界上越来越多的国家取消了对商业银行的法定准备金要求,不仅于此,英国、加拿大和澳大利亚等国家的中央银行还采用了通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架,从而主要通过调控短期名义利率来实现既定的目标通货膨胀率,如此操作不但较好地实现了对宏观经济的调控,而且,相比较正法定准备金制度下的货币政策操作,在零准备金制度下,货币当局主要通过引导市场主体的预期来实现政策目标,从而在减少货币政策操作成本的同时,也使得中央银行有了更大的政策实施空间。     

中央银行的独立性以及货币政策有效性研究

自从凯恩斯创立了宏观经济学,财政政策和政策政策就成为调节宏观经济的必要手段。货币政策的有效性程度和一国中央银行的独立性程度密切相关。本文回顾央行独立性的相关定义,并由此得出中国央行只具有相对的独立性,这种相对的独立性影响了央行货币政策的有效程度。本文提出了一些加强改善我国央行独立性的建议,包括改革银行立法,增强中央银行操作的透明度,公开市场操作等。     

中央银行的独立性以及货币政策有效性研究

自从凯恩斯创立了宏观经济学,财政政策和政策政策就成为调节宏观经济的必要手段.货币政策的有效性程度和-国中央银行的独立性程度密切相关.本文回顾央行独立性的相关定义,并由此得出中国央行只具有相对的独立性,这种相对的独立性影响了央行货币政策的有效程度.本文提出了一些加强改善我国央行独立性的建议,包括改革银行立法,增强中央银行操作的透明度,公开市场操作等.     

中国房地产宏观调控政策研究

快速城市化带来的刚需以及宽松的货币环境引致的投资、投机需求与紧张的城市土地供给形成的矛盾,注定会成为未来中国政府房地产宏观调控的焦点。了解宏观调控在房地产业中主要政策工具的机理和效应,有助于加深公众对宏观调控政策的认知,提高政府制定宏观经济决策的效率与科学性。从货币政策、财政政策、土地政策与行政政策等四个方面对房地产宏观调控的政策工具进行了系统梳理。认为加快推行房产税为主的财政政策、逐步制定城乡建设用地市场一体化的土地供应政策以及加快推行利率市场化的货币政策应成为未来房地产宏观调控的着力点。     

货币政策与资本市场价格关系浅议

随着我国资本市场的发展与完善,资本市场中资产价格的变动对货币供给量的影响愈来愈明显。宏观经济政策是国家为了达到一定的经济目标而对经济事务所做的有意识的干预。其中,货币政策是中央银行通过控制货币供给量以及通过货币供给量来调节利率,进而影响投资和整个经济以达到一定经济目标的行为。     

我国金融市场在货币政策传导中的作用分析

一、我国货币市场现状与货币政策传导 货币市场是金融机构调节资金头寸的重要场所.在市场经济条件下,货币市场生成并显示资金供求信号,是及时反映资金价格的窗口,对于中央银行正确制定利率政策具有重要的作用;同时,货币市场又是中央银行公开市场操作的平台,是货币政策传导的主要途径.无论是美国联邦储备银行的公开市场操作,还是德国联邦银行再贴现政策的实施,均以货币市场利率作为主要的监控指标.     

郴州房地产发展现状

房地产业关联度高，作用力强，其是否健康发展对于宏观经济全局具有举足轻重的影响。发展不足，不能充分发挥其对经济的带动作用；发展势头过猛，超出经济的承受能力，会积聚大量的风险，破坏经济安全。近年来，中央银行把加强房地产信贷管理作为货币政策微调的主要内容。为分析其政策效应，更好地引导房地产健康发展，最近，我们组织力量对郴州市房地产业房地产市场状况和银行信贷投入情况进行了调查。[编者按]     

货币政策的数量型工具与价格型工具的调控绩效比较——来自动态随机一般均衡模型的证据

本文基于我国经济发展现实,构建了包含金融加速器、工资调整粘性以及消费惯性的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,从货币政策的冲击效应、非政策冲击下宏观经济波动幅度以及中央银行损失函数等三个方面对比了不同货币工具的调控绩效,研究显示,价格型工具的调控绩效优于数量型工具,而稳健性分析也对此提供了进一步证明。因此,中央银行应积极地运用利率工具以更有效控制通货膨胀和实际产出波动,维护宏观经济稳定。     

