Growth in horticultural trade: Japan's market for developing countries

This paper explores possibilities and opportunities of expansion of horticultural exports from developing countries through an investigation on a rapidly growing market, Japan, as an example among major promising markets. In this paper six horticultural commodities are selected to analyze, emphasizing on exports from developing countries. Observations on Japan's horticultural imports make us presume that consumers differentiate products by place of production. Therefore, import behavior is considered in a two-stage budgeting procedure. The second-stage demands for imports from different sources are specified in an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and estimated statistically as well as the first-stage import demand equations. The estimated second-stage AIDS equations show that the magnitude of own-price coefficients varies with the source of imports and so does that of expenditure coefficients. Therefore, the characteristics of import demand on a commodity basis, which are captured by the estimates of the first-stage import demand equations, are not equally transmitted to the demand for imports by source in each commodity. The estimated coefficients of the first-stage import demand and the second-stage AIDS equations were combined to obtain the total effects of price and income changes on imports by source. The calculated own-price elasticities are greater than one in absolute value in ten of the 15 cases and so are the calculated income elasticities in twelve cases. The large elasticities promise suppliers that they benefit from Japan's income growth and that they increase their earnings if they can reduce the price by lowering their costs. However, factors in non-price competition also play import roles in the import growth. In this paper, the importance of sales promotions by exporters and preshipment inspections was indicated in the cases of mangoes and cut flowers. Other factors such as market structure and public infrastructure for post-harvest activities were also discussed.     

Time-varying Armington elasticity and country-of-origin bias: from the dynamic perspective of the Japanese demand for beef imports

Elasticities of substitution, often called Armington elasticities, reflect incomplete substitutability because of perceived product characteristics. This study divides the determinants of the Japanese demand for beef imports into two factors: (i) substitution elasticity and (ii) country-of-origin bias, and demonstrate how these measurements are associated with trade policy and food scare events. The Japanese beef industry serves as a case study to evaluate the multifold impact of import liberalisation and a series of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks. A time-varying parameter model is used to shed light on the dynamic effects of the import liberalisation and BSE outbreaks on the measurements. The estimation results reveal that the estimated substitutability and country-of-origin bias are very sensitive to the BSE cases, but not to the process of trade liberalisation. The results also confirm that as a result of the BSE outbreaks, the major factor of the Japanese demand for beef imports has changed from relative prices to the country-of-origin effect, thereby emphasising the importance of a traceability system and promotional activities, which would help in the formation of the country-of-origin effect.     

中国原木进口与国际原木非法贸易问题的若干思考

在分析认识中国木材供需矛盾问题的基础上,对中国的原木进口和国际非法采伐加剧原木非法贸易之间的关系进行了探讨。中国原木进口依存度高,非法原木进口防范程度低,缺乏应有的进口门槛,行业自律机制不健全,给非法原木贸易提供了机会。为进一步探讨国际反原木非法贸易对中国原木进口需求的影响,文章采用差异化进口需求模型方法,分析了国际打击原木非法贸易背景下中国原木进口需求的相关数量变化关系。研究结果表明,中国的原木进口正在朝着理性的方向进展,来自美国、新西兰的原木进口比重日益增加而来自非法原木高危国的原木进口日益减少。基于研究提出中国应提高自身的生产能力以及完善合法认证体系,降低原木的进口依赖,同时发挥大国作用,一起推动非法原木高危国的木材合法认证体系的发展。     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Japan's peanut import demand: implications for United States exports

Japan's import demand for both raw peanuts and processed peanut products was estimated using the Rotterdam model in order to determine the impact of an increase in the Japanese raw peanut quota on peanut imports from the USA and its competitors. The results indicate that if a larger import budget were allocated to raw peanut imports by Japan, most of the increase would be allocated to imports of Chinese raw peanuts. Furthermore, U.S. exports of peanut products could be affected if Japanese expenditures on peanut product imports change as a result of an increase in the quota for raw peanut imports. Thus, this study concludes that an increase in the Japanese import quota for raw peanuts provides only limited market opportunity for U.S. peanut exports, and China appears to benefit more than the USA from an increase in the Japanese raw peanut import quota. In contrast, the value added trade of peanut products could provide a better market opportunity for the U.S. peanut industry.     

