Are there ENSO signals in the macroeconomy?

Whether ENSO has affected U.S. macroeconomic performance has been a matter of dispute. To address the issue we explore whether there has been any co-cyclicality of ENSO fluctuations and the rates of inflation and economic growth over the 1894-1999 timespan and, failing this, whether aperiodic ENSO shocks have had any impact on these variables. Neither co-cyclicality nor aperiodic shocks are discernible. While ENSO may briefly influence the performance of particular sectors of the economy in particular regions, as documented by the previous literature, such locally-important effects vanish into the noise surrounding macroeconomic trends in an economy as large and complex as that of the U.S.     

Are leniency programs too generous?

I present a simple model of collusion in which the competition authority offers leniency rates contingent on the number of firms that report information. The optimal leniency policy involves what I refer to as a single informant rule—that is, leniency should be given only when a single firm reports information. The single informant rule allows to increase expected sanctions compared to the first informant rule, which overall improves cartel deterrence.     

Evidence on the importance of cognitive ability tests for NFL quarterbacks: what are the relationships among Wonderlic scores,draft positions and NFL performance outcomes?

Employing data on National Football League (NFL) quarterbacks drafted between 2002 and 2012, the authors consider whether factors correlated with a quarterback being more productive in the NFL are the same factors that correlate with an improved draft position. In particular, the authors consider the relevance of scores on the Wonderlic test. Contrary to all prior literature on the subject, the authors find that performance on the Wonderlic test is positively correlated with NFL performance. However, the authors find no clear evidence that Wonderlic scores are correlated with draft position. Beyond this primary finding, the authors reveal many other interesting results that should help researchers better understand a quarterback’s progression from college to the NFL.     

Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks?

This article examines the velocity and asymmetry of the response of bank interest rates to monetary policy shocks. Using an asymmetric vector error correction model, it analyses the pass-through of changes in money market rates to retail bank interest rates in Italy in the period 1985–2002. The main results of the article are: (1) the speed of adjustment of bank interest rates to monetary policy changes increased significantly after the introduction of the 1993 Consolidated Law on Banking; (2) interest rate adjustment in response to positive and negative shocks is asymmetric in the short run, but not in the long run; (3) banks adjust their loan (deposit) rate faster during periods of monetary tightening (easing); (4) this asymmetry almost vanished since the 1990s.     

Are there political cycles hidden inside government expenditures?

This article examines the presence of political cycles inside the Portuguese governments’ aggregate expenditures by using annual data for 10 expenditure components. The results indicate that the choice of the expenditure components to be increased during election periods by Portuguese governments generally relates to more visible items such as general public services, social protection and health care.     

Are there cycles in realistic overlapping cohorts models?

Following Gale, 1973 (J. Econ. Theory 4, 110–137), Benhabib and Day, 1982 (J. Econ. Dyn. Control 4, 37–55) and Grandmont, 1985 (Econmetrica 45, 995–1045) proved the existence of P-cycles in Overlapping Generations (OLG) models. Aiyagari, 1989 (Q. J. Econ 104, 163–185) considered Overlapping Cohorts (OLC) models, with very long-lived agents of positively discounted utility functions and proved nonexistence of 2-cycles. We study OLC models with agents of normal life spans and utilities and show that: (1) for constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility (except for Leontief case), no 2-cycle exists; and (2) for Cobb-Douglas utility, no P-cycle exists.     

Are there asymmetries of nonlinearities in UK output?

This paper investigates whether quarterly post-war UK output growth contains either asymmetries or nonlinearities through subjecting the series to a variety of diagnostic testa and by fiting various nonlinear business cycle models. No evidence is uncovered of any form of asymetric or nonlinear departure from the pure random walk with drift model of output.     

Are there asymmetries in UK Consumption? A time series analysis

In this paper we use time series techniques in order to test for asymmetric dynamics in UK consumption. The notion that fluctuation over the business cycle are asymmetric has been put forward at various times in the last century. Nevertheless, the most common representations of aggregate time series in macroeconomies are usually smooth and sluggish. The use of time series methods should be considered as only the first stage of an empirical investigation of asymmetries. It is also essential to develop economic models of asymmetric behaviour and to employ tests of asymmetric adjustment at the level structural realtionship.     

Are there inherent biases in applying cost–benefit analysis?

This article extends discussions of potential biases that can exist in applying cost–benefit analysis. While there is extensive evidence that capture can result in stakeholder manipulation of inputs, there are also claims that the analysis is inherently theoretically bias in favour of over acceptance. The article shows that, contrary to these latter claims, treating projects in isolation is unlikely to produce such bias; indeed, it is as likely as not to lead to suboptimally low acceptance rates. The reason for excessive acceptance of projects therefore is largely due to institutional capture of the analysis for either self-interest or natural human over-optimism.     

Are the Energy Efficiency Technologies efficient?

This paper investigates a rather neglected issue regarding the impact of Energy Efficiency Technologies (EETs) on firms' productive performance. Possible influences may arise in the context of internal cost of adjustment, learning by doing effects and the capital vintage. A unique dataset was used which has resulted from a survey carried out among a sample of Greek EET adopters in the manufacturing sector. An econometric framework based on nested non-neutral frontiers, was developed to estimate the influence and the decomposition of EETs on firms' productive performance. The empirical findings reveal that the EETs affect positively the firms' technical efficiency and negatively the deterministic part of the frontier. Significant variations among industries and size groups appear to be present. Some policy implications are derived based on the empirical evidence supporting a mix of energy and technology directions.