Investment opportunities and market reaction to capital expenditure decisions

In this study, we argue that share price reaction to a firm's capital expenditure decisions depends critically on the market's assessment of the quality of its investment opportunities. We postulate that announcements of increases (decreases) in capital expenditures positively (negatively) affect the stock prices of firms with valuable investment opportunities. Contrarily, we predict that announcements of increases (decreases) in capital spending negatively (positively) affect the share prices of firms without such opportunities. Our empirical results are generally consistent with these predictions. Overall, empirical evidence supports our conjecture that it is the quality of the firm's investment opportunities rather than its industry affiliation which determines the share price reaction to its capital expenditure decisions.     

Investment and Abandonment Decisions with Uncertain Price and Cost

We analyze firms' investment and abandonment decisions when both output price and investment cost change stochastically. The model allows for and makes endogenous the abandonment decision, thereby incorporating irreversibility. We show that the investment trigger may be much higher than the standard net present value rule suggests even when a substantial portion of the investment cost may be recovered. Further, we argue that the correlation between output price and investment costs significantly affects the effect of irreversibility on investment behavior. Empirical implications are discussed with extensive numerical illustrations, along with an application to the banking industry.     

Investors’ distraction and strategic repricing decisions

In this paper I analyze investors’ reactions to changes in the expense ratios of equity mutual funds. I show that investment flows’ response to fees cannot be fully explained by looking at investors’ performance sensitivity. While performance sensitivity monotonically increases with past performance, price sensitivity does not: investors who buy top past performers seem to be “distracted” by the fund’s previous return and pay relatively little attention to the expense ratios. Moreover price sensitivity increases with fund visibility while performance sensitivity decreases, and while looking at data from 1986 to 2006 no discernible trend can be observed in the average performance sensitivity, price sensitivity strongly increases due to the dramatic increase in the availability of mutual funds’ information for retail investors. Finally I show that investment companies strategically time their repricing decisions in order to exploit time variations in price and performance sensitivities, and that fund governance quality affects the degree to which investment companies engage in this opportunistic behavior.     

Accounting policy decisions and capital market research

This paper examines methodological problems in measuring the capital market impact of accounting policy decisions. Topics covered include the development of hypotheses about the magnitude and timing of capital market impacts, sample selection issues in control group designs, and the confounding events problem. Reference is made to capital market studies on a variety of accounting policy decisions. Empirical evidence related to studies on the capital market impact of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 19 is also presented.     

Heterogeneity in asset allocation decisions: Empirical evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the heterogeneity in asset allocation decisions of different investor groups in response to changes in the macroeconomic environment. Using a new data set that includes the monthly portfolio holdings of private, commercial, and institutional investors deposited with Swiss banks, we estimate the relationship between equity and bond holdings and common business cycle indicators. Regression analysis indicates that private investors do not systematically move from stocks into bonds by selling stocks to institutional investors and purchasing bonds from them in adverse macroeconomic states. A VAR-error correction framework including cointegration and error correction restrictions suggests that the investment behavior of commercial investors leads and private investors follow in their investment decisions only slowly over time. The asset allocation decisions of institutional investors are not affected by the actions of private and commercial investors. Our results refute a principle of “institutional irrelevance”.     

Oil price uncertainty and stock price informativeness: Evidence from investment-price sensitivity in China

We study the effects of oil price uncertainty (OPU) on stock price informativeness based on investment-price sensitivity. Using Chinese stocks from 2008 to 2021, we find a negative relationship between OPU and the strength of Tobin's q (a standardized measure of prices) for predicting investment opportunities. This finding is likely due to the crowding out of informed investors rather than the financial constraints brought by a higher cost of capital. Investment-price sensitivity also decreases more among firms in less-competition, high sales volatility, and lower analysts' attention. What is more, the reduction in investment-price sensitivity is more concentrated in public utilities, agriculture & livestock, and industry instead of in real estate or commerce industries. These findings indicate that OPU decreases the acquisition of information related to firms, and consequently, price informativeness for future investment decisions.     

基金经理更换、股票联动与股票价格

基金经理更换打破了基金共同持股投资组合中股票的关联性,降低了股票收益率相关性,进而影响了股票价格。本文基于基金共同持股和基金经理更换构建了对冲投资组合,获得0.1%的日超额收益率。基金投资组合中股票收益率相关性能够解释这种超额收益率,本文发现基金更换经理后,新基金经理重建投资组合,打破了原投资组合中股票间的关联,股票收益率相关性减弱,基金共同持股程度高的股票价格受到了更大影响。基金的被动流动性冲击不能解释本文的发现。本文的研究表明基金经理变更等基金管理行为通过股票收益率相关性对股票价格产生了重要影响。     

Inventories, employment and hours

This paper develops a model that integrates inventory and labor decisions. We extend a model of inventory behavior to include a detailed specification of the role of labor input in the production process, distinguishing between employment, hours and effort per worker. We estimate jointly the Euler equations for inventories and employment, a labor compensation schedule, and an hours requirement function with the cross-equation restrictions imposed. The econometric results shed light on several important topics, including the shape of the marginal cost of output, the role of labor hoarding as an explanation of pro-cyclical productivity, and the persistence of inventory stocks.     

