A note on the government budget restraint

In a recent article in this Journal, Christ presented a dynamic macroeconomic model which has the striking implication of instability under bond financing of budgetary deficits. In this paper, we show that the stability (and other fundamental) properties of Christ's model are closely related to the specification of the exogenous fiscal variables. This point is demonstrated through an analysis of Christ's model in which several definitions of government spending are taken as exogenous. As an alternative to this approach, we explore the implications of models in which alternative policy goals are specified as exogenous — goals such as a balanced or a zero gap between actual and potential output.     

Exchange rates and ‘news’: Reply

In this reply I arge that the results of my 1982 article in this Journal are not affected, either at a theoretical or empirical level, by Longworth's (1984) comments. However, I also argue that Longworth's proposition of including variables pertaining to other countries in empirical market efficiency studies should be investigated further.     

‘Managerialism’, ‘ownerism’ and risk

This paper proposes that managers, having the value of their human capital dependent on the performance of the firm they manage, and being unable to diversify away this risk, are expected to attempt to reduce their employment risk internally by project selection or by income smoothing, intended to stabilize the firm's income stream. An empirical investigation shows that manager-controlled firms exercise ‘income smoothing’ to a greater extent than owner-controlled firms, have relatively lower unsystematic risk and perhaps lower systematic risk.     

Non-GAAP Earnings Disclosures on the Face of the Income Statement by UK Firms: The Effect on Market Liquidity

This study benefits by a special feature of the UK information environment which allows UK firms to disclose non-GAAP earnings on the face of the income statement to examine two interrelated questions. First, we ask whether the decision to disclose non-GAAP earnings on the face of the income statement is related to the firm's financial performance and corporate governance characteristics, and second, we investigate the effect of this disclosure decision on market liquidity. Using a dataset of 1227 hand-collected firm-year observations during the period 2006–2013, we show that better governed firms and firms with weaker financial performance are more likely to disclose non-GAAP earnings. Our evidence also suggests that this disclosure is associated with increased levels of market liquidity and the results hold after controlling for self-selection bias. We conclude that firms' decision to disclose non-GAAP earnings on the face of the income statement is more consistent with the incentive to provide information than to mislead the market.     

Plato and Delphi

Plato had an unparalleled influence on political and utopian thought through his Republic. Recently, Professor Clarke has emphasised the “Primacy of Plato” for the literature of the ideal state.¹ Some qualifications are offered here to Clarke's appraisal of Plato. These qualifications bear upon his characterisation of Plato's “extraordinary social insights and his exceptional power of thought”. They should be of particular interest to the futures researcher, as they are related to Delphi.     

Commentary: A proposal for theoretical models of stakeholder perceptions of a new financial reporting system

This commentary explores the article by Fontes et al. published in this issue of Accounting Forum. They argue that the scope of IFRS continues to widen across the world, using a number of social science disciplines to discuss stakeholder perceptions of change. The commentary uses Hegel's Science of Logic to situate their arguments through four key theoretical approaches that are prominent in the accounting literature. Ultimately, this has the potential to position IASB frameworks in such a way as to challenge the economic and neoliberal logic on which modern accounting is based.     

A fuzzy-based approach to residual income equity valuation

The decision of whether to buy, hold or sell equities depends on whether the current price reflects the stock’s intrinsic or fundamental value. The residual income valuation model expresses this fundamental value as a function of current book value of equity plus the sum of discounted expected residual income. Although past and present income and book value information is readily available to investors, values taken by essential parameters in this model are unknown ex ante, particularly the cost of equity or discount rate and future residual income. Any point estimate of equities’ fundamental value according to the model may therefore conceal considerable variation around the estimate, even in the presence of minor perturbations in the model’s inputs. In this paper, we introduce a fuzzy-based approach which reflects the imprecision inherent in certain parameters in equity valuation. We extend the limited prior fuzzy-based literature on investment analysis by introducing the concept of fuzzy fundamental equity value, initially on an illustrative example. To further demonstrate this fuzzy representation, illustrative financial statement data for individual UK companies are considered, with fuzzy fundamental equity values evaluated over progressive forecast horizons. Our series of illustrative applications (which encompasses the standard crisp approach) make the inherent uncertainty involved in estimating equity value immediately apparent.     

