Patterns and determinants of international fragmentation of production: Evidence from outward processing trade between the EU and Central Eastern European countries

Patterns and Determinants of International Fragmentation of Production: Evidence from Outward Processing Trade between the EU and Central Eastern European Countries. — In this paper we investigate a specific form of international fragmentation of production, that is, the form giving rise to international trade for reasons of processing. Data on textile and apparel trade between EU countries and Central European countries show that the magnitude of trade for reasons of processing greatly overshadows that of final trade. The industry appears to be affected by a process of international fragmentation whose understanding requires a new definition of the concept of comparative advantage. Our analysis suggests that this fragmentation is activated by labor cost differentials as well as by reasons of geographic and cultural proximity.     

Technological adaptation, trade, and growth

Technological Adaptation, Trade, and Growth. — Based on Grossman and Helpman’s 1991 seminal work, the authors provide a simple model extension where innovations created in the high-tech sector may be assimilated or adapted by the lowtech sector, thus generating nondecreasing returns in the production function of the latter. When applying a Heckscher-Ohlin framework the authors find that the effects of technological diffusion allow a country relatively scarce in human capital to benefit from nondecreasing rates of growth through its low-tech sector. They test this idea by using a dynamic panel data approach in order to deal with simultaneity and country heterogeneity. Their results are consistent with the predictions of the model and robust to a broad range of definitions of technological intensity.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S EXPORT PERFORMANCE: DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT SUPPLY

This paper presents both a comparative analysis of South Africa's export structure and performance and an econometric investigation of the determinants of export volumes. The paper finds that the improved growth and diversification of South African manufactured exports during the 1990s lag those of East Asia and a few other resource‐based economies. This performance in part reflects relatively low world growth in resource‐based products, but factors that affect the profitability of export supply, such as the real effective exchange rate, infrastructure costs, tariff rates and skilled labour, are also shown to be important. Export demand and the ability to compete in the export market on the basis of price are not found to be a major constraint to export growth.     

European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach

European Exports and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. — This paper implements a panel data approach for studying the determinants of and relationships between bilateral economic activities in terms of both trade and foreign direct investment between the EU member states. The familiar equation for testing the determinants of bilateral exports is reformulated to reflect recent theoretical work. It is specified as a dynamic panel data model designed to answer questions about their relationship according to changes in different exogenous determinants. Exports and stocks of outward FDI are found to be substitutes with respect to changes in transport costs and complements with respect to most of the other determinants.     

Horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade between Eastern Europe and the European union

Horizontal and Vertical Intra-Industry Trade Between Eastern Europe and the European Union. — The share of intra-industry trade (IIT) in total trade between central and east European nations and the EU is broken down into various components. Vertical IIT is found to account for 80 to 90 percent of total IIT. Controlling for country-specific effects, it is positively associated with product differentiation, labor intensity of production, economies of scale, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Horizontal IIT is also positively correlated with FDI and product differentiation; however, a significant negative relationship is found for scale and labor intensity.     

The role of comparative advantage in trade within industries: A panel data approach for the European Union

The Role of Comparative Advantage in Trade within Industries: A Panel Data Approach for the European Union. — A large share of EU member states trade is intra-industry trade (IIT) in the period 1985-1996; in particular, IIT is based on products differentiated in quality (vertical IIT). Moreover, exports from southern countries are located mainly at the lower end of the price-quality spectrum, whereas those countries with higher per capita incomes are located at the higher end. According to the vertical IIT models, we hypothesize that commercial specialization of members states over the quality spectrum within industries is explained by differences in technological, physical and human capital. The results show that comparative advantage is an important driver of the pattern of European trade within industries.     

Has the Canada-US trade agreement fostered price integration?

Has the Canada-US Trade Agreement Fostered Price Integration? — This paper assesses the Canada-US Trade Agreement (CUSTA) from the perspective of market integration. Using monthly data on producer price indices and the exchange rate of both countries for the 1974:1–1996:1 period, a Johansen procedure is used to test for a long-run equilibrium or cointegrated price system among the price series. In addition, to determine whether product markets are converging after the implementation of CUSTA, a Kaiman filter or time-varying parameter analysis is used. Empirical evidence supports the conclusion that CUSTA did not cause price integration or convergence, rather for the two markets convergence and integration were well established prior to CUSTA. The success of CUSTA appears to be in maintaining Canadian access to the US market in the face of rising US protectionism.     

The importance of technology-based intersectoral linkages for market share dynamics

The Importance of Technology-Based Intersectoral Linkages for Market Share Dynamics. — The paper introduces technology-based intersectoral linkages (or technological spillovers) in an empirical model of international market share dynamics. The Pavitt taxonomy is applied as a yardstick for interpreting the empirical results. Overall, the results appear to be broadly consistent with the criteria behind the taxonomy, on the relative importance of the different factors of competitiveness in the different sectors. In particular, unit labour costs appear to play the largest role in supplier-dominated industries, ‘own sector’ technological activity plays the largest role in science-based industries, upstream linkages in scale-intensive and downstream linkages in specialized-supplier types of industries.     

Eastern European trade and the Austrian labour market

Eastern European Trade and the Austrian Labour Market. — Recent years have seen a major break in trade relations between Western and Eastern European countries. Austria experienced a large bilateral trade creation with these countries. In this paper, the authors take a closer look at the impact this trade growth had on the Austrian labour market. To differentiate as far as possible between different segments of the labour market, they concentrate on unemployment experience and wage growth for a panel of individual workers in Austrian industry. The results show rather small employment effects, the impact on wage growth is more pronounced with interesting modifications for mobile and immobile workers.     

