中国房地产市场金融创新研究

从我国房地产金融市场现状和房地产市场良性发展要求的角度出发,分析了我国房地产市场金融创新的方向、必要性与发展路径,以期为我国房地产资金要素市场的充分竞争和整个房地产市场良性的发展提供理论支持。     

房地产市场“乱”在哪里——访中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会副会长兼秘书长 柴强

房地产市场"乱"是正常的目前房地产市场所谓的"乱"、看不懂,是很正常的。因为影响房地产市场运行的外部环境不稳定、不确定,导致房地产市场自身规律的作用有限,特别是一些影响房地产市场走势的宏观经济政策的变化,如房地产信贷政策等的变化,人们一般是难以预料的。总之,目前影响房地产市场的外部力量很多,也很大,仅凭对房地产市场自身规律的把握是"测不准"的。我国目前可供老百姓选择的投资渠道还较少,在     

福州房市“胃口”之透析

房市“胃口”即指房地产市场的有效需求。房地产生产、流通和分配、消费的目的,都是为了满足有效需求。有效需求在房地产市场的供求经济活动中处于决定性地位。研究房地产发展,研究房地产市场的供求关系,首先应当研究房地产市场的有效需求。     

田润青:房地产私募细分市场之战

纵观2014年的房地产市场,我们可以用平稳运行来描述,房地产市场既没有出现成交量的显著下滑,也没有出现房地产价格的剧烈波动,但整个市场却出现了周期性变化的显著特征。这些特征包括:住宅价格不再坚挺、开始松动,成交量出现萎缩,库存持续增加、去化压力显著上升,市场并购金额开始放大等。这些现象都在显示房地产行业进入了一个大周期调整的前夜。房地产市场大周期调整的来临,正在深刻地影响着房地产市场的变化。2014年房地产企     

创新监管方式 推进房地产市场平稳发展

如今社会各界以及政府各个部门均期望房地产市场健康、良性的发展。作为房地产市场的重要组成部分,房地产的流通环节在其中扮演着重要的角色,彰显着房地长市场的是否成熟。因此我们就需要创新监管方式,有效的促进房地产市场的稳步发展。笔者在文中首先分析了国内房地产市场存在的问题,然后就创新监管方式进行深入的研究,以期进一步提升监管房地产市场的方式,保证其获得平稳的发展。     

浅谈我国房地产登记制度的完善

现阶段随着市场经济的快速发展,房地产市场也日益繁荣兴盛,而房地产登记制度在维护房地产市场的秩序、保证房地产交易安全方面起着至关重要的作用。我国房地产登记制度侧重于公法性,体现出国家对房地产权属关系的干预,这一点已很难适应现化社会房地产市场发展之需。本文对我国房地产登记制度进行了详细分析,并得出结论,要从法律依据、登记机关、登记效力、登记程序、权属证书的统一等方面加以完善。     

美国房地产经纪市场运行效率综述

房地产经纪市场的运行效率是房地产市场发展水平的重要标志,也是衡量其是否成熟的主要标准,研究房地产经纪市场的运行效率具有重要的意义。由于目前对我国房地产经纪市场运行效率的研究基本上处于空白,借鉴美国房地产经纪市场运行效率的研究成果,可以为开展我国房地产经纪市场运行效率的研究提供指导。     

论我国房地产市场预警系统的建立

建立房地产市场预警系统有助我们在恰当的时候采用正确的房地产宏观调控措施促进房地产市场健康发展。本文将房价收入比、房价租金比、租金收入比、房地产价格增长率与GDP增长率之比、商品房空置率5个指标作为房地产市场预警统计指标,并对它们的预警区间做出界定,然后根据每个指标的统计数据,确定警兆的警级,结合警兆的重要性进行加权综合,综合成一个指数,这样就可以用一组类似于交通信号灯的标志把当前的房地产市场状态直观地表达出来,用以判断房地产市场过热或衰退的程度,来制定房地产宏观调控的方向。     

提高认识,统一思想,坚决贯彻落实好国务院各项调控政策措施

党中央、国务院高度重视房地产市场的发展。去年以来,针对房地产市场发展中的突出问题,国务院把调控房地产市场作为国民经济宏观调控的重要内容,采取了一系列措施,对于解决市场发展中存在的问题,促进房地产市场持续健康发展起到了重要作用。当前,我国房地产市场调控工作正处于十分关键的时期。下面,我就这次宏观调控的有关问题谈几点意见,供大家参考。一、宏观调控是房地产市场持续健康发展的基本保证对房地产市场的调控是政府经济调节职能的重要组成部分。随着住房制度改革的不断深化,市场配置资源的基础性地位逐步确立,成为解决居民住房问…     

