China’s exports in a protectionist world

Tariffs, currency wars, and protectionism pose risks for Chinese firms. In theory tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations exert equivalent effects on export volumes. This paper estimates tariff and exchange rate elasticities for China’s exports. The results indicate that, while exchange rates matter, tariffs increases deter exports almost three times as much as equivalent exchange rate appreciations do. The results also indicate that China’s flagship industries such as electronics and machinery are exposed to tariff increases and exchange rate appreciations. The paper then considers how China can promote freer trade to mitigate risks and reduce uncertainty.     

Analysis of the Changes in the Growth of Japan’s Direct Investment in and Trade with China

I. Relative Drop in the Proportion of Japan’s Direct Investment in ChinaCompared with the United States and the EU, Japan’s direct investment in China hasslowed down since 1999, with the relative real size of investment dropping. Table 1 shows that Japan’s direct investment in China was slightly more than that of the USA and much more than that of the EU before 1998. But in the ensuing five years from 1999 onward, the situation was reversed. The US direct investment in China rose …     

China and India in World Trade: Are the Asia Giants a Threat to Malaysia?1

Abstract

With higher shares in world merchandise trade and improvements in product quality, China is better positioned than India in the near term for influencing global trade. From the Malaysian perspective, China represents a non-negligible share in Malaysia's trade. The trends in bilateral trade with both Giants however suggest that competition has intensified. Relative to India, China appears to promulgate a more influential role on Malaysia via higher commodity overlap in external markets, greater matched trade that is of vertical differentiation, distinct quality shifts and negative adjustment pressures. Within this broad rubric of trade-induced changes, there is no evidence of skill upgrading for Malaysia in trade expansion with both Giants. This mirrors the lack of product quality improvements and the low levels of export values of high quality varieties in matched trade. Hence trade induced changes from the Giants that have been cited to be favourable from the Malaysian perspective in previous studies, may have been grossly overstated.     

Foreign Value-added in China＇s Manufactured Exports： Implications for China＇s Trade Imbalance

Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China’s exports.Formally,the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using non-competitive input-output tables.Applying such a method to the Chinese case,however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports,which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates.This paper,by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports.This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China’s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008,compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports.It also finds that the sectors that experiencedfast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents.Since processing exports account for about half of Chinese exports,the prevailing trade statistics,which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports,has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances,especially between China and the USA.     

Development in China＇s Foreign Trade： 2003-2012

China＇s foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years ＇consecutive high growth, China＇s foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China＇s foreign trade over the past l O years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A majorfinding of the presentpaper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next l O-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heaw industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high produc6vity to propel export expansion.     

Trade credit and productivity: evidence from China’s ethnic areas

Using 2004–2009 firm-level microdata for enterprises in China’s ethnic areas, we investigate whether trade credit really works as an alternative external financing source. We find statistical evidence that trade credit is positively correlated with enterprise productivity; the result continues to hold when taking into account the intermediate role of the working capital turnover ratio. Moreover, our results confirm the positive impact of bank financing on enterprise productivity. All these findings are particularly tenable for Han enterprises.     

China＇s Changing Economic Structure and Implications for Regional Patterns of Trade, Production and Integration

I. Introduction There is a strong momentum for regional economic integration within East Asia.1 But few countries in the region harbor any illusion of realizing a region-wide economic union any time soon. A crucial ingredient in any successful East Asia-wide economic integration effort is China. China could be a major catalyst in the integration process if it chooses to.But it would do so only if such a move is in line with the overall objectives of its foreign economic policy. More import…     

Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators

To be continued on the next page.Apr.Mar.Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators2005(by Jun. 2005)16.616.326.424.216.013.372.630.333.215.013.712.812.115.216.225.323.120.315.512.317.132.834.918.912.213.912.3May16.016.225.723.519.515.712.884.031.934.016.213.312.211.59.516.727.620.824.715.411.1-4.235.436.013.310.211.47.712.06.89.516.016.727.620.824.715.411.150.135.535.430.336.014.111.911.47.712.06.89.515.817.029.922.421.514.49.9-48.234.235.330.738.213.48.611.47.017.111.4GDPYear-on-year c…     

Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators

To be continued on the next page.(by Aug. 2006)Jul.16.717.630.529.516.114.6–89.722.624.819.721.113.712.9Jun.Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators17.917.030.329.415.617.616.1–83.925.325.721.622.014.213.1May.10.216.716.729.827.517.218.216.821.126.626.624.824.812.812.212.110.812.511.5200519.517.731.330.316.017.115.6–16.423.325.218.921.313.912.410.216.727.620.824.715.411.1–4.235.436.013.310.211.47.712.06.8GDPYear-on-year changeIndustrial value addedAs compared with the same period …     

China’s Foreign Trade: Achievements,Determinants and Future Policy Challenges

I. IntroductionOver the past twenty-five years, Chinas foreign trade has undergone unprecedenteddevelopment. The total trade value increased from US$36 billion in 1978 to over US$700billion in 2003. The proportion of manufactured goods in total exports rose from less than onehalf in the early period to 90 percent in 2003. Manufactured exports also saw a significantstructural change. Apart from traditional major export items such as textiles and light industrialgoods, machinery and transport…     

Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators

~~Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators~~     

Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators

2005) 2005 Jan. 20.9 20.9 11.9 9.8 -52.6 42.2 42.2 23.9 23.9 Feb. Dec. (by 14.4 16.7 27.6 20.8 24.7 15.4 11.1 40.2 32.7 35.4 24.6 36.0 14.5 13.0 Nov. 14.8 16.8 28.9 22.0 23.0 15.1 10.6 89.4 45.9 35.7 38.5 37.3 13.9 11.8 Q4 9.5 16.0 16.7 27.6 20.8 24.7 15.4 11.1 50.1 35.5 35.4 30.3 36.0 14.1 11.9 11.4 7.7 12.0 6.8 2004 Q3 9.5 15.8 17.0 29.9 22.4 21.5 24.4 9.9 -48.2 34.2 35.3 30.7 38.2 13.4 8.6 11.4 7.0 17.1 11.4 Q2 9.7 17.6 17.7 31.0 22.7 19.9 16.5 12.5 -40.0 37.1 35.7 43.0 42.6 14.9 11.2 11.9…     

Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators

To be continued on the next page.(by Oct. 2006)Jul.16.717.630.529.317.016.114.6–89.722.624.819.721.113.712.9Aug.Changes in China’s Main Economic Indicators16.117.228.226.616.014.50.930.626.522.421.713.912.5Sep.10.216.716.729.827.517.218.216.821.126.626.624.824.812.812.212.110.812.511.5200515.717.329.127.717.316.214.835.632.825.924.621.613.812.810.216.727.620.824.715.411.1–4.235.436.013.310.211.47.712.06.8GDPYear-on-year changeIndustrial value addedAs compared with the same period of pr…     

Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Growth and Discussion of Related Policies

I. Analysis of Factors in the Growth of Import and Export TradeAccording to Customsstatistics,China’s import and export tradereached US$620.8 billionin 2002,growing by 21.8 percent, with imports growing by 21.2 percentand exports by 22.4 percent. Such growth reached as high as 37.1 percent in 2003, with the total volumereachingUS$851.2 billion,withimportsgrowingby39.9percentandexportsby 34.6percent.In the firstthree quartersof 2004, the total value of import and export tradehit US$828.5…     

Past Successes and New Challenges： China＇s Foreign Trade at a Turning Point

Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the unrelenting specialization in downmarket products and the deteriorating terms of trade. These weaknesses have helped its partners to adjust to the rise of this new trade power. In the past decade, China＇s economy has faced the adverse effects o fan export-led growth and the global crisis has revealed its vulnerability. China is now forced to rebalance its economy. This will imply major changes in foreign trade, in favor of ordinary trade and away from processing. In the foreseeable future, China is unlikely to become the driver of international demand but will remain the engine of Asian economic integration.     

Why Does the US Face Greater Disadvantages in the Trade War with China?

The rhetoric used by President Trump regarding the trade war against China is rife with misinterpretation. The actual American trade deficit with China is much lower if evaluated in the correct terms of value‐added. The deficit is mainly a result of insufficient domestic US savings. In addition, as the US dollar is an international currency which is being increasingly held as a result of increases in world population, income, prices and transaction intensity, Americans can benefit from having trade deficits of hundreds of billions of US dollars each year. My analysis, as well as a model of the Bank of England, reveals that the trade war is not only mutually harmful but also actually hurts America more than China. The Thucydides Trap is likely avoidable in the current nuclear era of assured mutual destruction and because China, facing many structural impediments, is still far behind America in technology and military power.