Ambiguity intolerance and financial reporting alternatives

Authoritative accounting pronouncements almost always require more, rather than less, financial reporting disclosures and accountants rarely, if ever, act to overturn the required disclosures. Since the personality literature suggests that desire for more information is linked to an individual's intolerance for ambiguity, this study tested selected hypotheses about the relationship between accountants' intolerance for ambiguity and their desire for financial reporting alternatives. The findings of the study did not disclose a significant relationship between accountants' intolerance for ambiguity and their desire for financial reporting alternatives. However, the results did disclose a relationship between education level and two dependent variables: desire for disclosure and consistency of desired disclosures with generally accepted accounting principles. Therefore, additional research should pay more attention to the effects of demographic information, which may in fact be more informative than many previously tested variables such as personality characteristics.     

Ultimate confusion: The economics of Julian Simon

This article argues that there are profound mistakes and exaggerations in Simon's influential and popular ideas. It discusses Simon's denial of resource finitude and his views that neither ecology nor entropy exists. Finally it looks at Simon's The Resourceful Earth as an attack on Global 2000.     

Prediction of return with the minimum variance zero-beta portfolio

This paper tests prediction of returns on stocks using a direct estimate of the minimum variance zero beta portfolio z. The composition of this portfolio is implicit in Black's paper on capital market equilibrium in the absence of riskless borrowing or lending. Portfolios of stocks drawn from the same industries are used to estimate z. The predictions of Black's equilibrium return equation are compared with those of cross-sectional regressions of return on risk.     

The individual's transactions demand for money: A utility maximization approach

This model of the transactions demand shows how an individual may simultaneously choose patterns of consumption, money holdings, and bond holdings over time that maximize utility when faced with a wide variety of possible cyclical patterns in his flow of income. Interesting conclusions about the transactions demand and the real balance effect are derived. For example, there is no theoretical reason to believe that a single individual's demand for money is proportional to his income, and a small excess stock of money is likely to cause a large increase in his level of consumption.     

Contraste de la ley de Gibrat en la banca comercial brasileña

In recent years Brazil has been one of the countries with major changes in the banking sector. The deregulation process that has taken place since 2002 has brought an increased presence of foreign banks and higher competition, among other aspects. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze Gibrat's law on Brazilian commercial banks over the period 2002-2013 with the aim of providing evidence for the construction of a banking growth model which guide the country's financial policy. To that end, we employ a methodology based on quartile regressions as a contribution to previous literature. Our overall results reveal the existence of a non-lineal relationship between growth and banks size with an inverted U-shape. These findings allow us to affirm that the relative dispersion of banks size, as well as the sector's concentration, will be reduce in the future years.     

An income strategy approach to the positive theory of accounting standard setting/choice

This paper is designed to provide additional evidence on the positive theory of accounting policy choice by combining individual accounting principles into firm income strategies. These strategies were the dependent variable in a probit analysis where the independent variables were size, management compensation, industry concentration ratio, systematic risk, capital intensity and the total debt to total asset ratio. The results indicate that four of these factors (size, management compensation, concentration ratio, and the total debt to total asset ratio) have a significant association with the choice of a firm's income strategy. This test provides strong evidence consistent with the positive theory of accounting standard setting/choice. We also present evidence that smaller firms and/or firms in less concentrated industries do not appear to make accounting policy choice decisions that are consistent with this theory.     

Optimal capital structure: A multi-period programming model for use in financial planning

This paper describes a multi-period, chance constrained mathematical programming model to compute for each period, the firm's optimal debt to equity ratio and the optimal maturity distribution of its debt. The model assumes that the firm's objective is to maximize total value of the firm, and that the firm operates in a world of uncertainty, with corporate income taxes and bankruptcy costs. Finally, the actual coupon rate paid by the firm which is commensurate to the risk of default is endogenously determined by the model.     

