Endogenous business cycles and systematic stabilization policy*

We study the effects of fiscal policy rules on the determinacy of rational expectations equilibrium in a perfectly competitive monetary model with constant returns. Government spending implies a distortion of the monetary steady state due to the implied taxation. We show that policy rules that let the GNP share of government spending depend sufficiently negatively on increases in GNP stabilize the economy with respect to endogenous fluctuations for arbitrarily little distortion of the steady state at which stabilization occurs. The rules do not involve lump‐sum taxation, negative income taxation, or exact knowledge of the economy's laissez‐faire steady state.     

Government size,composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil

The performance of the fiscal policy is largely affected by the relationship between government size, composition of public spending and economic growth. We use a theoretical framework to find optimal relations among these variables and confront them with a panel data for the Brazilian states. Private capital and government spending are substitute inputs in production as the Brazilian states require provision of public spending to fill gaps in the underdeveloped private sector. Public investment and current government expenditures are combined in fixed ratios in the overall government spending due to strong rigidity of the public budget. The optimal share of public investment is considerably lower than current expenditures, as occurs in developing countries characterized by low economic dynamism. Finally, the average tax burden from the data is below the estimated optimal level, meaning that there is space for increasing tax rate without harming economic growth for some Brazilian states.     

USE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR A SHORT-TERM ECONOMETRIC MODEL: 1954–1966

A quarterly macro-econometric model of Japan's postwar economy has been constructed for the period 1954–1965 FY on the basis of standardized quarterly national income accounts. The model is designed for facilitating short-term economic forecasting and formulating adequate fiscal and monetary policy. Longer-term factors such as labor mobility, technical progress, etc., were also considered in the model.
The model consists of fifty-three equations related to most of the macroeconomic variables in both money and real terms, and the equations were estimated in principle by the limited information maximum likelihood method. Principal exogenous variables related to policy instruments are government expenditures including transfers, parameters of tax functions, interest rate, and prices and fares controlled by the government, etc. In formulating the model, non-linear specifications were used whenever found necessary.
Results of our testing on its predictive capability indicated fairly satisfactory performances for our observation period and also for 1966 FY. Multipliers related to fiscal and monetary policy were also obtained, indicating the dynamic characteristics of the Japanese economy, in particular, represented by dynamic business fixed investment, as compared with corresponding multipliers of the U.S. models.
Although the model is exploratory and to serve as a core for a more disaggregated "Master Model," the usefulness of the model for our purposes and the workability of our quarterly national accounts data for model-building have been recognized. The quarterly data, however, still remain to be improved especially in regard to consistency between income and expenditure and integration with flow-of-funds accounts.     

TOTAL INCOMES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1946–1976: A SUMMARY REPORT

Extended accounts of total income and product and associated capital stocks for the United States, in current and constant dollars, are offered for the years 1946 to 1976. They include intangible and tangible capital accumulation and non-market and market outputs in all sectors, services of government and household capital and of unpaid household labor, and opportunity costs of students. Defense and police services are classified as intermediate product; a portion of commercial media services is counted as final product. Expenses related to work are subtracted while the values of employee training and human capital formation and net revaluations of existing tangible capital are added.
Total incomes (TISA) net national product was 50 percent greater than official Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) NNP in 1976. BEA gross private domestic investment was only about 18 percent of TISA gross capital accumulation. Intangible investment and TISA net domestic capital accumulation grew more rapidly than BEA net private domestic investment. Household investment has been growing while there have been sharp declines in government investment, particularly in research and development. Contrary to some views of the import of the narrower BEA accounts, total capital accumulation appears to have risen considerably more rapidly than total consumption, 6.3 percent versus 2.2 percent per annum from 1946 to 1976, thus increasing sharply its share of TISA GNP.     

政府职能与投资体制——基于国际数据及经验的分析

政府职能范围对投资体制的形成确定具有决定性作用.政府职能、发展阶段、发展战略、经济结构等因素与投资体制存在动态循环作用.未来投资体制将出现:(1)政府参与投资的领域将逐步集中于公共事务;(2)公共投资领域中也将逐步引入市场运作机制;(3)投资的宏观调控方面将以间接方式为主;(4)直接融资相对规模将提高,间接融资相对规模将下降,财政资金相对规模可能呈倒U形变化;(5)投资中介机构的地位和作用将加大.     

