Abstract

This paper analyzes central banks＇ balance sheets of China, America, Japan and European Union and discloses their characteristics of structures of liability and asset. It points out the default of liability structure and asset structure respectively, which results in constantly decline of central bank＇s regulation capacity. To avoid further worsening of relations between debts and assets, the People＇s Bank of China must adjust its balance sheet. The measures include： to raise the ratio of ＂issuing currency＂ among ＂Reserve money＂ and total liabilities gradually; to decrease the ration of ＂financial corporate deposits＂ and ＂issuing bonds＂; to specialize ＂the other liabilities＂; to add to the subject of ＂monetary assets＂; to decrease the amount of ＂foreign exchange assets＂ and its ratio to the total assets; to specialize ＂claims on the depositing companies＂ and ＂claims on the other financial companies＂ and increase the quantity of assets allocations to these subjects.     

Possibility of a Middle Income Trap in China： Assessment in Terms of the Literature on Innovation,Big Business and Inequality

This paper discusses the possibility of China falling into the so-called middle income trap in terms of three checkpoints： innovation capability, world-class big businesses, and inequality. Based on these criteria, our conclusions are as follows： First, China has increasingly become innovative and thus differs from other middle income countries. Second, China has many successful big businesses, a number disproportionate to its size. Thus, China differs from other middle income countries with few world-class big businesses, and the only qualification is that those big businesses are mostly non- manufacturing firms focused on such areas as finance, energy, and trading. Third, China faces great uncertainty in terms of inequality. Although several signs show that the Kuznets curve will come to represent China, as noted by the gradual reduction of surplus labor and rising wage rates starting in the coastal provinces, the Chinese are now facing new sources of inequality in China, such as wealth （including financial and real estate assets） and non-economic factors （including corruption）.     

Chinese Online Unemployment-Related Searches and Macroeconomic Indicators

Official monthly unemployment data is unavailable in China, while intense public interest in unemployment requires timely and accurate information. Using data on web queries from lead search engines in China, Baidu and Google, I build two indices measuring intensity of online unemployment-related searches. The unemployment-related search indices identify a structural break in the time series between October and November 2008, which corresponds to a turning point indicated by some macroeconomic indicators. The unemployment- related search indices are proven to have significant correlation with Purchasing Managers＇ Employment Indices and a set of macroeconomic indicators that are closely related to changes in unemployment in China. The results of Granger causality analysis show that the unemployment-related search indices can improve predictions of the c indicators. It suggests that unemploy- ment-related searches can potentially provide valuable, timely, and low-cost information for macroeconomic monitoring.     

The effect of rural labor migration on poverty alleviation： a viilage-level study in China

The construction of the new socialist countryside is being carried out in China nowadays. Although lots of successful experience has been gotten, different problems occur in various regions yet. To analyze the relationships among rural labor migration, poverty alleviation and characteristics of migrants is important in considering the effect of rural labor migration on the construction of the new. socialist countryside, Available sampling and typical case study are adopted and 236 questionnaires are collected from four villages in northwest GuangxL China, Daxin, Lixin, Longhe and Yongehang, We analyze the rural labor migration status, characteristics of migrants, remittance situation and income, household income and the ratio of remittance income to total household income. About 2/3 of the households have migrants in surveyed villages. And nearly half of the migration households have only one family member as migrants in the four villages. The migrants mainly comprise male and the younger, with the education level of junior middle school and higher More than half of the migrants are employed in Guangdong Province. But the characteristics of migrants in Yongchang are more diverse. The rural labor migration in the village is extremely active and extensive. And over 60% of the household with family members as migrants have remittance income. The rate in Yongchang is extremely high （80%）, And the income of households with migrants getting remittance income is significantly higher than their counterparts. More than half of their income comes from remittance as far as the former kind of household is concerned And in Yongchang, the rate is nearly 80%. The conclusion is that rural labor migration is popular and extensive in lots of villages. And the migration and remittance play an important role in rural household income, especially in some poor villages. For this kind of village, the rural labor migration may be some ＂compulsory course＂ in rural development. And the rural labor emigration is an essential way in     

Factors affecting profitability of multi-finance company in Indonesia

The aim of this study is to examine the profitabilily of multi-finance companies. This study uses macroeconomic determinants and fundamental variables as factors that affected profitability. The samples of the study was multifinance company in Indonesia over period 2005-2007. The study uses an unbalanced panel data as a methodology. The result suggests that, the ownership of financial assets doesn＇t significantly affect multi-finance performances. This result indicates that multi-finance face difficult situation to generate profit from the credit given. And the result also suggests that all macroeconomic determinants affect multi-finance profitability, with more concern on inflation that have negative significant.     

