Exports,Imports and Income in Taiwan: An Examination of the Export Led Growth Hypothesis

Cointegration and vector autoregression are used to examine relationships among exports, imports, and income in Taiwan from 1971 to 1995. These three series are cointegrated. There is bidirectional Granger causality between exports and imports, and between imports and income. Impulse responses and variance decompositions uncover only weak links from exports to income. The export led growth hypothesis is not supported for Taiwan during this period of rapid growth. [F1, F4, O0]     

出口产品质量、出口关系存续与增长

本文检验了我国企业出口产品质量提升对企业出口关系存续及其增长率的影响。研究结果表明:企业出口产品质量升级有利于企业出口关系的存续,并能够提升其出口增长率。稳健性检验显示,更换产品质量测算方法、样本区间、计量方法等并不影响本文基本结论,且在考虑了内生性问题后,本文基本结论依然不变。从影响机制来看,产品质量升级通过增强消费者偏好提高了企业出口关系存续概率,通过增强消费者偏好以及提高出口价格促进了出口增长率提升;同时,产品质量升级还通过提高企业出口关系存活概率进一步促进了企业出口增长率的提升。最后,异质性检验结果显示,出口产品质量提高对外资企业和出口到高收入国家的企业出口关系存续的积极影响较大,而对私营企业和出口到低收入国家的出口增长率的积极影响较大。     

Export Growth and Domestic Performance

A VAR approach is used to analyze the effects of export growth on the evolution of GDP, domestic employment, and investment in 39 economies. The results strongly support the export-led growth hypothesis. Export growth affects GDP growth positively in 30 countries. In six countries, all of them inward-looking, the effects are negative. For these countries, and for these countries alone, export growth has a negative effect on the evolution of both domestic employment and investment. This also suggests the importance of the indirect effects of exports on GDP growth.     

不确定性与中国出口增长

本文针对近期中国出口波动幅度增加以及国际金融危机以来贸易出现"过度反应"的事实,利用中国对59个主要贸易伙伴的出口数据以及出口目标国的宏观经济变量,研究了外部不确定性与中国出口波动的数量关系和因果关系。研究发现:(1)从数量关系上来看,不确定性和外部冲击会对中国出口产生负面影响,而且这个影响的量级在短期内要远远大于传统上所考虑的供给、需求以及汇率因素所产生的影响;(2)使用灾难数据作为工具变量的两阶段最小二乘法估计表明,不确定性与中国出口增长存在着稳定的负向因果关系;(3)不确定性冲击对中国出口的影响具有异质性特征。这些发现意味着营造一个稳定有序的经济环境应该成为政策制定者的首要之选,而企业要着力对未来的需求形成科学有效的预判,以期对冲不确定性对出口增长的影响。     

Stochastic Growth and Factor Income Risk

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of aggregate factor income risk in a tractable version of the stochastic Romer endogenous growth model. Labor supply is endogenous. The presence of labor income risk unambiguously increases savings and growth due to precautionary motives. Households not only underaccumulate but also work less along the balanced growth path of the competitive economy when compared with the Pareto-efficient allocation. The paper also discusses distributive disturbances for the case of inelastic labor supply. Here, growth effects are negative for empirically plausible correlations of the underlying shocks.     

Export Growth and Economic Development in Colonial British America

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between tobacco and the rest of the economy in the colonial Chesapeake to test the staple theory version of the export-led growth hypothesis. The paper adopts a multivariate time-series approach which accommodates the presence of cointegration and contemporaneous correlations among innovations. The empirical evidence strongly supports the staple theory. British demand for tobacco is statistically exogenous and found to induce cyclical fluctuations in the colonial price of tobacco as well as temporary over- or underproduction, as measured by a long-term cointegration relationship between the British demand for tobacco and the colonial price of land.     

Growth and Income Distributions in Four EU Economies

Dynamic multi-sectoral and multi-household general equilibrium models are constructed to show how the economies of Germany, France, Spain and the United Kingdom will evolve from 2006 to 2090. These models generate dynamic paths of investment and capital accumulations, demand and supply across production sectors, consumption and welfare of households, relative prices of goods and services, revenue and expenditure of governments, exports, imports, and trade balance consistent with the dynamic general equilibrium in these economies. The models show that inequalities in income distribution among households will not decrease but widen if the current mix of direct and indirect taxes continues in all four countries. Growing inequalities in these economies justify further investments in education and skills.     