中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动原因分析

基于联合国贸易数据库林产品数据,应用恒定市场份额模型,探究1998—2018年造成中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动现象的影响因素。结果表明:1998—2018年,中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易集中于资源密集型和需求增长较快的产品,且贸易波动呈现出明显的阶段性;中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品总额波动现象受产品结构、市场规模、竞争力等多种因素影响,其中中国进口结构和国内市场需求是贸易波动的主要因素;此外,中俄林产品贸易还受到世界经济环境的影响。因此,中国应寻找其他进口渠道,减少对俄罗斯供给的依赖,保障中国木质林产品产业安全,密切关注两国经济政策变化,及时调整进口贸易策略,促进中俄木质林产品贸易的健康稳定发展。     

中国食物供求分析及预测：基于贸易历史、国际比较和模型模拟分析的视角

研究分别从贸易历史、国际比较和模型模拟的视角对中国未来食物供求平衡状况进行了展望和模拟分析。(1)贸易历史的角度的经验结果显示,中国食物贸易净进口呈扩大态势;(2)中国大陆与日本、韩国及中国台湾地区的国际比较结果表明,中国未来粮食净进口可能会进一步扩大,尤其是对蛋白质来源食物需求可能会快速扩张;(3)基于中国食物供求局部均衡模型的模拟分析结果显示,中国谷物和油料作物供求平衡的缺口将不断扩大,主要谷物和油料作物的自给率将不断下降,同时,中国采取的玉米产业需求抑制政策对中国粮食供求平衡具有深远影响。综合以上不同视角的结果可以看出,要根本解决中国食物供求平衡问题,有必要建立食物安全与其他安全的综合安全观,实现4个方面的战略转变。即:第一,从重视确保数量向重视确保国内外资源战略转变,如签订粮食供给的政府间协议。第二,从重视总体粮食安全向重视主食安全、区域安全、运输安全(或航道安全)、流通和分配渠道安全、不同收入群体家庭食物安全转变。第三,从重视单一的食物安全向产业安全和质量安全转变。第四,从重视本国食物安全向全球视角转变。     

Asia–Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy–wide perspective

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will be able to pay for its food imports. The paper first reviews existing food sector projections and then takes an economy–wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores several alternative scenarios. A slowdown in farm productivity growth is shown to be costly to the world economy, as is slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries would reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China's (and hence Taiwan's) membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) adds 30 per cent to estimated global gains from the Uruguay Round. Their WTO accession is projected to boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand by not only China but also its densely populated neighbours with whom it trades intensively.     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.     

An econometric analysis of U.S. vital wheat gluten imports

In light of the wheat wet milling industry's development in the E.C. and of the prominent role U.S imports play in the international market for wheat gluten, this paper discusses the international market for wheat gluten, an important component of processed grain products. An econometric analysis of the U.S. import demand for wheat gluten is undertaken. The price of flour, income, and the U.S. value of wheat protein are found to be important determinants of wheat gluten imports.     

Forecasting Japan's Frozen Potato Imports

THe U.S. potato industry is the main supplier of frozen potatoes to a rapidly growing Japanese food service market. A two-stage budgeting procedure was employed to estimate total Japanese imports of frozen potatoes and imports by country of origin. Japanese demand for frozen potatoes was found to be own-price inelastic and income elastic. The complementary relationship between hamburger and frozen potatoes suggests that replacement of tariffs for beef import quotas will impact the Japanese potato market. Imports from the United States are expected to increase substantially and remain in constant proportion to total imports.     