Experiences and Prospects of China＇s Free Economic Zones after over 20 Years

Chinese FEZs are used as the tool for opening-up policy and the structural reform as well as the growth pole for the regional economic development. It is true that no Free Economic Zones （FEZs） in the world like in China have made so strong impact on national economic development and structural reform. Due to the change of their existing condition since the middle of 1990s, Chinese FEZs have to face the new challenges and problems. This study discusses and prospects the transformation and further development of Chinese FEZs in the 21^st century as well as their significance for the transformation of FEZs in other countries based on the analysis of the indicators such as the role, policy, industrial sectors, administration, development model, spatial structure and location.     

The Impact of Climate Change on China＇s Grain Market and Food Security-- A CGE Model Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate change on China＇s grain production and food security. The research is one of the four studies on future conditions of China＇s food production system under the influence of climate change using numerical simulation methods, carried out under a national 973 project entitled ＂impacts of climate change on food systems in China and its adaptation＂. The other three studies focus on changes in cultivated land area and food production, while this study incorporates their grain yield results into a general equilibrium model to simulate future conditions of the grain market. Our simulation analysis arrives at the impact of climate change by comparing such economic variables as grain production, consumption, and GDP growth rate between a baseline scenario and two climate change scenarios. Our results are summarized as follows： （1） In 2050, the total grain production will reach 689.683 million tons--584.264 million tons of total grain consumption and 42.808 million tons of exports. Without considering losses and inventory demand, in 2050 China＇s grain supply and demand will remain well balanced, with a slight surplus expected. （2） Climate change is expected to benefit China＇s macro economy and individual sectors. In comparison with the baseline scenario of no climate change, real wage, real GDP, investment, household consumption, exports, and other macroeconomic indicators will rise under the climate change scenarios. As far as the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors are concerned, production, consumption, imports, and exports will each be favorably affected by climate change. （3） The favorable impact of climate change on China＇s macroeconomy and individual sectors under the high emissions scenario （A2） is stronger than that under the low emissions scenario （B2）. （4） In the grain market, climate change is expected to increase supply, reduce imports, increase supply, and demand; and supply will increase more than demand does. All in     

Tackle China's Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening Up: Macroeconomic Outlook,Policy Simulations,and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018-2019)

Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China's economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in China's macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4%(6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for China's transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth.     

Basel III and Central Banks With Multiple Objectives： Convergences Between Targets

This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.     

A survey of the influencing factors and models for resident＇s household waste management behavior

The problem of household solid waste has been concerned and researched on by municipalities and researchers.At present, household solid waste has been changed to management problem from technical one. From the point view ofmanagement, the research on household solid waste is to study the factors which influence resident’s behavior ofmanaging their waste. Based on the literature review, firstly, this paper summarizes those factors which have alreadybeen identified to have impact on resident’s behavior of managing their waste. They are social-demographic variables,knowledge, environmental values, psychological factors, publicity and system design. Secondly, three typical models ofthe relationship between factors and behavior, which are factors determining task performance in waste management,conceptualization of waste management behavior and the theoretical model of repeated behavior on household wastemanagement, are analyzed and the deficiencies of these models are also analyzed. Finally, according to the currentsituation in household waste management and the culture and resident’s habits in China, this paper puts forward aresearch focus and suggestions about resident’s behavior of household solid waste management.     

Present situation and countermeasure research of economic structure of Shaanxi Province

Economic structure is a significant factor impacting economic growth and economic growth quality. In this paper, the present status of economic structure of Shaanxi Province is analyzed, and available primal problem is indicated. There have been a lot of problems in economic structure of Shaanxi Province, mainly including slow tertiary industry development, comparatively grave unbalance of light and heavy industries proportion, lagged development in high and new technology industries, high industry convergence degree, low scale effect, slow agriculture expanding and so on. Meanwhile, homologous countermeasure is given in this text： we should develop tertiary industry with tourism as the leading role energetically to promote industrial hierarchy, impulse structural rationalization of foreign trade through international cooperation and competition, accelerate the industrialization, promote industrial structure upgrade, develop the high and new technology industries quickly, accelerate the promotion of industry scale effect and expedite expansion of industry colony. We should also develop superior industry, reduce industry convergence degree, and develop the agriculture energetically to promote the industrialization and modernization of agriculture. These points are given in the interest of supplying gist and reference to government in industrial structure adjusting and policy making.     

A study of factors influencing consumers＇ behavior in recycling waste household electronic appliances

The innovation of technologzv and the improvement of people＇s living standard accelerate the replacement of consumer electronic appliances, resulting in a significant increase of waste household electronic appliances （WHEA）. To address the environmental problems of WHEA, many countries have enacted legislation according to WHEA management, including collecting, processing and recycling. The regulations on the management of WHEA were also drafted in China and pilot programs of WHEA recycling management encountered difficulties in collecting WHEA. The success of a recycling scheme is dependent on people＇s willingness of participating in the scheme, This paper applies Ajzen＇s theory of planned behavior to seek the main factors to engourage consumers to participate in WHEA recycling management in China. Data from a survey conducted with a sample of 633 consumers show that service motivation is the first predictor of participation behavior intention, followed by environmental behavior attitude, economic motivation, subjective norm. and perceived behavior barrier. Environmental knowledge is found not to be the predictor of behavior intention in this recycling scheme. Study results also suggest that publicity is the key situational factor in the WHEA recycling management. Recycling network and policy have little influence on changing consumers＇ current behavior intention and participation. Implications of the findings are discussed and future research directions are suggested in the end.     