Export strategies in the computer industry: Japan and the USA

Japan's computer manufacturers realize that they need more than a new generation of software (or hardware) for success in world markets. The missing ingredients are primarily multinational busines experience factors, which have worked to the past advantage of US companies. Japan's past export successes — textiles, steel, consumer electronics—have come with products that, unlike computers, could be sold through existing distribution channels. Realizing their disadvantages in selling computer systems worldwide, the Japanese designed the heavily publicized fifth-generation project seeking technology that could serve as a wedge into markets where US-based multinationals had already become firmly entrenched. For this as for other joint government-industry R&D projects in Japan, the indirect effects will be at least as important as the technological outcomes; asking whether the fifth-generation project could have reached particular technical objectives poses the wrong question. In terms of technological capability, Japan could emerge as a formidable rival of the USA in world computer markets. Given the international presence of US companies large and small, this will not be as quick or as easy as in other Japanese export industries: Japan will continue to have far more difficulty exporting computer systems than VCRs or integrated circuits.     

Export strategies in the computer industry: Japan and the USA

Japan's computer manufacturers realize that they need more than a new generation of software (or hardware) for success in world markets. The missing ingredients are primarily multinational busines experience factors, which have worked to the past advantage of US companies. Japan's past export successes — textiles, steel, consumer electronics—have come with products that, unlike computers, could be sold through existing distribution channels. Realizing their disadvantages in selling computer systems worldwide, the Japanese designed the heavily publicized fifth-generation project seeking technology that could serve as a wedge into markets where US-based multinationals had already become firmly entrenched. For this as for other joint government-industry R&D projects in Japan, the indirect effects will be at least as important as the technological outcomes; asking whether the fifth-generation project could have reached particular technical objectives poses the wrong question. In terms of technological capability, Japan could emerge as a formidable rival of the USA in world computer markets. Given the international presence of US companies large and small, this will not be as quick or as easy as in other Japanese export industries: Japan will continue to have far more difficulty exporting computer systems than VCRs or integrated circuits.     

Money,Income and Causality: Korea and Japan

Clearly understanding the true causal relationships among macroeconomic variables is essential for model specification and the selection of policy variables. The purpose of this comparative study is to analyze the casual relationships among macroeconomic variables—more specifically, between money and income in Korea and Japan. Empirical findings of two countries show the casual relationships between money and income which are different from each other and inconsistent with Mundell's suggestions. However, these inconsistencies might be explained theoretically through the different economic structures and situations of each country. [200]     

税收、收入不平等和内生经济增长

企业家(通过金融中介)从家庭借贷来支撑创新。二者在企业家的努力不为外人所见的情形下双方签订信用合同分享创新带来的垄断利润(即蛋糕)。两个有代表性经济人(企业家和家庭)的存在允许人们在内生经济增长模型里研究收入不平等。本文研究发现,企业家分配份额的增加一开始会提升增长速度,但是过了一定值后会拉低增长速度;而该份额的增加一直拉大企业家和工人间的收入差距。所以降低企业家获得的蛋糕的份额的分配改革可缩小收入差距。提高企业家来自创新的收入的税率将降低他们的努力程度,从而降低增长速度,但是该税率的提高有助于降低收入不平等程度。存款收入的税率提高尽管不会改变企业家的努力程度,但是也会降低经济增长速度,而且不会降低收入不平等(如果工人有一定比例的存款)。对于劳动收入(工人工资)的税率增加会加剧工人和企业家间的收入不平等,但对经济增长速度没有影响。     

经济增长、腐败与收入不平等

本文利用我国1978²012年的时间序列数据,研究了经济增长和腐败对收入不平等的影响。研究发现,腐败扩大了居民收入差距,而经济增长则有利于缩小收入分配差距。因此,通过预防和惩治腐败,减少行政权力对经济和社会资源的垄断,降低行政权力对市场的干预力度,稳步推进政治体制改革,加强对行政权力的民主监督;同时,继续深化市场化改革,加快经济发展,提高居民收入占国民收入的比重,是缩小收入分配差距的关键。     

Corruption, Income Distribution, and Growth

This paper uses an encompassing framework developed by Murphy et al. (1991, 1993) to study corruption and how it affects income distribution and growth. We find that (1) corruption affects income distribution in an inverted U-shaped way, (2) corruption alone also explains a large proportion of the Gini differential across developing and industrial countries, and (3) after correcting for measurement errors, corruption seems to retard economic growth. But the effect is far less pronounced than the one found in Mauro (1995). Moreover, corruption alone explains little of the continental growth differentials. In countries where the asset distribution is less equal, corruption is associated with a smaller increase in income inequality and a larger drop in growth rates.     

