改善我们等车的日子——对成都市磨公交站规划配置的研究

随着我国市场经济的发展,人民水平的提高,出行频率的增多。交通的发展成为了人们越来越关注的话题,无论是远途旅行还是日常出行,交通的便捷程度直接影响着我们的工作时间和出行效率。本次交通调查着眼于城市公交的微缩景观———公交站,对其单体设计、总体规划、车站管理三方面进行调查,分析存在问题,提出改善建议,为我市公交车站未来的建设与管理提供参考,以给候车人群营造一个更为舒适的候车环境。     

Multivariate time series analysis of traffic congestion measures in urban areas as they relate to socioeconomic indicators

Traffic congestion has significant adverse implications for the environment and economy. Many state and local transportation agencies have implemented traffic congestion management practices to alleviate the negative implications of urban traffic. One of the major drawbacks of traffic congestion management practices is that they do not account for socio-demographic and economic factors, which have a significant impact on traffic congestion. Understanding the influence of these factors is very crucial because they can help to communicate the system's performance management and target setting. Only a few studies analyzed the relationship between traffic conditions (e.g., traffic demand and vehicular traveling speed) with a limited number of socio-economic factors. Moreover, most of the existing models ignore the temporal and spatial autocorrelations of traffic congestion, which may significantly limit their reliability and effectiveness. This study is developed with the purpose of identifying the most relevant external factors that affect traffic congestion performance measures. To conduct the research, we have used three urban congestion performance measures collected from 51 metropolitan areas across the U.S. over a four-year period, 2013–2016: travel time index, planning time index, and congested hours. We have used multivariate time series models to account for the complex inter-relationships among the performance measures and socioeconomic factors to identify the most influential factors affecting system performance. We have finally developed predictive models to estimate the traffic congestion measures using these factors. The results of rigorous modeling show that the factors influencing the traffic congestion measures are monthly average daily traffic (MADT), the number of employed, rental vacancy rate, building permits, fuel price index, and Economic Conditions Index (ECI). The prediction models indicated that the effects of these factors are statistically significant and could be used to forecast future trends in three performance measures accurately.     

兰州市公用机械式立体停车库规划研究

随着经济的快速发展。停车难成为城市发展中一个亟待解决的问题，机械式立体停车库是城市停车场的一种形式，具有占地面积小、空间利用率高等优势，在当前城市用地资源日趋紧张的情况下，从城市交通总体角度规划一定数量的公共类机械式立体停车库，缓解城市交通压力。文章以兰州市重点区域为例，分析了城市机械式立体停车库应用规划研究，并对兰州市重点区域进行了具体规划，以推动停车科技产业发展。可有效缓解兰州市停车难现状。     

高职院校教育研究机构的发展趋势与定位

高等职业技术教育的迅速发展是我国高等教育迅速发展和教育改革的助推器。文章分析了高等教育研究机构的发展,并对我国高职院校教育研究机构的定位进行了理性思考。     

带时间窗的多目标配送线路选择问题的目标规划模型

基于客户等待时间的含义和目标规划原理,为带时间窗的多目标物流配送线路选择问题构造了线性目标规划模型。建模时考虑了运输费用最小、运输时间和所有客户的等待时间最短三个相互冲突的目标。     

Scientific planning of urban cordon sanitaire for desired queuing time

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted ofur normal life. Many cities enforced a cordon sanitaire as a countermeasure to protect densely inhabited areas. Travelers can only cross the cordon after being checked. To minimize the waiting time in the queue, this paper proposes a method to determine the scientific planning of urban cordon sanitaire for desired queuing time, which is a significant problem that has not been explored. A novel two-stage optimization model is proposed where the first stage is the transportation system equilibrium problem to predict traffic inflow, and the second stage is the queuing network design problem to determine the allocation of test stations. This method aims to minimize the total health infrastructure investment for the desired maximum queuing time. Note that queuing theory is used to represent the queuing phenomenon at each urban entrance. A heuristic algorithm is designed to solve the proposed model where the Method of Successive Averages (MSA) is adopted for the first stage, and the Genetic Algorithm (GA) with elite strategy is adopted for the second stage. An experimental study with sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The results show that the methods can find a good heuristic optimal solution. This research is helpful for policymakers to determine the optimal investment and planning of cordon sanitaire for disease prevention and control, as well as other criminal activities such as drunk driving, terrorists, and smuggling.     

