Discount window borrowing,monetary policy,and the post-October 6, 1979 federal reserve operating procedure

A demand schedule for discount window borrowing based on profit-maximizing bank behavior is derived. A feature of non-price rationing at the discount window making longer duration borrowing more costly is shown to make lagged borrowing and expected future spreads between the Federal funds rate and the discount rate relevant to the current borrowing decision. Consequently, both the size of the coefficients in the borrowing functions as well as the form of the function itself depend on expected Fed policy toward the spread. The demand function for discount window borrowing provides the critical link by which non-borrowed reserve control affects short-term interest rates and ultimately the money supply under post-October 6, 1979 reserve targeting. The analysis suggests some reasons why the Fed has experienced difficulty in specifying, estimating, and utilizing a discount window borrowing function in the non-borrowed reserve operating procedure.     

A note on reserve requirements and monetary control with a flexible deposit rate

This paper examines the relationship between reserve ratios and monetary control when deposit rates are flexible in the short run. For a total reserves operating target, it is shown that an increase in the deposit reserve ration may raise the variance of a monetary aggregate. Under an interest rate operating target, it is also shown that the deposit reserve ratio affects both the expected value and the variance of a monetary aggregate. These findings for the two alternative operating targets differ sharply from previous results which were based on the assumption of fixed deposit rates.     

Short-run deviations and time-varying hedge ratios: Evidence from agricultural futures markets

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of time-varying hedge ratios in the agricultural commodities futures markets using four different versions of the GARCH models. The GARCH models applied are the standard bivariate GARCH, the bivariate BEKK GARCH, the bivariate GARCH-X and the bivariate BEKK GARCH-X. Futures data for corn, coffee, wheat, sugar, soybeans, live cattle and hogs are applied. Comparison of the hedging effectiveness is done for the within sample period (1980–2004), and two out-of-sample periods (2002–2004 and 2003–2004). Results indicate superior performance of the portfolios based on the GARCH-X model estimated hedge ratio during all periods.     

Financial intermediaries and monetary control: An example

Gurley, Shaw, Tobin, and Brainard argued that uncontrolled financial intermediaries impede monetary control as measured by the short-term effects of open-market operations on interest rates. But their models neglected the fundamental role of intermediaries — that of connecting financial markets by reducing information and transactions costs. It is possible to understand the impact of intermediaries only by first considering as imperfect system containing forces that induce their development. This paper presents conditions in which the introduction of intermediaries — and the accompanying increased access of traders to a diversity of investments — results in potentially more effective official control of interest rates.     

Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts

We find evidence of heterogeneity and irrationality among professional forecasts for three-month inter-bank rates and ten-year gilt yields at both short and long forecast horizons over the period 1989-2006. The majority of biased forecasts overestimate the future spot rate, consistent with slow adjustment to the declining trend in inflation and interest rates. Furthermore, we produce evidence indicating that both monetary policy actions and elements of communication policy have information content regarding the rationality of forecasts. Changes in official bank rates and disagreement among the Monetary Policy Committee influence the rationality of forecasts. The publication of inflation reports has no effect.     

Unemployment and monetary policy under rational expectations: Some Canadian evidence

The policy implications of combining rational expectations with the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis are reviewed. A monetary policy feedback rule is estimated on Canadian data for the period 1927–1972. The residuals from the regression serve as the unanticipated components of monetary policy while predicted values serve as expected monetary growth. An unemployment equation is then developed in which the unemployment rate is allowed to be influenced by expected and unexpected monetary policy and fiscal and foreign spending. The evidence confirms the hypothesis that it is unanticipated monetary policy that affects unemployment and that anticipated monetary growth plays no significant role.     

International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore

This paper investigates the responses of market interest rates to US monetary policy announcements for the US and two emerging economies, Hong Kong and Singapore which are similar on many respects but have experienced opposite exchange rate regimes in the last twenty years. Our results, based on market expectations extracted from federal fund futures rates, document that FOMC announcements significantly affect the term structure of interest rate in the US and both Asian countries. Further, international interest rate differentials around FOMC meeting dates tend to be negative for short maturities with the impact gradually dissipating as bond maturity increases. Finally, for the case of Singapore, we find that domestic interest rates react to both external and domestic monetary policy announcements with a magnitude that is larger over the full bond maturity spectrum for domestic announcements. These results are robust to time-varying futures risk premia and alternative measures of interest rates expectations.     

A study of a monetary system with a pegged discount rate under different market structures

This paper analyzes a monetary system typical of many European countries, in which the Central Bank carries out monetary policy by pegging the discount rate and then allowing unlimited advances at that rate. The differential effects of monopoly and competition in the banking system are explored, and the responsiveness of the system to policy tools and exogenous shocks is analyzed. The standard ‘money multiplier’ approach is shown to be inappropriate for this kind of system.     

First Financial Restructuring and operating efficiency: Evidence from Taiwanese commercial banks

This paper investigates the effect of the “First Financial Restructuring” (FFR) on the operating efficiency of commercial banks in Taiwan. Applying data envelopment analysis (DEA) to operations data for 40 commercial banks over the 6-year period 2000–2005, we find that while the banks have lower operating efficiency on average during the reform period (2002–2003) compared to the pre-reform period (2000–2001), improved operating efficiency is reflected in the post-reform period (2004–2005). Our results remain unchanged even after controlling for the non-performing loan ratio, capital adequacy ratio, bank ownership, size, and GDP growth rate. These results suggest that the improved efficiency in the post-reform period is possibly due to enhanced banking and risk management practices and benefits obtained from compliance with the FFR.     