Economic Integration,Growth and Income Distribution

This paper constructs a two‐sector growth model with heterogeneous labour, to explore the impact of the economic integration on growth and income distribution. There are two sectors in each country, including the consumption‐good sector and the R&D sector. We suppose that the R&D sector produces new blueprints or ideas for these innovations, and hence provides the engine of growth. Assume that the talent's distribution of workers is the uniform distribution. We show that the economic integration will stimulate the developing countries' economic growth and then decrease its income inequality. In addition, we also demonstrate that if the growth rate of the advanced country rises after the integration, then income inequality of that will increase, and vice versa.     

中国制造业的垂直专业化与出口增长

基于Hummelsetal.(2001)的分析框架,本文利用OECD(2009)提供的投入产出数据库,测算了中国制造业的垂直专业化水平,估计了中国制造业出口增长的来源,并与31个其他经济体进行了比较。测算结果表明:(1)中国制造业的垂直专业化水平较低,但增长迅速,从1995年的0.151上升到2005年的0.261,增长了72.39%,高于绝大多数国家和地区;(2)中国高技术制造业的垂直专业化水平从1995年的0.177,提高到2005年的0.411,增长了131.5%,几乎高于所有其他国家和地区。对制造业出口增长来源的估计发现:(1)中国制造业出口增长的28.85%来自国外增加值的贡献,高于所有的发展中国家,但比大多数发达国家低;(2)中国高技术制造业出口增长的41.2%来自国外增加值的贡献,高于所有发展中国家,超过或接近多数发达国家。     

日本实行重大技术出口审查机制综述

在技术出口审查方面,日本政府不仅建立了较为完善的法律法规体系,而且形成了一整套审查程序。在审查过程中,日本将中国视为其技术出口管制的重点对象。60多年来,虽然国际环境和形势不断发生变化,但日本针对中国实施的严格的技术出口审查和管制政策一直延续至今。     

Economic Growth and Income Support Policy in Australia*

This paper examines the growth in welfare spending in Australia over the 20 years from the early 1960s to the early 1980s. Particularly for pensioners and beneficiaries with children, the levels of benefit and high tax rates implicit in the tax and social security systems are shown to create disincentives over wide ranges of private income. A careful examination of the evidence indicates that more generous levels of benefits had a modest but significant part in the growth of unemployment since 1970. The paper concludes by suggesting that the efficiency costs of meeting society's distributional objectives can be minimized by targeting assistance to the most needy and by the careful use of income testing.     

Thirlwall’s Law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities

The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of income elasticities used in Thirlwall's law to approximate a country's long-term growth and to see empirically how non-constancy will affect these predictions. For this purpose, three countries - Canada, New Zealand and the UK - are analysed, using annual time series data from 1973 to 1995. These three countries were chosen on the basis of their contrasting trade patterns. The results obtained are different for each country but they still suggest the predictive power of one of the two specifications of Thirlwall's law is good.     

中国出口贸易利益测算与行业差异分析——基于出口收入指数的方法

本文以出口收入指数方法为基础构建出口收入份额指标,计算和分析了2001-2009年期间中国出口的相对贸易利益及其分行业状况。中国在世界平均出口收入指数中的相对份额虽然呈现出一定的上升趋势,但主要是在低技术行业依靠出口规模而获取贸易利益,在高技术行业中国获得的市场份额和贸易利益都很少。面板数据计量检验显示,中国制造业各行业出口收入份额与技术投入、资本和劳动要素投入比例呈现较弱的正相关关系,与外资进入以及参与产品内分工的程度呈现较显著的正相关关系。中国欲摆脱以代工方式加入全球价值链而赚取低廉代工费的现实处境,须致力于物质资本和人力资本积累,提高自主创新能力,从而形成以技术为主导的竞争优势。     

日本食品、农产品出口标识政策浅析

本文分析近年来日本在食品、农产品贸易政策中所推行的新举措和对我国的启示.