Inventories,rational expectations,and the business cycle

The simplest macroeconomic models in which markets clear instantaneously, and expectations are rational preclude the existence of ‘business cycles’, that is, of serially correlated deviations of output from trend. This paper studies one of several mechanisms that can be used to make these so-called ‘new-classical’ models produce business cycles; the mechanism is the gradual adjustment of inventory stocks. Two macroeconomic models of inventory holdings are formulated. Both imply, first, that current output should be a decreasing function of the stock of inventories and, second, that inventories, once perturbed from equilibrium levels, should adjust only gradually. These two features are then embedded into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model in which markets clear instantaneously and expectations are rational. Two principal conclusions are reached. First, disturbances such as unanticipated changes in money will set in motion serially correlated deviations of output from trend. Second, if desired inventories are sensitive to the real interest rate, then even fully anticipated changes in money can affect real variables.     

Reprint of Investors’ distraction and strategic repricing decisions

In this paper I analyze investors’ reactions to changes in the expense ratios of equity mutual funds. I show that investment flows’ response to fees cannot be fully explained by looking at investors’ performance sensitivity. While performance sensitivity monotonically increases with past performance, price sensitivity does not: investors who buy top past performers seem to be “distracted” by the fund’s previous return and pay relatively little attention to the expense ratios. Moreover price sensitivity increases with fund visibility while performance sensitivity decreases, and while looking at data from 1986 to 2006 no discernible trend can be observed in the average performance sensitivity, price sensitivity strongly increases due to the dramatic increase in the availability of mutual funds’ information for retail investors. Finally I show that investment companies strategically time their repricing decisions in order to exploit time variations in price and performance sensitivities, and that fund governance quality affects the degree to which investment companies engage in this opportunistic behavior.     

Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach

Abstract

By experimentally inducing risk aversion, overconfidence in an investment setting is investigated, comparing the evaluation of actual investment decisions with alternative choices. After selecting their own investment, subjects confront three alternative investment choices, including the optimal one, and are asked about their willingness to pay and to substitute their own for alternative choices. Overconfidence is defined as the persistent overevaluation of the own investment decision. Results indicate that overconfidence increases (i) with the absolute deviation from optimal choices, (ii) with task complexity involving the number of risky assets, and (iii) decreases with individual perceived uncertainty.     

Time to wealth goals in capital accumulation

This paper considers the problem of investment of capital in risky assets in a dynamic capital market in continuous time. The model controls risk, and in particular the risk associated with errors in the estimation of asset returns. The framework for investment risk is a geometric Brownian motion model for asset prices, with random rates of return. The information filtration process and the capital allocation decisions are considered separately. The filtration is based on a Bayesian model for asset prices, and an (empirical) Bayes estimator for current price dynamics is developed from the price history. Given the conditional price dynamics, investors allocate wealth to achieve their financial goals efficiently over time. The price updating and wealth reallocations occur when control limits on the wealth process are attained. A Bayesian fractional Kelly strategy is optimal at each rebalancing, assuming that the risky assets are jointly lognormal distributed. The strategy minimizes the expected time to the upper wealth limit while maintaining a high probability of reaching that goal before falling to a lower wealth limit. The fractional Kelly strategy is a blend of the log-optimal portfolio and cash and is equivalently represented by a negative power utility function, under the multivariate lognormal distribution assumption. By rebalancing when control limits are reached, the wealth goals approach provides greater control over downside risk and upside growth. The wealth goals approach with random rebalancing times is compared to the expected utility approach with fixed rebalancing times in an asset allocation problem involving stocks, bonds, and cash.     

Inventory investment and the cost of capital

We examine the relation between inventory investment and the cost of capital in the time series and the cross section. We find consistent evidence that risk premiums, rather than real interest rates, are strongly negatively related to future inventory growth at the aggregate, industry, and firm levels. The effect is stronger for firms in industries that produce durables rather than nondurables, exhibit greater cyclicality in sales, require longer lead times, and are subject to more technological innovation. We then construct a production-based asset pricing model with two types of capital, fixed capital and inventories, to explain these empirical findings. Convex adjustment costs and a countercyclical price of risk lead to negative time series and cross-sectional relations between expected returns and inventory growth.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

We examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm-specific crash risk. Based on a large sample of Chinese listed firms over the period from 2000 to 2017, we provide empirical evidence that firms are more likely to experience stock price crashes when EPU increases. Cross-sectionally analysis further reveals that the impact of EPU on stock price crash risk is stronger for firms whose returns are more sensitive to EPU. More specifically, young stocks, small stocks, high volatility stocks, and growth stocks, which have higher valuation uncertainty per se, are more sensitive to EPU and are more affected by EPU in terms of crash risk. We further show that EPU is significantly and positively associated with aggregated stock price crash risk at the market level.     

Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics

This paper provides a competitive equilibrium model of capital structure and industry dynamics. In the model, firms make financing, investment, entry, and exit decisions subject to idiosyncratic technology shocks. The capital structure choice reflects the tradeoff between the tax benefits of debt and the associated bankruptcy and agency costs. The interaction between financing and production decisions influences the stationary distribution of firms and their survival probabilities. The analysis demonstrates that the equilibrium output price has an important feedback effect. This effect has a number of testable implications. For example, high growth industries have relatively lower leverage and turnover rates.     

Optimal investment and production decisions and the value of the firm

We explore the effects of uncertainty on a firm that can respond by modifying its investment or production schedule (or both simultaneously) to variations in output price. Investment may increase capacity and/or reduce costs. We consider a firm with finite resources.Our model uses option theory instead of the more traditional net present value framework. One of the early papers using this approach is Brennan and Schwartz (1985) in which an investment project to extract a finite natural resource is valued. In that paper, the value of the firm is a function of two state variables, the finite resource to be extracted (output to be produced in the future) and the commodity spot price. In order to maximize firm value, the manager can respond by modifying one control variable, the production level. In our model we handle instead three state variables (spot price, resources, accumulated investment) and two control variables (production rate and investment rate), and solve numerically.We obtain both the value and the optimal policy of a firm that has investment projects that increase capacity and/or reduce costs and illustrate optimal policies as resources and available investments decrease over the life of the firm. Firms may start by only investing, then invest and produce, to end only producing.We thank Scott Wo, the referee and the editor for their comments and suggestions. Cortázar and Lowener acknowledge the financial support from FONDECYT and FONDER.     

IQ and corporate insiders’ decisions to time insider and outsider trading

We examine how corporate insiders’ cognitive ability (IQ) affects their decisions to time insider and outsider trading before abnormal stock price changes. Our analysis of archival data on male corporate insiders in Sweden shows they are less prone to time their insider selling and to sell in larger amounts, before abnormal stock price declines as IQ increases. We also find that insiders with a higher IQ are better at timing their outsider buying. Taken together, our results show that corporate insiders’ IQ affects their trading decisions differently, depending on whether they are trading in their insider or outsider stocks.     

Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Is There a Connection?

In a capitalist economy, prices serve to equilibrate supply and demand for goods and services, continually changing to reallocate resources to their most efficient uses. However, secondary stock market prices, often viewed as the most “informationally efficient” prices in the economy, have no direct role in the allocation of equity capital since managers have discretion in determining the level of investment. What is the link between stock price informational efficiency and economic efficiency? We present a model of the stock market in which: (i) managers have discretion in making investments and must be given the right incentives; and (ii) stock market traders may have important information that managers do not have about the value of prospective investment opportunities. In equilibrium, information in stock prices will guide investment decisions because managers will be compensated based on informative stock prices in the future. The stock market indirectly guides investment by transferring two kinds of information: information about investment opportunities and information about managers' past decisions. However, because this role is only indirect, the link between price efficiency and economic efficiency is tenuous. We show that stock price efficiency is not sufficient for economic efficiency by showing that the model may have another equilibrium in which prices are strong-form efficient, but investment decisions are suboptimal. We also suggest that stock market efficiency is not necessary for investment efficiency by considering a banking system that can serve as an alternative institution for the efficient allocation of investment resources.     

Is local bias a cross-border phenomenon? Evidence from individual investors’ international asset allocation

Extant literature consistently documents that investors tilt their domestic equity portfolios towards regionally close stocks (local bias). We hypothesize that individual investors’ local bias is not limited to the domestic sphere but instead also determines their international investment decisions. Our results confirm the presence of a cross-border local bias. Specifically, we show (i) that the stockholdings of individual investors living within regional proximity to a foreign country display a significantly lower foreign investment bias towards investment opportunities in that country and (ii) that this drop in foreign investment bias levels is disproportionately driven by investments in regionally close neighbor-country companies. The impact of cross-border local bias on investors’ bilateral foreign equity investments is economically significant and holds even after controlling for previously identified explanations of international asset allocation.     

Securities Transaction Tax and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Japanese Experience

This study examines the effect of transaction costs on the time series behavior of stock returns over a period surrounding the April 1989 changes in tax rates on securities transactions and capital gains in Japan. We find significant decreases in estimates of the first-order autocorrelation in returns for Japanese stocks listed in Japan, but no changes for Japanese stocks dually listed in the United States as American Depository Receipts (ADRs), which were not subject to the tax law change. We also find lower price basis between the ADRs and their underlying Japanese stocks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in transaction costs improves the efficiency of the price discovery process.