Financial markets with volatility uncertainty

We investigate financial markets under model risk caused by uncertain volatilities. To this end, we consider a financial market that features volatility uncertainty. We use the notion of G-expectation and its corresponding G-Brownian motion recently introduced by Peng (2007) to ensure a mathematically consistent framework. Our financial market consists of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modeled by geometric G-Brownian motion. We adapt the notion of arbitrage to this more complex situation, and consider stock price dynamics which exclude arbitrage opportunities. Volatility uncertainty results in an incomplete market. We establish the interval of no-arbitrage prices for general European contingent claims, and deduce explicit results in the Markovian case.     

Temporary workers: Employee rights and employer responsibilities

As the number of temporary workers in the U.S. has increased dramatically over the past ten years, so, too, has social policy concent over the rights of temporary employees in the workplace and the responsibilities of employing organizations to them. This article first reviews the extent to which temporary workers can be considered “employees” of organizations and thereby be extended the same rights and protections as permanent, full-time employees. Then, the article reviews the current state of case law on the most salient legal issues pertaining to the treatment of temporary workers: discrimination, pay and fringe benefits, worker’s compensation, occupational safety and health, and union activity. The article concludes with the managerial implications of current labor law for compliance with legislative and judicial mandates.     

Game contingent claims in complete and incomplete markets

A game contingent claim is a contract which enables both the buyer and the seller to terminate it before maturity. For complete markets Kifer [Finance and Stochastics 4 (2000) 443–463] shows a connection to a (zero-sum) Dynkin game whose value is the unique no-arbitrage price of the claim. But, for incomplete markets one needs a more general approach. We interpret the contract as a generalized non-zero-sum stopping game. For the complete case this leads to the same results as in Kifer [Finance and Stochastics 4 (2000) 443–463]. For the general case we show the existence of an equilibrium point under the condition that both the seller and the buyer have an exponential utility function. For other utility functions such a point need not exist in the context of incomplete markets.     

石英砂中钛含量测量结果的不确定度评定

文章运用等离子体发射光谱法,建立数学模型,定量分析了石英中钛的含量。     

Exploring tax evasion in the context of political uncertainty

We present a model of agents facing the uncertainty of two future forms of government who are able to insure against this uncertainty by hiding funds from taxation. In order to choose whether or not to hide funds from taxation, agents need to know policy choices that each government would make should it come to power. But each government, before it could make its decision, would need to know the choices of the agents who would, for example, produce tax revenues. This informational tension is resolved endogenously. We derive the resulting level of tax evasion in society and the optimal choices made by the potential governments. We examine how changes in governmental structure would affect the level of tax evasion, and how that, in turn, would affect a particular form of capital flight.     

Global financial uncertainty

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the contraction in world output during the Great Recession would have been 13% milder in absence of GFU shocks. We also find support for a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after a GFU shock, the larger the world output contraction is.     

The impact of economic uncertainty on the decision of fertility: Evidence from Taiwan

Economic uncertainty has only recently begun to appear in research on the determinants of fertility. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate how economic uncertainty affects the fertility rate in Taiwan. Official county-level panel data from 1998 to 2016 for 20 counties are utilized in DIFF-GMM and SYS-GMM models in dynamic panel regression estimation. The major finding of this study is that higher volatility of household disposable income will reduce the fertility rate. The empirical results support the proposition that economic uncertainty might be an important determinant of fertility decisions, explaining the decline in fertility in Taiwan.     

我国知识型员工流失研究综述

知识型员工作为知识的载体,是现代企业最重要的资源。近年,其流失越来越受到学者的关注。已有的研究成果按照研究内容可以归纳为四类:知识型员工流失的原因和影响因素研究;知识型员工流失的风险控制研究;心理契约的知识型员工流失分析。其中,从心理契约角度进行的研究,已经成为近年的新趋势。但就总体而言,目前国内对知识型员工的研究尚处于起步阶段,实证研究相对缺乏;对如何控制其流失的研究还有待进一步深入。     

不确定性会计问题研究

随着研究不确定性会计问题的日益深入,文章重点讨论了低度不确定性经济业务中的固定资产折旧核算所存在的问题,中度不确定性经济业务中的或有事项核算所存在的问题,高度不确定性经济业务典型代表未来事项存在的问题。最后,针对存在的问题提出相应建议。     

Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing

In this paper we examine how model uncertainty due to the preference for robustness (RB) affects optimal taxation and the evolution of debt in the Barro tax-smoothing model (1979). We first study how the government spending shocks are absorbed in the short run by varying taxes or through debt under RB. Furthermore, we show that introducing RB improves the model׳s predictions by generating (i) the observed relative volatility of the changes in tax rates to government spending, (ii) the observed comovement between government deficits and spending, and (iii) more consistent behavior of government budget deficits in the U.S. economy. Finally, we show that RB can also improve the model׳s predictions in the presence of multiple shocks.     

