技术分析与超额收益率研究进展

技术分析能否帮助投资者获得超额收益率是金融理论界广泛关注的问题之一。早期理论界主要采用传统t检验方法,得出技术分析无效的结论;随着计算机的普遍应用,布鲁克等人（Brock et al）基于传统t检验存在的计量误差,采取脱靴检验方法,认为技术分析能够带来显著的超额收益率,随后,有学者认为股票收益率呈现非线性相关的特征,采用前向人工神经网络模型进行分析,得到技术分析有效的结论;然而,数据窥查效应的剔除使得技术分析获得的超额收益率减少,遗传规划模型的应用也使得技术分析有效的结论受到了较大的质疑。因此,目前对于技术分析是否有效这一问题,并没有形成一致的结论,依然有较大的研究空间。     

测度政府技术效率的模型与方法比较研究

技术效率是在产出规模不变,市场价格不变的条件下,按照既定的要素投入比例所能达到的最小生产成本占实际生产成本的百分比。政府技术效率是广义的政府绩效或效率的一个部分,它是政府提供公共服务过程中能够测度的政府投入与政府产出之间的比例关系。测度政府技术效率主要的模型与方法有非参数前沿法和参数前沿法。非参数前沿法主要包括数据包络法分析（DEA）和自由处置包（FDH）,而参数前沿法主要包括随机前沿法（SFA）、模糊边界法（TFA）和确定性前沿法（DFA）。通过建立模型科学对政府技术效率进行评估与测度可提高政府各个方面的科学性和有效性,从而促进政府技术效率的提高。     

基于DEA的新疆玉米生产效率地区差异分析

由于经济条件和生产投入的不同,新疆各地州玉米的生产效率存在着一定差异。本文采用数据包络分析(DEA)方法,对新疆2006年9个玉米主产区的技术效率和规模效率进行了测算,并按相对生产效率的大小将9个地州进行了分类。结果显示只有喀什地区和伊犁州DEA是有效的,各玉米产区生产效率的差异主要是投入方面的差异。通过本文,为构建粮食后备产区提供科学的决策依据,并为各地州提出了生产效率的改进方案和对策建议。     

What can we learn from the history of gasoline crack spreads?: Long memory,structural breaks and modeling implications

In this paper, we investigate the long-range auto-correlations of crack spreads using a nonparametric method, named detrended moving average (MF-DMA). We find that the auto-correlations display multiscaling behaviors and are dominated by the anti-persistence (mean-reversion) in the long-term. Moreover, the auto-correlations are multifractal, indicating that various small and large fluctuations display different scaling behaviors. Using a technique of rolling windows, we find that some extreme events can drive the degree of anti-persistence and the multifractality (complexity) to rise up. In other words, these events have negative impacts on market efficiency. However, the effects of these events are not alike. We also detect long-range auto-correlations in crack spread volatilities and find a strong persistent behavior and multifractality. Finally, we discuss the modeling implications of the findings on long-range auto-correlated patterns. Our results indicate that ARFIMA-GARCH models can capture the major dynamics of large fluctuations. For small fluctuations, they are misspecified. Interestingly, we find that the strong long-range auto-correlated behaviors do not imply that ARFIMA model which takes long memory into account can outperform random walk model in the sense of out-of-sample prediction. The major reason may be that market complexity exploited in this paper causes the low predictability of ARFIMA model.     

Reversing disbursement rates to estimate stationary wealth processes for endowments with recursive preferences

Endowments have been accused of hoarding their wealth. However, the theoretically ideal spending plan remains unclear and, in practice, endowments follow a range of rules. Here we derive and estimate the optimal spending plans of an infinitely lived charity or endowment with an Epstein-Zin-Weil utility function, given general Markovian returns to wealth. We analyse two special cases: first, where spending is a power function of last period’s wealth; and second where the endowment uses ‘payout smoothing’. Via non-linear least squares, we estimate the optimal spending rate and the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution for an endowment with a typical diversified portfolio and for a portfolio of hedge funds. In a new approach, we use maximum entropy methods to characterize the returns distribution of an endowment whose spending plan conforms with the optimality condition. We confirm that the estimated returns distribution is largely consistent with the optimal spending plan.     

Clues for discriminating between moving average and autoregressive models in spatial processes

In this paper we try to provide additional insight into the problem of how to discriminate between the two most common spatial processes: the autoregressive and the moving average. This problem, whose analogous time series is apparently simple, acquires a certain complexity when it is considered in an irregular system of spatial units, mainly because there are few tools to carry out this discussion. Nevertheless, even with this lack, we believe that it is possible to make some progress using the methods available at present. In this paper we discuss the advantages and inconveniences of the different techniques that can help us to discriminate between both processes. We finish off the examination with a Monte Carlo exercise, and an application to the European regional income, which has enabled us to better understand the performance of several proposals such as the Lagrange Multipliers, the so-called Variance criterion and the tests of Vuong and Clarke.      