Research on financial support in new rural reconstruction

The new rural reconstruction in China cannot develop without financial support. At present, the limitations on rural finance supply constitute one of the bottlenecks in the ＂Three Nongs＂ （agriculture, countryside and farmers） problems. The paper starts from the present situation, analyses the reasons why rural finance has current difficulties and puts forward proposals for policy reform.     

Reforms on China＇s Fiscal System and Its Impact on Local Government Behavior

The fiscal system is an important part of national economic management and deals with the division of financial responsibility and power, regulates and defines the fiscal activities among different levels of governments. The changes in economic system and economic structure decide the changes of fiscal function and fiscal structure, which results in the changes in intergovernmental distribution form and local government behavior. This paper takes a look at the stages of China＇s fiscal reform process and the impacts on local government behavior, and tries to find measures for perfecting the fiscal system reform to optimize local government behavior and guarantee a healthy national economy.     

County financial ecology and the development of new socialist countryside in China

The new rural construction will involve many fields, such as the upgrade of the industrial structure of agriculture, the impravement of the efficiency in the use of agricultural resources, the increase of farmers＇ income, maintaining sustainable agricultural development, and strengthening the construction of agricultural service system and circulation system.Finance, as the core of modem economy, should serve the new rural construction. However, there are many problems about the financial system in the rural area for a long time. So it is vital to build a good county financial eco-environment to promote the development of county financial systems and give full scope to the supporting function of finance. Only when we solve the problems in rural financial ecology and make clear the government ＇s fanction and activities, the county financial environment can function and be improved. Based on the reality of county economic development and starting from the connotation of county financial ecology, this paper analyzes the status quo of county financial eco-environment, especially the significance of optimizing the county financial eco-environment under the macroscopic background that the country proposed the socialist new rural reconstruction, and proposes the opinions and suggestions to construct and the maintain county financial eco-environment.     

Return to Endogenous Financial System via Corporate Bonds

After 35 years＇ reform and development, China has established an ＂exogenous＂ financial system. This type of financial system was created outside of real economy rather than derived from its inherent demand. To improve the role of market mechanism in allocation of financial resources, China＇s financial system must be reformed to be endogenous in real economy, which means, expanding the financial options available to enterprises and households so that they can compete with financial institutions such as commercial banks in financial market. Corporate bonds, with their advantages in matching the supply and demand of funds, can play important role in cultivate the endogenous financial system com- bined with real economy.     

Analysis on China Cotton Market

China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.     

Competition and monopoly of Chinese rural groundwater market：structure and determinants

China is facing severe problem of water scarcity.Agricultural sector,the main consumer of water resource,has remarkably changed its institutions on water resource deployment,due to heavy environmental pressure.As a new and spontaneous institution,groundwater market has developed rapidly in northern China,and has impacts on waterusing behaviors and benefits of farmers.Using household survey data from Hebei and Henan in 2007,this paper attempts to pin down the development and operating of groundwater market in rural China.We focus on the monopoly and competition in the market.Empirical analysis reveals that Chinese farmers are trying to make rational decision when they compete with others in groundwater market.In general,monopoly is not fierce in Chinese rural groundwater market,with great variations among different villages and even different tubewells within one village.Tubewell costs,regulation and the density of tubewells are the main determinants that affect monopoly level of groundwater market.To make water market benefit more and more farmers of low income,corresponding policies are needed to modify its development in the future.     

Who Can Have a Piece of the Auto Credit Pie?

Buying cars on credit is nothing new in the rest of the world since it has had a history of 80 years internationally. In China, however, it is just starting. As the Chinese government is loosening up controls in this field, foreign financial institutions are busy making preparation to win a piece of the auto credit pie in China. Not to be left behind, domestic financial institutions are gearing up for a battle on the marketplace. The auto credit market in China is fast entering a Warring States period.According to a forecast, demand for motor vehices in China     

The obstacles of China＇s economic transformation

In the past 30 years, China has gone from the transformation from a planned economy to a market economy, from the extensive economic growth mode to intensive economic growth model, and from relying on investment and export-led economy to relying on domestic demand and stimulating economic. China＇s economic transformation includes three parts： The first is the reform of economic system, the second is the change in the pattern of economic growth and the third is the adjustment of economic structure. This article describes the historical evolution and the reality of China＇s economic transformation, analysis the obstacles to China＇s economic transformation, and on this basis, put forward some suggestions.