集装箱港口交通规划研究

以一在建的大型集装箱港口为例．对其后方港区进行了交通规划研究。分析了港区现状交通的特点．预测了规划年集装箱卡车的出行生成量，并采用了TransCAD软件进行交通分配，合理地模拟了路网中实际的交通流情况．为改善港区的变通状况、优化港区的集疏运系统给出科学的建议。     

基于道路负荷度的北京城市快速路交通状态评价

鉴于传统道路负荷度(V/C)可能对应两种交通状态的情况,基于时间占有率重新定义了道路负荷度的计算方法,并根据大量的统计数据确定了北京市快速路道路负荷度的分级标准。该方法能够根据交通流检测器数据对道路交通负荷程度进行实时、动态评价,并通过北京市二环路数据的实验结果初步验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Applications of the Likelihood Theory in Finance: Modelling and Pricing

This paper discusses the connection between mathematical finance and statistical modelling which turns out to be more than a formal mathematical correspondence. We like to figure out how common results and notions in statistics and their meaning can be translated to the world of mathematical finance and vice versa. A lot of similarities can be expressed in terms of LeCam’s theory for statistical experiments which is the theory of the behaviour of likelihood processes. For positive prices the arbitrage free financial assets fit into statistical experiments. It is shown that they are given by filtered likelihood ratio processes. From the statistical point of view, martingale measures, completeness, and pricing formulas are revisited. The pricing formulas for various options are connected with the power functions of tests. For instance the Black–Scholes price of a European option is related to Neyman–Pearson tests and it has an interpretation as Bayes risk. Under contiguity the convergence of financial experiments and option prices are obtained. In particular, the approximation of Itô type price processes by discrete models and the convergence of associated option prices is studied. The result relies on the central limit theorem for statistical experiments, which is well known in statistics in connection with local asymptotic normal (LAN) families. As application certain continuous time option prices can be approximated by related discrete time pricing formulas.     

A Path Construction for the Virtual Waiting Time of an M/G/1 Queue

Consider the M/G/1 queue, the finite dam M/G/1 with capacity T, and the impatient customer M/G/1 model, where customers become lost customers if their waiting time exceeds τ. In this note we prove that for all three models and each xe(0, r) the distribution of the number of downcrossings of the virtual waiting time process with level x during a busy cycle is identical. This implies the weaker statement that on [0, T) the distribution functions of the steady state distributions of the amount of unprocessed work (virtual waiting time) are proportional. A number of applications is given.     

金融危机下当代大学生职业生涯规划现状和课程建设研究——以甘肃农业大学为例

职业生涯规划在当代大学生就业形势日益严重的情况下,尤其是近几年金融危机影响下显得更为迫切与重要。我国大学生的职业生涯规划课程建设的问题主要表现在:大学生缺乏专业实践能力,在职业生涯规划中存在性别及专业差异;职业生涯规划课程建设中存在缺乏全程性、连续性和针对性的问题,师资建设相对薄弱。针对以上问题大学生应提高自身的职业生涯规划能力,高校应明确该课程的目标,完善该课程体系;加强针对性指导;逐步建立和完善高素质、专业化的职业生涯指导教师队伍。     

Een meer-loketten probleem met overwerk

In an office a number of employees do the same kind of work. The jobs arrive at random and the holding time is exponential; the queuediscipline is first in, first served. The mean queuelength is shortened by work done in overtime according to the rule that on every day on which the total number of jobs exceeds a certain number N, one or more extra hours of work will be done. The distribution of the number of jobs in the office, the mean value of this number and the probability of overtime are given. The model is illustrated with a numerical example.     

Dispatching and routing of emergency vehicles in disaster mitigation using data fusion

The aim of this paper is to develop a robust methodology for the dispatching and routing of emergency vehicles (EVs) in a post-disaster environment with the support of data fusion. In this work, we consider an earthquake scenario with a large number of casualties needing medical attention. Given an influx of information (regarding casualties, road, traffic conditions, etc.), data are fused to provide estimates of the entities under consideration. We use this information to dispatch and route EVs to casualty pickup locations, followed by delivery to appropriate hospitals. Key factors here include patient priorities, clustering criteria, and distance. Similarly, factors affecting the dispatching of EVs from patient locations to hospitals include waiting time at hospital emergency rooms, hospital capacity, and distance. Routes must be generated for EVs by accounting for real-world road networks, existing road damage, congestion, and related issues. We develop a dispatching and routing simulation model, and utilize a case study to evaluate the performance of our proposed methodology.     