基于价值链理论下知识型员工的管理策略研究

文章从价值链管理理论的角度出发,针对知识型员工管理中出现的人才的风险管理指数增加、工作再设计、价值评价体系的不确定性、新酬设计复杂性、领导界限的模糊性等主要问题进行分析,寻找管理知识型员工的良方。     

Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world

Forecasts are crucial for practically all economic and business decisions. However, there is a mounting body of empirical evidence showing that accurate forecasting in the economic and business world is usually not possible. In addition, there is huge uncertainty, as practically all economic and business activities are subject to events we are unable to predict. The fact that forecasts can be inaccurate creates a serious dilemma for decision and policy makers. On the one hand, accepting the limits of forecasting accuracy implies being unable to assess the correctness of decisions and the surrounding uncertainty. On the other hand, believing that accurate forecasts are possible means succumbing to the illusion of control and experiencing surprises, often with negative consequences. We believe that the time has come for a new attitude towards dealing with the future. In this article, we discuss the limited predictability in the economic and business environment. We also provide a framework that allows decision and policy makers to face the future — despite the inherent limitations of forecasting and the uncertainty, sometimes huge, surrounding most future-oriented decisions.     

企业知识型员工流失的成因及其风险管理

当今企业,知识型员工日益成为企业提升和保持竞争力的宝贵资源。随着企业人员流动日益频繁,如何降低知识型员工流失给企业带来的损失是企业人力资源管理中的难题。从分析知识型员工流失原因以及给企业带来的风险入手,从风险的防范与控制两方面提出了知识型员工流失风险管理的对策。     

The difference a manager can make: organizational justice and knowledge worker commitment

The quality of the employment relationship is argued to be central to knowledge workers' commitment, which in turn supports knowledge creation. Given the high levels of discretion enjoyed by knowledge workers, managers' decisions over work distribution, content and resources become more critical for commitment and knowledge creation. However, little research has explored how justice perceptions shape the quality of the employment relationship and the consequences for commitment. Using a sample of 429 R&D workers from across six science and technology-based firms this paper explores the three-way interaction of procedural and interactional justice with the psychological contract to predict knowledge worker commitment. We found that when employees simultaneously perceived high levels of procedural and interactional justice this moderated the relationship between psychological contract breach and knowledge worker commitment. Furthermore, where there was contract breach, positive perceptions of procedural justice moderated the relationship with commitment. However, in the context of contract fulfilment, low perceived levels of interactional justice predicted lower comparative levels of commitment, regardless of the level of procedural justice.

The results suggest that the perceived quality of the relationship between knowledge workers and their manager can make a positive difference in the context of breach of the psychological contract and this in turn can help maintain levels of commitment important for knowledge creation.     

The differential effects of job design on knowledge workers and manual workers: A quasi‐experimental field study in China

When Taylorism was discarded long ago, job enrichment emerged as a good alternative. Recent research, however, has pointed out the ineffectiveness of job enrichment. This study suggests that both approaches could be effective and looks at job nature as the moderator that can affect how the two approaches are applied. The authors' longitudinal quasi‐experimental field study in China found a significant interaction between worker type (knowledge workers [KWs] versus manual workers [MWs]) and job characteristics on employee outcomes. After enrichment, KWs experienced higher satisfaction and task performance, whereas for MWs, satisfaction and performance declined. This pattern of results suggests that both job enrichment and Taylorism are applicable depending on the job nature. In addition to contributing to job design theory, the present study also explored the unique attributes of KWs and provides practical suggestions as to how human resource managers can better motivate KWs. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Optimal growth under model uncertainty

The optimal growth of a wealth process toward a goal is studied under ambiguous markets with first- and second-order moment uncertainties relating to stock returns. Optimal strategies and value functions are solved explicitly. A verification theorem is proved to show that the results solve the original stochastic control problem. Quantitative analyses of the investment strategies indicate that a rational individual with ambiguity aversion reduces market participation when return and volatility are uncorrelated, while there is an exception for synchronous return and volatility. The welfare of shorting a discounted reward is computed, which demonstrates that in an ambiguous pricing economy, investors can generate a positive premium via appropriate asset allocations.     

The impact of policy,political and economic uncertainty on corporate capital investment in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey

This paper examines the impact of policy, political, and economic uncertainty on firm-level capital investment in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and Turkey. Our results indicate an insignificant relationship between uncertainty and investment in these countries. This finding is robust to six different uncertainty measures, including time-series uncertainty indices that track either local or global uncertainty and country-level electoral activities. The results are also robust to two different proxies for measuring corporate investment. Overall, the real-option mechanism in which firms delay irreversible investment in uncertain times does not hold in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and Turkey.     

The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan

This paper examines the congressional effect between the pre- and post-democratization on the stock market by the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosce desticity (GARCH) model in the period 1984–2004. The results found that the congressional effect is negative effect on stock returns but volatility is not significant. However, the democratic effect on stock returns is negative and increased of volatility. Moreover, the congressional effect on stock market returns following democratization significantly exceeds that before democratization, but have no significant effect for the volatility in the same circumstances. These results provide evidences consistent with the contention of liberalization (Hayek, Am. Econ. Rev. 35, 519–530, Individualism and Economic order, The university of Chicago press, Chicago, London, 1945, 1948; Popper, The open society and its Enemies, Princeton university, NJ, 1950).     

Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We apply the Waveform Relaxation algorithm, i.e., we provide a guess of the policy function and solve the resulting system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations by standard techniques. For parametric restrictions, analytical solutions to the stochastic growth model and a novel solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households.