Does International Accounting Network Membership Affect Audit Fees and Audit Quality? Evidence From China

Regulators suggest that small audit firms join international accounting networks to reduce their resource constraints in serving large clients and providing high-quality service. Bills, Cunningham, and Myers (2016) investigate the issue in the United States and find that both audit fees and quality are higher for members of international accounting networks (i.e., member audit firms). We investigate the effects of network membership on audit fees and quality in China, a relatively weaker institutional environment than the United States. Using data of Chinese listed companies audited by non-Big N audit firms from 2001 to 2010, we find that member audit firms charge 3.9% higher fees than nonmember audit firms, much lower than the 30% fee premiums charged by U.S. member audit firms. We do not find consistent evidence that audit quality is higher for member audit firms. Overall, our results demonstrate that China's weak institutional environment may overwhelm the quality control brought by international accounting networks and that it may weaken or even offset the benefits of audit firms' participation in these networks, resulting in smaller or even no effects of membership on audit fees and quality.     

Systematic risk and the theory of the firm: A reexamination

A recent microeconomic model of the determinants of equity betas (Subrahmanyam and Thomadakis 1980) is generalized by including risky human capital in the market portfolio and allowing a general covariance structure between the model's sources of uncertainty. This provides an explanation of the ambiguous effect of operating leverage on beta by viewing human capital and equity contributors as risk sharers in the firm's output risk. This explanation may help to clarify the apparent conflict with the previous literature. The relationship between systematic risk and monopoly power is rederived and shown to depend upon a plausible condition on the correlation between wage rate and price uncertainty. Finally, the public policy implications of this analysis are presented.     

Deficits,money and inflation: Comment

This paper re-examines the fiscal policy-money growth linkage analysed by Hamburger-Zwick (1981) in this Journal. Newly revised national income accounts data are employed. Unlike Hamburger-Zwick we do not find any strong evidence of a positive Federal budget deficit-money growth relationship over the period 1961–1974. When the estimation period is extended to 1976 and then to 1978, the results suggest no relationship between deficits and money growth.     

Semi-rational expectations and exchange-rate dynamics

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) asserts that, on average, the economic agents are accurate in predicting future economic developments. The paper demonstrates, however, that in a world of costly information, individual rationality may result in consistent and persistent forecasting biases. A distinction is drawn between perfect foresight or efficient forecasting—which is consistent with the REH—and myopic perfect foresight—which is the profit maximizing, and thus the rational one from an individualistic point of view, even though the latter may result in persistently biased forecasting. These concepts are illustrated in a model of exchange rate dynamics which introduces myopic or ‘semi’ rationality into Dornbusch's familiar model.     

The demand for and supply of deposits by credit unions: The Caisses Populaires' case reply and comments

Smith points out rightly that the symbol R refers to two different, though each time well defined, concepts in Chateau's (1980) article in this Journal. His claim, however, that this leads to a misspecification of the theoretical model is erroneous, and is refuted. Further it is shown explicitly under which conditions the maximization of expected utility of reserves is consistent with balance-sheet growth. For the Caisses' system acting within the Quebec institutional and regulatory environment, the growth-cum-managerial-discretion model is theoretically appealing, as well as supported by the available empirical evidence.     

The CBO's policy analysis: An unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory

The analyses of fiscal and monetary policies that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides Congress tend to be biased, encouraging the use of activist stabilization policies. The CBO's virtual neglect of economic uncertainties and its emphasis on very short time horizons make active policies appear much more attractive than its own model implies. Moreover, the CBO 's adoption of the macroeconometric approach fundamentally biases its analyses. Macroeconometric models do not remain invariant to changes in policy rules and are mute on the implications of alternative policies for efficiency and income distribution. The rational expectations equilibrium approach overcomes these difficulties and implies that less activist and less inflationary policies are desirable.