我国证券市场正反馈交易的实证检验

正反馈交易是投资者依据证券t-1期收益高低决定其第t期买卖行为的一种交易策略,这种交易策略广泛存在于世界各国的证券市场中,使证券市场表现出超常的波动性。本文使用上证指数和深证指数对我国证券市场的正反馈交易进行了实证研究,结果显示我国证券市场同样存在显著的正反馈交易现象,这种现象降低了市场的稳定性。     

市场分割下中国股市反馈交易实证研究——来自A股、B股和H股市场的经验证据

文章在行为资本资产定价模型(BCAPM)的基础上,通过借鉴Watanabe(2002)的方法,建立了GJR-GARCHM(1,1)-M模型,充分考虑中国股票市场处于分割状态的现状,使用基本覆盖A股、B股和H股市场全部交易历史的市场指数日收盘价数据,对A股、B股和H股市场的反馈交易行为进行研究和比较,结果显示:A股和B股市场都存在显著的正反馈交易效应,反馈交易行为主要取决于波动率水平和市场涨跌两个因素;与成熟股票市场类似,H股和红筹股市场的正反馈交易行为不显著;A股市场的反馈交易行为受市场涨跌因素影响更大,而B股市场的反馈交易行为主要由波动率水平决定;深市比沪市更容易出现正反馈交易者主导市场的现象。文章的研究不仅对行为资本资产定价理论的成立提供了经验性证据,而且对投资经理的实践操作和政策制定者的监管调控都具有一定的参考价值。     

Does Real Estate Defy Gravity? An Analysis of Foreign Real Estate Investment Flows

This paper investigates the scale and determinants of foreign investment flows between national real estate markets. Using data for over 100 countries over 2007–2012, the results indicate that, consistent with previous studies for trade, foreign direct and portfolio investment variables such as size and distance have significant effects on foreign real estate investment flows. Large positive size effects are consistent with a combination of scale economies and information externalities producing investment concentration across markets and in conjunction with direct and indirect transaction costs specific to real estate markets. Physical distance coefficients are relatively small compared to the studies of FDI.     

Transmission of shocks across global real estate and equity markets: An examination of the 2007–2008 housing crisis

This study analyses the impact of the 2007–2008 U.S. financial crisis on the structure of interdependence among several major global real estate and equity markets. Moreover, it performs a step-by-step comparative analysis to evaluate similarities and differences in the convergence patterns of global real estate markets vis-à-vis global equity markets. Long-run results indicate that global real estate markets were less integrated than global equity markets prior to the crisis. Since the crisis, however, both global real estate and global equity markets have become highly integrated with the U.S. real estate and equity markets, respectively, and have fully converged. Short-run analyses indicate that during the pre-crisis period, global real estate markets were highly exogenous and independent. In contrast, global equity markets were comparatively more interdependent with one another and more endogenous. After the crisis, however, both global real estate and equity markets reacted strongly to shocks emanating from the U.S. markets, although the impact of the U.S. real estate market on the global real estate market is more pronounced than the effect of the U.S. equity market on the global equity markets. Finally, the study shows that U.S. real estate and equity markets are the channels of transmission or the sources of trends that drive global markets over the long-run and the short-run.     

Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework

This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between real estate markets, in the US and the UK and their macroeconomic environments. We apply a new approach based on a dynamic coherence function (DCF) to study these interactions bringing together different real estate markets (the securitized market, the commercial market and the residential market). The results suggest that there is a common trend that drives the different real estate markets in the UK and the US, particularly in the long run, since they have a similar shape of the DCF. We also find that, in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, in the UK, only the wealth effect is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. In addition, real estate markets in the UK and the US react differently to institutional shocks. This brings some insights on the conduct of monetary policy in order to avoid disturbances in real estate markets.     

中国房市与股市关联度研究

本文从投资回报角度构建了一个房地产空间市场与房地产资本市场关联度的理论模型。该理论模型显示,本期股价与本期房价呈正相关关系,与下期房价呈负相关关系。本文采用系统GMM估计法对深沪两市61家房地产上市公司1996—2007年度的数据进行实证分析,结果发现,房市与股市具有很强关联度,但房市对股市影响大于股市对房市影响。其次,租金变动对房价和股价变动无显著影响。最后,房价波动具有明显序列相关性,而股价波动具有随机游走特征。     

Regime dependent volatilities and correlation in international securitized real estate markets

This paper studies the role of regime shifts and time-varying volatilities in market integration in a Markov-switching volatility regime environment among the US, European and Asian developed securitized real estate markets. With a two-state volatility model, the study finds the co-dependence, co-movement and synchronization of volatility regime at the high volatility state are stronger between the US and European securitized real estate markets. Although correlations among the markets are higher in a high volatility regime than in a low volatility regime, there is limited evidence of contagious effects during the high volatility periods between some markets. Moreover, the unsecuritized real estate markets are different from their securitized equivalent in the volatility regime characteristics, correlation pattern and level, as well as the extent of correlation change and contagion effect in high volatility state. Thus, the regime-switching results from stock markets may not be automatically extended to the corresponding public real estate markets, and requires rigorous empirical scrutiny.     