Welfare impacts of import controls on Botswana's horticulture

Botswana has, for the past two decades, used import controls (permits) to regulate horticultural imports, and thereby promote economic diversification through import substitution. This article estimates import demand equations to capture the impact of import controls on horticultural imports (oranges, potatoes, and onions) into Botswana, using data for 1974 to 2001. Parameter estimates are used to compute nominal protection rates (NPRs) and welfare effects. Model‐generated NPRs are estimated at 191%, 75%, and 109% for oranges, potatoes, and onions, respectively. Imports of oranges, potatoes, and onions declined by 32%, 29%, and 35%, respectively, due to the implementation of import controls. Over time consumer losses and quota rents rose while producer gains declined. Net social losses also increased, implying that import controls became increasingly burdensome. It is argued that import controls have not been very effective in promoting import substitution. The study is important for the trade liberalization debate in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), where import permits and other nontariff barriers are pervasive, have proliferated, and are a major hindrance to intraregional trade.     

Scale Effects and Mark-ups in the US Food and Fibre Industries: Capital Investment and Import Penetration Impacts

Capital investment patterns and import penetration are often alleged to influence firms' costs and prices, and thus economic performance. We examine the impacts of these factors on measures of scale economies, input demand/composition, and market power in the US food and fibre industries. Flexible variable cost functions incorporating quasi-fixity of three categories of private (internal) capital and two external technological and trade (import) factors represent the cost structures of the two industries. Pricing equations, based on inverse demand functions including import prices, represent output decisions. Cost and demand elasticities constructed from this model indicate reduced manufacturing costs from technical and trade, scale and capital effects. This increased cost efficiency arises largely from materials savings in the textiles industry and reduced labour use in the food industry. Mark-up behaviour is exhibited for most of the sample period in the textiles industry, and neither industry appears heavily affected by import prices.     

Noneconomic Distortions in International Agricultural Trade:

A U.S. import demand model for palm oil empirically addresses the objectives of ascertaining whether significant shifts in U.S. import patterns for palm oil followed an American Soybean Association negative informational campaign against "fatty" tropical oils and whether factors such as exchange rates significantly affected the decline of U.S. palm oil imports after the campaign. Evidence suggests that structural change in U.S. import demand for palm oil followed commencement of the campaign, including significant changes in the own- and cross-price responsiveness of palm oil. Results also indicate that exchange rates did not contribute to declining U.S. palm oil imports.     

基于Rotterdam模型的中国热带农产品进口市场格局研究

[目的]为把握热带农产品进口市场格局和供给效率,对中国热带农产品进口的市场竞争关系进行研究。[方法]文章基于1992—2020年中国热带农产品进口贸易数据,以木薯、天然橡胶、咖啡和胡椒为研究对象,运用Rotterdam模型估计测算这4种热带农产品进口市场各来源国的进口需求弹性,实证分析中国热带农产品进口市场格局。[结果]（1）中国热带农产品的进口来源较为集中,对泰国、越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚等东盟国家的进口依赖程度相对较高;（2）木薯主要来源国之间的竞争性不强,中国对木薯有稳定的进口需求和进口来源地;（3）天然橡胶、咖啡和胡椒的进口来源国之间呈现出不同程度的市场竞争关系;（4）未来中国热带农产品进口需求对东盟国家依赖将进一步加深。[结论]中国应充分把握双边贸易关系,重新审视并完善与东盟国家及地区农业国际合作战略,不断促进热带农产品进口来源地和贸易渠道的多元化,以保障热带农产品贸易安全。     

Food Import Demand in the Czech Republic

This paper provides an overview of Czech food import demand in the transition period of the 1990s. It provides econometric estimates of own‐ and cross‐price elasticities as well as group expenditure elasticities of Czech import demand for sixteen lower level and four upper level food groups. Based on the Hausman test for endogeneity, which supported the hypothesis that Czech import prices were exogenously determined outside of the Czech economy, we estimated five demand models as direct‐demand systems of the AIDS type. The econometric estimation of elasticities used bimonthly data from March 1993 to August 1997.     

