2010年我国宏观经济研究的新进展

2010年,我国经济学者对宏观经济问题的研究取得了新的进展,在宏观经济内外需求结构性平衡、经济周期性波动、政府的供给管理与需求管理、非均衡运行中的财政政策和货币政策及其有效性、经济增长和发展的可持续性等研究领域成果丰硕。     

2009年我国宏观经济研究的最新进展

中国宏观经济问题一直为世人所关注,尤其是2009年,中国宏观经济面临诸多难题。中国经济学界对我国宏观经济问题进行了深入研究,并取得了丰硕成果,特别是在内外均衡、通货膨胀预期、经济增长路径、经济周期波动、金融危机冲击下的宏观经济走势、宏观财政政策及其效应、宏观货币政策及其效应、资源与环境约束下的可持续发展与宏观政策等问题研究上取得了新进展。     

企业市场景气循环及其与宏观景气关系的典型分析

企业市场景气循环及其与宏观景气关系的典型分析□陈建国从八十年代后期以来，我国在宏观经济的监测与预警系统研究方面作了大量的工作，具有实际意义的国民经济宏观预警系统在九十年代投入实际运用，为各经济部门掌握和利用经济信息服务于决策提供了重要的客观依据。但是...     

宏观调控的决策选择

我国经济实践中存在的诸多问题,突出的反映了宏观经济调控不尽人意。进一步深入地研究宏观调控的理论及其操作,具有重大的现实意义。本文拟就宏观经济调控的必要性,宏观调控的目标、原则以及如何调控做一点较为系统的研究,以期为宏观调控决策提供些许选择。一、宏观经济调控的必要性对于宏观经济调控必要性的认识,人们经历了从否定到肯定的过程。肯定其必要性的理由主要有以下两个方面: 第一,自由市场经济不断发生经济危机为宏观经济调控的必要性提供了反证。1776年,古典经济学派的     

中国铝工业计量经济模型及2000年预测

宏观经济的定量研究已经成为现代经济学的重要趋势.计量经济学的出现和应用,为宏观经济研究的定量化开辟了一个新领域.本文的目的是利用计量经济学技术,建立中国铝工业的宏观经济模型,以探讨这种经济研究方法在我国部门经济中应用的可行性.并利用建立的模型,对我国本世纪末铝工业的发展做出预测.计量经济学是以系统思想为基础的,其要旨在于通过对系统内外主要因素历史的考     

亚行关注的中国电力——访亚洲开发银行主任经济学家林伯强

林伯强，美国加利福尼亚大学经济学博士，专业涉及国际贸易和金融、银行与财政以及发展经济学等。现为亚洲开发银行能源部东亚及中亚局主任经济学家，参与并主持亚行确定、准备、评价、管理能源领域的贷款及技术援助项目，负责评估项目的宏观经济环境和经济可持续性，以及政策对话。林伯强的研究范围包括项目经济分析、亚行运行政策、中国宏观经济和经济政策，以及中国能源政策和应用等。近期在中国能源政策和应用方面的主要论文有《结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测：以中国电力为例》(《经济研究》2003年第5期)、《电力消费与中国经济增长：基于生产函数的研究》(《管理世界》2003年第10期)、(《电力短缺，短期措施与长期战略》(《经济研究))2004年第3期)等。     

2001～2002年宏观经济政策分析与展望

2001年宏观经济政策的重点已经转向制上经济无序，建立市场经济规则、转变政策职能和管理方式方面，新的经济增长基础逐步形成。2002年世界经济影响，我国经济将续呈现缓慢回落状态，宏观经济政策对短期目标关注度将上升，在加入了WTO的环境下，深化改革，建立规则，规范秩序方面的政策措施将进一步涉及体制的更深层面。     

理财要国际化 生活化 理智化

10月29日，主题为“财富管理之道助您应对金融风云”的汇丰银行财富论坛在京举行，汇丰银行（中国）零售银行及财富管理业务副总监李峰表示：任经历r金融危机的洗礼后，投资者希望可以更加积极地蚪拓多样化、风险分散可控的投资渠道。清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心蕾任李稻葵教授应邀出席，对吲内外宏观经济形势、来年的经济增长态势和当下FCPI、房产等热点问题发表了精辟独到的观点     