激活“永恒的产业”在政策

上海市房产经济学会会长、东方房地产学院院长桑荣林日前在上海召开的“开放、搞活房地产二、三级市场改革与实务研讨班”上就“培育房地产市场若干理论问题思考”发表了自己的观点。 一、永恒的产业 实行房地产二、三级市场联动,是全面启动住宅市场的必要举措。桑会长说,房地产与住宅是个从属概念。房地产包括了住宅与非住宅。住宅是一个品种,     

The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework

In this study, we present a simple analytic framework that divides the real estate market into two markets: the market for real estate space and the market for real estate assets. After describing the size and character of flows and stocks in the U.S. real estate market, we use our framework to demonstrate the important connections between the space and asset markets. We illustrate how these real estate markets are affected by the nation's macroeconomy and financial markets, tracing out the impacts resulting from various exogenous shocks on rents, asset prices, construction and the stock of real estate.     

Errors in Variables, Links between Variables and Recovery of Volatility Information in Appraisal-Based Real Estate Return Indexes

The present article proposes a multivariate approach to unsmoothing appraisal-based real estate return indexes to recover the true market volatility information in real estate returns. It scrutinizes the role played by errors in variables, in conjunction with an analysis of other economic activities relevant to real estate returns, to exploit the functional relationship and the mechanism of interactions between real estate returns and these economic activities. Appraisal smoothing can therefore be detected and corrected properly and efficiently, without presuming a weakly efficient real estate market. The approach is then applied to U.K. real estate indexes as empirical examples. The results suggest a reasonable volatility in U.K. real estate investment that is close to reality. It is found that the volatility of the true market return on real estate is 1.5404–1.9282 times that of the return on the appraisal-based indexes, in contrast to figures of 2.4862–5.8720 produced by the fully unsmoothing procedure.     

关于当前房地产热的冷思考

针对当前房地产“热”，从市场经济的角度分析当前房地产市场存在的供求关系和商品房价格问题等，揭示出问题存在的实质，并提出相应的解决思路。     

对发展房地产投资基金的SWOT分析

通过对房地产资金来源及我国房地产目前的融资途径分析,揭示了目前我国房地产存在的金融风险,指出发展房地产投资基金是一种可以拓宽房地产融资渠道的途径。结合当前我国房地产市场的实际情况,使用SWOT分析办法对房地产投资基金进行了综合研究。     

What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?

This paper analyzes the risks and returns of different types of real estate-related firms traded on the New York and American stock exchanges (NYSE and AMEX). We examine the relation between real estate stock portfolio returns and returns on a standard appraisal-based index, and find that lagged values of traded real estate portfolio returns can predict returns on the appraisal-based index after controlling for persistence in the appraisal series. The stock market reflects information about real estate markets that is later imbedded in infrequent property appraisals. Additional analysis suggests that the differences in the return and risk characteristics across different types of traded real estate firms can be explained in part by appealing to real estate market fundamentals relating to the degree of dependence of the real estate firm upon rental cash flows from existing buildings. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of securitized real estate-related firms.     

楼市低迷背景下政府“救市”的原因分析

2008年以来,一向只涨不跌、成交旺盛的中国楼市出现了一些引人关注的变化。在房地产市场下滑迹象的刺激下,一些地方政府悄然推出“暖市”优惠政策。文章通过对地方政府在房地产市场中的行为分析,探讨了地方政府出手“救市”的行为根源。     

Correlation Dynamics and Determinants in International Securitized Real Estate Markets

We find the correlation movements among eight developed securitized real estate markets and among their stock markets are quite synchronized over the period from 1995 through 2012. There is a high degree of correlation dependence with many of the realized correlation series subject to regime switching. Moreover, international correlations of public property returns could be significantly explained by five real estate variables that include global real estate securities market volatility, co‐existence of real estate investment trust (REIT) influence, underlying direct real estate return performance differential, real estate securities volatility differential and real estate securities market size differential after controlling for macroeconomic influence and stock market effect. The importance of the control and real estate variables in explaining the return correlations varies across the economies examined.     

房地产市场广义虚拟财富效应测度研究

中国居民的财富特征与发达国家居民的财富特征明显不同,这是由于我国房地产市场发展程度、金融市场自由化程度、住房自有率的高低、房地产市场的投机程度以及人们对待房地产财富的观念等方面的差异所导致。本文基于广义虚拟经济的视角,利用我国30个大中城市1998—2009年的季度数据,建立房地产财富效应测度模型,对广义虚拟经济条件下房地产财富效应进行了实证检验。计算结果表明:我国30个大中城市的广义虚拟房地产财富效应表现形式存在明显个体差异,大部分城市的房地产财富效应为负,30个城市的总体房地产财富效应也为负,且系数较小不显著。这表明我国近年来房价持续上涨对居民消费产生了一定的挤出效果和抑制作用,但从全国总体来看这种挤出和抑制作用并不明显。