中国原木进口的需求弹性及预测——基于月度时间序列的Johansen协整估计

鉴于中国原木进口需求弹性的参数值信息有限,利用月度时间序列数据构建中国原木进口需求函数,在Johansen协整框架下展开计量分析。向量误差修正模型的估计结果显示:中国原木的进口需求对所有变量都是缺乏弹性的,且在1%的统计水平上显著;中国国内经济产出和实际进口价格的弹性分别为0.86(±0.05)和-0.68(±0.15),短期对长期均衡的偏离的调整系数为0.61。基于估计参数的预测结果显示,受经济新常态的影响,2020年中国原木进口量约为5067万m3~6464万m3,并呈现平稳增长的态势。     

Demand for dairy products in Mexico

Mexico is the world's largest importer of non-fat dry milk (NFDM) and imports of cheese, fluid milk, and whey have increased rapidly in the past four years. In the wake of GATT and the NAFTA, as well as recent economic developments in Mexico, world dairy markets will be affected as a result of changes in the Mexican dairy sector. The study analyzes both domestic and import demand for dairy products in Mexico to determine price and income elasticities as well as import elasticities. The results indicate that the demand for fluid milk is the most responsive to price changes and NFDM demand is inelastic with respect to its own price. There is little subtitution between fluid milk and non-fat dry milk, although fluid milk is relatively elastic, which suggests the existence of other substitutes for fluid milk. Estimation of import demand equations reveal similar trends in response to price changes, but income elasticity of imports was highest for fluid milk which suggests that Mexico will import possibly more fluid than dry milk as incomes rise. The exchange rate was the most significant variable influencing all dairy product imports.     

Would African Countries Benefit from the Termination of Kenya’s Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU? An Analysis of EU Demand for Imported Roses

This paper assesses the impact of Kenya’s preferential status on EU demand for imported roses by country. Import demand equations were estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model in an Armington framework. With the expiration of the Lomé Convention, tariffs (up to 24%) on Kenyan roses were likely if an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) was not signed by January 2008. Roses from African countries not subject to tariffs were expected to displace Kenya’s exports in the future. However, results of this study showed that roses from African countries were complements in the EU market and those exports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would have been negatively impacted if a Kenya–EU EPA was unsuccessful. Given the maximum import duty on Kenyan roses, EU imports from Kenya would decrease by 9.1% and imports from Zimbabwe and Other African countries would decrease by 6% and 4%, respectively.     

Food aid,food policy and the Uruguay round: implications for Bangladesh

The relationship between the effects of food aid and those of the completion of the Uruguay Round of the GATT are studied in this paper, focusing upon the food aid recipient countries, and taking Bangladesh as an illustrative example. It is argued that, among other factors, the magnitudes of these effects depend crucially on the policy environment within the food aid recipient country itself, particularly the government's policy with respect to commercial food imports. It is shown that when the quantity of Bangladesh's commercial food imports is controlled by the government, the benefits derived from food aid are smaller than when these imports are liberalised. Likewise, the negative effects that the Uruguay Round may be expected to have on Bangladesh will also he larger if commercial food imports are subject to quantitative controls than if they are liberalised. The effects the Uruguay Round will have on Bangladesh will also depend on the way food aid donors respond to the Round. If donors reduce the volumes of food aid, either because of reduced food surpluses resulting from lower agricultural subsidies, or in response to increased international food prices resulting from the Round, the losses incurred by Bangladesh will be magnified. But these effects will also depend heavily on whether Bangladesh itself participates in the liberalisations that are central to the Round itself. If it were to participate fully, the negative effects that the Uruguay Round would otherwise have on Bangladesh may be entirely offset by the gains Bangladesh would derive from its own liberalisation.