Oman's monetary policy transmission process under the fixed peg: some empirical puzzles

This paper highlights that an open economy, like Oman, could often enjoy partial monetary policy independence despite operating with a fixed peg, which may appear as a clear violation of the ‘macroeconomic trilemma'. While explaining the country-specific factors that create the scope for partial monetary policy independence, the paper underscores that for meaningful use of this partial monetary policy independence to attain domestic goals of inflation and output, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy must work effectively. Empirical analyses presented in this paper for Oman, however, suggest the presence of not only the ‘interest rate puzzle’ but also the ‘IS puzzle’ and the ‘Phillips curve puzzle’, which together signal the presence of significant transmission weaknesses. The paper, thus, concludes that costs stemming from loss of any monetary policy independence because of the fixed peg may not be very significant for Oman, and hence, any alternative exchange rate regime cannot be viewed as appropriate just on the grounds that an alternative regime could deliver greater monetary policy independence.     

Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India

Using bank-level data from India, we examine the impact of ownership on the reaction of banks to monetary policy, and also test whether the reaction of different types of banks to monetary policy changes is different in easy and tight policy regimes. Our results suggest that there are considerable differences in the reactions of different types of banks to monetary policy initiatives of the central bank, and that the bank lending channel of monetary policy is likely to be much more effective in a tight money period than in an easy money period. We also find differences in impact of monetary policy changes on less risky short-term and more risky medium-term lending. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

Health care regulation and the operating efficiency of hospitals: Evidence from Taiwan

Using data from the Annual Survey of Hospitals compiled by the Department of Health in Taiwan for years 1994 through 1997, we employed Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate the impact of a National Health Insurance (NHI) Program on the operating efficiency of district hospitals in Taiwan. We find that, on average, efficiency of district hospitals in Taiwan decreased following the implementation of the NHI Program. Our results are robust to the inclusion of control variables that have been shown to affect hospital operating performance in prior research, and alternative efficiency measurements.     

One monetary policy and 18 central bankers: The European monetary policy as a game of strategic delegation

This paper employs a multi-country delegation monetary policy model and argues that a decision-making mechanism based on the median voter theorem where intensity of preferences cannot play a role does not capture important aspects of policy setting in the European Monetary Union. Replacing the median voter mechanism with a less restrictive “weighted mean mechanism”, it is shown that strategic delegation can lead to a surprising degree of central bank inflation aversion. This finding supports the “The Twin Sister Hypothesis” and the perception of the European Central Bank implementing the policy of the Bundesbank rather than a more inflationary monetary policy.     

Consolidation in banking and the lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from Asia and Latin America

This paper examines the relationship between increased consolidation in banking and monetary policy transmission in eighteen Asian and Latin American economies, using bank-level data from 1996 to 2006. Our results provide consistent evidence that as concentration in banking increases, the bank lending channel is weakened, leading the monetary policy transmission mechanism to be less effective. We also investigate how this relationship between concentration and the strength of the lending channel depends on bank-specific characteristics. Using bank-level balance sheet and income statement data allows us, first, to better identify the effects of banking consolidation on the supply-side bank lending channel from those of the demand-side interest rate channel, and second, to test for any systematic differences in the impact of consolidation on monetary policy transmission across banks of different size and financial strength. We also discuss potential explanations for and policy implications of the main findings of this paper.     

Exchange-rate indexation in a monetary model: Theory and evidence

Using a familiar monetary model with nontraded goods, we derive the stability properties of the price level and reserve stock when the exchange rate is partially or completely indexed to the home price level divided by foreign prices. In the stable case, it is shown that indexing results in a system with properties of both fixed and flexible regimes. Our method is to impose conditions of short-run (but not long-run) equilibrium in a discrete period model. The model is tested with monthly data from Brazil.     

The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States

Using structural VAR models with short-run restrictions appropriate for Canada and the United States, we empirically examine whether trade and financial market openness matter for the impact on and transmission to stock prices of monetary policy shocks. We find that, in Canada, the immediate response of stock prices to a domestic contractionary monetary policy shock is small and the dynamic response is brief, whereas in the United States, the immediate response of stock prices to a similar shock is relatively large and the dynamic response is relatively prolonged. We find that these differences are largely driven by differences in financial market openness and hence different dynamic responses of monetary policy shocks between the two countries that we model in this paper.     

Information in balance sheets for future stock returns: Evidence from net operating assets

In this paper, we show that the negative relation of net operating assets (NOA) with future stock returns first documented by Hirshleifer et al. (2004) applies to both net working and investing pieces of NOA, while it is mostly driven by asset NOA components. Predictability of returns is significant only for their unexpected parts (unrelated to past sales growth) and not uniform across different industries. We also find that only high (low) NOA firms with asset expansion (contraction) and weak (strong) background of profitable investments exhibit negative (positive) abnormal returns. Our evidence suggests that the NOA anomaly may be present due to a combination of opportunistic earnings management and agency related overinvestment.