大麻产业发展动态述评——从’2001沈阳国际麻类会议看大麻产业发展

从经济、技术、安全性环保和综合利用等方面阐述了大麻研究及其产业发展的现状。主要比较了在大麻利用方面，中国与欧盟纺织与造纸的差异，提出了改进我国大麻研究及其产业化工作的建议。     

日本合纤产业竞争力的展望(概要)(四)

日本合纤产业竞争力的展望（概要）（四）天津纺织工学院李亚滨（编译）（３）化纤协会（行业）活动Ａ、基本课题①信息调查活动对内外经济方面的各种问题进行研究、统计。与内外有关团体进行协调，并交换信息。②适应国际化交流通过由日韩台行业界会谈，日欧美行业界会谈...     

Telecommunications policy-making in New Zealand during the last two decades

During the last two decades the traditional roles of the major providers of telecommunications services have changed due to internal and external economic, political, social and technological pressures. This paper, using case-study research, describes the ‘change agents’ and formal structures involved in telecommunications policy-making processes, taking note of a move towards, and need for, a coherent national communications policy. It illustrates how decisions have been made and lays the groundwork for a more detailed study of the evolutionary changes in telecommunications policy-making in New Zealand in subsequent years.     

国有企业就业弱势群体形成原因与治理对策研究——国有企业内部劳动市场的缺陷及其修复

本文通过分析传统体制下国有企业内部劳动力市场运行的低效率对下岗失业人员增多的影响，阐述了在经济转轨过程中国有企业内部劳动力市场的缺陷及其修复机制。文章认为，国有企业所依托的内部劳动力市场上的工资决定和就业政策的制度性特征，是造成目前国有企业就业弱势群体就业困难的内在原因，并提出了牺牲效率为代价而过多地使用被动的失业政策无助于从根本上解决问题。为此，应从修复内部劳动力市场运行机制入手，打通内外部劳动力市场，配套使用主动和被动的失业政策，才是减少国有企业就业弱势群体的根本途径。     

需求要素拉动经济增长省际差异性分析

在中国不同省区市,需求要素拉动经济增长作用的程度不尽相同。文章着重研究影响需求要素拉动经济增长作用发挥的主要因素,运用因子分析、聚类分析和回归分析后得出以下基本结论：整体上看,消费拉动和科技促进因子是需求拉动经济增长作用发挥的最大影响者,其次为外需拉动因子、政府干预因子和市场发育因子。在东部省区,消费拉动和科技促进因子、外需拉动因子的影响作用更为显著,而中西部地区政府干预因子影响作用则更加明显。由于需求要素拉动经济增长的省际差异性,因而其政策含义也不相同。     

Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments: How much leeway do West African nations have?

The 2008 food crisis has challenged the political legitimacy and economic efficiency of the liberalization of international agricultural trade. An alternative vision defended by the food sovereignty movement is that long-term food security cannot rely on dependency on food imports, but must be built on the development of domestic production with enough barrier protection to shelter it from world price fluctuations and unfair trading.The purpose of this paper is to look into whether the West African nations can achieve food sovereignty given their various trade commitments and other external constraints. The particularity of our approach is to combine a historical economic analysis with a political approach to food sovereignty and trade commitments.Our results suggest that external brakes on the development of food sovereignty policies are marginal, as the countries still have unused room for manoeuvre to protect their smallholder agriculture under the terms of draft World Trade Organization agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements and under the international financial institutions’ recommendations. Rather the international environment seems to be instrumented by West African states that do not manage to secure a national political consensus to drive structural reforms deemed vital and further the food security of the urban populations over the marginalized rural populations. Recently, the regional integration process has made headway with a common agricultural support and protection policy project that could herald an internal political balance more conducive to food-producing agriculture.     

Principal-principal conflicts during crisis

This paper explores principal-principal conflicts in corporate governance during times of economic crisis. We address the question: What external and internal governance mechanisms can best protect minority shareholders? Drawing on 877 publicly listed large corporations with concentrated ownership in seven Asian countries and regions, we compare different control structures between family firms and non-family firms during crisis. We find that family firms tend to choose certain control structures associated with potential principal-principal conflicts. However, these choices can be constrained by external and internal governance mechanisms. Specifically, legal institutions and presence of multiple blockholders serve as useful external and internal governance mechanisms, respectively, to constrain potential expropriation of minority shareholders.     