Monetary policy transparency in a forward-looking market: Evidence from the United States

Because unsatisfactory measures of the monetary policy transparency were used, the existing literature found mixed empirical results for the relationship between the monetary policy transparency and risk/volatility. This paper extends the literature by using a recently developed monetary transparency index [Kia’s (2011) index] which is dynamic and continuous. Furthermore, the existing literature ignores the fact that market participants can be forward looking and, therefore, not policy invariant. This study also finds that the agents in the market are not policy invariant and the more transparent the monetary policy is the less risky and volatile the money market will be.     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the course of the world economy in 1988 was a product not so much of the stock market crash of October 1987 but of the reaction to the crash. Monetary policy and to a lesser extent fiscal policy were eased and consumer spending responded to cuts in interest rates and rising real incomes. With the world recovery in its sixth year, capacity pressures began to emerge and investment also boomed, helped by a lower cost of capital. As a result of this strong private sector demand, OECD output increased 4 per cent in 1988 as a whole and industrial production and world trade rose even more rapidly. Against the background of buoyant demand and output, inflationary fears have resurfaced. Since the spring monetary authorities in most countries have been tightening policy, raising interest rates by early 1989 above the levels which helped bring about the stock market crash. Their aim is to effect a slowdown in demand before a significant upward movement in inflation and inflationary expectations takes hold. In our judgement the present policy stance will achieve its aim of a "soft landing" for the world economy. The pick-up in world inflation is contained below 5 per cent and by the second half of this year inflation eases, paving the way for a relaxation of monetary policy. Output growth slows from 4 per cent to 3 percent in 1989 and 2 per cent in 1990, picking up again as interest rates are lowered in 1991–2.     

货币政策和财政政策、市场情绪与大类资产收益——基于隐性知识传播视角的解读

以货币政策和财政政策为主的宏观经济政策松紧程度不仅对大类资产收益产生直接效应,还会通过市场情绪对大类资产收益产生间接效应。通过构建基于隐性知识传播的概念模型,探究了宏观经济政策、市场情绪和大类资产收益之间的内在逻辑关系,并提出三个研究假说：宏观经济政策紧缩程度的提高会降低大类资产收益;宏观经济政策紧缩程度的提高会促进市场情绪高涨;宏观经济政策紧缩程度的提高会通过市场情绪高涨,进一步降低大类资产收益。在采用多种计量检验方法并进行稳健性检验后,检验结果都能很好地验证所提出的三个研究假说,研究结论能为我国政府制定相关宏观经济政策提供决策参考。     

The MTFS or the EMS: Which Way for Credible Monetary Policy?

Since the latter part of 1988, the primary policy objective has been to head off a rise to double digit inflation. To this end, interest rates have been raised from 7112 per cent to 14per cent, while the public sector is running a large fiscal surplus. Despite this apparently very tight policy stance, policy is deficient in a crucial respect: it lacks credibility. The all too public divisions within government have weakened the efficacy of monetary policy, especially in financial markets. The ongoing uncertainty over who is in charge of the conduct of policy - No. 10 or No. 11 - further undermines confidence. The most urgent priority must be to reassert clear priorities and guidelines. In this Viewpoint, we consider how best to restore the credibility of monetary policy. There are two main possibilities: first, to reassert the Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) in an appropriate form; or to join the (Exchange Rate Mechanism of the) European Monetary System (EMS). We argue that it will be very hard to derive credibility benefits from a reassertion of the MTFS: because of the inflation record of the past decade and the twists and turns of past versions of the MTFS, a mere restatement will not resolve the uncertainties that result from known differences within the government. In particular, any restatement will rely on discretion and judgement in its implementation and this will weaken its beneficial effects on expectations. Instead we argue that entry into the EMS offers a tougher and more credible commitment for monetary policy. The Chancellor has been pushed to rule out UK entry until the second half of 1990 at the earliest, but the government should make a virtue of this by announcing a firm dale for entry next year. In the interim, it should encourage a debate about the appropriate rate for entry, a debate which will increasingly guide the foreign exchange market. The government should make it clear that in choosing this rate it will do so with the commitment to low inflation very much in mind, favouring a high exchange rate. Once in the EMS, the government should rule out the possibility of devaluing the pound in an EMS realignment. This provides a firm non- discretionary anchor for both monetary policy and inflation expectations. With this commitment, the principal gain from EMS entry will be establishing a regime of low inflation for the next decade: in this, choice of the exchange rate will be less crucial than the fact of entry.     