Price and volatility dynamics between securitized real estate spot and futures markets

This study is among the first to examine the price, volatility and covariance dynamics between securitized real estate spot and futures markets. It provides a distinctive and yet complementary perspective on the predictability of real estate spot return and spot volatility based on the information from the spot market alone. The results show that for the EPRA/NAREIT Europe index, the spot market tends to lead its futures market in the long run during the sample period, which can be attributed to a rather illiquid real estate futures market in sharp contrast with a voluminous spot market. Furthermore, we find the V-shaped asymmetric effect of the basis on the futures market volatility, which represents the primary channel of strong volatility transmission between securitized real estate spot and futures markets during the whole sample and the post-crisis period. This sheds light on the hedging effectiveness for the REIT index.     

房地产市场中的噪声交易行为研究

房地产市场存在着明显的噪声交易行为。文章通过噪声交易模型研究,结合我国房地产市场的实际情况,发现因为噪声交易者的非理性行为而产生的正反馈效应导致房地产价格的剧烈波动和单方面持续上涨。     

The asymmetric price adjustment between REIT and stock markets in Asia-Pacific markets

This paper applies the threshold error correction model to examine the relationship for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and stock, and their asymmetric adjustment behaviors in six Asian/Pacific financial markets: Australia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong. Our results show that there has been long-term equilibrium in REIT and stock indices in most of these markets. To earn exceptional profits, it is recommended that investors can sell (buy) the REITs when the indices of REITs are lower (higher) than equilibrium in Australia, Singapore and Taiwan; on the other hand, they should sell (buy) when the REIT market goes up (down) in Hong Kong and Japan. A causality test revealed that previous information about stocks predicted changes in the REITs in all the Asian/Pacific markets. One can also find that the lead–lag relationships are significant. The threshold EC model predicts two-way causality under both the regimes for the financial markets in most countries during all the sample periods. In addition, the adjustment speeds for the stock indices are faster than that for the REIT indices as disequilibrium occurs. This paper also finds that the previous mentioned trading strategies generally remained the same during the period of sub-prime mortgage crisis. However, the threshold EC model predicts one-way causality for both the regimes for the financial markets in most countries during this crisis period. In addition, we also find that the severe shock in REIT markets led investors in Australia and Taiwan to be more conservative during this period. The REIT indices had more effect on stock indices after the sub-prime mortgage crisis. According to the empirical results, we can infer that the degree of market imbalance and the occurrence of the sub-prime mortgage crisis induce the changes in the investment behavior of market participants.     

Non-linear causality between the stock and real estate markets of Western European countries: Evidence from rank tests

Using the non-parametric rank tests proposed by Breitung (2001), we set out in this study to determine whether any non-linear long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the stock and real estate markets of Western European countries. We go on to adopt the threshold error-correction model (TECM) to determine whether a similar relationship is discernible possibly non-linear functions of the log-price of these two markets. The findings clearly point to the existence of long-run unidirectional and bidirectional causality between the real estate market and the stock market in regions both above and below the threshold level. Finally, we find the existence of both wealth and credit price effects in the real estate markets and stock markets of Western European countries, which thereby offer financial institutions and individual investors in their construction of long-term investment portfolios within these two asset markets.     

Volatility transmission to the fine wine market

The goal of this paper is to explore volatility transmission from various markets to the fine wine market. Knowledge of these channels for transmitting volatility to the wine market allows practitioners to anticipate the future volatility and the consequences of a shock on the wine market, to develop their investment strategy and diversify their risk. We especially analyse the impact of U.S. markets (i.e. art, commodities, credit, financial and real estate) during the 2007–2017 period. We shed additional light on how the volatility of the fine wine market varies during an extended period including a financial crisis. Our results indicate that, in the short-term, volatility is transmitted with a negative effect through the financial and commodity markets and with a positive effect through the art, residential real estate, and credit default markets. In the long-term, the wine market is impacted by all other markets. We show that correlations are time-varying.     

How globally contagious was the recent US real estate market crisis? Evidence based on a new contagion test

This paper utilizes a new contagion test based on case-resampling bootstrap technique to investigate whether there is any contagion effect in the interaction of the US real estate market with those of Australia, Japan and the UK arising out of the recent US real estate crisis or subprime crisis. Contrary to expectations, it is found that the relationship of the US market with the other markets following the US real estate market crisis cannot be characterized as one with contagion effect. Its relationship with the other markets is rather characterized by dependency behavior that prevails regardless whether the markets are under distress or not.     