A quantitative index of access to primary medical care for health planning

The emphasis of Public Law 93–641 on numerical goals of health care, as elaborated upon by the National Health Planning Council in its guidelines, foreshadows the emergence of quantitative indices in many areas of health resources utilization and health outcomes. In the area of access to primary medical care, the guidelines spell out in detail what is considered the reasonable waiting period for an appointment, travelling time to the source of care, and in-office waiting time for individuals seeking care. An index of access is developed on the basis of these reasonable limits of waiting for health services research and planning purposes. An example of hypothesis-testing with hypothetical data is given, along with a caveat in the interpretation of the results.     

转变观念 蓝领职业大有可为

随着我国经济迅猛发展,经济体制和经济增长方式已经发生了根本性转变,经济结构和产业结构实现了战略性调整。全球经济一体化使中国已经成为了"世界加工厂",迫切要求培养大批高素质、高质量的产业大军,而现实中人们对蓝领认识有误区、有偏差,家长和学生都不愿意涉足蓝领领域,致使蓝领人才奇缺,给经济发展带来了桎梏,如何转变观念,正确认识蓝领职业迫在眉睫。     

Congestion Caused by Speed Differences

This paper investigates road traffic congestion caused by speed differences using both analytical and numerical simulation models. Especially outside peak hours, speed differences are probably one of the most important reasons for congestion. Some main conclusions are that optimal tolls for slow vehicles are higher than those for fast drivers, that the marginal external costs and the optimal tolls for slow drivers are actually decreasing in the equilibrium number of slow drivers, and that “platooning” may become an attractive option especially when the desire for a low speed is caused by a lower value of time.     

渭南市朝阳天桥周边道路缓堵解决方案

针对渭南朝阳天桥周边在下班高峰期出现的严重交通拥堵和交通安全隐患问题,文中分析朝阳天桥周边具体公共设施设置和造成拥堵的实际原因,认为渭南市朝阳天桥道路拥堵的症结在于机动车和非机动车混行引起的路面暂时性拥堵。从城市规划的角度,建议应设置人行道护栏和重置公交站点,并结合土地利用现状,建议应在交通高峰期应该加大路口通行能力和人行道的利用率,用以解决非机动车非法侵占道路现象,考虑到交通的群体性特点,提出应在拥堵的高峰期加强管制力度。     

Planning and performance in public organizations An empirical analysis

The impact of planning on organizational performance in the public sector has been widely debated but has never previously been tested empirically. We develop a statistical model of planning effects that contains five explanatory variables: the extent of organizational analysis, the extent of environmental scanning, the number of precise performance targets, the existence of formal action plans for service improvement and the attitudes of staff involved in the planning process. This model is applied to data obtained from seventy services in Welsh local government. The statistical evidence shows that organizational performance is positively related to favourable attitudes towards planning processes, but negatively related to the number of targets that are set. On balance, the results are consistent with a small positive effect of planning on the performance of public organizations.     

浅论OCE服务与高职高专物流管理专业实训相结合的可行性

同城快运是以城市公共交通系统（包括城市公交、BRT、地铁、轻轨等）为主要运输方式，非公共汽车、自行车等为辅助运输方式，在最短的时间（不超过5小时）实现物品在同一个城市区域范围内位置有效转移的物流活动，它低碳高效的同时要求它需要大量较高素质的人力资源，而高职高专有大量的物流专业学生可以满足其要求，近年来高职高专对学生的技能要求越来越高，要实现学生与就业的零距离，从而大力推行厂中校、校中厂、工学结合、理实一体的教学改革，OCE服务需要大量的人力，提供众多的岗位，满足高职高专学生实训实习的要求，同时会创造巨大的经济效益，实现双赢，本中主要就双方结合的可能性进行分析论述。     

Commuter arrivals and optimal service in mass transit: Does queuing behavior at transit stops matter?

This paper considers whether the optimal (second-best) mass-transit policy under a uniform-fare constraint is affected by passengers' queuing disciplines, by comparing the first-in-first-out (FIFO) and the random-access queuing. We analyze the problem by extending the model of mass-transit in Kraus and Yoshida (JUE(2002)) to the case of random-access queuing. The model involves the optimal number and capacity of trains as well as pricing. It is shown that, when the shadow value of a unit of waiting time exceeds that of a unit time of being late, the passengers' queuing discipline does not have any effect on the optimal (second-best) mass-transit policy including the number of trains and runs, scheduling, and pricing. If in turn, the shadow value of a unit of waiting time is smaller than that of being late, then aggregate travel costs are lower with random-access queuing than with FIFO, due to randomization of passengers' positions in a mass.