Evaluating internal and external knowledge sources in firm innovation and productivity: an industry perspective

Both internal knowledge – investment in internal R&D and information and communication technologies (ICT) as well as external knowledge – knowledge spillovers and active collaboration with partners are rapidly fostering firm productivity and innovation. In this study, we investigate the role of internal and external knowledge in firm productivity and innovation. In addition, we test interactions between investment in R&D and ICT as well as between knowledge spillovers and knowledge collaboration in their association to firm innovation and productivity. We use a recombinant innovation approach and four samples for firms in manufacturing, creative, ICT and science, and professional services industries during 2002–2014 and for pre-and post-crisis periods to perform our analysis. In addition to innovation and productivity, we also examine the role of internal and external knowledge as a conduit to the development of innovation internally and the co-creation of innovation with external partners. Our results lead to managerial and policy implications.     

近期中国硫磺市场分析与预测

从我国经济景气状况,财政货币政策和产业政策等方面对硫磺市场的外部经济环境形势进行了分析,重点从市场供需、产业链方面就2010-2011年硫磺市场运行状况进行了研究。文章认为,我国对进口硫磺的依存度很高但无议价话语权,化肥产业结构以及出口政策的调整使得化肥产量增速下降,硫磺的需求相应减少,预计2011年下半年国内硫磺市场仍将处在僵持阶段。     

Nonmimetic Knowledge and Innovation Performance: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries

The knowledge‐based view suggests that the innovative performance of a firm is a function of the utilization and recombination of internal and external knowledge. The process of knowledge utilization and recombination to create new products can occur internally, through research and development activities, as well as externally, by making investments in creating links with suppliers, universities, customers, and a wide range of actors in the innovation system. This study focuses on the impact of unique, nonmimetic external knowledge, which is defined as unique technological knowledge that is not tapped by other firms in the new venture's operating environment, on the new venture's innovative performance. The purpose of the research is to investigate whether firms really benefit from utilizing and recombining unique, nonmimetic knowledge in creating innovative products in a developing country context. Drawing on the knowledge‐based view and institutional theory, this study argues that entrepreneurs in their utilization and recombination of unique, nonmimetic knowledge are not always successful at creating new products. The empirical context is drawn from the Enterprise Survey produced by the Investment Climate Group of the World Bank. The findings based on a large sample of new ventures in developing countries reveal a curvilinear relationship with marginal diminishing returns between the degree of unique, nonmimetic knowledge and innovative performance. The results also show significant moderating effects of strategic product planning and economic and regulatory policy uncertainty. Specifically, strategic product planning helps in converting very unique, nonmimetic knowledge into new products. In addition, policy uncertainty can also positively moderate the process of recombining and converting unique, nonmimetic knowledge into new products. This study provides a more complete account of how unique, nonmimetic external knowledge affects innovative performance of new ventures in developing countries.     

长吉图开发开放战略的特色与道路

我国已进入以区域经济一体化为特征的区域经济协调经济发展新阶段.长吉图开发开放战略在政策和效果上都具有了新的特征,这就需要充分利用"国家战略"这个巨大的无形资产推进战略的实施,通过"开发"构建区域经济吸引力,然后通过"开放"集聚外部资源,闯出一条内外统筹协调发展的新路子.     

农村公共产品多元主体供给的制度约束——马甲村路灯供给案例研究

本文选取制度视角,以内在制度和外在制度为分析框架,对马甲村路灯供给案例进行实证研究后表明：内在制度对农村公共产品多元主体供给模式的选择将会产生重要影响,因此,尽管外在制度具有一定的强制性,但如果缺乏内在制度的配合,将难以通过外在制度有效实施。在此基础上,本文从区域经济发展层面进一步分析了现阶段多元主体供给公共产品的可取性,研究提出了“二元准公共产品”的概念,并从多维触发、重点触发和协同触发,探讨了农村公共产品多元主体供给的“触发模式”。