How integrated are real estate markets with the world market? Evidence from case-wise bootstrap analysis

We investigate the extent by which real estate markets are integrated with the world market. We apply a case-wise bootstrap analysis — a method that is robust to non-normality and increased volatility that characterises financial markets, especially during periods of distress. We also take into account the effect of the global financial crisis. Our investigation is conducted in relation to five most important and highly internationalised real estate markets, namely, the US, UK, Japan, Australia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We find that the first four markets are integrated with the world market — with Japan, the US, and the UK being the most integrated, but the last one is not. Our results also show that the US real estate market crisis affected the five markets differently. It made the UAE, Australia and the US real estate markets more integrated internationally but resulted in the Japanese market becoming less globally integrated. In the case of the UK, the crisis did not affect at all its level of integration with the world market.     

中国房地产市场的地域特征分析

建立在全国性市场假设基础之上的关于我国房地产业市场集中度较"低"和"过度竞争"的推断,忽视了其本地性。事实上,由于房地产市场的本地特征,不同"板块"间相互分离。房地产企业只是与"板块"内相邻的企业发生竞争,即便是这样,它们也还都有其各自的垄断市场区;加之房地产业存在较高的进入壁垒,垄断性较强,房地产企业拥有着较强的市场力量①。     

Long-Memory,Asymmetry and Fat-Tailed GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Global Real Estate Markets

In this paper, we address the question of whether long memory, asymmetry, and fat-tails in global real estate markets volatility matter when forecasting the two most popular measures of risk in financial markets, namely Value-at-risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ESF), for both short and long trading positions. The computations of both VaR and ESF are conducted with three long memory GARCH-class models including the Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH), Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH), and Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH (FIAPARCH). These models are estimated under three alternative innovation’s distributions: normal, Student, and skewed Student. To test the efficacy of the forecast, we employ various backtesting methodologies. Our empirical findings show that considering for long memory, fat-tails, and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one-day-ahead VaR and ESF for both short and long trading positions. In particular, the forecasting ability analysis points out that the FIAPARCH model under skewed Student distribution turns out to improve substantially the VaR and ESF forecasts. These results may have several potential implications for the market participants, financial institutions, and the government.

     

Are securitised real estate markets efficient?: New international evidence based on an improved automatic Portmanteau test

We re-examine the efficiency of real estate markets based on the Escanciano-Lobato (2009) autocorrelation test which we improved by means of wild bootstrapping. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we find that the wild bootstrap-based autocorrelation test has very good performance even in small samples. We apply the improved test to examine the efficiency of 14 international securitized real estate markets—Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States. Our results show that only six of these markets—Australia, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Sweden and the United States are efficient while the rest are inefficient. We also find that the degree of efficiency or inefficiency of each of these markets varies considerably across time. These findings indicate that real estate markets are relatively less efficient as compared to stock and bond markets in general and may also offer an explanation as to why existing studies on real estate market efficiency have mixed results.     

房地产市场噪声交易行为分析——基于进化博弈理论的视角

噪声交易是房地产市场长期存在的一种现象,理性交易者与噪声交易者也长期并存于房地产市场。本文运用进化博弈理论研究房地产市场噪声交易者行为,分析噪声交易行为的复制动态,得到了理性投资者不可能利用投机行为把噪声交易者逐出市场的结论,同时给出了当博弈达到稳定均衡时选择理性交易策略和噪声交易策略的比例。     

A Time-Varying Risk Analysis of Equity and Real Estate Markets in the US and Japan

The paper offers some new evidence which suggests that Japanese equity and real estate markets might not necessarily behave in a parallel manner to US capital markets. These results are obtained from an examination of the nature of expected and unexpected movements in the returns of Japanese assets and US assets using a present-value model which allows for a time-varying expected discount rate in conjunction with a VAR process. Based on data from 1972–92, it is found that one distinctive difference is that changes in the future expected return for Japanese real estate and stocks are less persistent over time than their US counterparts. It is also found that the impact of Japanese markets on the US market was relatively small. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the US equity market had some significant impact on the Japanese equity market. Returns on Japanese stocks also exhibit a weaker mean reversion process relative to returns on US stocks and US real estate.     

Inflation-hedging properties of regional Chinese real estate market: evidence from 35 cities in China

The housing markets in China have been gaining considerable interest from investors, but the inflation-hedging characteristics of housing remain ambiguous. Based on Chinese city-level data, this study evaluates different inflation-hedging properties in eastern, middle and western real estate markets using panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) models. Findings suggest middle real estate markets afford the best hedging opportunities for expected inflation, which is robust considering housing market heterogeneity, financial crisis and the 2010 purchase restriction order. Moreover, hedging efficacy of anticipated inflation differs between markets with low and high supply–demand ratio.