A kalman filter-gravity equation approach to assess the trade impact of economic integration: The case of Spain, 1986–1992

A Kaiman Filter-Gravity Equation Approach to Assess the Trade Impact of Economic Integration: The Case of Spain, 1986-1992. — The main objective of this paper is to propose an alternative method for evaluating the effects that economic integration between countries has on their trade flows. The trade impact model of reference is the gravity equation and the empirical application of the methodology focuses on Spain’s incorporation into the EEC in 1986. The principal contribution consists in the dynamization of the gravity equation by means of the Kaiman filter. By way of the Kalman algorithm, we use all the preintegration information in order to predict the coefficients of the gravity equation for the subsequent years, thereby defining a more credibleantimonde.     

Credibility of European economic convergence

Credibility of European Economic Convergence. — The authors analyze economic convergence and its relation to European real interest rate differentials using a clustering method on seven macroeconomic key variables for 1979–1995. The results indicate that monetary convergence has progressed considerably but that there is hardly any real convergence in the EU. They also perform pooled nominal and real interest rate regressions with the individual cluster indicators as explanatory variables. The authors find significant positive effects of external (current account) and internal (unemployment ratios, government finance) imbalances on real interest rates. They also group countries according to economic reputation and find that real indicators remain significant for the high-reputation countries.     

The potential trade effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia

The Potential Trade Effects of an FTA between the EU and Russia.- This paper analyzes some of the potential economic effects of free trade agreements between the EU and Russia and the other European CIS countries using standard indicators of trade patterns. It confirms that it would not be feasible for the EU to conclude such an agreement with Russia alone. It is also shown that, if the current high tariff levels are maintained in the CIS countries, they may not benefit from an agreement with the EU. More generally, the authors question the economic motivation for countries such as Russia in seeking free trade agreements with industrial countries which already have low levels of external protection.     

Global outsourcing or foreign direct investment: Why apple chose outsourcing for the iPod

A simple model is presented, where a firm's productivity is endogenized by its R&D investment. It shows that the most productive firms may prefer international outsourcing to foreign direct investment (FDI) in industries with a high innovation share. The high innovation share motivates the firms to economize on organizational cost in order to save resources for R&D investment, making outsourcing preferable to FDI because the former incurs a smaller organizational cost. This model helps explain why Apple Inc., belonging to the electronics industry, which has a particularly high innovation share, launched its innovative iPod through international outsourcing instead of FDI.     

Breaking up a customs union: The case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919

Breaking Up a Customs Union: The Case of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1919. — This study has used new estimates of the gravity model to analyze the effects on European trade patterns in the mid-1920s of the break-up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and its customs union after World War I. The gravity equation has been found to explain 70 percent of the variance of the trade flows of the principal trading nations in 1924–26. Moreover, the ties between the former members of the Austro-Hungarian Empire remained stronger than any other commercial relationship in Europe. They were second only in intensity — given economic and demographic factors — to those of the British Empire.     

Excess returns in the EMS: Do “weak” currencies still exist after the widening of the fluctuation bands?

Excess Returns in the EMS: Do “Weak” Currencies Still Exist after the Widening of the Fluctuation Bands? — The authors analyze the issue of how the different institutional arrangements within the ERM have affected the behaviour of excess returns on DM-denominated assets and contribute to the debate on the future of the EMS. Their approach consists in estimating simple forecasting models for interest differentials, and testing for the presence of significant (negative) mean prediction errors. The comparison between predicted and actual outcome indicates that the new system might be characterized by the virtual disappearance of “weak” currencies, as the widening of the bands has removed the expectations of realignments which resulted in high interest differentials.     

Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?

Is the European Union a Natural Currency Area, or Is It Held Together by Policymakers? — In 1999, EMU started with 11 members, but with considerable uncertainty about the depth of the convergence between them. The optimal currency area literature stresses the need for shocks which are symmetric and of similar size across countries. Our results show that symmetries in the core are only marginally stronger than those in the periphery; and that these symmetries have been increasingly maintained by policy interventions. Consequently, Europe may evolve into an optimal currency area; but the symmetries will be policy-induced rather than a market phenomenon. This suggests a fragility which could be reflected in the value of the new currency.     

Multinational firms, market integration, and trade structure: What remains of the standard-goods hypothesis?

Multinational Firms, Market Integration, and Trade Structure: What Remains of the Standard-Goods Hypothesis? — In extending traditional empirical trade models to multinational firms, this paper shows the effect of the transfer of firm-specific technology and intangible assets by these firms on the structure of host countries. For Belgium, a small open economy with a large presence of foreign multinationals, this effect is of crucial importance and previous studies appeared to have produced biased results by neglecting it. The econometric results show how the large multinational presence induced by the European integration has shifted Belgium’s trade structure towards differentiated products, thereby challenging the standard-goods hypothesis which states that small countries tend to specialize in nondifferentiated products. Spain and Ireland have witnessed an increase in foreign direct investment and a shift in trade structure similar to Belgium after joining the EC.     

The international regulation of intellectual property

The International Regulation of Intellectual Property. — The WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) will usher in a markedly stronger global system of defining and protecting intellectual property rights (IPRs). This paper first discusses the concept of intellectual property and the need for its protection and regulation. It presents evidence on the wide variations in IPRs across countries and discusses how TRIPS will affect these differences. Theoretical predictions about how this stronger system will influence global trade, investment, and technology innovation and diffusion are ambiguous, but limited empirical evidence suggests a modest positive effect overall. However, the distribution of costs and benefits will vary.