Public Spending and Private Investment: Evidence From Greece

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there is a link between disaggregated measures of government expenditures and private investment in Greece. A cointegration analysis of a multivariate system of equations is applied in order to empirically estimate the long run relationships between private investment and different measure of government expenditures. Subsequently IRF and VDC are estimated. Government investment is found to assert a positive effect on private investment, supporting in this way the capital accumulation process. On the other hand, government consumption appears to compete for the same resources with government investment, while it negatively affects private investment. [E62]     

地方政府支出有偏性、企业融资约束与经济结构失衡

文章基于地方政府视角下困扰当前中国经济增长的结构性现实问题，根据1993—2012年的中国省际年度数据，借鉴 Bernanke 等(1999)和 Fernández-Villaverde(2010)的分析思路，运用动态随机一般均衡模型，实证研究了经济结构失衡①与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加之间的内在逻辑关系。研究发现：(1)伴随着经济增长，东、中、西部的社会投资占 GDP 的比重不断地提高，而居民消费和劳动收入占 GDP 的比重则呈下降趋势，这些经济结构失衡的表现与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加是共存的。(2)通过对大企业模型、中小企业模型和粘性价格模型进行的模拟比较分析发现，地方政府发展经济的目的促使其支出行为表现为有偏性，引发了政府投资较大幅度的增加；基于融资约束，中小企业的投资增幅不大，而大企业投资高涨，引致了地方经济结构失衡的加剧，而在这传导机制中政府投资的正外部性、企业融资约束和金融摩擦担当重要角色。     

Fiscal position and the financing of productive government expenditures: an application to Latin America

Government spending on public infrastructure, education, and health care can increase economic growth. However, the appropriate financing depends on a country’s fiscal position. We develop a two-sector endogenous growth model to explore how variations in the composition and financing of government expenditures affect economic growth. We find that, when tax rates are moderate, funding public investment by raising taxes may increase long-run growth. If existing tax rates are high, public investment is only growth enhancing if funded by restructuring the composition of overall public spending. Additionally, public investment that is debt financed can have adverse effects on long-run growth due to the resulting increases in interest rates and debt-servicing costs.     

The size and composition of government expenditure

This paper tests several leading hypotheses on determinants of government expenditure. The purpose is to avoid omitted variables bias by testing the prominent theories in a comprehensive specification, to identify persistent puzzles for the current set of theories, and to explore those puzzles in greater depth by looking at the composition of government expenditure and the level of government at which it takes place as well as its magnitude. Using Government Financial Statistics data from the IMF covering over 100 countries from 1970–2000, I look at cross-sectional and inter-temporal variation in government expenditure and both individual categories of expenditure (such as defense, education, health care) and different levels of government (central, and local). Among other results, I find a new explanation for Wagner's Law, widespread evidence that preference heterogeneity leads to decentralization rather than outright decreases in expenditures, that a great deal of the expenditure associated with increased trade openness is not in categories that explicitly insure for risk, and evidence that both political access and income inequality affect the extent of social insurance.     

MODELING AND MEASURING THE ECONOMIC ROLES OF TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Designing and managing an economy's technology infrastructure requires both accurate economic models and data to drive them. Previous models treat technology as a homogeneous entity, thereby precluding assessing investment barriers affecting infrastructure elements. The model presented overcomes this deficiency by disaggregating the knowledge production function into key elements of the typical industrial technology based on the distinctly different investment incentives associated with each element. Without such a model, the economist's ability to assess important market failures associated with investment in the major technology elements, including those with infrastructure (public-good) characteristics, is compromised. Unfortunately, even with the correct knowledge production function, the required data are difficult to collect. This forces government agencies, which fund a majority of technology infrastructure research, to use second-best approaches for economic analyses. The second half of this paper therefore presents an analytical framework that can be driven by more accessible data and provide reasonable impact assessments until better data become available.     

Effects of government expenditure on private investment: Canadian empirical evidence

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between government expenditures and private investment in Canada during the period 1961 to 2000. To this end, effects of five categories of government expenditures on investment are examined within the cointegration and error-correction framework. The empirical results show that government expenditure on education and health has positive effects whereas government expenditures on capital and infrastructure have negative effects on private investment. The other expenditure categories, including government expenditure on protection of persons and property, expenditure on debt charges, and expenditure on government and social services have no significant effects on private investment.I wish to thank Baldev Raj for his valuable comments on this study which have led to an important improvement in the paper. I would also like to thank my colleagues Tomson Ogwang, Paul Bowles, Jalil Safaei, and an anonymous referee for their comments. However, the usual disclaimer applies.First version Received: May 2002/Final version received:20 May 2004     

PROFIT MARGINS INQUIRY: Note on alternative hypotheses as to the determination of Profit Margins

This paper surveys the various accounts offered by Marxian economists for the ending of the long postwar boom. All focus on the decline in profitability, but they offer different expalanations. Three principal categories of crisis theory are distinguished: underconsumption; Marx's ‘Volume III’ falling rate of profit analysis; and several versions of overaccumulation theory, in particular the French regulation school and the North American discussion of the social structure of accumulation. A separate section deals with the relationship between the capitalist state and the crisis. Some general conclusions are drawn concerning the current nature of Marxian economic theory.     

Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy

This paper investigates the Keynesian view and the Wagner’s Law on the role of public expenditure on economic growth for Malaysia (1970–2004). The empirical results using the Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the ‘bounds test’ (Pesaran et al. in J Appl Econ 16:289–326, 2001) showed evidence of a long run relationship between total expenditures (including expenditures on defense, education, development and agriculture) and Gross National Product. The results also show that with the structural break in 1998, the long run causality is bi-directional for GNP and expenditures on administration and health, supporting both Keynes view and Wagner’s Law. For all other expenditure categories the long run causality runs from GNP to the expenditures, which supports Wagner’s Law. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Government spending and economic growth in the OECD countries

Using panel data from 1995 to 2011 for 34 OECD countries, we examine the effects of government consumption spending, public social spending, and public investment on economic growth. We use a generalized method of moments estimation technique to solve inconsistency problems with fixed effects and random effects panel estimation. We find that an increase in public social spending has a significant negative effect on subsequent economic growth. Government consumption spending and public investment have no significant effect on subsequent economic growth.     

EXPANDING IMPUTED VALUES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS*

After defining economic activity the author lists the chief types of non–market economic activities for which he has prepared estimates for the United States 1929–1973, and briefly describes his methodology and data sources. Some major findings are: (1) As of 1973 GNP adjusted to include the additional imputations was 63.5 percent larger than the official estimate. (2) At least since 1929 imputed values have grown faster than official GNP, especially when both are measured in terms of real factor costs. (3) The personal sector comprises a far larger portion of the national economy-almost one-third—when account is taken of imputed labor and property compensation, and its relative importance has grown. (4) Gross government product is more than 60 percent higher when the imputed rental value of public property is added to the compensation of general government employees. (5) Reflecting the relative growth of non-business wealth, imputed property income has risen much faster than monetized property income. This has mitigated the decline in the property share of expanded gross national income compared with its share in the official estimates.     

Revisiting the accelerator principle in a world of uncertainty: Some empirical evidence

This contribution builds on the accelerator model to produce an investment function in which employment and households' investment are used as proxies for economic activity. This analysis identifies a positive correlation between corporate investment in fixed assets and households' investment in dwellings. Using a panel of 11 OECD countries for the period 1970–2010, the results also confirm that oil prices and interest rates may dampen firms' investment in fixed assets. An interesting feature of this investment function is that it accounts for uncertainty.     

EQUILIBRIUM LENDING MECHANISM AND AGGREGATE ACTIVITY*

We construct a model of the credit market where financial contracting is subject to costly state verification and moral hazard. The economy's aggregate activity and its equilibrium lending mechanism are determined jointly. We analyze how changes in the model's exogenous variables, including the returns of the economy's investment projects and the supply of loans, affect the economy's aggregate output and the types of the credit through which investment is funded.     

Optimal military spending in the US: A time series analysis

This paper extends previous work on the optimal size of government spending by including nested functional decompositions of military spending into consumption and investment. Post World War II US data are then used to estimate nested non-linear growth models using semi-parametric methods. As expected, investments in military and non-military expenditure are both found to be productive expenditures with respect to the private production. Moreover there is little evidence to suggest that current military spending is having a negative impact on economic growth in the US, while civilian consumption only tends to have only a weak impact. This does not imply that society will necessarily benefit from a reallocation of more spending to the military sector, nor that it is the best way to achieve economic growth.     

Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test

The paper analyzes the impact on economic growth of public investment spending and other relevant variables (such as human capital) for nine major Latin American nations over the 1983–93 period. The results suggest that both public and private investment spending contribute to economic growth. Overall central government consumption expenditures, on the other hand, are found to have a negative effect on private investment and growth. Finally, public expenditures on education and healthcare are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on private capital formation and long–term economic growth. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that indiscriminate cuts in public and private investment spending are likely to be counterproductive in the long run, and more importantly, scarce public expenditures should be channeled to the promotion of new human capital (via primary and secondary education) and the maintenance of existing human capital (through healthcare expenditures).     

AN EXTENDED MEASURE OF GOVERNMENT PRODUCT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE UNITED STATES, 1946–76

Expanded measures of government output include imputed values of the services of government capital, uncompensated factor services of military draftees and jurors, and net revaluations, as well as the usually included compensation of employees. The government output is allocated to consumption, capital formation and product intermediate to other sectors, on the basis of its classification in ten broad functions: defense, space research, education, health, sanitation, transportation, parks and recreation, natural resources, welfare, and general administration. Final government product in 1976, including $116 billion in defense and $125 billion in education, amounted to $450.5 billion, which was 26.5 percent of the 1976 GNP. This final government product corresponded to the BEA measure of $191.6 billion.
Total capital formation related to government is defined to include both government product which enters into capital formation in other sectors and government expenditures for its own capital accumulation. After a more rapid rate of growth in previous years, this total government capital formation in the United States in 1976 is found to exceed gross private domestic investment. A significant but only minor portion was found to be constituted by government expenditures for capital goods and change in government inventories. Investment in research and development, health and, particularly, education and training, were dominant components in capital formation related to government.