An alternative approach to the monitoring of technological diffusion via foreign direct investment: evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector

The existing studies of foreign direct investment and the corresponding technological diffusion process that they generate, focus either on specific parameters of the production process in isolation, or they combine certain parameters to construct indices that are not consistent across studies. The present analysis proposes an alternative approach that captures the entire production process and multinational firms are viewed as the platform that transfers more advanced technologies to the host countries. As multinational firms are able to utilise more efficiently the available production process, an efficiency gap ensues between the domestically owned firms of a country and the multinational firms that operate in it. We capture and provide a measure and a monitoring mechanism of the technological diffusion process via foreign direct investment through the evolution of the efficiency gap between the two groups of firms whilst controlling for other variables that might contribute to such a gap. We apply our approach to the manufacturing sector of the Greek economy that experiences a consistent presence of foreign direct investment inflows over the time period 2001–2007.     

Public and Private Investment in the Port Sector in Mexico, 2000-2010： A Study Through Data Envelopment Analysis

Knowing the level of efficiency of investment applied in ports of Mexico is relevant information for the design of port policies that contribute to its development and thus to greater freight movement. The objective of this paper is to analyze the technical efficiency obtained from International Mexican Ports, through the use of the technique of Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA）. It uses data regarding public and private investment in ports applied during the period 2000-2010 and its influence on the number of Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit （TEU）. Because it has been applied the DEA-CCR （the linear programming model） model input oriented, thus not only the efficiency is calculated in ports, but benchmarking is also obtained to determine the efficient ports that serve as reference to those who were found to be inefficient. The results obtained showed that Manzanillo and Progreso were the most efficient ports. On the other hand, the ports that were not efficient for any of the years reviewed were Mazatlan and Lazaro Cardenas. Generally, public investment has been increasing over the period, and public policies are not designed to allow the ports to have an international projection.     

Mandate-based welfare policies and the effect on real wage – The case of Taiwan

This study estimates the relationship between statutory welfare programs and workers’ compensation. Employing monthly macroeconomic data from 1982 to 2016 and wage rates in several private industrial sectors in Taiwan, the relationships between pay variations and policy interventions are explored after controlling for the economic growth rate, labor productivity, and time fixed effects. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) were adopted in the panel analyses. The findings of this study suggest that social welfare policies have negative effects on employees’ wage rates. The magnitudes of the effects are directly linked to the burden borne by the employers. National Health Insurance has the greatest negative effects on workers’ pay in all selected industrial sectors. The statutory welfare benefits explain approximately 23% of the pay deviation from the trend predicted by the models. A non-payroll-based financing method could be considered in the future to alleviate this impact.     

Permanent shocks and forecasting with moving averages

Moving averages are a common method of forecasting futures basis. We argue that the optimal lengths of moving averages depend on the frequency of structural breaks. A new stochastic time-series process including structural breaks is modelled by discrete probability distributions that capture the frequency and size of structural breaks. A permanent shock (means structural breaks in this article) is captured by a Poisson-jump or a Bernoulli-jump process, and a temporary shock is represented by a white noise process. Futures basis data are used to estimate the frequency of permanent shocks as well as the size of both shocks. Most shocks are permanent shocks. Since most shocks are permanent, the most recent year provides the best forecast and the optimal length of the moving average is one.     

Metafrontier frameworks for the study of firm-level efficiencies and technology ratios

This paper uses the concept of a metafrontier to compare the technical efficiencies of firms that may be classified into different groups. The paper presents the basic analytical framework necessary for the definition of a metafrontier, shows how a metafrontier can be estimated using non-parametric and parametric methods, and presents an empirical application using cross-country agricultural sector data. The paper also explores the issues of technological change, time-varying technical inefficiency, multiple outputs, different efficiency orientations, and firm heterogeneity.     

高校微博话题的情感分析

微博是现在深受欢迎的信息交流平台,其中包括着大量的学生用户。作为对高校学生舆情监控的一个方面,通过数据挖掘的方法对微博话题进行情感分析,在高校掌控学生信息交流状况、预见话题演变趋势等工作上都能够起到很大的作用。     

Does decentralization contribute to efficiency? Evidence from OECD countries

This article provides evidence on the relationship between fiscal decentralization and technical efficiency. We begin the first stage of this study with a data envelopment analysis to obtain technical efficiency estimates for a sample of 23 OECD countries over the period 1992–2009. In a second stage, we explore the effects of fiscal decentralization and other control variables on technical efficiency. The results including all the control variables reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between fiscal decentralization of public expenditure and technical efficiency.