Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

Giving up an independent monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate are the key aspects of joining a monetary union. In this paper we analyse how joining the euro area would have affected the Polish business cycle during the recent financial crisis. To this end we construct a small open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Poland and the euro area. Then we run a counterfactual simulation, assuming Poland's euro area accession in 1q2007. The results are striking — volatilities of GDP and inflation increase substantially. In particular, had Poland adopted the euro, GDP growth would have oscillated between − 6% and + 9% (− 9% to + 11% under more extreme assumptions) instead of between 1% and 7%. We conclude that during the analysed period independent monetary policy and, in particular, the flexible exchange rate played an important stabilizing role for the Polish economy.     

Is it better to be mixed in group lending?

This paper shows that, in a group‐lending scheme with joint liability, a microfinance institution can achieve a Pareto improvement by promoting negative assortative matching among borrowers. The main results are: (i) borrowers may be better off in heterogeneous groups; and (ii) a heterogeneous group equilibrium is possible when individual or homogeneous group equilibria do not exist.     

Is it China that leads the Asian stock market contagion in 2015?

This article examines the influence of China B-share aggregates on major Asian stock market aggregates during 2015 China crash. Results indicate the China market shows strong negative impact and is highly responsible for leading most markets down during the crash.     

Is it the wage premium that targets worker turnovers?

The literature on FDI shows that there exists a wage premium that multinational enterprises (MNEs) pay to local workers and link this to a technology spillover argument. The MNEs pay higher wages to prevent worker turnovers and technology leakages. Literature relates the wage premium aspect of FDI using worker mobility data and uses worker turnovers and the technology spillover argument. We relate stock options in the FDI context of worker mobility and find in a simplified framework that the turnover of workers would depend on the relative payments of stock options.     

Union decline in Britain: does gender have anything to do with it?

The paper examines if workplace gender diversity offers some explanation for the decline of unions in Britain. Using the WERS2004 linked employer–employee data and alternative econometric estimators it reports an inverse relationship between workplace union density and gender diversity. Gender and ownership status based sub‐group analyses suggest the inverse relationship to be stronger for male union members and those in the private sector. Gender group size‐based analysis reveals a positive link between workplace union density and gender diversity in workplaces with a female majority. The findings in this paper may mean that unions may need to embrace the changing workplace demography genuinely to improve their fate.     

New institutional economics: what does it have to offer?

This article discusses the empirical relevance of what is considered two prinicipal contributions to the new institutional economics–the contributions of A. Schotter and O. Williamson – and draw three general conclusions. First, it is argued, on the basis of a comparison of the above mentioned two contributions to new institutional economics, their empirical relevance cannot be discussed in general but must be based on separate analyses of the two contributions and will depend on the institutions which are analysed. Secondly, that it is especially within analyses of consequence and design of institutions that the Williamson-approach to new institutional economics presently has something to offer while there seems to be rather limited possibilities for application of the approach of Schotter. Thirdly, that in their future development, the two contributions can probably both mutually benefit each other and benefit from an integration of elements from other institutional theories.     

Is it Possible to Identify High-Risk Suppliers from Financial Statements?

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Regional debt in monetary unions: Is it inflationary?

This paper studies the inflationary implications of interest bearing regional debt in a monetary union. Is this debt simply backed by future taxation with no inflationary consequences? Or will the circulation of region debt induce monetization by a central bank?We argue here that both outcomes can arise in equilibrium. In the model economy, there are multiple equilibria which reflect the perceptions of agents regarding the manner in which the debt obligations will be met. In one equilibrium, termed Ricardian, the future obligations are met with taxation by a regional government while in the other, termed Monetization, the central bank is induced to print money to finance the region's obligations. The multiplicity of equilibria reflects a commitment problem of the central bank. A key indicator of the selected equilibrium is the distribution of regional debt holdings. We show that regional governments, anticipating central bank financing of their debt obligations, have an incentive to create excessively large deficits. We use the model to assess the impact of some policy measures within a monetary union as well as dollarization.