Focus: The Effects on the Forecast of Oil Prices and Economic Policy

Focus: The Effects on the Forecast of Oil Prices and Economic Policy
The central forecast depends on the underlying assumptions which, because of developments in the oil market, are particularly uncertain. In order to show how the forecast might change if our assumptions on oil prices and monetary and fiscal policy were to prove incorrect, we have analysed the effect on our October 1985 forecast of changes to the key assumptions. In addition to the effects of these changes, the simulations show that our forecast for GDP has been revised up.     

证券市场的货币政策传导功能实证研究

货币政策是货币当局对经济进行宏观调控的重要工具，政策的有效性首先取决于金融领域的传导机制。长期以来我国的货币政策一直以银行信贷为主要传导枢纽，但随着资本市场的发展，其传导功能将日益强化。本文通过实证分析，建议实施货币政策时应充分考虑资本市场对货币政策传导功能的影响。     

Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies

Despite the econometric advances of the last 30 years, the effects of monetary policy stance during the boom and busts of the stock market are not clearly defined. In this paper, we use a structural heterogeneous vector autoregressive (SHVAR) model with identified structural breaks to analyse the impact of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies on U.S. stock market volatility. We find that contractionary monetary policy enhances stock market volatility, but the importance of monetary policy shocks in explaining volatility evolves across different regimes and is relative to supply shocks (and shocks to volatility itself). In comparison to business cycle fluctuations, monetary policy shocks explain a greater fraction of the variance of stock market volatility at shorter horizons, as in medium to longer horizons. Our basic findings of a positive impact of monetary policy on equity market volatility (being relatively stronger during calmer stock market periods) are also corroborated by analyses conducted at the daily frequency based on an augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model of realised volatility (HAR-RV) and a multivariate k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles framework. Our results have important implications both for investors and policymakers.     

Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice

The experience of the U.S. economy during the mid-1930s, when short-term nominal interest rates were continuously close to zero, is sometimes taken as evidence that monetary policy was ineffective and the economy was in a “liquidity trap.” Close examination of the historical policy record for the period indicates that the evidence does not support such assertions. The incomplete and erratic recovery from the Great Depression can be traced to a failure to pursue consistently expansionary policy resulting from an incorrect understanding of monetary policy in an environment of very low short-term nominal interest rates. Commonalities with the Japanese experience during the late 1990s, and the inadequacy of short-term interest rates as indicators of the stance of monetary policy are discussed and a robust operating procedure for implementing monetary policy in a low-interest-rate environment by adjusting the maturity of targeted interest-rate instruments is described.     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

The Conduct of Monetary Policy Without Monetary Aggregates

A central dilemma for the monetary authorities is how to determine monetary policy. The increasing unreliability of monetary aggregates has led over the past few years to less concern for monetary targeting, both in the UK and elsewhere, and a greater influence for the exchange rate on monetary policy. But in the UK, most recently, there has been a move away from setting monetary policy in relation to the exchange rate and external considerations in favour of setting monetary policy in relation to domestic demand. Not surprisingly, this shift has occurred at a time of rising concern about domestic overheating. It illustrates the dilemma of whether monetary policy should be driven by domestic demand considerations or by external, exchange rate considerations. This dilemma is not just confined to the UK for it is a real source of conflict underlying the Louvre Accord and its successors that seek to determine G7 exchange rates in a cooperative manner. In what follows, we argue that exchange rate developments should have an appreciable influence on monetary policy, since this is helpful in attaining stable inflation. But we also suggest that this influence should not go too far, since this stability of inflation may be at the expense of stability of domestic demand and output. Targeting of exchange rates within narrow bands is unlikely to be desirable, unless fiscal policy can be used more flexibly to stabilize domestic demand. This suggests that, in the period up to the spring, the use of monetary policy to hold the £/JDM exchange rate within narrow limits may have been overdone. More seriously, international exchange rate agreements among the G7 countries are likely to founder under adverse market pressures, unless current imbalances in fiscal policy are adjusted. In the absence of greater flexibility in fiscal policy, policy makers will have to trade off domestic and exchange rate considerations in determining monetary policy. An important outstanding issue that needs further consideration is what indicators should be used for monetary policy, in a world in which monetary aggregates provide unreliable signals.